全球一次能源消费里，80% 以上来自化石燃料。这些能量最终只有三分之一变成了有用的功或者热。剩下那些，在开采、精炼、运输、燃烧、怠速的过程中，散成了废热。
这是特斯拉 2023 投资者日开场摆出的第一个数字。马斯克和动力总成与能源高级副总裁 Drew Baglino 一起讲了将近四十分钟，想说明一件事：把整个地球切换到可持续能源，需要的总能量比现在少一半。
他们算了一笔完整的账，从太阳能板需要多少土地，到挖矿会不会掏空地球，再到十万亿美元的投资到底算不算大。结论是：这条路径在物理上是通的，在资源上是够的，在钱上也不算夸张。
这场发布会的信息量太大了。从电池化学到工厂节拍，从 48 伏低压架构到人形机器人的执行器，二十几位高管轮番上台。下面按主题拆开讲。
燃烧这件事，浪费了地球一半的能源
先看马斯克反复强调的那个效率问题。
一辆汽油车，汽油里的能量只有不到三分之一转化成前进的动能，其余变成热量散掉。如果算上把石油从地里抽出来、炼成汽油、再运到加油站的能耗，最后真正推动车往前走的能量，不到原油总能量的 20%。
所以，当有人估算"让全世界完成电动化需要多少能源"时，往往直接拿今天的化石能源消耗量当基数。这个基数本身就虚高。电气化经济在每一个环节都更省：发电端效率高，输电损耗小，电机把电能转成动能的效率超过 90%。
169 拍瓦时（PWh）的年一次能源消费，换成全电气化文明，能量需求直接砍半。Baglino 说这个假设甚至偏保守：
在电气化经济里，你需要的能量大约是燃烧经济的二分之一。我们做假设时尽量合理，不做过分的乐观估计，实际上略微悲观了一点。真实的数字可能比一半还好。（Drew Baglino）
这场发布会的核心论点：问题比很多人想象的更容易解决。马斯克说了一句很直白的话：
大多数我认识的聪明人都看不到这条清晰的路径。他们认为不存在通往可持续能源未来的路，或者至少在我们目前的人口规模下不存在，或者我们得诉诸某些极端手段。这些都不是真的。（马斯克）
十万亿美元，摊到二十年是全球 GDP 的 0.5%
整套方案需要的储能是 240 太瓦时（TWh），车用电池和电网级固定储能合计。配套的发电功率约 30 太瓦。
Baglino 说，他们内部按实际制造成本算出来的资本支出大约 6 万亿美元，对外公布时上调到了 10 万亿。这个数字覆盖采矿、精炼、电池工厂、回收、整车工厂，所有环节。
听起来很大。放进全球经济的尺度里：全世界一年的经济总量接近 100 万亿美元。这笔钱分十年花，占全球 GDP 的 1%；分二十年花，占 0.5%。
换个角度更直观。全球每年投在化石燃料基础设施上的钱，比建这套可持续能源体系所需的还多 40%。继续维持旧系统，账面上比换一套新系统更贵。
土地也不是问题。风光发电需要的土地不到地球陆地面积的 0.2%。今天全球集约农业用地是陆地面积的 12.5%，相差一个数量级以上。这些地可以放在人口稀少的荒漠地区，不需要占用农田、森林或者生态保护区。
马斯克补了一个常被忽略的物理事实：太阳辐射到地面的功率大约是每平方公里一吉瓦。乘个四五倍换算成连续功率，需要的太阳能板面积比大多数人直觉里的要小得多。风电场还能和光伏叠在同一块地上，等于土地利用率翻倍。
挖矿会变少，这件事和大多数人的直觉相反
转向可持续能源，大家第一反应是要挖更多矿。Baglino 在台上专门强调了两遍：
最终，为了建成这套经济，我们要开采的矿石比现在的化石能源经济更少。是更少，不是更多。（Drew Baglino）
今天全世界每年从地下挖出的矿石大约 680 亿吨。切换到可持续能源之后，化石燃料那部分开采完全消失，替换成电池、电机、光伏所需的金属。总量反而下降。
具体到锂，马斯克说了一句容易让人吃惊的话：美国的锂储量，足够把全地球的车都电动化，前提是美国是唯一的锂产地。锂是地球上最常见的元素之一。
真正的瓶颈在精炼。把锂矿石变成电池级的氢氧化锂或者碳酸锂，这一段的产能全球都不够。所以特斯拉自己在德州科珀斯克里斯蒂建了一座年产 50 吉瓦时的锂精炼厂。
镍是最麻烦的一个。按他们的测算，需要动用全球已知镍储量的 30% 左右。但镍只用得着在飞机、远洋船、超长续航的车和卡车这些地方。承担电动化主力的，是铁基电池。铁是地球质量里占比最高的元素，第二位是氧。马斯克开玩笑说，地球本质上就是一颗生锈的泥球，铁不可能用完。
还有一个容易被忽略的变量：回收。等这套体系建成，电池开始循环利用，每年需要新挖的矿石量会再下降一个数量级。
五个领域，几个和直觉不一致的判断
Master Plan 3 把工作分成五块：用可再生能源重造电网、全面转向电动车、用热泵替代建筑和工业供暖、用高温储热和少量绿氢解决重工业、给飞机和船舶找可持续燃料。
几个细节值得单独拎出来。
热泵是投资回报最低垂的果实。目前热泵只满足全球 10% 的建筑供暖需求，年装机增长 10%。它能覆盖 200 摄氏度以下的所有应用，能耗只有传统供暖的三分之一。原理上，热泵不产生热，它搬运热，本质是一台反向运行的空调或者冰箱。全球变暖背景下，这件事的性价比高得离谱。
马斯克被问到会不会做家用热泵，回答是"也许吧，说不定"。
重工业需要另一种解法。超过一半的工业用热在 400 摄氏度以上，水泥、钢铁、化肥、化工、塑料、金属精炼普遍需要 1500 摄氏度。光伏和风机发出来的电不能直接烧，所以要专门设计电加热设备。碳和石墨能稳定到 2800 摄氏度，碳化硅这类材料可以覆盖 1500 摄氏度。思路是在可再生电力富余的时段制造并储存热量，然后 24 小时不间断地把热量送进工业流程。
氢只用在必要的地方。今天全球有约 1.2 亿吨氢来自化石燃料，主要用于炼钢和化工。绿氢可以直接还原铁，替代高炉。马斯克对氢燃料车的态度一如既往：
我的个人观点是，氢在交通领域不会有什么实质性的用途。如果你要用化学燃料，应该用甲烷，而不是氢。氢只在工业流程里是必需的，而且它基本上就是电解水，这个技术已经做了几十年了，不是什么火箭科技。（马斯克）
他顺带讲了个有意思的推论：火星大气是二氧化碳，地表到处是水冰，把 CO2 和 H2O 变成 CH4 和 O2，加电就能完成。所以连火箭理论上都能"电动化"，燃料在别处用绿电制好就行。
船比飞机好办。航运占全球碳排放的 3%。磷酸铁锂电池的能量密度已经足够支撑长途货轮全面电动化。飞机短途今天就能做，长途需要重新设计机体架构，把电池做成结构件，配上大约 450 瓦时每公斤的电池。这个能量密度今天市面上买得到，只是贵，价格会降下来。
从增长倍数看，需要的扩张并不夸张。风光装机需要增长约 3 倍，太阳能 2022 年的部署增速已经是同比 50%。电动车需要增长 11 倍，而 2022 年全球电动车产量同比增长 59%，市场份额首次突破 10%。储能方面，特斯拉自己的储能业务从 2016 年至今复合年增长率是 65%。
造车流程：从流水线到"拆箱"
第二部分由设计负责人 Franz von Holzhausen 和车辆工程高级副总裁 Lars Moravy 主讲。两人合作了十三年。
Franz 回忆 2008 年刚加入时的情形：那时候特斯拉没有工厂，设计团队只有几个人，工程师也没几个。正因为什么都没有，设计反而主导了所有讨论。七座轿车怎么塞进一个轿车车身、门把手怎么藏进车门里、中控放一块巨大的触摸屏，这些在今天看来平常的东西，当时都是从这里出来的。2013 年 Model S 拿到《Motor Trend》年度车。
但那个流程是线性的：先设计，再工程，最后才想怎么造。Lars 形容当时是"一边开飞机一边装翅膀、造发动机"。等到 Model 3，三个团队终于能同时工作，中途却把制造流程改成了全自动化，结果撞进了"生产地狱"。
Lars 说了一句很实在的话：把一个本来按手工装配设计的零件拿去自动化，难度高得离谱。弗里蒙特工厂拆掉了很多失败的自动化设备，也有少数活到了今天，而且跑得比当年还快。
到了 Cybertruck，顺序反过来了。先定制造工艺，材料决定设计。冷轧不锈钢不能按传统方式冲压成曲面，只能做很线性的折弯。这反而带来了两个好处：不用冲压，不用喷漆，工厂占地一下子小了很多。
传统汽车工厂的一百年没怎么变过。冲压、焊成白车身、喷漆、总装。Lars 在台上放了一段动画演示这个流程，然后吐槽：先把门装上，喷完漆再把门拆下来，人从门洞里钻进去装内饰，装完再把门装回去。整个过程里，车大部分时间在被搬来搬去，什么也没干。
挺有意思的是，丰田最近把 Model Y 的总装称为"工程艺术的杰作"。这话让人受宠若惊，但在特斯拉，这还不够好。（Lars Moravy）
新的思路叫"拆箱式装配"。车的六个面分别独立制造、独立喷漆、独立测试，最后只拼一次。内饰从上方或者下方整体送入，机械臂和人都有充分的操作空间。Lars 给的数字是：操作密度提升 44%，时空效率提升 30%，工厂占地减少 40% 以上，成本最多降 50%。
他管这叫"二换一"：同样的产出，一半的投入。这也是马斯克在财报电话会上反复提的概念。
下一代车长什么样，两人都守口如瓶。Franz 只说"你们得相信我们，我们一直以来都在交付令人兴奋的产品"。
下一代动力总成：稀土归零，碳化硅减 75%
动力总成负责人 Colin Campbell 上台先秀了一把：Model S Plaid 超过一千马力，单位重量功率和喷气发动机相当。同级别电动车里，特斯拉的能效高出 25% 到 30%。
他讲的重点是一个词：效率，但含义比"省电"宽得多。Model 3 和 Model Y 的动力总成从 2017 年量产至今，同样功率下驱动单元轻了 20%，重稀土用量减少 25%，而制造它的工厂面积缩小 75%，成本降低 65%。
做到这些靠的是垂直整合。逆变器里的晶体管封装是自研的，散热能力是市面外购件的两倍，这意味着里面那块昂贵的碳化硅晶圆可以做得更小。控制这些晶体管开关的微处理器也是自研的，原本需要四颗芯片的工作，现在一颗做完，成本减半。
再往下是软件。电机里转子和定子之间的旋转磁场，特斯拉用自己写的仿真软件来算。市面上买得到这类工具，但自研的更快也更准，可以在几百万种设计方案里快速筛选。
这些积累都指向下一代动力总成。Colin 给出的三个数字是：
- 碳化硅用量减少 75%，性能不打折
- 驱动单元成本降到 1000 美元左右，其他车厂离这个数字还很远
- 下一代永磁电机完全不用稀土
第三条尤其关键。全球能源转型会推高稀土需求，而稀土开采本身有环境和健康代价。做出完全不用稀土的永磁电机，等于把这个风险从供应链里彻底删掉。
新动力总成还兼容任何电池化学体系。这给了采购端极大的灵活性，哪种电池便宜、哪种供应稳定，就用哪种。
48 伏：一个六十年没动过的数字
Pete Bannon 和 David Lau 讲的是看不见的部分：低压系统和软件。
2012 年的 Model S 有三百多个低压器件，从手套箱的灯到安全气囊、线控转向、线控刹车。线束是工人一根一根剪、压、插进连接器，手工活，容易出错，规模一上来就崩。
Model 3 开始自研控制器，线束比 Model S 少了 17 公斤。Lars 有个说法：谁能给车减掉一公斤，他就送一瓶好酒到工位上。这一项让他破费不少。
Cybertruck 上，85% 的控制器由特斯拉自己设计。下一代平台要做到 100%。
2022 年完成的另一件事是把铅酸 12 伏电池换成锂离子。Pete 说得很直白：这块电池的寿命和整车一样长，所以"没电打不着火"这件事可以从车上彻底消失。新的连接器不需要工具，维修更方便，装没装到位由软件验证。
然后是整车电压从 12 伏升到 48 伏。这个数字六十年没变过。车内用电功率一路上涨，已经需要承载 200 安培以上的粗线缆。电压提到四倍，同样功率下电流降到四分之一。线损和电流的平方成正比，所以损耗降到十六分之一。线更细，保险丝更小，控制器更小，散热器很多时候可以直接不用。
还有一个结构变化：控制器从集中式改为分布式。每个用电器接到最近的控制器，控制器之间用以太网通信。Cybertruck 上大部分横穿全车的线已经消失，下一代平台要彻底清零。
线少了，制造才可能自动化。48 伏真正的意义在这里：它主要是为了把车造得更快更便宜，省电只是附带效果。
软件定义硬件，数据定义设计
David Lau 讲的是软件和数据怎么反过来改变硬件设计。
他们发现一件小事：通过车联网数据看到，车主几乎从不打开天窗。于是天窗被取消了。这个决定做得很轻松。
更严肃的应用在碰撞安全。监管和消费者测试规定的碰撞工况就那么几种，特斯拉用车队回传的真实碰撞数据来设计约束系统，然后把每一次设计变更都在仿真里重跑一遍真实世界的碰撞。去年一项安全带预紧算法的改动，就是靠这些数据做出来的，最后通过 OTA 推给所有车，减少了实际事故中的伤害。
每天从车队收到的数据量：1.23 亿英里行驶，190 万次充电，还在涨。
他们把软件能力用在了制造上。Model 3 之后，装配线上的每一个连接动作，中央计算机会确认零件型号对不对、插到位没有、需不需要刷固件，然后跑一轮测试。发现问题立刻在屏幕上报警，同时通知后台，让人赶在下一道工序盖上去之前处理掉。
售后端也一样。车载诊断、对客户描述做自然语言处理、加上内部自研的工具，超过 33% 的服务需求可以自动完成诊断、排期和订件。
还有一个面向未来的铺垫：手机钥匙共享、账号配置云端同步、服务代步车自动加入客户账户。客户走到代步车旁边，车里的座椅、后视镜、电台、导航记录全是自己的。这套东西是给自动驾驶车队准备的：同步、权限、安全、隐私。
FSD：架构、数据、算力，三件事都得对
自动驾驶负责人 Ashok Elluswamy 2014 年加入，做这件事快九年了。
他先回答了那个必然会被问的问题：自动驾驶和可持续能源计划有什么关系？
答案在资产利用率。今天的私家车一周只开十到十二个小时，剩下的时间都在停车场里贬值。自动驾驶真正跑通之后，同一辆车一周可以工作五六十个小时。整个社会的车队规模因此可以缩小，造车的压力也就小了。
他把这件事拆成三块。
架构。早期是单摄像头、单帧的神经网络，输出结果再用后处理拼起来。这套东西很脆，怎么也做不好。现在整个技术栈换成了多摄像头视频网络，八个摄像头的画面实时输入，输出一个统一的 3D 空间。障碍物、运动、车道、路口、红绿灯，都在这个空间里。车道之间的连通关系这类任务，用上了和大语言模型同源的技术：Transformer、注意力机制、token 的自回归建模。规划器也开始用神经网络，一个复杂路口的博弈被压缩进 50 毫秒的计算预算里，实时跑完。
数据。车队能提供数据是特斯拉的独特优势，但原始视频不能直接拿来训练，得有标注。人工标注撑不起这种规模的模型，所以建了一条自动标注流水线：把不同车辆拍到的片段拼成同一片区域的统一 3D 表示，车道、路沿、人行道、斑马线、路面文字全部重建出来。在此基础上还能做仿真，合成恶劣天气、极端光照，甚至改变其他交通参与者的"意图"，把现实中罕见的边角案例批量造出来。
他举了个具体例子。过去车辆会对路边停着的车误刹车，因为系统不确定那辆车会不会突然起步。解决办法是从车队里挖出 14000 段类似场景加入训练集，重新训练之后，网络学会了判断"车里没有驾驶员，所以它是停着的"，误刹车消失。
这个循环叫数据引擎：发现难例，挖掘数据，自动标注，加入训练，部署上车，再来一轮。每加一次数据，指标就往上走一截。
算力。车端计算机算力 150 TOPS。后台是一个 14000 张 GPU 的集群，30% 用于自动标注，70% 用于训练，配 30 PB 的视频缓存，正在扩到 200 PB。Dojo 上线后这些数字还会跳一大截。作为参照，光是前面提到的占用网络（occupancy network），训练就用了 14 亿帧。
成果：FSD Beta 已经推送给美国和加拿大几乎所有购买该功能的用户，大约 40 万人。车能自己完成转弯、识别红绿灯停车、避让其他交通参与者，把人送到目的地，全程仍需要监督。
Ashok 给了一个数据：
我们观察到，使用 FSD 的用户已经比美国全国平均水平安全 5 到 6 倍。（Ashok Elluswamy）
Optimus：车是轮子上的机器人，这是腿上的机器人
马斯克回到台上放了一段 Optimus 的视频。一年前的 AI Day 上，那台原型机根本不能动。现在它能在工厂里走，有多个副本，只是动作还谈不上优美。
他讲的核心优势只有一条：真实世界的人工智能。车是轮子上的机器人，Optimus 是腿上的机器人，同一套计算机和软件可以直接搬过去。
执行器全部自研。电机、齿轮箱、电力电子、电池包，一样外购都没有。马斯克说，他们本来以为市面上能买到现成的电机和减速器，找了一圈，发现没有任何一个能用在人形机器人上，一个都没有。于是设计 Model S Plaid 电机的那批人，转过来设计了机器人的执行器。
"特斯拉擅长为制造而设计，也擅长制造本身"，这句话在这件事上体现得最彻底。
至于规模，马斯克给了一个很马斯克的推演：人形机器人和人类的比例可能超过一比一。因为家庭有需求，工业有需求。到了那个阶段，经济学的定义会变得很奇怪。经济产出等于人均产出乘以人数，如果产出可以极高，人数不再受限，那经济的上限在哪里？
他补了一句：这块业务目前是特斯拉最不被理解的部分，但长期看，价值可能显著超过汽车业务。
充电网络：成本比同行低 20% 到 70%
充电基础设施负责人 Rebecca Tinucci 给了一组数据。2022 年特斯拉向车主提供了 9 太瓦时充电，一半以上来自家用交流桩。全球 8 万个充电点，其中 4 万个是超级充电桩。
过去十年，行业里没什么人愿意建充电网络，特斯拉自己建了。现在的结果是部署成本比替代方案低 20%，某些情况下低 70%。原因还是垂直整合：设备自己设计自己造，不同产品线共用零件，超充站自己安装自己运营。
最近的一个创新是把制造思维搬到了建站上。在纽约工厂里预先把四桩一组的单元装好，卡车运到现场，吊车吊装到位。这一招省了 15% 的部署成本，一个站点几天就能装完。
运营端的数字：过去几年每千瓦时成本下降 40%，站点利用率提升 30%，等待时间缩短一半。这两件事本来是矛盾的，能同时做到靠的是路径规划系统。别的车厂有车端数据，别的充电运营商有站点数据，特斯拉两边都有。导航会把车流引向空闲站点，避开拥堵。下一步要做到预测：根据正在驶向某个站点的车辆，提前判断那个站会不会排队。
开放网络是另一个方向。欧洲超过一半的超充已经向其他品牌开放，亚太从澳洲开始，北美前十个站点在发布会前一天刚刚开放。其他品牌的车主只要在特斯拉 App 里登录就能充电。硬件上加了"魔法底座"（Magic Dock）适配器，第四代超充桩的线缆也加长了，方便不同位置充电口的车。
还有一个长期的算盘：让充电需求和可再生能源的出力对上。加州的太阳能中午最猛，德州的风半夜最强。所以要在车辆白天停放的地方大量铺设低成本的交流慢充桩。这既是电网的需要，也是车主省钱的需要。
供应链：完美只是及格
供应链负责人 Karn Budhiraj 和 Roshan Thomas 讲的这part，信息密度很高。
特斯拉的供应链不是纯粹的商业关系。有一个叫"供应商工业化工程"的团队，拿到一张图纸，把它变成量产方案，选设备，然后整个团队飞到供应商的工厂里住上几周甚至几个月，直到产线跑通、良率达标。这些人拿的是特斯拉的工资。
全球大约一万家工厂在为特斯拉供货，这些工厂的健康状况在仪表盘上实时可见。用 Karn 的话说，供应是"完美只是及格"的游戏。任意一个零件没到，产线就停，CEO 二十分钟内就会知道。
复杂度到底有多高？他举了车载电脑的例子。两块双面八层的电路板，一块是自动驾驶板，一块是多媒体板，中间夹着液冷散热器，密封成一个整体，刷好软件，作为一个零件号送进工厂。里面七千多个元件，产线上每 1.4 毫秒贴装一个，产线长度有一个足球场那么长。
这条线最初靠大量人工，跑顺之后开始减人，再往后是全自动，终极目标是关灯运行。
物流规模：去年一年从供应商运到工厂的托盘有 1600 万个，排起来能绕地球半圈。每周流转的电子元件 10 亿个，一年 220 亿。685 个服务中心需要准点收到零件。
过去三年他们经历了一整套灾难：疫情、各国封锁、西海岸港口拥堵、芯片短缺。港口拥堵时，船舶到港时间预测的准确率不到 35%，系统里 75% 的 ETA 是错的。芯片短缺时，特斯拉的产量在涨，整个行业在收缩。
应对办法有三个。一是深度介入二级、三级供应商，很多关系是十年前就建立的，出了事知道该找谁。二是双源、三源，45 个国家都有供应商。三是产能规划前置，二级供应商的产能必须比一级更早上线，三级还要更早。
芯片够不够用？Karn 算了一笔账。一辆搭载 FSD 电脑的特斯拉，硅含量是普通车的四倍。年产 200 万辆时，消耗约 70 万片 12 英寸晶圆当量。全球晶圆产能大约 1.35 亿片，占比不到 0.5%。
年产 2000 万辆时，假设完全不做架构简化，最悲观估计需要 800 万片，而届时行业产能预计到 2 亿片，占比不到 5%。所以，"特斯拉会把芯片行业吃垮"这个担心不成立。
还有一个案例值得单独说。热泵系统里的"超级歧管"，把 100 个零件、50 个密封界面、好几种制造工艺塞进一个篮球大小的体积里。这个零件在疫情最严重的时候量产，团队没法去供应商现场，只能远程管着全球一百多个零件。先做手工线，质量一塌糊涂；换半自动线，产能上来了质量还是不行；最后决定全自动化。
动工之前先在 3D 仿真里把整条线建了一遍，和供应商的厂房布局拼在一起反复迭代。结果八个月建成全自动线：人力减少 99%，原本需要 1000 人的产线现在只要 10 个人，缺陷率低于 0.05%，每 7 秒下线一个。厂房面积两个足球场。
Karn 说这就是他们打算推向整个供应链的思路。劳动力成本在涨，劳动参与率在降，人员流动率高，而自动化的成本十年内会降三倍。
上海速度与 45 秒节拍
全球生产负责人、同时也是大中华区负责人的 Tom Zhu 讲工厂。
目前四个整车厂分布在三个大洲，制造员工超过 6.5 万人，总产能约每年 200 万辆。交付数字上，第一个一百万辆花了 12 年，第二个 18 个月，第三个 11 个月，第四个不到 7 个月。第四百万辆在发布会当天早上刚刚下线。
上海工厂从一片空地到投产用了九个半月，三个月后开始交付客户。怎么做到的？Tom 说他们找了经历过"生产地狱"的人复盘，把所有犯过的错误列出来避开。设计上做成一条直线，尽量减少上下坡和转弯，方便施工也方便生产。所有不必要的缓冲和冗余全部删掉。施工是自己人干的，从设计、工程到现场管理全部自有团队，这个团队后来还建了柏林、德州和内华达。
衡量工厂的两个指标：整体设备效率（OEE）和节拍。特斯拉的标准是 OEE 90%，节拍 45 秒，也就是每 45 秒有一辆车从总装线下线。
降本的办法还是那套顺序：删除、简化、加速、最后才谈自动化。上海喷漆车间发现 PVC 密封胶和面漆的烘烤温度区间有重叠，本来是两道工序两个烤炉，合并之后节拍缩短，能耗和碳排放各降 9%。弗里蒙特把 Model S 和 Model X 的车身、大灯做成共用的，减掉 40 个零件，节拍缩短 10%。柏林工厂在车间里铺了 5G 专网，解决了总装某道工序 90% 的超时问题，这套方案接下来会推到全球。
把所有工厂放进一个组织管理，好处是新工厂能直接复制老工厂的经验，爬产更快，质量更好，成本更低。
干电极和两座材料工厂
Baglino 回来讲电池。
电池日上那个"从干粉直接变成电极膜"的视频，当时被调侃成变魔术。这次他说：没有勺子了。德州工厂里的干电极产线全自动运行，粉末和箔进去，涂层电极出来，单台设备的产能是当年展示设备的二十倍以上。
电池工厂的形态也在变。从 2170 圆柱电池到 4680，工厂的占地面积和体积缩小到五分之一。从弗里蒙特的试产线到德州，再改进一轮；到内华达还会再改进。背后是产品设计、制造设计、工艺设计、设备设计、厂房设计五个团队坐在一起做。结果是工厂体积小十倍，单位吉瓦时产能的资本支出大幅下降。
上游材料也在自己做。德州科珀斯克里斯蒂的锂精炼厂，年产 50 吉瓦时，从破土到开始调试目标十个月，十二个月内出产品。工艺用的是直接苏打灰浸出，跳过了酸焙烧，也就没有对应的废料问题。原料主要是锂辉石，也能处理其他来源。厂址离港口半小时，铁路直连。
旁边是年产 60 吉瓦时的阴极材料工厂，同样是十个月建成，第一条线的设备正在安装，下个季度开始调试。
Baglino 强调，特斯拉做这些是被迫的。这些环节本该由专业公司来做，但美国本土几乎没有大规模阴极材料产能，速度也跟不上。"如果别人能做，我们更希望别人做。我们做，是因为必须做。"而且一旦验证成功，这些工艺会分享给现有的供应商。
Megapack：一块电池怎么变成一座电厂
Megapack 业务负责人 Mike Snyder 讲储能。
产品已经迭代到第六代，Megapack XL，在加州拉思罗普工厂生产。全球 50 个国家部署了超过 16 吉瓦时的工业和住宅储能产品。XL 是能在公共道路上运输的最大最重的物体，再大就得封路办特殊许可了。所以他明确说：不会有 XXL。
产品设计上有一些很实在的细节。线槽直接集成在机柜底座里，现场不用再挖沟埋管，吊装到位就能接线，安装更快更便宜。电力电子部分是整个产品的核心，出厂就能接入世界上任何一个电网，同一个站点上的所有 Megapack 协同工作像一个单元。
能量密度是每英亩 300 兆瓦时以上，是典型燃气调峰电站的两倍功率密度。
特斯拉在储能和车辆上累计部署了 1.4 太瓦的电力电子设备，按功率算，比光伏和风电行业加起来还多。这些设备每秒开关成千上万次，因为核心是软件驱动的，能提供电网过去没有的功能。
一个例子是"虚拟电机模式"。它让电池储能电站通过软件模拟出一台巨大的旋转电机的惯性，抑制电网振荡，作用类似汽车的减震器。有一家电网运营商明确表示，如果没有这个功能，他们不会让电网在 100% 可再生能源下运行。
另一个是 Autobidder，自动能源交易平台。电池储能的运营极其复杂，每五分钟要做几百上千个决策，比光伏电站或者火电站复杂得多。市场上没有现成方案，特斯拉自己写了一个，在澳洲、德州、英国都是市场领先。
速度方面，拉思罗普工厂原来是一个百货公司的配送中心，不到 12 个月改造成世界级制造基地。项目安装速度四年提升四倍，总劳动量减少三倍。
再往下是分布式储能和零售电力。特斯拉电力（Tesla Electric）在南澳运营一个虚拟电厂，5000 户家庭的样本数据很能说明问题。如果这些家庭用默认电力服务，每月电费约 140 美元。如果他们装了光伏和 Powerwall 但不参与电力市场，电费降到 70 美元。如果由特斯拉的软件智能调度这些资产去帮助电网，不仅电费更低，还能反过来给客户付钱。
南澳 2022 年 70% 的电力来自风光，德州是 30%，加州是 35%。南澳代表的是未来。
德州今年夏天要推出的方案是：有特斯拉车的用户，每月 30 美元，夜间在家无限充电。德州的风电夜里最猛，让车主在夜里充电，对电网、对车主、对可再生能源消纳都是最优解。
财务：50% 的成本削减和 60% 的 OPEX 削减
最后是 CFO Zach Kirkhorn。
Model 3 在 2018 年中达到每周 5000 辆的设计产能，之后成本又降了 30%。这中间的难点在于，降本的同时产品还得变好。今天下线的 Model 3 和 2018 年那批相比，改进项列出来是一长串。
下一代车的目标是成本再降 50%。上一次从 Model S/X 平台切换到 3/Y 平台，降的也是 50%。
降本不来自某一个地方。电池和动力总成、制造成本、其他项，三个桶大小差不多，每一块都得动。
更关键的是使用成本。按五年周期算每英里总拥有成本，包含融资、保险、电费、维护，美国市场的基础版 Model 3 已经低于丰田卡罗拉，而卡罗拉是全球销量最高的车型。下一代平台加上自动驾驶出租车版本，这个数字还会往下走。
运营费用这块，2018 年至今，非 GAAP 运营费用占收入的比例下降 60%，按每辆交付车算下降 75%。
销售及管理费用按每辆车算，比传统车企加上经销商网络低 60% 到 70%，折算成美元是每辆车几千美元的差距。这就是为什么 Zach 说他更关注营业利润率而不是毛利率。
这个变化不是自然发生的。Model 3 爬产到每周 7000 辆的时候，前端在生产地狱，后端同时在经历"后台运营地狱"。Zach 说，当时的目标是年产 2000 万辆，却在 7000 辆/周这个数字上挣扎，必须彻底重做后台系统。
他们的做法叫"特斯拉操作系统"：公司几乎所有的核心部门都改用自研软件。最近刚把第三方招聘系统换掉，用自己写的。理由是通用的第三方系统要花大量精力定制，自研的轻量工具只做需要做的事。
效果是，北美销售团队的效率比 2018 年提升四倍。保险业务完全垂直整合，自有代理、自理赔软件、自配理赔人员。财务团队提交 10-Q 和 10-K 的速度，在全球市值前 20 的公司里排得上最快的那一档。
要达成 2000 万辆年产能加 1 太瓦时储能，累计投资估算下来，公司历史上已经花了约 280 亿美元。Zach 认为这个总数相对野心来说不算大，靠 2022 年的运营现金流加上适度增长就能覆盖。
资本配置的顺序也很清楚：日常运营周转、下行保护、增长投资、机会性投资、最后才是回购或者分红。
墨西哥工厂，和 Q&A 里的几个真实回答
发布会最后一个环节，马斯克宣布下一个超级工厂建在墨西哥蒙特雷附近。他特意强调，所有现有工厂都继续扩产，墨西哥是增量，不从任何地方搬产能。
Q&A 部分有一些不含糊的判断，值得单独拎出来。
需求被什么卡住。马斯克说了一句被引用很多次的话：
人们想拥有一辆特斯拉的欲望极其强烈，这一点是压倒性的。限制因素是他们的支付能力，不是他们想不想要。在这个房间里的人很容易忽略这一点。如果你的收入远高于一辆车的价格，你看的是性价比，根本不会考虑买不买得起。但对绝大多数人来说，这是支付能力的问题。（马斯克）
他还提到一个实测结果：特斯拉过去不确定价格弹性有多大，试下来发现小幅降价对需求的拉动非常明显。
造车难在哪。马斯克说最难的是造车和配套的整个供应链。零件少一个，不管原因是地震、洪水、火灾还是别的什么，整条线就停。有人问为什么不都做三源，他的回答很直接：三个引擎的飞机，任何一个失效都会坠毁。大件没法三源，只能接受一定程度的产能冗余和加急成本。
他顺带解释了为什么电池要故意做多：电池产能低于整车需求，工厂就会停。多出来的电芯怎么办？拿去做 Powerwall 和 Megapack，储能产线的产能调节比整车线容易得多，而且 Megapack 的需求几乎是无限的，资本支出又比整车厂小得多。
双向充电为什么一直没做。特斯拉过去不太积极，被问到原因，回答是：这件事一直没排上优先级。接下来两年电力电子全面换代，会把双向功能带进所有车型。但马斯克补了一句实际考虑：除非家里有 Powerwall，否则把车当电源用意义不大，因为车一拔，房子就黑了。
车型要几款。有人问做到 2000 万辆需要几款车。马斯克的回答是不需要很多款。传统车企的问题是没别的事可做，只能不停改款，"为了变而变"。他拿手机做类比：功能机时代有几百种翻盖机，智能机收敛成了两三种形态。
中国市场怎么看。Tom Zhu 说年初调价之后，需求超出了产能。只要产品有价值、价格可负担，就不担心需求。中国工厂 95% 以上的供应链已经本地化，三级供应商都在国内，3 万多员工里外派人员不到 20 个。
干电极进度。Baglino 说，德州工厂里跑的是真实的量产线，不是实验室项目。阳极和阴极两条线都在推进，进度没有停滞。工厂里甚至同时跑着两种略有不同的最后一道工序，让它们互相竞争，看哪个良率更高。马斯克给团队的规矩是：可以报废设备，可以烧钱，不能浪费时间。内部目标是每季度每周产能提升约 1 千瓦时级别，目前按计划走。今年内规模量产是有可能的。
AI 能不能帮着造车。马斯克说短期内看不到可能，如果真到了那一步，大家都不用上班了。然后他认真表达了一次担忧：
我对 AI 这件事有点担心。我们需要某种监管机构来监督 AI 的发展，确保它在公共利益范围内运行。这是一项相当危险的技术。我可能做了一些加速它发展的事情，这让我……不好说。（马斯克）
他也解释了为什么特斯拉的自动驾驶要用摄像头加数字神经网络：道路系统是为人眼和生物神经网络设计的，模拟它的自然选择就是摄像头加数字神经网络。车里那套网络结构复杂到可视化工具都画不出来，"打开就崩溃"，他形容看起来"疯了一样"。
训练算力怎么扩。今年年底之前提升一个数量级，明年年底再提升一个数量级，英伟达和 Dojo 混用。
这场发布会真正说了什么
通读完整场，最有价值的不是那些大数字，是那些具体的成本拆解和工艺选择。
一辆车从流水线上下来，决定它贵不贵的不是电池一项，是线束长度、控制器数量、焊点数量、工厂占地面积、喷漆次数、零件总数、供应链层级、每一个环节里多余的动作。特斯拉这场发布会讲的就是一件事：把这些多余的动作一个一个找出来删掉。
48 伏是为了减少铜。以太网架构是为了减少线。控制器自研是为了减少芯片。干电极是为了减少工序。一体化压铸是为了减少零件。拆箱式装配是为了减少车身在线上的停留时间。垂直整合供应链是为了减少中间环节。自研后台软件是为了减少管理费用。
这些改动单看都不性感，叠在一起就是 50% 的成本削减，就是每英里使用成本低于全球最畅销的燃油车。
至于 10 万亿美元、240 太瓦时、地球 0.2% 的土地这些数字，马斯克自己说得很清楚，这场发布会想传递的是一个基于物理和真实计算的乐观判断，背后有完整的白皮书和假设可以逐条核对。
不能改进你没测量的东西
Q&A 里有一个问题，问的是特斯拉怎么跟踪学习曲线的速度，怎么把这种能力复制到新领域。
马斯克的回答很短，但很硬：
你没法改进你没有测量的东西。而在特斯拉，我们是一群无情的测量者。一旦你开始测量那些影响运营效率的指标，你实际上就有了一条去改进它的路径。所以核心是有没有一把好的尺子。（马斯克）
这句话能解释这场发布会上大量细节的来源。45 秒的节拍、90% 的 OEE、每辆车分摊的销售管理费用、每个托盘的物流成本、每千瓦时的充电成本、每英里的总拥有成本，都是被量出来的数字，然后才成为被攻击的目标。
反过来看，大部分车企讲不清楚自己一辆车的销售管理费用是多少，因为这部分散落在几百上千家经销商手里。特斯拉能讲，因为它是直销。
这也是整场发布会一个隐含的前提：垂直整合真正的价值，是让所有环节都变得可测量，省钱只是副产品。你控制了设计、制造、销售、服务、充电、保险，才有可能知道每一个环节的真实成本，才有资格谈优化。
关于人和可持续，一段容易被跳过的内容
环境和安全负责人 Lori Shelby 讲的部分，通常是发布会里最容易被快进掉的。但里面有几个数字值得留一下。
特斯拉目前有 12.9 万名员工，一半以上在整车制造，接近 60% 在美国。2021 年收到 300 万份求职申请。她提到一个排名：工程师最想去的公司，第一是 SpaceX，第二是特斯拉。
她讲了一个内部机制叫"take charge"，本质是员工提案制度。任何人在任何时间都可以就安全、人员、成本、生产、质量提出改进建议。她给了一张图：提案数量上升，工伤率下降。理由也很朴素：干活的人最知道怎么改进活。
产品侧的减碳数据：2021 年特斯拉客户累计避免了 840 万吨温室气体，相当于把 170 万辆燃油车从路上撤下来一整年。
还有一个数字很多人不知道。从 2012 年到 2021 年，特斯拉产品（光伏加储能）产生的电量，超过了所有特斯拉车辆加所有工厂消耗的电量总和。公司在能源账上已经是净正的。
至于车本身的排放，Lori 补了一句：即使电网 100% 是煤电，Model 3 的全生命周期排放依然低于美国平均燃油车。而且这个差距只会越拉越大，因为电网在变绿，车在变高效。
她最后提到，公司正在对齐 TCFD（气候相关财务信息披露工作组）框架，完整的 Impact Report 会后续发布。这类承诺听起来枯燥，但对机构投资者来说是硬指标。
为什么下一代车不能只在墨西哥造
有人问，下一代平台会不会先在现有工厂投产，再等墨西哥工厂建好。
Lars 的回答分了两个层次。第一，最深刻的架构变革一定出现在新车型上，因为改造一座工厂意味着把它停掉很长一段时间，这个代价没人愿意付。第二，Model Y 本身已经在不断演进，有后底板一体压铸版本，有前后双压铸加结构电池包的版本，还有一堆小改动在持续发生。
关于时间表，他的说法是"尽我们所能地快，从左到右"。
马斯克补了一句更实际的：墨西哥会造下一代车，其他工厂也会造。下一代平台不止一款车，会覆盖多个细分市场，是"多款车"而不是"一款车"。这和前面那个"不需要很多款车型"的回答并不矛盾：车型少，但每一款要能覆盖足够大的价格带和车身形式。
被问到能不能透露下一代车的尺寸、性能、什么时候能看到原型车，Lars 和马斯克都拒了。理由是会有专门的产品发布会，现在说就是抢跑。这个拒绝本身也是信息：产品形态还没到可以对外锁定的阶段。
3D 重建不是为了做地图，是为了做标注
有人问 Ashok，那套多车片段拼起来的 3D 重建，和 Mobileye 的 REM 地图有什么区别。
这个回答澄清了一个常见误解。很多人看到"车队协同建图"，第一反应是特斯拉在做高精地图。事实相反。
既然我们要建的是一个可扩展的自动驾驶系统，我们就不想依赖高精地图或者类似的东西，尽管用同样的技术我们随随便便就能做出来。这套东西主要是用于自动标注，它为重建过程中涉及的所有视频序列提供精确的 3D 标签。（Ashok Elluswamy）
区别在用途。高精地图是运行时依赖，车要靠它开；自动标注是训练时依赖，模型靠它学。前者一旦地图过期就出问题，后者过期了只是训练数据旧了一点。
这也解释了为什么特斯拉敢把 FSD 推给 40 万人，在任何城市都能打开，不需要事先测绘。
区域差异的答案比想象中统一
有人问，中国的成本结构明显优于弗里蒙特，那今天的降本策略是按区域定制的，还是全球统一的。
Tom Zhu 的回答是：策略一致，执行本地化。上海工厂 95% 以上的供应链本地化，一级、二级、三级供应商都在国内。三万多名员工里外派不到 20 人。长三角有充足的熟练劳动力。这些加起来构成了成本优势。这套本地化打法会往其他工厂复制，只是各地的供应商基础、劳动力市场不一样。
他补了一点：直销模式省下的钱也很可观。公司不投广告、不做营销，省下来的都变成了可以让给消费者的价格空间。
Zach 的回答更有意思，他说方向其实是反的：正在往更高的标准化走。Model Y 时代，每一座工厂都是上一座工厂的增量改进，代价是每座工厂都要投工程资源，最后每座工厂都不太一样。下一代平台要的是"复制粘贴"，第一次就做对，尽量少改。这样才能用最快的速度在全球铺开产能。
Lars 那句"复制粘贴"被 Zach 在台上专门点了出来，这大概是整场发布会里对制造业最有价值的一句话。
那个没人愿意回答的问题，和那个必须回答的问题
整场 Q&A 里，马斯克唯一一次明显不想聊的，是 AI 对造车的帮助。他说短期内看不到可能，如果真到了那一步，大家都不用工作了。
但同一个问题让他主动讲了另一段话，这段话比发布会的任何一张 PPT 都更值得琢磨：
我对 AI 这件事有点担心。我们需要某种监管机构来监督 AI 的发展，确保它在公共利益范围内运行。这是一项相当危险的技术。我可能做了一些加速它发展的事情，这让我……不好说。（马斯克）
说这话的人，同时在做三件事：把最强的真实世界 AI 装进几百万辆车里，造人形机器人，建全球最大的神经网络训练集群之一。他没有回避这个矛盾，只是没有答案。
关于自动驾驶为什么必须用摄像头，他给的理由依然是第一性原理：道路系统是为人眼和生物神经网络设计的，那么最自然的对应物就是摄像头加数字神经网络。他还提到一件有意思的事，车里那套神经网络复杂到可视化工具一打开就崩溃，"看起来疯了一样"。他说，大概我们大脑开车的时候也在跑类似的东西，这挺不可思议的。
把这场发布会压缩成几句话
如果只记三件事：
第一，能源转型的账算得过来。需要的能量是现在的一半，需要的土地不到陆地的 0.2%，需要的投资摊到二十年是全球 GDP 的 0.5%，比继续维持化石燃料体系还便宜。挖矿总量会下降，回收会让它继续下降。这有完整的白皮书和假设，可以逐条核对。
第二，造车的成本还有一半空间。这 50% 来自几十项看起来零碎的改动：48 伏、以太网、控制器全自研、干电极、一体化压铸、拆箱式装配、工厂复制粘贴、供应链下沉到三级。每一项单独看都不足以改变行业，叠在一起就是下一代平台。
第三，真正的杠杆在软件和 AI。同样一辆车，自动驾驶跑通之后一周能工作五六十小时而不是十小时。同样一座工厂，软件定义硬件之后可以少掉几千根线、几百个控制器、无数次返工。同样一块电池，虚拟电机模式让它能替代一座燃气调峰电站。
马斯克在开场说的那句话，其实是整场的主旨：
地球能够、也一定会走向可持续能源经济，而且会在你有生之年实现。（马斯克）
他说这场发布会不只是给股东看的，是给"地球的投资者"看的。
普通读者能拿走什么
看完整场发布会，如果你不是基金经理也不是车企工程师，能带走的东西大概是这样几条：
- 判断一家制造业公司的效率，别只看毛利率，看它敢不敢公开单位指标。每辆车分摊多少销售管理费用、工厂 OEE 多少、节拍多少秒、每千瓦时成本多少。敢公开的，通常是真的在量；不敢公开的，多半自己也没算清。
- 降本的顺序是删除、简化、加速、自动化，不能反过来。这条不只适用于造车。任何流程优化，先问这个步骤能不能删，再问能不能合并，最后才谈提速和上工具。上来就自动化一个本来就多余的环节，是效率最低的做法。
- 垂直整合最值钱的地方是可测量性。当一个环节外包出去，你失去的不只是那部分利润，还有那部分数据。凡是你想优化的环节，最好放在自己手里。
- 看技术路线，先看物理约束，再看行业叙事。摄像头加神经网络这个选择之所以成立，是因为道路是为人眼设计的。48 伏之所以成立，是因为线损和电流的平方成正比。物理约束不会因为行业风向改变。
- 对"资源不够用"这类判断保持怀疑。锂、镍、铁的历史数据都指向同一件事：随着需求上升，探明储量也在上升。真正的瓶颈通常在中间环节，比如精炼产能，而不是地底下有没有。
- 如果你在能源或制造业，关注"中间环节"的创业机会。马斯克在台上直接说了一句：想找稳赚不赔的生意，去做锂、正极、负极或者任何电池材料的精炼。需求确定，技术路径清晰，只是需要有人去干。
- 对 AI 保持两件事同时成立的态度。它确实在解决真实世界最难的问题之一，也确实需要有人认真讨论监管。这两件事不冲突，同时承认它们才是不偷懒的立场。
最后一点私人的观察。这场发布会最不像车企的地方，是它花了大段时间讲线束、讲保险丝、讲 12 伏升 48 伏。这些话题在汽车行业里属于"没人想听"的部分。但恰恰是这些地方，决定了一辆车能不能便宜一半。
真正的护城河很少藏在最亮的地方。
29:20Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon. My name is Zach Kirkhorn. I lead finance here at Tesla and welcome to our investor day. For those of you here in the audience at our Global Headquarters in Austin, Texas, we welcome you. Thank you for being here and thank you for traveling in.
29:48For those joining us virtually, thank you for being a part of the day today. So as we reflect back on the history of the company, There's been distinct phases of product advancement, technology innovation, and rapid volume growth. The most recent of which has been the global expansion and localization of the Model Y program.
30:10And so today, we want to talk about the future. We don't want to talk about this quarter or next quarter. We want to go further out into the future. And we've divided today's presentation into three parts, The first of which, we're going to go macro. What does it take to convert Earth to sustainable energy
30:32generation and use? The second, we want to talk about Tesla's contribution to that global need. We're going to go function by function through the company and you'll meet our entire leadership team. And we're going to get into the details of what those teams are doing as part of the broader goal.
30:54And then in the third part, we're going to bring it back up and talk about what this all means for the company as a whole. So before we get started, statements made in this presentation are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. More details can be found in our written materials.
31:15So with that, let's get started. Part 1, Elon Musk and Drew Baglino.
31:34Master Plan Part 3. So as Zach was mentioning, the thing that I think is we wanted to convey, probably more importantly than anything else that we talked about here, is that there is a clear path to a sustainable energy earth. It's not, it doesn't require destroying natural habitats, it doesn't require us to be austere
32:09and stop using electricity and sort of be in the cold or anything. The story, and I think if this holds together quite well and will be actually publishing detailed white paper with all of our assumptions and calculations, is that there is a clear path to a fully sustainable Earth with abundance.
32:27In fact, you could support a civilization much bigger than Earth, much more than the 8 billion humans could actually be supported sustainably on Earth. And I'm just often shocked and surprised by how few people realize this. Most of the smart people I know actually don't see this clear path.
32:55They think that there's not a path to a sustainable energy future, or at least there's not one that is sustainable at our current population, or that we'd have to resort to extreme measures. None of this is true. So we're going to walk through the calculations for how to create a sustainable energy civilization.
33:24And to set the stage, today, our energy economy, let's be honest, it's sturdy and it's wasteful. Over 80% of global energy, primary energy, comes from fossil fuels. and only one third of that global energy actually ends up delivering useful work or heat. This is the problem statement, but we're here to talk about the solution.
33:44Yeah, it's like, for some of this I'm gonna elaborate because there's a very wide range of technical expertise out there from people who are like, you know, whatever level nine wizards in this subject to people who do not do engineering at all. So if you have a gasoline car, you're converting less than a third, often maybe only 25% of
34:12the energy in the gasoline is converted into motion. The rest is turning to waste heat. That doesn't do any good at all. And there's a lot of energy required even to get the oil out of the ground to refine the oil and to transport the gasoline to the gas station. So when you look at all that, for a typical gasoline car is actually going to be using
34:34less than 20% fully considered of the energy from the oil actually goes into motion. So this is a, when we see people doing calculations for what does it take to create a sustainable energy earth, they assume that the same energy amount is required for an electrified civilization
34:56versus a combustion civilization. This is not true because most of the energy a combustion is waste heat. And even to get the fuel to combust in the first place and get it to the end use, there's a lot lost along the way. I mean, this is the primary energy consumption, 165 petawatt hours a year.
35:16Petawatt hour is a trillion kilowatt hours. So it's a large amount of energy. But the nice thing about electrified economy, There's a better way, we're gonna talk about it, is that through end use efficiency and through efficiency along every step of the way, actually the total energy use, it halves.
35:36So this is one of the most enabling aspects of electrifying everything, is that the sustainable energy economy is that much easier to accomplish. It's actually half the problem statement of the fossil fuel economy. Yeah, and we're being conservative here, so it could be better than half, but we're trying to have assumptions that are reasonable, not overly optimistic, in fact slightly pessimistic.
35:59So it's really better than half, but just say for, it's easy to make the argument that we need half as much energy within the electric economy versus a combustion economy. Yep. So how the master plan works, you wanna talk about? Yeah. So the thing that is needed at very large scale
36:20needed at very large scale that is not currently present is a vast amount of battery energy storage. Our rough calculations are that this is about 240 terawatt hours or 240,000 gigawatt hours. This is a lot of batteries but it is actually a very achievable amount. We're going to details on that. So that's a combination of electric vehicles and stationary storage.
36:49So if you've got solar or wind, you've got to store the energy when the wind is not blowing, the sun is not shining. And so we're assuming sort of an 8 to 1 ratio of stored energy to power. So 30 terawatt hours of power. 30 terawatts of power. Our actual capital expenditure calculation for manufacturing investment is more like 6
37:17trillion. we made it higher to make it 10 trillion. And this is across mining, refining, battery factories, recycling, vehicle factories, all the things that we're gonna talk about needing to invest in to build the sustainable energy economy. Yeah, now, if you look at the total world economy, it's just under 100 trillion.
37:39So if this was spread out say over 10 years, it would be 1% of the global economy. Over 20 years, it would be half a percent. very global economy. So this is not a big number relative to the global economy. As Drew mentioned, you need about half as much energy with an electric economy versus a combustion economy.
38:01And in terms of wind and solar, how much land would be used, it's less than 0.2% of the land area of Earth. Generally, people don't realize quite how much energy is reaching us from the sun. It's roughly a gigawatt per square kilometer. And it's not as in China all the time, but if you multiply that by, say,
38:284 to get the continuous power, 4 or 5, then that gives you the land area of solar. And you can put wind and solar often in the same place. So all the places that currently have wind, you could have solar there and you doubled your energy. You can also put wind off shore. It doesn't even need to be on land.
38:46So when does even more flexible. It puts all of them short too. Yep. So Earth is 70% water. Anyway, what is that with a pretty, really, a remarkably small amount of Earth's land area, we can go fully sustainable. Yeah. And from a, do the resources and raw materials exist to support this transition?
39:10We'll go through that in detail, but we do not see any insurmountable resource challenges at all. In the end, we should be mining less ore to accomplish this economy than we currently do with the fossil fuel economy. And we're going to talk through that. Yeah, just emphasize that again, the electrified economy will require less mining than the current
39:29economy does. Less. Not more. Okay. So this is the plan, and now we'll get into a little more of the details of the plan. Basically five areas of work. First, renewable power, the existing grid. Second, switch to electric vehicles. Third, switch homes businesses and industry heating to heat pumps.
39:53Fourth, high temp heat delivery and storage for high temp industrial and chemical processes. And a little bit of green hydrogen in there for chemical processes that need hydrogen. And finally, sustainably fuel planes and boats. These are the five areas. And we're going to go into detail on all of them.
40:11Yeah, I mean, my personal opinion is that as we improve the energy density of batteries, you'll see all transportation go fully electric with the exception of rockets. That's awkward. But you can make the fuel with CO2 and water. So you can make methane with CO2 and water. And you can do that with just electricity.
40:35Yes, exactly. So, in fact, on Mars, we hopefully get there at some point, the atmosphere is CO2 and there's water ice throughout Mars. So you can take the CO2 and H2O and turn that into CH4, which is methane and oxygen. So ultimately, even rockets can be electrified. So first, repowering the existing grid with renewables, and this is going to be a consistent
41:02theme. You'll see our estimates for the number of terawatt hours, terawatts, and trillions of investment at the bottom of the page. This is already actively occurring in front of us. 60% of the generation added to the US grid was solar in 2022. And actually, on a year-on-year basis, solar deployment is growing 50% year-on-year as of 2022.
41:24So this is a serious upswing. And if we continue this trend, this is going to be behind us before we even know it. Second, switching to electric vehicles. Again, 21% reduction in fossil fuel use by doing this alone. Obviously, Tesla is heavily engaged in this activity, as along with many others.
41:46Overall, EV production grew 59% year on year in 2022. And EVs hit an amazing 10% market share. I mean, it's an awesome milestone. I'm super excited to see that. And I got to. Yeah. This is obviously happening very rapidly. And I think really all cars will go to fully electric and autonomous.
42:14And so riding a non-autonomous gasoline car is gonna be analogous to riding a horse and using a flip bone. That's basically gonna be the situation. And we actually took a somewhat conservative assumption here in terms of how many batteries are required because the more the fleet is autonomous, the fewer, the smaller the fleet needs to be, just from a utility-pray basis.
42:36So we're not accounting for all of those benefits, or really much of those benefits at all in this number. And what does this fleet look like? Just rough view from our perspective, of course, we could be wrong, but you can see the sort of breakdown of the fleet by millions of vehicles.
42:53Our goal is to do 20 million electric vehicles a year. Yeah. Fewer vehicles will be needed at least passenger vehicles with autonomy. So this debate as to what that number is, but it's a number less than the number of vehicles needed today. There's roughly 2 billion cars and trucks in operation in the world today.
43:17Yeah, so what we show here is actually, I think only 1.4 million or so. So we're 1.4 billion, I mean, or so. So a smaller fleet. And the numbers here in this presentation are around 85 million vehicles a year produced, just to give you a sense of how we're thinking about this. Again, we're going to put all these assumptions up online and encourage people's thoughts.
43:39Yeah. So, yeah. So we're basically heading rapidly towards an electric or autonomous future. Exciting. And one of the reasons why EVs are so enabling is this end use efficiency point. Tesla Model 3, it's four times more efficient from the well to wheel than a Toyota Corolla. And that's all about the efficiency of getting the electricity into the car in a sustainable energy economy and then how efficient the car is in transferring that stored energy to motion on the road.
44:14When compared to the engine in the Toyota Corolla and all the extraction refining transmission distribution of the gasoline to the Toyota Corolla. And just for, this is a fun reference. Model 3 can drive over a mile on the energy it takes to boil a pot of water for pasta, and then it can drive another mile on the energy it took to cook the pasta.
44:35And that pasta is one pound, and all three is like 4,000 pounds. Just to give you a sense of just like, it really doesn't use a lot of energy to move a Model 3 at 4,000 pound object down the road. Also heat is a lot more energy than motion. Yeah. Yeah. But people, you just boil a pot of water, you don't even think about it.
44:55It's just interesting how efficient these cars are. Next, switching to heat pumps in homes, businesses, and industry. Right now heat pumps meet 10% of building heating needs, install rates growing 10% year on year. It really needs to accelerate. Heat pumps can serve heat applications up to 200C in businesses and industry.
45:15And from an investment perspective, as you can see on this page, is actually the lowest hanging fruit in terms of displacing fossil fuels. You might be saying, what exactly is a heat pump? So heat pumps don't move heat. Don't create heat. They move heat. When you think about the natural gas furnace in your house, it is generating heat itself.
45:37But what the heat pump is doing is actually moving heat from outside of your house into your house. They're just an air conditioner or a refrigerator in reverse. So we're surrounded by heat pumps. There's like, they're all over this factory. They're in your house. And all this really is is about bringing them to displace all the fossil fuel heating in all the homes business in the industry that we can.
45:58And from an end-use efficiency perspective, there's a three times reduction in the total energy required to heat these buildings. So a real obvious thing to do. Yeah, heat pumps. There are not cars now as default, and at some point we might make heat pump for home. Yeah, maybe, maybe.
46:18Maybe. Next, a little bit more detail on electrifying high temp sort of industrial chemical processes. So over 50% of industrial heat is greater than 400C. Cement, steel, fertilizers, chemicals, plastics, metals refining, all need like 1,500C. So we need a solution here. Ultimately, it's purpose-built equipment that enables electrification.
46:42Carbon, graphite is stable up to 2,800C. There's other options in the 1,500C range like silicon carbide, other materials. So the idea here is you create and store heat when renewable power is available. If this is a sustainable energy economy, renewable energy is intermittent. Peak of the day, you've got more generation than you need.
47:02You make a bunch of heat then, and then you transfer that heat into the industrial process 24 hours a day using the stored heat you created when the sun or the wind was blowing. That's the concept here. And then on the hydrogen side, we also need green hydrogen to decarbonize metals and chemical refining processes.
47:18This is things like ammonia, making steel. There's roughly 120 million tons of hydrogen source from fossil fuel today to do these things. And hydrogen can also directly replace coal, which is currently used in a ton of steel production, through a process called directly reducing iron.
47:35You can replace blast furnaces with a hydrogen reducing direct reduce iron furnace. And this is the way to illuminate fossil fuels from these aspects of the economy and the CO2 associated with them. Yeah, so I mean, some of this room to disagree, but some amount of hydrogen is needed for industrial processes.
47:57My personal opinion is that hydrogen will not be used meaningfully in transport, but it shouldn't be. If you're going to use a chemical fuel, you should use CH4, not H2. But it's not unless it is needed for industrial processes. and can be produced just by splitting water, essentially.
48:18I mean, some of it's been done for decades and decades. This is not rocket technology. And lastly, a small part of the pie, but a necessary part of the pie, is sustainably fueling planes and boats. Shipping accounts for 3% of Global CO2. It's ripe for electrification. Even with lithium iron phosphate, long haul ships can be fully battery powered.
48:41So that's a great opportunity to electrify energy density is a little bit harder for planes, but short haul is doable today with some improvements. We'll get long haul underway, but even in the meantime, we can leverage sustainable aviation fuels produced and stored using access or noble electricity.
48:57There's a lot of work going on in this space. And it's not, yeah. Yeah, I mean, to really get long range aircraft and long range shipping to use lithium ion, you need to redesign the ship and not just, or the plane, and the plane, to take advantage of the fact that it is a new source of energy.
49:24It's a different architecture. So, just like with an electric car, you wouldn't just take a gasoline car and stick a battery in it. That's very sub-optimal. It's much more efficient to have the battery be the structure of the car. And make it mass efficient and optimize for battery.
49:48If that's done with aircraft, you can get long-range aircraft with sales at around 450 watt-hours per kilogram, which you can buy it right now. Actually, it's expensive, but I think that price will come down. So when we stack up all of these efforts, we end up with the numbers we shared at the
50:08beginning of the presentation, 30 terawatts, 240 terawatt hours, $10 trillion. And you may be saying, like, I need some context, is this feasible? Spoiler alert, it's entirely feasible. Just looking at it from a growth rate perspective, how much do we need to grow the deployment
50:28of these technologies? We're talking about only a 3x growth rate in solar and wind deployment. Solar is already growing at a breakneck pace as is wind. This gap is going to be closed really quickly. When we look at the electric vehicles, they have to grow 11x. Well, they grew 60% year on year last year.
50:48That growth rate is also going to close pretty darn. That gap is going to close pretty quickly as well. And lastly, storage. You know, Tesla's energy storage business has grown at 65% CAGR since 2016. The global energy storage business is accelerating pace as well. I mean, all of these gaps are going to close, especially as this momentum of the transition to sustainable energy accelerates.
51:14And of course, our goal on this page is 20 million EVs per year and one terawatt hour of stationary storage per year, basically as soon as we can. And then, you know, what about this investment? How do I have a reference point on this investment? You know, Elon mentioned it's 10% of, you know, one year's world GDP.
51:37Another way of thinking about it is how does it compare to what we're investing, like what we invested last year in the fossil fuel infrastructure. And it's 60% of that investment. So actually building this sustainable energy economy is less than extending the fossil fuel economy from a year over year investment basis. So, very
51:57doable. When we look towards, does this fit on the planet? Absolutely. Less than 0.2% of land. As a reference point, the total land area intensively farm today is 12.5% of all land. So, I mean, you drive around, do you see some farms, but you don't see them everywhere. This is an order of magnitude, more than order of magnitude difference between farming and what we're talking about for sustainable energy land.
52:25And it doesn't need to displace farmland or forests or jungle or any ecological preserve. It can be used in very sparsely populated desert regions. Baran areas that are just not really fit for development or otherwise used. Yeah. I mean, 0.2% can fit into a lot of places. Yeah, it's essentially no meaningful ecological impact.
52:53In fact, transition to a sustainable energy economy would result in a substantial reduction in current ecological impact. It's a great way to put it. Yeah. And what about on the mineral extraction side? So this is a cartoon that sort of gives you a sense for all the ore and the extracted minerals
53:13that are coming out of the earth every year. It's about 68 gigatons. So each truck has a gigaton. What does this look like when we're in a sustainable energy economy? Looks like that. The fossil fuel extraction disappears. We replace it with the materials required to fulfill the sustainable energy economy.
53:34It actually reduces. Now, it's not to say that we don't need to continue to explore, bring our mining and refining for the specific materials for the sustainable energy economy. We do. But the investment in mass flows are all very achievable, just looking at what is already happening on the planet.
53:50Like this is nothing out of scale of what has been done and is already being done. And then we calculated on a sort of, you know, element by element basis, the resources are there to support the transition. You know, this is cumulative demand to move in the sustainable energy economy direction until 2050 relative to USGS resources today.
54:12You know, we're not breaking the resource bank for any of these materials. And then when we look at what really happens as we move forward, history teaches the more we look, the more we find. What people think happens is, oh, there's this many resources, next year there's going to be less, because we're going to extract them.
54:29What actually happens is, as we extract resources, we find more. And you can see, on the right, what has actually occurred with the key materials to the sustainable energy economy. Since 2000, as the sustainable energy economy has been growing, and Tesla's been growing, and all the industries around us have been growing, the actual resource availability has increased, not decreased.
54:50Yeah, this seems to be quite a bit of confusion about lithium. Lithium is extremely common. It's one of the most common elements on earth. There's no country that has monopoly on lithium, or even close to it. There's enough lithium, or in the United States, to electrify all of earth if the United States was the only place producing lithium. There's enough domestic material to electrify Earth. It's very common.
55:22The limiting factor is the refining of the lithium into battery grade lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate. That's the actual limiting factor. And the same is true for these other materials. And this is, again, these are not like crazy technologies. It's just the investments need to be made and the investments, they're not gigantic they just need to happen.
55:42Right. Nichols maybe the, of them all the trickiest one to solve, but as we showed with the graph there, maybe you need like 30% of the world's known nickel reserves. And the nickel reserves have actually grown, since 2000. There is more, yeah, exactly. So, and you only need nickel for basically aircraft,
56:03long range boats, and very long range cars or trucks. but the vast majority of the heavy lifting for electrification will be iron-based cells. And the Earth is, iron is actually literally the most common elements on Earth. So it's a little trivia point. If you say, what is Earth made of?
56:27By mass, it is made of iron more than anything else. And second, oxygen, and then everything else after that. So basically where a muddy rust ball is, what Earth is. So an iron cathode is sort of, you're definitely not going to run out of iron. There's so much iron is insane. Yeah, and ultimately, this resource extraction, we go through this effort, we build these batteries, and then we recycle these batteries.
57:03So ultimately, we're doing this to build this sustainable energy economy, but the maintenance amount of ore that we require is really an order of magnitude or more less because of recycling. So in the end, a sustainable energy economy is within our reach and we should accelerate it.
57:24Yeah, I mean, so this is really the main message of today. And I really wanted today to be not just about tells the investors who own stock, but really anyone who is an investor in Earth. And what we're trying to convey is a message of hope and optimism. And hope, optimism that is based on actual physics and real calculations, it's not wishful
57:52thinking. Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy, and will do so in your lifetime. Thank you. Yes. Thank you. And I just want to welcome Lars and Franz to the stage.
58:24Hi, I'm Franz. I have lead design at Tesla. And I'm Lars. I've been doing vehicles with Franz for almost 13 years now. So I joined Tesla in 2008 to vertically integrate design into the company. It didn't exist before. It was a pretty small team. It was tasked with designing most beautiful, innovative, and well-engineered vehicles on
58:49the planet. No small task in 2008. There is not a lot going on on the EV sector then. Since then, we focused on constant improvement and cost, efficiency, innovation, things that you'll continue to hear about today, while continuing to design the most desirable cars. Today we produced cars differently than we did 10 years ago.
59:10But the end result is always an exciting, futuristic, and desirable set of vehicles. Back then, we only had a handful of designers and engineers like myself, but we had a great vision to radically change transportation. So back in 2008, where we were designing Model S, we didn't have a factory.
59:30In fact, we had a really small engineering team and a tiny design team. But that allowed design to lead all the conversations. It let us innovate forward thinking ideas like how do you fit seven people into a sedan? Or how do you make door handles disappear into the doors? Or putting a huge touchscreen into the center of the vehicle, something that had never been
59:55done before? And then we won Motor Trend Car of the Year. Yes, and we won Motor Trend Car of the Year in 2013. our first, our first, you know, great award first car. Pretty good start, kind of a home run, I think. But that whole process resulted in a linear process that you see on the screen.
1:00:14We designed first, then we engineered, and then we figured out how to manufacture it. Yeah, I mean, I think that's really important. When we were designing the car together, we didn't even know where we were gonna build it. And so we came up with maybe- Even no lars when we were doing it.
1:00:26That's true. So once we got Fremont, we were very fortunate, and we figured out the manufacturing solutions sort of like we were flying a plane and putting the wings and building the engine at the same time. So we knew we had to do better. Yeah, we knew he had to be better in order to scale.
1:00:42And as part of the master plan that you've read, Model 3 needed to be a smaller, more efficient and more affordable version of Model S, but it had to be equally great. It had to have all the things that people loved in their Model S or Model X, and would be much more affordable.
1:00:59And so we approached the process a little bit differently than the first time around. Now we had teams that we all work together. So we were able to combine design, engineering, and manufacturing process all at the same time. But somewhere along the way, we changed the manufacturing
1:01:18process to be fully automated. And so we leaned into this whole new way of manufacturing a car, but we had already engineered it. So things didn't quite go as well as planned. It was an amazing product, but it landed us in production hell. Many of us who lived through that carry those battle scars.
1:01:37It was a great idea, but it wasn't the right timing. Like Franz said, automating something that we designed to be built manually is super hard. And we have many, many failed examples of that at the Fremont factory that we ripped out. But some of them eventually still work. This is one I actually worked on with small team engineers.
1:01:54It's still running today. And some of the engineers that came by said we couldn't do it are no longer with the company, but it's running and is running faster than ever. So we kind of self-imposed constraints on the design when we were doing it to be built manually and we really didn't think about it.
1:02:12But despite all that, Model 3 is the best-selling EV ever. Yeah, and Model Y, which is derived from Model 3, is about to pass that. But we knew we had to improve the process further. And with Cybertruck, we designed a vehicle around a vision that actually started with the manufacturing process.
1:02:32And in this case, the materials dictated the design. Forming full-hard stainless steel isn't rocket science, but it sure isn't easy, and it limited the way we could do it. Yeah, absolutely. It really forced us to think about designing something in a way that you couldn't normally
1:02:50stamp panels, you couldn't form them in a traditional way. So you ended up with very linear bending processes that are just not in automotive kind of language of manufacturing today. But it actually created a very efficient process and one of the most dynamic designs ever, I believe, is definitely something that's gonna change the road landscape.
1:03:13Hopefully you guys saw it down there and you experienced it. It's definitely real. Those are real trucks. We're on our way to build them. But what that stainless steel opportunity did for us, It is let us rethink the factory footprint. We don't stamp those, that's a huge part of it.
1:03:27We don't even paint them. So our footprint got smaller and we started to think about innovative ways to take those constraints and make great products. But that constraint didn't really change the end result of the truck. It's a super dynamic truck and it has all the functionality you would expect out of any of the other competitive trucks.
1:03:47And the best thing about it, it's coming this year. So ideally, after all that, we would design, engineer, manufacture, and plan for automation happening together. It gives us the opportunity to question requirements. This is something that is fundamentally only available at Tesla, and the places I used to work and the top manufacturing companies in the world, they don't sit together.
1:04:15We are one team. Nowhere I know has all these teams together thinking about these processes from the very beginning. In fact, all of those engineering teams, manufacturing, design, automation, they're all in one work. They all report to one person. We can't point fingers at each other, so we have to solve them together, which is the best way to innovate.
1:04:34The traditional way of making a vehicle is this. You stamp it, you do build a body in white, you paint it, and you do final assembly. And what's interesting is these shops are dictated by the organizational structures that exist, and they're dictated by the boundaries that exist in the factories that are laid out.
1:04:51If something goes wrong in final assembly, you block the whole line, and you end up with buffering in between. This is at the tail end of its manufacturing optimization. Henry Ford first invented this assembly line in 1922. It's been 100 years, and it's really hard to make a change after 100 years.
1:05:10And when you watch it happen, it's actually really silly to a guy like me. You take all these stamp panels, you put them together, then you put them in a framing station, you build a body that looks something like a car, You put the doors on and then you paint them. Once you get the color, you take the doors off and then you start putting the interior
1:05:33inside the car. It comes in through the openings that already exist. I wish it went in like this big piece like this but there's actually people coming in and out of the car. There's awkward movements. Then we lift the car up. We put stuff from underneath it. We put it down. Then we put the seats in the car.
1:05:49And finally, we close it all out with glass and we bring those doors that went away for for a trip and we put them back in the car. Most of the time we're doing this with a big giant car and moving it and doing really nothing to it at all. What's funny though in this kind of whole process is that just recently Toyota just called this an engineering work of art.
1:06:10True. The Model Y. That was humbling, but at Tesla it's not good enough. If we're gonna scale the way we wanna do, we have to rethink manufacturing again. as part of the master plan, we have to make another step-changing cost. We started this on Model Y when we made these huge gigacastings, and we deleted hundreds
1:06:33of parts. We simplified assembly with the Model Y structural battery, where we decided the floor should be a part of the car. The battery is the floor. We put the seats in the interior on the battery, and we bring it up through a big open hole, and we assemble it. And this allowed us to do things in parallel, fully rethinking the process and reducing the
1:06:54final assembly line by about 10%. And we thought maybe we could do this other places. Yeah, I mean, in a way, the constraints become part of the solution rather than a problem. So when you think about what I'm trying to say, I really want to hammer this home. When you have a car that's about five meters long, and you have people working around it, like we did in Model 3, and we change that to this process where we take different parts of the car, and we can do more at the same time, like we did with the Model Y structural battery pack, What you see here is us doing that on the front part of the vehicle, or the rear part of the vehicle.
1:07:30That means we can get more people working on the car or robots, working on it at the same time. That means we have better operator density, less time doing nothing. I call that space-time efficiency. It has nothing to do with quantum mechanics. We can have that conversation later.
1:07:46But we get 44% more operator density, which means more work, less time walking back to the station, 30% improvement in space time efficiency. And because we're not building it in and out of the car with those slow movements of those robots I showed you from production hell, when we go to automate it, it's going to be a lot easier.
1:08:06In the end, that will probably look something like this, where we balance parallel and series manufacturing in a way where we only do things that are necessary, with a much shorter final line blocking a lot less of the entire rest of the factory so we can optimize material flow using the best practices.
1:08:23And what that means, it's going to look something like this, where we build all the sides of the cars independently. We only paint what we need to. And then we assemble the parts of the car once and only once. We put them where they need to go. The interiors attach from a bottom up or a top down strategy,
1:08:42so there's more access for those robots and people. We aren't moving heavy objects around and doing nothing to it. And it means we're doing more work on the car more of the time. And then when we take all of these tested sombre assemblies and we put them together, we finally assemble the car only one time, putting the sides on with all of their parts to a front and rear that was already assembled, carrying the floor in with the seats, and finally boxing it out with the doors one time, just like Cybertruck.
1:09:11So in the end, you get the same car. But it's not going to be a model why. Yeah, this is not, this is a model Y for illustration, not the next gen vehicle. In the end, what does that mean? To increase the scale and adoption of electric vehicles on the orders of magnitude that we just showed you, we have to make constraints part of the solution.
1:09:32It leads us to greater than 40% reduction in footprint, which means we can build factories faster, with less CAPX and more output per unit. faster, less CapEx, more output per unit dollar. Zach's gonna go into more details on this later, but it also means through this innovation and some of what my other engineering colleagues are gonna talk to you about in the future, will reduce cost as much as 50%.
1:09:59This is the two for one concept you hear me and Elon talking about on earnings calls. Yeah, so I think our track record approves that we can deliver the best cars, and we deliver the best cars in spite of because of these constraints. And I'd love to really show you what I mean and unveil the next gen car.
1:10:20But you're gonna have to trust me on that until a later date. Just, and I promise we'll always be delivering exciting, compelling and desirable vehicles, like as we always have. Have we ever not? Yeah, we always do. But what else has Tesla known for? Speed. So with that, I wanna bring on Colin, who's in charge of making our cars go fast.
1:10:40Thank you Lars. Thank you Franz. My name is Colin Campbell and I have the real privilege of leading powertrain engineering here at Tesla. We make the fastest cars that you can buy for the money whether they're electric or gas and the Model S plaid that we're looking at here it has more than a thousand horsepower and pound per pound the motors in that car
1:11:06or as powerful as jet engines. Our cars are super fun people absolutely love driving in And the other thing that you probably all know about our power trains is that they're efficient. Ourcos go 25 to 30% further than other EVs in our class for the same amount of efficiency. But at Tesla, efficiency means more than just reducing how much energy the cars use.
1:11:29It's about how we develop, how we manufacture, how we refine, and how we scale the power train. Now the Model 3 and Y powertrain is a great example of this broader meaning of efficiency. So since we launched it back in 2017, we've continuously improved that powertrain and the factory that builds it.
1:11:49So the drive unit, the engine of the car, is 20% lighter for the same power. We use 25% less heavy rare earths than when we started. And the powertrain factory, which is behind me today, is 75% smaller and 65% cheaper than the one that we originally built. What I really want to emphasize is that we did all of this without compromise.
1:12:14Our cars are just as powerful. They go just as far. They cost the same or less. And the factories have the same output. So how did we do that? We did it by designing the entire vehicle and the entire factory together as one company, and this sets Tesla apart. We have small and highly capable teams, and to make a critical decision we can have the
1:12:41battery cell chemists, the mechanical engineers, the manufacturing engineers, the supply chain team, the automation designers, the software programmers, all in one room working together in real time. And that allows us to make decisions that are best for the whole car and to make them really fast.
1:13:00And that approach is unlike traditional automotive engineering, which is really fractured. And if you were to go buy a premium German electric car, the engineers who designed the drive inverter in that car, they did not work for that car company. They worked for a contractor. And it tests that we designed the entire car and the factory that builds it.
1:13:19And I want to highlight a few examples of what we've been able to do in-house thanks to that unique approach. So inside the charger of your Tesla are transistor packages. And that's at the top of your screen here. And every electron that moves you down the road flows through one of these packages.
1:13:38We designed our own custom package, which is what you're seeing here. And we can extract twice as much heat out of that package as well we could buy off the shelf. And so what does that mean? It means that the silicon carbide wafer that's inside those packages can be much smaller.
1:13:55And silicon carbide is an amazing semiconductor, but it's also expensive, and it's really hard to scale. So using less of it is a big win for us. And then on top of that, orchestrating all of these transistors and making them switch in the right ways is computationally extremely intensive.
1:14:15It used to require four microprocessors, which are shown here in the bottom left. We have developed our own custom microprocessor. It's purpose built for high power electronics. It's half the cost and it does in just one the job of all those four. And these are just two examples of many that I could use to showcase our expertise in high power electronics.
1:14:39And that expertise has allowed us to take the cost of the chargers that were in our Model S when we launched it in 2012, both the cost and the mass, and cut both of those in half. And even more important, the power electronics are central not just to our cars. They're also central to our superchargers, into our energy storage products.
1:15:01And Rebecca and Mike will be talking more about that. So in addition to the work that we've done in hardware, we've also done a lot of work in-house on software. So this is the drive unit for Model 3 and Y. And if we take a cross-section, we see the stator and the rotor. And they're responsible for the core function of the drive unit, which is converting electricity into motion.
1:15:21And our custom software lets us simulate the rotating magnetic field that is responsible for that conversion. And getting that simulation exactly right, it's central to the cost, the weight, the size, and even the sound of the drive unit. Now, you can buy software that will do all of this, but our tools are faster, and they are more accurate, and that was not easy to do.
1:15:48And that allows us to quickly iterate millions of possible drive unit designs to find the best one. We want to highlight one more area where Tesla really excels because we integrate work that is often farmed out. So when you are making a new product, it's not enough to think about the product itself.
1:16:07You have to think about how you're going to make it at scale. So Tesla, our powertrain, and our powertrain manufacturing equipment is both designed under one roof. The engineers who are designing the motor, they are in the same room as the engineers who who are designing the machine that's going to put that motor together.
1:16:24And that collaboration pushes us from day one to design products that are not only high performance, but are really easy to assemble. So all of this expertise that we have in the Powertrain team and hardware and software in manufacturing, it's going to have a major impact on our next platform
1:16:45in our next Powertrain. So the silicon carbide transistors that I mentioned that are key component, but expensive, we figured out a way to use 75% less without compromising the performance or the efficiency of the car. And of course, we know that battery cell supplies one of the constraints on the scalability of EVs right now.
1:17:06Our new powertrain is compatible with any battery chemistry. That will give us great flexibility in battery sourcing. If we want to make EVs more accessible to people, they have to be cheaper. We've reduced the driving at cost to about $1,000. And we don't think any other automaker is even close to that number.
1:17:29Finally, the bigger a factory is, the longer it takes to build. If we can build the same number of cars from a smaller factory, we are going to be able to scale EV production faster. Our next powertrain factory is 50% smaller than the one that's behind me today, even though it has the same capacity.
1:17:49All of these improvements, I think, are going to be transformative for the adoption of EVs and our ability to scale them, there's one more thing that I want to highlight. So I talked about how we had reduced the amount of rare earth in our power trains. And as the world transitions to clean energy, the demand for rare earth is really increasing dramatically.
1:18:08And not only is it going to be a little hard to meet that demand, but mining that rare earth, it has environmental and health risks. So we want to do even better than this. We have designed our next drive unit, which uses a permanent magnet motor to not use any rare earth materials at all.
1:18:29So how does all this fit into the master plan? We can make lower cost products that are still efficient and compelling and we can make them at scale. We can use less of constrained commodities, silicon carbide, rare earths. We're gonna build them all in compact and high output factories that are easy for us to build quickly.
1:18:49We're gonna make that easy to scale power trains all the way up to the levels that Drew and Elon mentioned at the beginning. And this achievement, Like all of the achievements that I mentioned today, it's only possible because of the incredible people on our Powertrain teams. They are absolutely committed to the cause of sustainable energy, and that is why we can
1:19:06do what no other company can do. Thank you. So next I'd like to welcome my colleagues Pete Bannon, David Lau. Thanks Colin. Good afternoon everybody and welcome to Texas. Pictured here is the low voltage system of a Model S from 2012. This car was primarily designed with vendor source controllers integrated by Tesla.
1:19:40There were over 300 low voltage devices that encompass everything from the mundane, like the light in the glove box, to the complicated, like the infotainment computer, to the safety critical, like the airbags, stir-by wire, and brake-by wire. The low voltage harness is built from individual wires cut to length, crimped, and inserted
1:20:03into connectors, a manual process that is tedious, error-prone, and doesn't scale well. Going forward, we want to reduce the size and complexity of the harness and enable automated manufacturing. These wire harnesses introduce extraordinary complications, especially in the early stages
1:20:22of development and bring up of a vehicle, because when we're trying to bring up this entire system and we see that it's not working properly, we don't know whether it's a problem with the software, with the controller, the processor, any of the endpoints in this entanglement of wires.
1:20:35And so we have to go and debug everything all at once, and Pete's gonna tell us about how we're gonna make it better. So I'm gonna talk briefly about a few things that we've changed over the years since the Model S. With the Model 3, Teggra Tesla started designing an increasing share of our controllers by emerging controllers together.
1:20:55And we were able to simplify the design with a significant reduction in wire count and weight. Going from S to three, we reduced the wire harness by 17 kilograms compared to Model S. And this is a pretty big deal, and just to put that into context, our VP of engineering Lars will deliver a bottle of your favorite spirit to your desk if you manage to save a kilogram of weight from the car.
1:21:18So this improvement cost him quite a lot. Do we skip one? Yeah. The original Model 3 controllers were enhanced and then built into Model Y. Those improved controllers were then moved back into Model 3 when we introduced the heat pump. At that point, we had shared controllers across both cars, which helped simplify our supply chain.
1:21:41Those Model 3 and Y controller designs were then updated and enhanced for the new versions of Model S and X that we introduced in 2021. For CyberTruck, we are now designing 85% of the controllers in the car. For the next gen platform, we're going to finish the job and be designing 100% of the controllers to give us full control of the design and the supply chain at the component level.
1:22:03Having full control of the supply chain at the component level has been critical to Tesla over the last few years as the supply constraints have hampered our ability to build cars. And with that control comes control over all the software, which enables us to develop features and functionality that we never even dreamed of at the time we designed hardware. So that's why you see software in your car is getting better and better over time in ways
1:22:27that we didn't even think of when we designed the hardware in the first place. Yes, Century Mode is one of my favorite last-minute changes. With the introduction of Model 3 in 2017, we deleted relays and fuses from the car in favor of eFuses. eFuses replace moving parts with solid state transistors.
1:22:47They provide fine-grained control of the power system to software and allow software to do advanced things like load shedding in the car under adverse conditions. Efuses also allow for software controlled retries for transient faults and they all allow for detailed monitoring of the power system over time.
1:23:05And what the theme you hear a lot about today is software controlled hardware. And when I think about that in my team, software controlled hardware is fundamentally about being able to sidestep what otherwise would have been static trade-offs between one attribute or another in a piece of hardware.
1:23:20We are able with software to instill intelligence, context awareness, and context specific behavior into what otherwise would have been a piece of hardware that had to get optimized for one type of scenario. We get more of everything. In 2022, we completed the transition of lead acid batteries to lithium ion batteries, and
1:23:41which use a new tool-less connector. We expect lithium ion batteries to last for the life of the car, so we don't expect anyone to wake up to a dead battery ever again. This eliminates a major source of failures for our car, and the tool-less connector makes it easier to service the car, and it also includes a software feature to allow validation that the connector has been properly installed at the end of a service event, which removes another source of failures in our cars.
1:24:11Obviously the mass and volume savings are also significant, which is super helpful. A Tesla were always trying to improve every single component in the car, and a nice example of that is the 15-inch display that was originally shipped in the 2017 Model 3. Over time, the cost of the display has gone down 24%.
1:24:34We've been able to reduce the weight by 12%, and we've reduced the power by 33%. At the same time, we've increased the brightness of the display by 50% and improved the color accuracy. So this is one of our favorite things at Tesla, just to make a component cheaper and better. At Tesla, the drive to improve efficiency in the car is never ending.
1:24:53I think of it as peeling a car at it, you just take a swipe at it, a little bit falls off, doesn't really make much of a difference. But if you just keep at it, over time it accumulates into a pretty significant improvement. One of the changes that we're looking to make right now is to change something that's been steady for the last 60 years, 12 volts.
1:25:1312 volts has been, as I said, for 60 years. The demand for power in the car has been steadily increasing to the point where we now have to have pretty large wires to drive over 200 amps of current around the car, which increases the mass and cost. With Cybertruck and all future Tesla platforms, we will be moving to 48 volts.
1:25:31This reduces the current needed by a factor of four. And since power loss in the harness is resistance times the square of the current. A 4x reduction in current leads to a 16x reduction in lost power while distributing energy in the car. That allows for smaller wires, smaller e-fuses, and smaller controllers.
1:25:50It also allows us to make those heat sinks smaller, or in many cases, remove it completely, all benefiting the car in terms of mass and weight. 48 volts is the future for a little voltage design at Tesla, and likely the rest of the industry and do course. We welcome and encourage other OEMs and the entire supplier network to join us on this evolution.
1:26:12you bet. The number of wires in the car is driven by the number of endpoints that need to be powered and controlled. In the past centralized control has led for wires spanning the entire car. For Cybertruck design, we have moved to a local controller where the wire is connected to the nearest controller,
1:26:34and those controllers are connected over ethernet. Wires are routed to the nearest controller where the data is converted into a network packet for a transmission to the correct location in the car. To be effective, the network must be reliable, have low latency and low jitter, and these are all attributes that we've been able to achieve with the current design.
1:26:52The design has eliminated most of the cross-work car wires in Cybertruck, and with the next gen platform, we're gonna finish the job and eliminate all of them. The some consolidated vehicle network allows us also to make a whole lot more dynamic changes on the fly. to how components in the vehicle talk to each other, rather than the traditional approach of separate CAN buses that are spread throughout the vehicle.
1:27:13Yeah, and one of the nice things is that you can see the entire vehicle through a single connection, which wasn't possible in the past, for debug. For the next-gen platform, we're looking to optimize the controller design across the entire car, and across all of the organizations, not just for a given subsystem, simplifying the wire harness will enable automation.
1:27:3448 volts will allow us to reduce the size, mass, and cost of the low voltage system. And it's one of the key things to enabling us to scale production of the low voltage systems to a further master plan 3. David? So I joined Tesla in 2012. And even in those very early days of the Model S, we already had the ability to update software
1:28:02over the air in all of the controllers throughout the entire vehicle. At a time when other cars were just starting to update software in only their infotainment units. And furthermore, we've had sophisticated anonymized data logging and telemetry capabilities that allow us to understand how the fleet is doing, what customers are doing with it,
1:28:22and how it's responding in the field to that usage. These two capabilities combined, OTA updates and data insights, Give us the ability to iterate quickly on our software and to maximize the amount that we learn and proceed and the progress that we make in every one of those iterations.
1:28:41We've used these capabilities to inform countless design decisions in both software and hardware. One example is that we were able to monitor and track the use of the sunroof in our cars and found that our customers never use their sunroof. So it made easy decision to remove it.
1:28:59Very barely. Yeah. I haven't had some reps for a while. As another example, we are able to use our collision data to design our crash safety systems for what happens in the real world, far beyond what regulatory and consumer ratings tests prescribe. And then furthermore, we're able to use that data to recreate in simulation all of those
1:29:23crashes every single time we make a change to the vehicle's design. to the software that controls the airbags and other restraint systems. Here on this graph, the gray dots that show up first are specific crash tests that are prescribed by regulatory and consumer ratings agencies throughout the whole world. And the rest of the color that fills in around and on top of it, those represent the crashes that we've seen happen in the real world. Those are what we designed for and what we test to. Right. And last year, this data was used to
1:29:57used to change the algorithm for seat belt tensioning to reduce injuries in the field, which was OTA to all of our cars. Here are a few statistics that demonstrate how staggeringly quickly we gain new insights from the anonymized data that we've received from the fleet every day.
1:30:16Every day, 123 million miles driven, 1.9 million charge sessions, and those rates are only increasing as we deliver more and more cars into the world. As another example, we've analyzed patterns in the way the fleet drives and charges to optimally size battery packs for our next generations of vehicles.
1:30:38And you'll hear lots of other examples throughout the rest of the day about how we're using data to inform decisions in the product and in manufacturing. So you've heard a lot from Pete, Colin, and others about how important vertical integration is for us in hardware, but it's especially important for us in software.
1:30:56And this is extremely difficult from the way the rest of the traditional automotive supply chain is set up. In most situations, all the controllers in the car are delivered by different tier one suppliers whose software is written by tier two suppliers who farm some of that software
1:31:12out to different tier three suppliers and so on and so on. Making a change that spans multiple components takes months of coordination before any work can even start. And furthermore, integration of software in the server side with what's happening in our vehicles has always been a core part of our DNA and enables us to do things that nobody
1:31:33else can. Most engineers think about the vehicle as a complete, consolidated, fully contained system. But in the software team, we think about the system as including the vehicle as well as all of our back-end server side applications and infrastructure and the resultant feedback
1:31:51loop from the entire fleet that informs all the decisions we make as an engineering team. For example, we recently released a feature in Model S and X that automatically, predictably, adjusts and raises the suspension for ride comfort before the car hits a section of rough road.
1:32:10We do that by leveraging the fleet to generate a map of road roughness everywhere our cars drive. Sounds pretty simple, but requires coordination of software across a number of different components inside and outside of the car. The restraint control module, whose inertial measurement unit senses the road roughness, the autopilot computer, whose GPS module and localizer figure out where the car is in the world, our navigation server, which aggregates the anonymized telemetry from the fleet and annotates our map with things like updated speed limits, lane topology, and now road roughness.
1:32:47The onboard navigation engine, which looks ahead of the route that the car is traveling on and determines whether things are about to get rough. And finally, the air suspension controller, which takes all of those factors into account and decides continuously whether it is appropriate to adjust a suspension for ride comfort.
1:33:07And before we release this feature to the world, we sent prototype versions of it to the entire fleet that ran passively in the background, sending us anonymous data about every time it would have engaged, which taught us exactly how it was going to behave in the wild in every environment, in every circumstance.
1:33:27Yeah, being able to test new algorithms in the background without an impact in the car is really critical ability for us, especially for safety critical things like automatic emergency braking. And we've used it to iterate on early versions of our stability control algorithms, which were introduced to the entire model three fleet in 2017 with extremely high confidence,
1:33:50even on a very foundational and safety critical function. OK, so far you've heard me talk a lot about how we leverage our software systems to iterate quickly on the customer-facing product. But what I haven't talked about, and what we haven't said much about publicly in general, is how we leverage these capabilities in our own internal operations.
1:34:11So for example, in the early days of manufacturing model S, We very quickly realized that there are a lot of different ways you could misassemble a car. You could forget to plug in a wire. You could not fully set a connector. You could pull apart from the wrong bin. So when we designed our manufacturing processes for Model 3 and all of our other vehicles going forward, we took a page from the software playbook, which says, test early and test often.
1:34:41And we applied that mantra to every single car that we build at every step of the assembly line. So now, when a production associate plugs something into the car, the central car computer sees that connection, confirms that it's the correct part for the type of car that's supposed to be built, installs a software update, if necessary, checks configurations and calibrations, and runs a barrage of tests on that thing, and all the other things that are connected to it.
1:35:06And if it finds an anomaly that can't be fixed purely with software, it throws an alert immediately that is displayed prominently on the vehicle's display, as well as sent to back-end command and control systems so that a human can come over and fix the problem before the rest of the car gets built on top of it.
1:35:24And we're taking a similar approach in service through a combination of onboard vehicle diagnostics, natural language processing applied to customer narratives when a customer schedules a service appointment, and a suite of internally developed tools, we are successfully diagnosing, scheduling, and ordering parts for over 33% of customer concerns and service.
1:35:46Yep, and we also use testers built around our own controllers to test sub-assemblies before they get to the car, which will be even more important as we go to Lars' unboxed assembly strategy. 100% will know with extremely high confidence that before those boxes get put together,
1:36:02that they are assembled, they themselves are assembled correctly. Okay, you've heard at lots of other events about all the awesome things that are auto-pilot and AI teams are doing to make the car drive itself, bringing us into the future of autonomy. But we've also been thinking for years about all of the other pieces that we are going to need to manage a network of autonomous vehicles.
1:36:27A lot of this has been happening behind the scenes in the form of platform level functionality that we'll leverage later. But you've seen some of it surface already in terms of features that our customers and our internal operations teams can benefit from. Like in 2021, we built on top of our mobile app phone key and gave our customers the ability to share their car with anyone by sending them an invitation in a text message or an email.
1:36:50Last year, we introduced profile synchronization, which synchronizes your seat, steering, and mirror positions, as well as your settings, media favorites, and stored navigation locations across all vehicles in your account. Internally, we have an app that allows our personnel in engineering, manufacturing, delivery, and logistics to view, locate, and drive all Tesla-owned vehicles
1:37:14at their site. And when customers bring their car into service, when they receive a Tesla-owned service loaner vehicle, we are starting at some locations to automatically add that vehicle to the customer's mobile app account, so that combined with cloud synchronized profiles and phone key, it's a completely seamless experience.
1:37:33As soon as the customer walks up to that loaner, it behaves and feels exactly like their own car. And all this is built on top of end-to-end encryption and cryptographically signed commands so that customer data remains private and obscure and the fleet only trusts commands from authorized parties.
1:37:54So that's a bit of a preview of all the pieces that we're building looking ahead to our future of autonomous fleets. Synchronization, permissions management, security and privacy. And that has been a whirlwind tour through some of the things that we're doing behind the scenes to enable the efficiency, cost reduction, and speed that we're going to need for our next phase of growth and for the next phase of the master plan.
1:38:20And so now, to tell us about the latest in full self-driving, I'd like to introduce a show. Thanks, David and Pete. Hey, everyone. My name is Ashok Eliswamy. I work on autopilot and cell driving at Tesla. I joined Tesla back in 2014. So I've been working on this problem for almost nine years now.
1:38:48Yeah. Some of you might be wondering, hey, what is this self-driving got to do with the plan to a sustainable future? But it's actually a critical part of this plan. And here's why. Currently, when the car is not being used, it is sitting idly in parking lots, not doing anything.
1:39:05But when autonomy is truly unlocked, this car, instead of being idle, can go serve other customers. And this fundamentally reduces the need to scale manufacturing to extreme levels, because each car is being used way more. But this is no trivial problem. Building a scalable self-driving system is, I think, one of the hardest real-world AI
1:39:33problems out there right now. Nonetheless, we at Tesla have made significant strides in making one of the most general systems solving this problem. There are three main parts to get right to build a scalable problem. First is the architecture. The architecture of the AI system.
1:39:58Second is the data, and third is the compute. We'll start with the architecture. At Tesla, we are betting on AI mission-learning neural networks to help us build a general vision and planning system. In the early days, we used to have single camera, single frame neural networks that produced some
1:40:20outputs. These were switched together in some post-processing steps for the planner. But this was very brittle and was not leading to great success. So what we did in the last few years is transition most of our stack into this multi-camera video neural networks. These neural networks take in the live feed from the car in real time of the eight cameras
1:40:43in the car and produce a single unify 3D output space. There are many tasks that we produce, such as the presence of obstacles, their motion, lanes, roads, traffic lights, what have you. This is one example of output that you're seeing here. This is from our occupancy network that predicts the positions of obstacles and their motion.
1:41:07You can see that it precisely captures the swirby, violent motion of this truck next to us. And this helps the planning system to avoid a collision with this object. Some of the tasks, such as lane connectivity, are more complicated to model using naive methods in computer vision.
1:41:27So we don't stop at the computer vision techniques, but we reach out to techniques in other areas, such as language modeling, reinforcement learning, to model this task. This is similar. These networks use similar techniques, such as transformers, attention modules, auto-regressive modeling of tokens, similar to what large language models like chat GPT do out there.
1:41:51With such an end-to-end system of solving perception, we have really removed the brittle post-processing steps and produced high quality outputs for the planning system. Even the planning system is not stuck in the old ways. It is now starting to use more and more AI systems to solve this problem.
1:42:11The neural network-based planners are needed, especially in complicated urban planning, when there's a lot of other objects interacting with us. This is, for example, an intersection where we had to turn left while yielding to crossing objects and to the pedestrians crossing the road.
1:42:25We had to do this both safely and smoothly while respecting everyone's right-of-way and preferences. If this was done naively, each configuration would take 10 milliseconds of compute and there are easily thousands of configurations to reason about. This would not be feasible using traditional compute.
1:42:46But using AI, we have packaged all of this into a 50-millisecat compute budget so it can run in real time. The second big piece of this puzzle is the data. This is where Tesla has a unique advantage because it can tap into the fleet to access the exact data that can fix the problems.
1:43:11But raw data is not sufficient. In order to train these networks, you need label data. you need labels to supervise the networks. And if you only depended on the human labelers, this data would be too tiny to train these large multi-camera video modules. We need lots and lots of data to train these networks.
1:43:34Hence, we have built a sophisticated auto-labeling pipeline that collects data from the fleet, runs computational algorithms in our data center, and then produces the labels to train these networks. Here, you are seeing a 3D reconstruction that is happening by collecting various clips from different cars in the fleet and assembling them all of them together into a single unified representation of the world around the car.
1:44:01You can see all the lanes, the road boundaries, curb, crosswalks, even the text on the road, being accurately reconstructed by these algorithms. We don't have to stop at this kind of reconstruction. Once we have this base reconstruction, we can build various simulations on top of it to produce an infinite variety of data to train for all the corner cases.
1:44:26We have a capable simulator that can synthesize adversarial weather, lighting conditions, and even the emotion of other objects to test all the corner cases that might even be rare in the real world. Here's an example of why this data is critical and how we can solve problems using data.
1:44:47So back in the days, for example, in this case, we had some false braking where we thought this car that's actually parked there was going to move into our path and hence we were precautiously braking. But it is unnecessary because the car is truly parked. So how can we solve this?
1:45:05What we did was we mined the fleet for similar cases where the car falls braking due to some parked car. We added 14,000 videos to our training set. And then once we train the networks again with this new data, it now correctly understands that, OK, there is no driver in this car, and it must be parked, so then there is no need to break.
1:45:26And this is a systematic way to solve problems. On the chart on the right side, you can see that every time we add data, the performance improves. And then we can do this for every kind of task that we have in our system. And this is what we call as data engine. We identify challenging cases, such as the one you saw earlier.
1:45:46and there could be other different types of challenging cases too. We mined the fleet for such data, put it through our auto-lapping system, and produced the labels, added to the training set. And once you have the newly trained models, we're deployed on to the fleet. If we rinse and repeat this process, everything gets better and better.
1:46:12The final critical piece is the compute. In order to train these large models in a reasonable amount of time, you need lots of compute. In addition, compute is also required to produce the labels automatically. This is just compute data centers. In addition, we also have high compute computers
1:46:32in the car, which can run up to 150 tera ops of compute. On the back end, we have a 14,000 GPU cluster, and roughly 30% is used for auto labeling, and the remaining 70% is used for training. We also have a 30 petabyte of video cache, And this is growing to 200 petabytes. All of this is going to significantly increase once we bring Dojo, which is our training computer, on board into this.
1:47:01Just to give you a reference, just the occupancy networks that you saw earlier, use 1.4 billion frames to train these networks. We have already shipped our FSD beta software to pretty much everyone that has bought it in United States and Canada. This amounts to roughly 400,000 customers who can turn it on anywhere.
1:47:23And then the car would attempt to drive to the destination. It's still supervised. But it can already handle turns, stop by traffic lights, yield with other objects, and generally get to the destination. We have observed that people who use FSD are already 5 to 6x safer than the US national average.
1:47:44Like I mentioned earlier, the solution to scalable FSD is getting the architecture, the data, and the compute just right. And we have assembled a world-class team to execute on this. We're pushing the front here on these three items. And as we improve the safety, the reliability, and the comfort of our system, we can then unlock rivalness operations, which then makes the car be used way more than what it's used right now.
1:48:13Is that a right to introduce Elon back on stage to give some more updates?
1:48:28Yeah, this is the next video. It's going to weird seeing the arms and legs just separate. a whole lab full of arms and legs with bearing in mind that when we did AID, this version of
1:49:05Optimus didn't work at all. So the rate of improvement here I think is quite significant. It's obviously not doing parkour but it is walking around and we have multiple copies I suppose, of Optimus. The thing that I think Tesla brings the table that others don't have is that we have the real world AI.
1:49:45We're the most advanced in real world AI. So the same AI that drives the car, which you can think of, the car really is a robot on wheels. and this is a robot on legs. So as we solve real world AI, I don't think there's any, I don't think there's anyone even close to Tesla on solving real world AI.
1:50:09That same computer and software goes into Optimus. So it's so that helpful to have a humanoid robot if you have to program every individual action. It needs to be able to walk around autonomously and solve tasks. You should be able to instruct it in simple things by showing visually what the robot needs
1:50:34to do or just telling it what to do. So I think that's the key advantage that we have. And then we also are good at designing things for manufacturing and then manufacturing itself. So the actuators in Optimus are all custom designed Tesla actuators. So we designed the electric motor, the gearbox, the power electronics, obviously the battery
1:50:58pack, everything else that goes into Optimus. We were quite surprised to find how little was available off the shelf because there's a lot of a vast number of electric motors, gearboxes and whatnot, that are available in the world. And we found none of them were useful in a humanoid robot, literally none.
1:51:23So you have to custom design the actuators for a human-rayed robot. And so the same team that designed the groundbreaking electric motors that are in the, say, the model is plaid, designed the actuators in the robot. So I mean, for practical purposes, what this means is that we should be able to bring an
1:51:52an actual product to market at scale that is useful, far faster than anyone else. And assuming the things I'm saying are true, or at least, I think they are true, it's just a question of the timing. You start getting into interesting questions of, like what's the ratio of humans to humanoid robots?
1:52:17I think it might be greater than one to one, because you could sort of see a home use for robots, certainly industrial uses for robots, human-eyed robots. I think we might exceed a one-to-one ratio of human-eyed robots to humans. It's not even clear what an economy means at that point.
1:52:44Since an economy is output per person times persons, but if output is much higher and there's no limit on persons, then what's the actual limit on the economy? We're still pretty far from carto-shift scales here, but we're getting there. So anyway, so probably the least understood
1:53:11or appreciated part of what we're doing at Tesla, but will probably be worth significantly more than the car side of things long term. So charging. I think Rebecca's next board, talking more charging. Hi there. My name is Rebecca Tenucci and I lead our charging infrastructure teams here at Tesla.
1:53:49And at Tesla charging, we have understood since day one that a great charging experience is the linchpin to electric vehicle adoption. And that understanding has meant that we've always taken a holistic approach to charging. That's a word that you've heard a lot here today, but what it
1:54:04means for charging is that we've considered every use case. We think a lot about what it means to to charge at home, even if that home is an apartment or condo. And we spend a lot of time thinking about, what does it mean to charge away from home, including if that's for daily commuting or if you're going on a road trip?
1:54:19And this holistic approach has led to some pretty incredible results. In 2022, we provided nine terawatt hours of charging across our various charging methods. Over 50% of that was supplied via convenient AC home charging. And when our customers are away from home, can visit one of our 80,000 charging points. That includes 40,000 of our beloved superchargers.
1:54:42Now, getting here has meant that we've spent 10 years building charging infrastructure when basically no one else in the industry would do it. And while we certainly have a lot of areas that we want to improve, those 10 years have afforded us the opportunity to get pretty good at charging. First, we have the industry's lowest deployment costs. Our
1:55:02Our costs are often 20%, if not 70%, lower than alternatives. And that goes for both our supercharging hardware and deployments and our AC charging product lines. A lot of reasons that we're able to achieve this. You've heard a lot of them here today. We're vertically integrated.
1:55:18We manufacture and engineer all of our own charging equipment. We share components across our different product lines. And on the supercharger side, we also install and operate all of our own sites. And that's led us to be pretty obsessed with finding new ways to innovate around installation.
1:55:37As an example, we have recently extended our excellence in manufacturing to how we build supercharger sites. We are pre-building four post-supercharger units at our factory in New York. We load them on a truck, we truck them to site, and then we crane them into position. This method saves us 15% on our deployment costs, and we can install a site in a matter of days.
1:56:03Once we install a site, we also operate it really efficiently. Over the last few years, we've been able to cut our per kilowatt hour cost by 40%. Again, a lot of reasons for this. But one at the top of the list is we've focused on increasing our site utilization. Site utilization is just how many sessions or kilowatt hours can we push through a site or a post?
1:56:25And basically, doing that allows us to spread our cost over more sessions, thus lower cost per kilowatt hour. But of course, that's easier said than done because when we push up site efficiency, of course, the risk is that we have a poor customer experience and we have wait time at our sites.
1:56:42This is where Trip Planner comes in. Trip Planners are in vehicle routing or navigation system. Other electric vehicle manufacturers, well, some of them have vehicle-side data. Other infrastructure providers have site data, but at Tesla, we have both. And what that allows us to do is to use Trip Planner to route vehicles towards available sites away from congested sites so we can balance our utilization without risking wait time.
1:57:08And the results speak for themselves. Over the last few years we've been able to drive up site utilization by 30 percent. That means lower per kilowatt hour costs while also cutting our wait time in half. And we think this can get even better. Today we're feeding trip planner with real time site information and information about
1:57:25vehicles currently at sites. Going forward we'll be moving that to projecting site occupancy based on the understanding of what vehicles are currently routing to those sites. And ultimately, our vision for trip planner is that it's the air traffic controller for electric vehicle charging across all infrastructure on a global basis.
1:57:46And the last thing we focused on to get here is quicker charge times. We're really proud of what we've been able to accomplish here. We've shaved off 30% of our average supercharging site time, visit time, over the last few years. This has taken improvements on the hardware side, with our software, on our vehicles, and on our infrastructure, and we're really excited to continue pushing this trend down.
1:58:11Looking forward, the job does not get any easier. As you heard earlier, we aspire to a fully electrified global fleet. That fleet from an industry standpoint needs nine petawatt hours of charging on an annual basis. And while Tesla charging certainly doesn't have to supply all of that, It does require that for our part, we have a few new focuses in order to scale.
1:58:37First, if you want a fully electrified global fleet, all of those vehicles have to have a great and reliable charging experience. So as many of you know, recently we have started opening up our networks on a global basis. Over 50% of our superchargers in Europe are currently open to other electric vehicles.
1:58:58We've also opened up in Asia Pacific with our first sites in Australia. And just yesterday, we opened our first 10 supercharger sites here in North America and the US to other electric vehicles. We've also invested a lot to be able to make this a really easy experience for our new customers.
1:59:16All you have to do is sign into our Tesla app to unlock a post and start charging. We've also, on physical site changes, we've also added hardware to our sites. They're called Magic Docs. And basically, that is installed in areas where we have different charging standards. and they allow for other electric vehicles to come to our site without having to bring their own adapters or hardware.
1:59:36We've also just started installing our fourth generation supercharger posts. Those are being installed in Europe first. And while it's not a big mention, not a big thing to mention, they do have longer charging cables so that we can more easily reach the charge ports of different vehicles.
1:59:52The second thing we need to make sure we do when we talk about scaling all of this charging infrastructure is we need to make sure that it's powered from renewable sources. We're very proud that over the last two years, we've procured enough renewable energy to offset the amount of charging we've provided to customers.
2:00:10But as we look forward and we talk about this fully electrified fleet on a global basis, we really want to make sure that the demand for charging more closely follows when renewable sources are available. Now, this chart is on an aggregate basis for the US, and it varies based on what your renewable generation sources are locally.
2:00:28But basically, what this shows is we want to move that charging curve and for solar and wind in this example, it means more daytime charging. And we think the best way to go towards daytime charging is to install AC charging that is convenient and low cost. Everywhere vehicles are typically parked throughout the day.
2:00:50So that's really the plan. While supercharging and home charging definitely stay a big part of the puzzle, Our teams are currently scaling to install AC charging everywhere vehicles charged during the day so we can power them from renewable sources. So summing it up, while we've spent 10 years installing infrastructure that is low cost, it's efficient and it provides a great customer experience, we're really just getting started when we talk about supporting Master Plan Part 3.
2:01:19We've got a scale capacity on an industry-wide basis to nine petawatt hours on an annual basis. We've got to open up to non-tesals and make the charging experience for everybody really great. And we've got to power all of this via renewable sources. And one more thing. Yes, we've got to scale our infrastructure.
2:01:41And yes, we want to power it via renewable sources, but we're Tesla. So we also want to make sure that we're continuing to focus on providing really incredible charging experiences. With that, I want to welcome up our leaders of supply chain, Rishan and Khan to talk a little bit about that topic.
2:02:07Thanks, Rebecca. Hi, my name is Karn, and my team leads supply chain for electronics, powertrain, and battery at Tesla. And we've also got responsibility for indirect purchasing, construction procurement, and warehousing and distribution. Hi, my name is Roshan. I've been with Tesla for over 14 years.
2:02:32My team manages vehicle commodities, solar, logistics, planning, and capital equipment. 10 years, forgot that. So today we wanted to provide you a quick overview of Tesla supply chain and what really separates us from the typical automotive supply chain. As you've seen in presentations prior from Pete and Drew and some others, Tesla designs a lot of the subcomponents that go into our vehicles.
2:02:58So we're not buying things that are off the shelf from suppliers. So supply chain is not purely a commercial relationship as it is in most other companies. We actually have an arm within supply chain called supplier industrialization engineering. And the burden of taking a drawing, a design from concept,
2:03:16and turning it into thousands of products produced at the right cost and at the right yield, falls with this group. Of course, they work very closely with design engineering. But really, the level of detail that our engineers get involved in terms of building the capability of the suppliers is pretty detailed.
2:03:32So once we get a new part, naturally, with electric vehicles, a lot of the supply chain doesn't exist. Our engineers would basically take the drawing, turn it into the manufacturing concept, do the equipment selection, and physically go to the supplier and stay there for weeks or months.
2:03:49However long it takes to basically do the line bring up. Once the line is brought up and we're hitting the right rate, the right quality at the right yield, then we work on things like automation and yield improvement and those types of activities. So there's a big group of mechanical, electrical, industrial, you name it, engineers, within supply chain, and it's their responsibility
2:04:11to take care of this. Now this is a huge strategic advantage because we manage every detail of our supply chain because we're so integrated with our partners that we know about issues before they happen. It's almost live. We've got dashboards, we've got connections, and across the 10,000 or so factories across
2:04:30the world that are making our components, we have a pretty good view of the health of those suppliers. And this has been a key asset in how we've been able to kind of manage things through a lot of different issues over the past couple of years. So, you know, supply chain is a game of perfection. Perfection is a passing grade. It's like a, you know, if
2:04:52one part doesn't show up, that line goes down and our CEO finds out about it in less than 20 minutes. Tesla is very different than Apple. They outsource manufacturing, we do it in-house. the supply chain is kind of right in the middle. And perfection is increasingly elusive and very expensive
2:05:09if you kind of look at all the issues we've had to encounter over the past year. And today we're just gonna talk about how we got through the past and then what are we gonna do going forward and how are we gonna get there. So let me draw your attention to this slide. On the left you will see a portfolio, or existing portfolio of products, right?
2:05:32at the site you've got the SNX platform, in the middle you've got three and Y, I think everyone's more than familiar with those, and then the Tesla Energy platform, which is a very high rate of growth for us. And you see- Don't forget the solar and superchargers. And solar and supercharger, thank you, Roshan.
2:05:50And you'll see a reduction in, and then we've basically got the tier one and tier two parts, this might be boring, but tier one supplier is any supplier that builds and supplies parts directly for consumption in our five factories. And our tier two supplier basically does the same thing for a tier one supplier.
2:06:09So they are the supplier to our supplier. And depending on the supply chain of any one of these products, this can actually go down to the tier six levels. For example, if you're talking about the battery cell, we really get involved with the minds of like, where we're procuring the lithium, the cobalt, and all that sort of stuff because we're procuring such high volumes of it.
2:06:28So you'll see a reduction in the number of parts on the SNX platform to the 3&Y platform. And this is because of the great work our design engineers have done of making the car simpler and easier to manufacture. In parallel, we actually had a similar strategy in supply chain. We had cast a wide net to a lot of supplies for the SNX platform.
2:06:49There's a lot of supplies that we invited to partner with us. And we used that platform as sort of a filter to see which suppliers have the technical, financial, and cultural capabilities to match us, right? Like who do we invite to the party when we really scale things up? And we've really dramatically reduced the number of suppliers that we were dealing with for the 3NY platform, and this is an approach we'll continue to do for future platforms as they come along, that are even more high volume.
2:07:20So this has really been our approach. It's made things a lot easier. And we could figure out the suppliers that were capable of moving at our pace, and then the ones that didn't have the desire to order the capability. You need both desire and capability. Secondly, the complexity on the tier 2 level is very high.
2:07:43These are the suppliers to our suppliers. And there are a lot of components. Think about silica and think about resistors, capacitors, diodes, all the little assemblies. of the raw materials. Raw materials, that's even further down. But all these little sub-assemblies that have to come into Tesla, the complexity is immense.
2:08:01So even though at the tier one level, we're talking about 8,000 parts total, it seems like a lot, but it's not a lot. The management of the tier two is really where we excel. And I'd like to illustrate that with an example. Meet the car computer, very innocent sounding name, and it's anything but.
2:08:19This is an absolute monster to manage. So I think you've all seen the picture on the left of the autopilot board. That's the top of the autopilot board. The autopilot board also has a bottom and the bottom is populated heavily with components. On the other side of the heatsink, you've got the MCU, the multimedia cluster board.
2:08:39This board is equally complex. It's also double-sided, eight-layered. And these boards, these computers run so hot at peak operation that they have to be liquid cooled through a heatsink. So this assembly requires taking those two boards and then bonding them to a heat sink that's hermetically sealed as an assembly, of course flashing the software and all that sort of stuff.
2:09:00And then that's one part number that comes to Tesla. So this is an example of one tier one part number that's a very complex assembly to manage at the tier to the level. And there's more than 7,000 components here. There's a, you know, as we stand here, a component's being assembled onto a car computer, every 1.4 milliseconds, the line that builds this computer is the length of a football field.
2:09:25So it's quite complicated. And initially, when we first started building this board, due to the complexity of it, we had to rely heavily on labor. But once we dialed in the quality, the rates, and the yield, we started focusing on making this more efficient. The only way to control cost is by removing labor.
2:09:40The first step is removing labor. The second step is fully automating. The third step is turning off the lights and letting the factory run, ideally. And that's going to be the goal for us here. So 95% but our work is not done, we're gonna be going a lot further than this. So this illustrates the point that a part is not a part, a part has a lot of complexity underneath it, supply chain is a game of multiple tiers.
2:10:02And what's made us successful is our involvement in all the details with our supply engineers that are Tesla employees, they're Tesla supply engineers. So they're like on our payroll that go and ramp up these capabilities that are suppliers and then just managing each and every attribute of it.
2:10:17You know, 7,000 a day through the chip shortage, through the pandemic, through all the other stuff that we had to deal with, was very difficult to manage. But because we had all the details, we were able to pull this off. Of course, supply chain is not just about parts. It's also about logistics and a lot of other things.
2:10:34So I'll hand it off to Roshan for sharing some stats. Yeah, so talking about in-bought complexity. Just over the course of just last year, We moved about 16 million pallets from our suppliers to our factories. Just to visualize that, if you put those pallets side by side, it could cover the half the circumference of the earth.
2:11:00Talking about again, the tier 2 complexity, over 1 billion electronic components get moved every week to support the production that current team manages. This is right now, 1 billion components a week, 22 billion a year. This is going to go up, by the way. And on top of that, we also have the responsibility to make sure the right component is supplied
2:11:23to the right service location to support the growing fleet of our vehicles. And we have about 685 service centers that these components need to show up just in time. And then we've also been, as a result of pandemic and even before that, we've been working working on dual sourcing and triple sourcing some of our critical components.
2:11:49As a result of it, we have suppliers around 45 countries in the world. Yeah, approach really has been to bring the manufacturing of subcomponents closer to the point of consumption. It makes the supply chain more green because you're not burning diesel movement stuff around. And it also gives us the security of supply of having multiple sources in case one factory gets taken offline. And that's how we go through pandemicals.
2:12:09Yep. So last three years were incredibly hard. Karnan and I used to look a lot longer pre-COVID. But on a serious note, pandemic really changed the game of supply chain management. We were just not being a regular supply chain person. We were rolling up our sleeves and negotiating
2:12:34with state governments, city managers, mayors to help kickstart our suppliers to restart their operations. There are some really inspiring stories where our supply chain team really fought hard to make sure that the factories don't go down. And it's also a testament to the resilience of our supplier partners.
2:12:59Having said that, it was not all about resilience and never give up attitude. We had also laid the foundation of having dual sources. And also, in many instances, we had many things that we had simplified, the parts that we had simplified, the supply chain design that we had simplified, due to which we were able to get through the pandemic in much better shape than rest of the automotive.
2:13:35forced us to adapt. You know, we encountered issues one at a time. It was really a team effort. We heavily relied on the government relations team. You literally had to, the COVID pandemic, as you're aware, you know, happened at different countries at different times. But unfortunately, you need all the parts to make the car. So at any given point, there was one factory that was lying down, there was one jurisdiction that was being, you know, that didn't want to, they wanted to shut down a factory because they hadn't, you had an outbreak. So learning the rules, understanding, coming up
2:14:02up with argument points, leveraging the team and getting those. It was a difficult but good experience. Exactly. We learned a lot. Yeah, and as we were just figuring out to work with COVID, then the port congestion hit on the west coast. Logist six lead time went up by twice the amount and we were operating with less than 35% accuracy in the system.
2:14:24That means at any given point, the ETAs of the vessels were 75% off. So we figured out how to work with that and then the chip shortage hits. Yeah, the chip shortage. That was a nightmare. But we got through it. I mean, I think it's a testament to the tenacity of the team and the resilience of our supplier
2:14:46partners. It's mostly behind us and I think the results speak for themselves. Tesla was able to grow production volumes at a time where the rest of the industry had a hard time staying flat. I think they shrunk actually cumulatively And you know we're often asked the question how do we manage through it and and the answer is very much kind of baked through the presentations today
2:15:07First we design our own electronics. So in order to control cost We've really had to go and build relationships with all the tier two suppliers to negotiate them directly So these relationships are formed, you know, over 10 years ago, and we've really gotten to know them well. So when a shortage hit, we knew, you know, who to escalate to who to call, who to ask for help, and
2:15:28really kind of swarming the issue at the point of constraint. So the best team, you know, strong relationships with vendors, and then we also have a pretty sophisticated capacity planning function. Tier 2 capacity needs to come on earlier than tier 1 capacity. Tier 3 capacity has to be even earlier.
2:15:45And our team does a very good job of having that strategic alignment with all our partners to make sure that the capacity is ready before we need it. We're a mission-based company. Our goal is to put as many EVs out there. We did not let the pandemic phase us. We were full throttle and it was pedal to the metal in terms of our demand signal.
2:16:02That also helped the the silicon industry has very long lead times. They invest billions of dollars in sophisticated fabs that take years to build. So that stability and demand is something they appreciated and it's something that is very very much a Tesla thing So this was looking back, right? This is how we got here. This is how we got from zero to 40,000 cars a week
2:16:25Let's talk about how we get to 20 million So the question gets asked, you know Is Tesla gonna basically break the chip industry if he growed his 20 million vehicles the answer is no But let me walk you through a logic on that So as it stands right now, a Tesla enabled with a full self-driving computer has four times
2:16:44the silicon content of a regular vehicle. So at about the 2 million run rate, we're consuming about 700,000 12 inch wafer equivalents. That's the industry term that's thrown around for capacity in silicon. That's how much we're using. So a little below a million. And the global wafer capacity based on the estimates we've seen is about 135 million.
2:17:04So we're about half a percent off the industry. a lot. Now if you get to 20 million, when we get to 20 million, and if you don't make any simplifications in terms of PEP part count, which is also a separate work stream, I think Colin talked about it, Pete talked about it, we're not going to have all these different components, we're really going to simplify the architecture because simpler is better.
2:17:23But even if you don't do that, and we take the most pessimistic case, we're going to need 8 million wafers, okay? And the industry is going to scale to 200 to 200 million by that point. So still we're less than 5% of the market share. And if we've run the same offense we ran all along and continue to work with our partners and you know
2:17:40invest in fabs and invest in capacity we'll have the capacity ready by the time we need it so I really don't see this as an impediment from a supply chain perspective to get to 20 million. Now I would like to talk about a page that we took out of the electronic playbook and applied it to the mechanical side. Our
2:18:03vehicles use currently the heat pump based technology for the thermal system But before heat pump, our vehicles used to have a dispersed thermal system connected by hoses. Engineering was inspired from circuit boards and then created a system which was extremely integrated where 60% of the system was the size of a basketball site, basketball where
2:18:30it contained about 100 components, 50 ceiling interfaces and several different manufacturing processes all were packaged into this tight size. Now why are we talking about this? Well, we launched the system right during the outbreak of the pandemic in Model Y. The team was forced to manage 100 plus components from different suppliers around the world remotely.
2:19:01So there are four videos playing at the same time. One is the video of the manual line that was created when we started the production. And this manual line produced a lot of quality issues let alone throughput. So we quickly pivoted to a semi-automated line. But in spite of that, although the throughput was great,
2:19:27the quality issues sustained. So our team decided that fully automated is the only way to go. So before we automate the line, we created a 3D simulation. Now, not many companies or teams have this capability, where at this point, now when a part gets spec'd, we have the ability to create a 3D simulation of all
2:19:55the complex subassemblies that would be involved in making the part and tell the suppliers exactly what equipment to purchase, what to test, and create an end-to-end line in simulation. And that's what we did here. So with the help of a simulation, we had a very detailed subassembly cell, which was juxtaposed with the supplier's factory layout.
2:20:22And then we, after a back and forth of iteration and optimizing the processes, we implemented this fully automated line in less than eight months. And the results were remarkable. 99% reduction in labor force. So an align that would need 1,000 associates to build the super manifold in full volume now just takes 10 associates.
2:20:55And the quality also went up by an order of magnitude. We have a defect rate of less than 0.05% and a supermanifold rolls out every seven seconds because we have created many automated lines. And these factories are the size of two football fields, by the way. Russian had to one up me on that one.
2:21:1799% two football fields. So why are we talking about this? In a world where labor costs are increasing, Labor participation is decreasing. There is a huge turnover. And the cost of implementing automation is going down by 3x in the next 10 years. This is how we are thinking about complex assemblies.
2:21:43And we are going to push this type of thinking into our supply base more and more who will be building our complex assemblies. This is the only way we think we can confidently scale to the 20 million vehicles target. To summarize, we have laid the foundation in getting ready to execute Master Plan 3.
2:22:06Our strategy is supply chain design simplification. We are going to make sure that we have more control into the tiers of the supply chain. We are going to grow responsibly and sustainably with our long-term partners and we'll automate. Yeah, it's right. You know, going from zero to 40,000 cars a week was tough. I mean, it
2:22:30took a lot of trial and error. It took a lot of learning. There was a lot of pain. There's a lot of mental scar tissue, as Elon calls it, through that process. But now that we're at that level, then the foundation is set. Going from 40 to 400 is not gonna, it doesn't really phase us. We have a capable team. We've got capable external partners that have,
2:22:48you know, gone through hell with this. Leadership team is galvanized behind the mission, and we're we're going to get it done. So I'd like to thank you for your time and hand it off to Drew and Tom for the next presentation. Thank you. Hi, everyone. My name is Tom Drew. I'm now responsible for global production at Sales and Delibert Service.
2:23:15I joined the company back in 2014. And I've been running the company's business in greater China and APAC. Today, I'm representing all the Gigafactories and talk about how we can make more cars and faster. So right now, we have four vehicle factories on three continents to serve our markets.
2:23:37The total number of manufacturing employees is over 65,000. This is also including our amazing team in Reno. They are making power chains, battery packs and drive unit for our vehicle factories. The total installed capacity in all these vehicle factories, about 2 million cars a year.
2:23:53That said, we're always looking for opportunity to grow more capacity from the existing footprint. So you expect this number will grow over time. To build more factories is the start to build more cars. And we certainly the expert of it. This is before and after image showing you the progress we made back in 2019 when we built a gig factory in Shanghai.
2:24:19So in nine and a half months time, we built a greenfield project to establish the vehicle factory. And the three months later, we start deliver our first customer vehicle. People are asking me how Tesla can build a factory that fast. Really, we learned from our free manufacturer a lot.
2:24:40We talked to the survivor from the production hell and tried to avoid all the mistakes we made. And we decided to design a straight line with the minimum number of up and downs and turns for easier manufacturing ability and easier construction. We also challenged all the assumptions people ever know the build a vehicle factory.
2:24:59When we delete and simplified all the redundancies and buffers, that's helped us to save a lot of time. Also, we have a very strong in-house construction team in Tesla. If there ever a job cannot be done by others better, and we bring this in-house. So we have this in-house construction team have a full control over all the activities on sites from design engineering to construction, site management.
2:25:29So this team not didn't just build Giga Shanghai, they also built Giga Berlin, Giga Texas, and Giga Nevada. And they're really the hero behind the scenes. Like Lars shared earlier, going forward with the new platform, the more modular design and densified Giga factory will be to make more cars from even reduce the footprint.
2:25:54That also means we can build more factories at the same time. With the joint effort of all manufacturing teams around the globe, I'm happy to share early this morning with the 4 million mark for total Tesla ever built. And the 4 million-some vehicle actually built in this factory,
2:26:20when you took a tour on our shop floor, you probably worked past it. All right, so took us 12 years to build the first million vehicle. And about 18 months to build the second million, the third million took us 11 months. And just a shortly less than seven months we'll build the four million cars.
2:26:41So we're getting better at a faster exponential growth. Really cool to the team. So what it takes to ramp a gig of factory? Well, if you have 600 robots, 10,000 training employees, or 5,000 human and 5,000 optimists, and hundreds of processes, you can do it. Sounds simple, but it's extremely hard.
2:27:05So there's two key metrics that we predominantly focus on. It is the overall equipment effectiveness in the cycle time. In Tesla, we're setting the passing rate for our vehicle factories with 90% OEE and 45 second cycle time. What that means, the OEE really evaluates the equipment uptime, the machine performance and quality.
2:27:30Simply put, this is the actual production time on a good quality product versus the planned productive time, the higher the better. 45 second cycle time, that means you expect every 45 seconds as a car running off the final assembly line in the factory. And the faster we rent, the faster we can get to the economy and scale.
2:27:57If you look at the chart on the left, Shanghai, be able to significantly drop our labor hours per car during the rent. The little dip there is a happen in the last Q2 2022 because of the COVID shutdown. And on the right, it's a Fremont motorway shop. Even this is a 60-year-old facility, the team there still will be able to optimize the material flow, eliminate all the signal point of failure, and drive higher output, hence reduce the labor hours.
2:28:30And actually, this factory keeps sending a new record. Yesterday, they just had a new factory daily record. Congrats, Fremont team. Absolutely. So how can we reduce the cycle time, Keep improving efficiency. We follow the philosophy, Elon shared, about a building rocket, which is questioning, basically find the right problem to solve.
2:28:59And we start with delete, simplify, then we try to accelerate, pressurize the line, and find the solution that actually work. And at last, we think about automation. There's one example in Gigafactory Shanghai in the paint job. we find that there's overlap baking range between the PVC sealer and the top coat.
2:29:25It was done by two different ovens, and we decided to combine the two processes. Eventually, that helped us, didn't just help us to reduce the cycle time, but also save it a 9% of energy consumption and a 9% of CO2 emission. Also, we commonized the SNX design in Fremont. Right now we have a common body and common headlamp.
2:29:49We eliminated about 40 parts and reduced about 10% of the cycle time. So all these improvements really help us to get to a faster ramp trajectory. And we didn't just learn from these high volume existing factories. We also learned from the new factories. Most recently, our Greek Berlin factory team implemented a 5G private network on the shop floor, helping us to overcome about a 90% over cycle issues
2:30:22for a particular process in GA shop, we're gonna soon implement it globally. So right now we have an integrated global organization from production all the way to a thousand delivery service. This will help us to a strength feedback loop between manufacturing and the service. We obviously want to bring a delight for customer ownership experience to our car owners.
2:30:53And with this direct feedback loop, we'll be able to turn customer escalations and feedback into a quick action improvement on the shop floor immediately. With that effort in the past six months, we'll be able to reduce the time and service and early ownership service, also service a point of a week time significantly.
2:31:15So four factories, not enough. If we want to hit the 20 million car a year target, we're going to keep building new factories, new lines, and that will come up with new product as well. And with all gigafactories, now in one organization, we'll be able to replicate unified ideas across factories.
2:31:39Also, we will help the new factories that rev faster and also produce a better quality at the lower cost. Now I'm going to hand over to Ju, a talk about a cell manufacturing. Thanks, Tom. Yeah, we're not just talking about new vehicle factories, but also new cell factories. And we're going to talk about how we follow the same model when we do so.
2:32:03But first, I thought I'd just provide a little bit of an update on cell production. So remember, battery day, we showed this video with the spoon and how we went from dry powder to film. Let's just say there's no spoon now. So many of you in this room saw this on your tour today,
2:32:22but here is our dry electrode machine here in Texas, one of the lines we have installed here. Fully automated, no spoon from powder and foil into coated electrode out. From a peak productivity perspective, per tool perspective, this is over 20 times the productivity of the tools that we showed folks on the tour on Kato back in battery day.
2:32:43So we've made a lot of progress on the key, one of the key parts of the cell manufacturing process. And we've also continued to focus on refining the way we make cells and the factories that the cells go inside. As you can see on this chart, from typical 2170 cylindrical cells to 4680 made a huge leap, which is basically a 5x reduction in the factory footprint and volume end
2:33:09footprint. And then from going from what we did in Fremont and our pilot line to Texas, we improved further and we're improving again when we go into Nevada. And what this actually represents is a series of actions taken by a very integrated holistic design team across the product design, the manufacturing design, the process design, the equipment design and the facility design. They all need to work together to make this happen. And you can see
2:33:36on the bottom just as an example of simplicity up investment down and scaling up, you know, parts. We've reduced the number of parts in the cell, the number of processes, significant reduction of number of processes, and collaborating with those five design groups, we've been able to
2:33:51result, you know, build, end up with a factor that's 10 times smaller volumetrically, which means it's faster to get built, it's much lower CAPEX per gigawatt hour output, and we We can go and scale to our objectives of 240 total terawatt hours, one terawatt hour a year of stationary storage and 20 million vehicles a year with the scalability that is required
2:34:17to achieve our goals. And we're not just looking at the self-factor itself, but also upstream materials where necessary. What you see here is the rendering of the 50 gigawatt hour a year, Corpus Christi Lithium refinery that we've already broken ground on here in Texas. The facility will start commissioning
2:34:37by the end of 2023 this year. This is a good example of something where we're basically talking about breaking ground and starting commissioning within 10 months and with actual production within 12 months, that's the target, similar to what we did in Shanghai. Again, the result of collaboration and internal execution
2:34:59of construction and partnership with local communities. This site is 30 minutes from the Corpus Christi ports located directly on rail. The process we're taking is a direct soda ash leach of the input material, which means there's no acid roasting. We don't have any of the waste products associated with an acid roasting step.
2:35:23We're designed to consume lithium spodramine, which is a very commonly traded lithium rock. But it is flexible to other feeds from primary and secondary sources. And similarly, we're working on our cathode facility here in Texas. Maybe you've seen it as you're driving around, which is a 60 gigawatt hour a year cathode facility behind the main building here.
2:35:4210 month build time there as well. The equipment's being installed for the first line as we speak, and we'll be commissioning starting next quarter. So we are doing this where we need to. Our plan is not to do it always. There are lots of competent companies out there. But we are also trying to sort of accelerate the pace of the industry by trying some new things that are a little bit more scalable and de-risking certain innovations that improve productivity in terms of capx per gigawatt hour and things like that.
2:36:11And with that, I think that sums up our efforts on the factory side. Mike, you want to come up and we'll talk about energy? All right, all right, take it away. All right, here you can. Hello, everyone. My name is Mike Snyder. I lead our megapack organization. I've been with Tesla for almost nine years.
2:36:39I'm excited to talk to you today about the megapack product and the business and some of the exciting things we have ahead of us. From the beginning with this business, we have always focused on building successful projects for our customers, and not just the batteries in the box.
2:36:56We've built a hardware and a software platform that is able to adapt to environments all over the world, and that is able to scale from small island projects to large gigawatt hour scale batteries. We've invested our time and our talent to best understand every aspect, every step in the process,
2:37:16and every risk of a project, to ultimately provide a solution that is thoughtful, intuitive, provides great value to our customers, and is as plug and play as possible. And yeah, just looking at these projects, it's incredible to see them all come together in one montage. Seeing the future.
2:37:36Yeah, we've compressed. It's 10 years of building these projects, and it's incredible to see the impact and to see what we have in front of us. Absolutely. We're on our sixth generation of our industrial product, which is the Megapack XL that we're building out of Leithrip, California.
2:37:54We've deployed over 16 gigawatt hours of industrial and residential products across 50 countries. And really, Megapack is a market leader. It's best in class in efficiency, reliability, energy density, and easiest to install, lowest cost to install. And we call it Excel because it is actually the largest, heaviest object that you can transfer around the roads of the world without having
2:38:19to shut them down and get crazy permits and things like this. So it is extra large. There is not going to be an XXL. Let's just say it that way. There's been incredible demand for the project or for the product. 2023 is going to be a great year. We have gigawatt hour scale projects being built.
2:38:36The Lathrop factory continues to scale and ramp up and there's new products on the near-term roadmap. So a lot to look forward to. How did we get here? Number one, a maniacal focus on all aspects of delivering stationary storage. What do we mean by that? What are some examples? As you see here, the megapack enclosure, for one example, we designed the wireways directly
2:38:58into the base of the enclosure. So typically you need to install a bunch of conduits and cables under the ground. Now you can lift them up and install them directly into the base, increasing the speed of deployment and lowering the cost. Next, we see the batteries and the power electronics.
2:39:13And the power electronics is really the beauty and elegance of the megapack. So this is what converts the DC power to AC power on the grid. The brain is built directly into the product. It is able to connect to any grid in the world right out of the box. It allows it to all the megapacks on a given site to work as one unit.
2:39:36And really, it's what makes it what it is. I think it's the most incredible feature of the megapack. As you build out the full site, what we end up with is the most energy dense solution on the market, upwards of 300 megawatt hours per acre. And just as a frame of reference, this solution is two times more power dense than a typical
2:39:54gas speaker plant. So this is the future. This is where we're going. This is the product that retires the fossil fuels. Yep. One power plant at a time. We talk about power electronics a little bit more. Tesla is a leader in power electronics. We've deployed over 1.4 terawatts across energy storage and vehicle.
2:40:16And we deliver more power electronics than the solar and the wind industry combined on a peranem basis. And power electronics, it's hard to overstate how impactful they are. They are really the glue in the sustainable energy economy between generation, storage and the end use. Those power electronics devices are switching thousands of times per second, hundreds of thousands of times per second, to efficiently react to whatever is needed, either in the
2:40:44car in the grid. And because they are so like sort of software driven at their core, they can provide functionality that hasn't been available to the grid in the past. And it's one of the reasons why renewables and stores together are such a great solution. Yeah. And one reason that we focus on power electronics and control so much is because
2:41:04of the impact that it has on the projects directly. So just as an example here on the left, we have a firmware feature that we call virtual machine mode. And what virtual machine mode is, is it contributes to grid stability, like a car shock absorber, that dampens oscillations or vibrations
2:41:24and keeps the ride smooth. So you can imagine if you don't dampen those vibrations, the vehicle could lose control or someone could get hurt. On the grid, you could have a blackout. We have one grid operator that's utilizing virtual machine mode and said they will not operate their grid at 100% renewables unless they have this feature, unless they have virtual machine mode working.
2:41:45Yeah, and what? They tried and it didn't work very well. And virtual machine mode, it's like synthetic inertia. You turn the battery power plant into, like through software behaving like it's a giant spinning machine, literally. And that inertia stabilizes the grid. But you don't need a giant spinning machine.
2:42:05You don't need like a huge fossil power plant or a giant hydro turbine. You just have the battery do it. And you can program it to whatever you need at that part of the grid, or even have it be dynamically changing as the grid conditions change. Right. And that's why we focus so much on it.
2:42:17We believe it's the future of how batteries are going to add value. It's going to be more about adding power stability, just as it is about energy. Yep. Yep. Auto Bitter is another software feature I wanted to mention. Auto Bitter is an autonomous energy trading platform that in its most basic sense is buying energy low and selling it high, and the owner can net the difference of that.
2:42:36But operating battery storage is actually very complex. Upwards, needing upwards of hundreds or even thousands of decisions every five minutes, it's much more complex than a PV solar plant, or a wind plant, or a thermal battery, or a thermal generation plant. And it's mostly because of the versatility and the ability of the battery to provide so much value in different ways that these decisions need to be made in real time in order to optimize and get the most value out of the batteries that can.
2:43:05So there wasn't a solution that existed in the market, so we built one ourselves. In the market that we've deployed them in, in Australia, in Texas, in the UK, it has proven to be a market leader. We're continuing to invest in auto-bitters as we expand to new markets. Second point of how we got here, a relentless focus on speed of execution, and there's two points to be made here.
2:43:27First one is in building factories. What you're seeing here is a time lapse of the mega-factory that was built in Lathrop. We took it from a JCPenney distribution center to a world-class manufacturing facility in less than 12 months, which is incredible. And really, the way that we did this is similar to what my colleagues have described.
2:43:47It's leveraging the vertical integration of Tesla. It's getting the vehicle manufacturing team in the same room as construction and engineering and making decisions quickly with all the stakeholders and decision makers. We're using the lessons learned from Lathrop as we speak, as we plan for our next factories.
2:44:06Second, it's about installing projects faster. I've mentioned this already, but plug and play is kind of at the core of what we're going for. Over the past four years, we've increased the installation speed by 4X, and we've reduced the total labor involved across both construction and manufacturing by 3X.
2:44:27We think that this is key to unlocking our ability to scale and our customers' ability to scale with us. We need to be laser focused on reducing that time from when the megapack leaves the factory to when it is operational on the grid. And it's not just about centralized storage.
2:44:46It's also about distributed storage, the future roadmap of, well, at least here at Tesla. And maybe some of you know about this sort of retail plan we have here in Texas, and I just wanted to talk a little bit about how that all fits together. So Tesla Electric really unlocks the full value of distributed energy and storage products.
2:45:06So it enables our customers to become their own utility. The data on the page is from our South Australia virtual power plant, another Tesla electric setup that we have. Over 2022, it's 5,000 customers that we have the data for. You can get a sense for what's happening. So just if they were being provided default utility service and you looked at the cost of serving them that electricity, on average $140 a month.
2:45:33If they all had solar and power wall, but the solar and power wall wasn't interacting with the grid, wasn't participating in the energy market, The cost of serving that customer would go from what would have go from $140 a month to $70 a month. If you if Tesla electric is operating those assets in an intelligent way to benefit the grid, Tesla electric being basically a software that we developed out of auto better for the purposes of of these distributed energy resources, we can actually pay the customers to bring their their
2:46:02their energy services to the grid. That's what happened in Australia last year. Australia is a little bit of a special case. They represent the future, South Australia in particular. Solar and wind supplied 70% of South Australia's energy in 2022. That compares to 30% in Texas and 35% in California.
2:46:20But this is an indication of where this is all headed. Of both centralized and distributed storage resources, providing the key to unlocking fully renewable grids. And Tesla Electric is the retail plan that we're using to bring that to bear for our customers that have our products.
2:46:43And, you know, this is how we're rolling it out. First, as it exists, it's available in Texas for people who have powerwalls in their homes. But we need to extend beyond that. Over a billion people live in markets with competitive retail electricity. And there's over two trillion in annual energy spend in these markets.
2:47:04This is a huge opportunity. And our intention is to bring this to market by market. And the same way that we've approached Tesla insurance, where we can bring value to our customers to reduce their total cost of ownership of our products. So actually what we're going to do next, and this is pretty exciting here in Texas by this summer, we're going to offer a retail electricity plan to people who have our cars where they can have unlimited overnight home charging for $30 a month.
2:47:33This is part of reducing the total cost of ownership of our vehicles. And the reason why we can do this is because Texas has a ton of wind. And in Texas, the wind blows at night. So actually serving these customers with electricity at night for their cars is the best thing to do for everyone.
2:47:49And so this is a way to incentivize people to charge at home at night directly from renewable power. It's part of the grand master plan we talked about at the beginning. So we're very excited about this. And we do see this similar to Tesla insurance, as I said, as further reducing the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles.
2:48:07So putting this all together, we're really at the beginning of this massive ramp in energy storage deployment. And yeah. Yeah, reflecting back on the master plane, we talk about tens of terawatt hour, needing tens of terawatt hours of stationary storage. So we have our sites set on annual production rates of one terawatt hour, which is 25x our capacity at Lathrop.
2:48:28In the near term, we see really strong demand for the Megapack product over 100 gigawatt hours per year, in 2023 and growing by over 100 gigawatt hours per year over the next few years. So the demand is there. And naturally, as we continue to focus on cost and speed and the value of the things that we've mentioned, it's clear we need to build more capacity and we need to ramp it quickly.
2:48:50So while the challenge is big, it's also a huge opportunity for Tesla, it's a huge opportunity for the Megapack business. And I'm excited to see the impact that it's going to make on our grid transition. As am I. Yeah. All right. All right, thank you. Thank you all. Yes. All right, and, Lori, Brandon, come on up.
2:49:19Hi, I'm Brandon with the legal team. Thank you. Not just for coming but being investors. Now we have an active and engaged board and management team. We've met with you. And today is the culmination of that. We've heard you, which is why we're excited to share this investor day with you.
2:49:38Now you will hear more from our board at the appropriate time, but for now, I'm excited to introduce Lori Shelby, who's going to discuss sustainability in our employees. Lori? Thank you, Brandon. Hi, everyone. My name is Lori Shelby, and I lead the Environmental Health Safety Security and Sustainability Team.
2:50:01I've been with Tesla for five and a half years. So I'm going to talk about Tesla's impact. And of course, that starts with our awesome team members. So you've heard a lot today about our amazing products, our process, our software. You've seen lots of numbers and lots of graphs.
2:50:24You've also heard a common theme. And that common theme is that Tesla's team is what drives our success and makes a difference. Whether you're in our factories, in our sales service and delivery centers, our warehouses, or in the field, you can see and you can feel the collaboration that's happening.
2:50:46And you also can see the pride that everyone has in working for Tesla. So before I go on, I want to give a big shout out and a thank you for our Tesla team globally. So that was great. That was great. So we are creating a lot of meaningful work through our jobs. We're a huge employer and we're growing every day.
2:51:20We're at 129k. And more than half of our team works in vehicle manufacturing. And almost 60% of our team is based in the US. People want to join our mission. And we need to grow and we need to hire the best people. Engineers wanna work for Tesla. Look at number one and number two, SpaceX and Tesla.
2:51:53In 2021, we got three million applicants. Three million, that's incredible. And our culture, our culture at Tesla is anyone at any time can raise an idea or make an improvement suggestion across safety, people, cost, production, quality. Because we have a very simple process called take charge and take charge as really employee
2:52:28engagement. And as take charges go up, as you can see in this graph, injuries go down. And you know why? who do the work, the people who do the work know how to improve the work. Sustainability, sustainability is everything. It's our mission. You've heard about it all day, part of our master plan.
2:52:51But at Tesla, we don't just tick boxes to meet a requirement. We really focus on the impact that our products and our software will deliver. In 2021, our customers avoided 8.4 million metric tons of greenhouse gas. That's equivalent to taking 1.7 million ICE vehicles off the road for a full year.
2:53:23Yes. Yes. We're also focusing on doing really good work and driving sustainability into our operations. We have year-over-year reduction in our water use, in our waste, and we're growing and building a renewable energy program within our operations just like supercharging, as you heard.
2:53:52So it's not just about our products, it's the way we make our products, both phases. Tesla, our company, is solving both sides of the clean energy equation. We've got the clean generation, the clean storage. We also have zero emission transport. As this slide shows, from 2012 to 2021, our products generated more energy that was consumed
2:54:21by all Tesla vehicles and our factories. It's amazing. Yeah, I like the claps. Yeah, I'll take claps. I'll take claps. So, our vehicles use less emissions than gas powered vehicles. Even in the worst case scenario, 100% coal grid, the Model 3 has less emissions than the average ice car.
2:54:51And we're only going to get better. You heard about that today. Every product we make is more efficient. Every factory we build is more sustainable. So it's only going to get better and better. So as we build our zero emission future, we've been talking with our stakeholders, with
2:55:14their shareholders about how do we improve our reporting framework? And we are aligning with the TCDF. So TCFD. So we're aligning with the TCFD, which I know many of you have been asking us about. I also want you to stay tuned because there's going to be much more coming in our impact
2:55:40report. So thank you all. Up next is Zach Kirkwood. Thank you, Laurie. All right. So this is our last section of our prepared remarks today. We'll kind of take what we've discussed today and summarize it at the corporate level for our financials. Maybe before I jump into the details here, we've never done an investor day as a company.
2:56:16We've never brought our leadership team out and asked them to talk about the things that they're working on. So, you know, I feel very fortunate to be able to work alongside this group of people and support their teams. And I also just want to thank them. They're in a room in the back listening to this for all of the work that they put into today and getting the company to where it is today.
2:56:36So, thank you to the Tesla team. When we were preparing for today, folks were asking, well, Zach, what should we talk about? And really, the only guidance we gave folks is, well, talk about the things that you're working on and talk about it in the context of the master plan. And what did almost everybody talk about today in great
2:57:03detail, all of the work that they're doing to take cost out? Because in this industry, in this business, you survive or you die based upon the ability to manage your costs. And so I'd like to talk about cost as well. If we look at our longest running scale production product, this is the Model 3, we reached 5,000 cars per week, which was our design capacity
2:57:29in mid-2018. And since then, we've taken 30% of cost out of this product. And there's two points I want to make about this. The first is that cost reduction, as you have heard throughout the course of the day, is deeply ingrained in our culture. And I think one of the most important reasons why we are here today as a company.
2:57:50The second point that I want to make is that when we're working on cost reduction, it's easy just to take cost out and make our products worse. But we have to take cost out and improve our products at the same time. This is the hard thing to do, but it's the necessary thing to do to continue to move forward.
2:58:09And if you look at a version of a Model 3 that we built today, and you compare it back to a Model 3 that we built in 2018, there's a long list of improvements that we put into the car while also taking cost out of the product. Cost reduction doesn't just come from one place. There's no silver bullet here.
2:58:29And we push the boundaries on volume with the Model 3 program, increasing volume 3x over this period of time. We've improved productivity. So in our Fremont factory, we are twice as productive now as we were in mid-2018. We've made a lot of progress on overhead efficiencies and product improvements as we've discussed.
2:58:47And a long list of other things, including localization, our factory in Shanghai. And as we ramp up volume and as we find efficiencies, we work with our suppliers to do the same. And that leads to material cost reductions that improve the affordability of our products. And as we look forward to our next gen vehicle, our target is to reduce 50% of cost, and we've talked about that a bit earlier today.
2:59:12From going from the Model S and X platform to the three and Y platform, we took out 50% of cost, so the task here is to do it again. And this is very important because as we improve affordability, the number of customers who have access to our products dramatically increases. And as we link this back to our master plan, it enables an exponential growth in our volume with linear reductions in the cost of our products.
2:59:39The second point I'll make here is that, and again, cost reductions don't come from any single one place. And so you can see the buckets here on the vehicle side, battery and powertrain, manufacturing cost reductions in others. These buckets are relatively equal in size. And so in order to take 50% of the cost out of the product, we have to go through everything.
2:59:59But more importantly than just the cost of the car upfront, when we're transitioning to a sustainable economy, particularly with vehicle ownership, it's really important to think about the lifetime cost of the products. And this chart here is showing what the total cost of ownership per mile is over the course
3:00:26of five years. And we have to think about financing costs, insurance costs, the cost of power. We do talked a little bit about that with the plants that we're doing in Texas, wear and tear and maintenance on the cars, et cetera. And we're already at a place today in the U.S. where a base model, three on a cost per mile basis, is less than a Toyota Corolla, which is the highest selling car in the world.
3:00:49And as we move towards our next-gen platform, we will continue to reduce this. And as we work on robo-taxi variants of this platform, this cost will come down even further. And so this is a product that we expect to have substantially lower cost per mile than the highest volume products in the world.
3:01:09The next thing on cost reduction I want to talk about is operating expenses. We spend a lot of time on our earnings calls talking about gross margins and product cost. We don't spend a lot of time talking about OPEX, but I think this is one of the really important parts of our story.
3:01:23So since 2018, we've reduced our non-gap OPEX, 60% as a percent of revenue, and 75% on a per delivered car basis. This is quite staggering, and I want to go into the details about how we've done this. The first component of OPEX, which is R&D, the single most important thing here is that we constrain the number of programs that we work on.
3:01:48So minimizing the number of programs that we're running in parallel, and the key here is to maximize the revenue and cash generated from every program that we work on. And also maximize the technology sharing between the programs. So we talked a little bit about how power electronics and our energy business is shared with power electronics and our vehicle business.
3:02:09If we look at the SGNA side of this, I think the story here is pretty dramatic. So we're showing here a comparison of SGNA per car delivered compared to the traditional auto industry, which is both an OEM and the dealership network. And our estimates are that we're 60% to 70% lower on a per car basis.
3:02:28And if you turn this into dollars, this is many thousands of dollars per car. This is part of the reason why on the last earnings call, I made the comment that we think about operating margin, more so than gross margin as a company, because the integration that we have here on the SG&A side, particularly with vertical integration into our dealership network, this provides efficiencies that give us a competitive advantage
3:02:53from a cost structure standpoint relative to other companies. The other thing that I'll note here is that this wasn't always the case. And it wasn't that long ago where these bars would be inverted. And if we go back a little bit in time, and we talk about when we launched Model 3 in the Fremont factory, we went from 2,000 cars per week, which was SNX,
3:03:14adding 5,000 a week to that for Model 3. Got us to 7,000 cars a week. You've heard some folks here today talk about production hell, but I don't think we've ever talked about as a company as back office operations hell, which also happened at the same time. And 7,000 cars a week, 350,000 cars a year,
3:03:33we want to go to 20 million cars a year, and we're struggling at 7,000. And we're saying to ourselves, we have to completely rethink the way that we're managing our back office operations if we have any hope of efficiently scaling this company. And so this began a process that we're still continuing to work on today, but it's something that we refer to as the Tesla operating system.
3:03:55So in the same way that we're vertically integrated into the software that manages our cars, we've also vertically integrated into the software that runs our company. And all of our major departments in the company are using, not all of them yet, but almost all of them are using our in-house software.
3:04:12Most recently, we removed third party recruiting software and we're now running our own recruiting software as a company. And this matters a lot because rather than having a complex web of third party systems that are generic solution that take a lot of effort customized for our particular needs, we've been able to put in place with an in-house
3:04:30applications engineering team dedicated lightweight software that does only what we needed to do and nothing more. And that team works very closely with process improvement teams that sit within the business, who are looking through all of the processes that we're managing as a company and following
3:04:47the exact same process that Tom mentioned in the manufacturing space to look at our processes, process steps that we don't need, simplify process steps that are existing, and automate what's remaining. And the results of this have been quite staggering, to be frank. I think it succeeded our expectations as well.
3:05:07On the left side of this chart are some examples of the efficiency improvements that we've seen within our SGA areas as a result of this strategy. The North American sales team is four times more efficient now than they were in 2018. What are operations team financial services? I mean, these levels of improvement are large, and there's none of pixels on the slide here
3:05:27to list out everything, so it's just a couple of examples. And then in the same way that when we look to take cost out of our products, we want to feature up the product or improve the product while taking cost out, the same has been true with the use of Tesla operating system and that integration with our process improvement
3:05:45teams within the company. And so we've increased performance and added capabilities while also dramatically reducing cost on a per car basis. There's a list of self-service functionality that we've put in place, which customers like and also simplifies our operations behind the scenes.
3:06:02We've used the Tesla operating system to expand into our captive insurance base, which we are fully vertically integrated into. We run our own in-house software. We have our own agents, our own claims software, and claims folks who run our insurance business. This is also very important because as a technology company, data is very important.
3:06:22And we use these systems and the access to the data in those systems to pull out extremely granular and targeted reporting that enables us to see every aspect of our business in real time so we can make adjustments to our operations as needed. And there are some times examples where we say, man, I wish we were tracking this piece of data.
3:06:40Well, you know, it's a team's meeting away from the applications engineering team to make a request and then we can start tracking that data and make those changes. And so the feedback loop associated with process improvement inside the company is pretty astounding. The last thing I'll just mention here, which is something I'm personally quite proud of, we've made a lot of progress in our closed processes within the finance team, getting
3:07:03our 10Q and 10K filed. It's amongst the fastest of the 20 largest market companies. So great work to the finance team here. So all of this work on cost reduction is extremely important because we have a lot of money to spend ahead of us to achieve our goals within the master plan.
3:07:24So we've mentioned over the course of the day-to-day 20 million annual vehicle production as our target, one terawatt hour of annual energy storage production, and then expanding cell production service and charging in line with the growth of those other businesses. And so we've estimated what we think the total cost to get there will be, and there's certainly
3:07:43error bars around these numbers as we continue to progress and innovate. But of this, we've spent about $28 billion of that so far in the history of the company. And maybe this total investment looks large. I actually think it's quite small relative to our ambitions. And if you look at our 2022 operating cash flows, and you just say, well, let's assume some
3:08:05modest growth to that, maybe not all that much, if you're being conservative, but the ability to pay for this level of investment from the forecast that we have is very achievable for us. I'm often asked about capital allocation. I think our strategy here is very straightforward.
3:08:27I touched upon it a little bit in our last slide, but just to be explicit about it. Obviously, the priority here is to ensure that we're using capital to run the day-to-day operations of the business. is a working capital intensive business and this has to be managed very carefully.
3:08:45And so, you know, over the course of a quarter there can be multi-billion dollar swings and our cash balance up and down just depending upon the timing of when we build and deliver cars. So we obviously have to have money set aside for that. Downside protection is another really important area where we have money set aside for that.
3:09:01And over the last couple of years throughout the pandemic I think this just highlights why being ready for downside protection is important. Preserving daily operations is the engine that then generates cash that allows us to reinvest into the growth of the business. And I'm very proud that over the last couple of years, despite the ups and downs in the macro environment and interruptions to supply chains, we have never once pulled back on our
3:09:27investments and growth. So that remains a huge priority for us. We do then, after investing in growth, we look at opportunistic ways to spend our cash. are more financially oriented where if a return exceeds a hurdle, then we can place cash in that. This is part of our story of cost reduction in the Fremont factory.
3:09:47And then on the excess side, you know, this is where, you know, the board meets on a regular basis and thinking about what our cash flow projections are looking forward and whether it makes sense to do buybacks or dividends. So to wrap up the finance portion of the presentation today, a couple of key messages I just want
3:10:09I'll leave you all with here is that we use innovation at an intense level to drive cost down and improve the efficiency of the business. And the reason this is so important is it allows us to improve product affordability. And this is particularly the case when we move to our next generation platform.
3:10:30Improving affordability allows us to comfortably make investments that grow volume, that volume, generates cash that then allows us to make more investments. And as we integrate that going forward, it's our belief as a leadership team here at Tesla that we're going to achieve unprecedented scale in the manufacturing space.
3:10:53And this is what's ultimately required to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. So with that, this completes the prepared portion of today. We're going to take a short break, and then we'll resume with the live Q&A. Thank you all very much.
3:21:29Well, let's see. So this is probably the most significant announcement of the day is that we're excited to announce that we're going to be building a Gigafactory in Mexico.
3:21:48Yeah, and we'll have a grand opening and groundbreaking and whatnot. But we're excited to announce that the next Tesla Gigafactory will be in Mexico near Monterey. So I'm so excited about it. Now, I do want to emphasize we will continue to expand production at all of our existing
3:22:14factories, so including California, Nevada, here in Texas, obviously, and Berlin, Shanghai. So we intend to increase production at all factories, so the Giga Mexico would be supplemental to the output of all the other factories. So this is not to be clear. the output from anywhere to anywhere.
3:22:37It is simply about expanding total global output. Yeah, so it's gonna be good. So, peanut gallery. Anyway, so I think that's, yeah, we're quite excited to announce that. In fact, I believe the governor is here. It's hard to see. Welcome. Secretary of State, I believe. So at the end of the day, we're looking forward to it and having a big event for the great groundbreaking and opening.
3:23:21So let's see, with that, we can move to, I guess, Q&A. We've obviously got significant bench strength here. We should probably hit like a bench. And anyway, we maybe have too many people on stage, but we'll try to answer questions within reason. This is meant to be kind of more of a long-term sort of discussion as opposed to, you know,
3:23:51what will be the production for the rest of the quarter type of thing. So let's try to orient our questions towards long-term value creation. And with that, far away. Rob? It's Rob Lash for the Wolf Research. Very exciting plans about the next generation vehicle and power trains and batteries.
3:24:22I was hoping you can maybe talk to us a little bit about the timeline for deploying this. It sounds like it's more than just a vehicle. This is kind of a paradigm change on how vehicles are assembled, how batteries are put together and everything. Does that also just get reconfigured into everything that you do?
3:24:44The model-wise that are being built here will be built very differently in the future. Maybe just give us some feel for what happens from here and what's the timeline for implementation. Well, I'll talk a little bit about that, but broadly speaking, the most profound architectural changes will be in future vehicles.
3:25:06Retooling a factory means bringing the factory down for an extended period of time, and that's preferred not to do that, I think. But there are variants in how Model Y is produced, so we've got variants where there's a rear casting, where there's a front and rear casting, and we have the structural battery pack.
3:25:32And then there are a number of smaller improvements that occur. But I think for really big changes, those would be future vehicles. Yeah, I don't know if you guys want to add. as far as maybe? Me? Yeah, so as far as I agree with you, 100% Elon, it's really easy to put innovations in new vehicles, but long term.
3:25:56We'll obviously bring them back. We've always talked about that, but we don't want to take our factories down. As far as the timeline goes, we're going to go as fast as we can left to right. As always, Elon alluded to the fact that Mexico will build our next-end vehicle, but we will also be doing that in our other plants.
3:26:13And so it's really about getting them all up and running. We expect that to be a huge volume product. And now we're going to move that quickly over the next couple of years. Let's go through all of them. Thanks. First, Enora Buena, Mexico. Marmos. That's great. Congratulations. Elon, a question on applying first principles thinking
3:26:45and innovation to an area that up to now has seemingly been outside of your control. And that is on mining and extraction of some of the key materials. I believe a couple years ago you had a patent on sodium chloride to extract lithium from some clays and spodumine clay and things of that nature.
3:27:05How does that fit into the plan of maybe bringing real innovation into a mining sector that could use a little, maybe waking up and getting those costs down? Because that could be a real gating factor, it seems. Well, we're going to address whatever we think the limiting factor is at any point in time.
3:27:24So we would like to do the least amount possible. So we don't want to get into the mining or refining sector. We will do that if we have to. I do think the focus really should be on refining capacity. We need to make just a very giant amount of anode cathode, lithium hydroxide, lithium
3:27:55carbonate. It's really the refining capacity that is the biggest choke point. Yeah. So that's why we're building a lithium refinery in Corpus Christi. In terms of the mining companies that are out there and looking at that part of the value chain, so we do have large suppliers of lithium right now and they are aware of
3:28:24how we're approaching the corpus refinery and the technologies we're trying there. The reason we're making them aware of it is because we think they're fundamentally more scalable and as we prove them out, we plan to share that with them. because as Elon says, it's not really like we want to do these things.
3:28:41We're doing that because it's not happening fast enough. So if we can prove that it can be done faster, the intention is to transfer that knowledge to our large, our current suppliers. And the same is actually true. It was actually a clay process that we were playing with and we continue to work on.
3:28:56Same is true on that. So we've worked with our suppliers as well on trials and we're sharing knowledge there. And the intention is just to help the whole world do this better. And ultimately, this here is getting the lithium out, or whatever it is out of the ore. And we're obviously building a cathode processing facility
3:29:19just adjacent to this building. So a little further down the road, you'll see another large construction. That's for cathode refining. But we'd like to really prefer if others did that, we're doing it because we have to do it because we want to. Yeah. And in that case, there just isn't really any large scale cathode production in the United States, and it needed to be done.
3:29:43And again, if we're gonna do it, we're gonna try to do it from a first principles perspective. So we have tried a bunch of new things there. We're confident that they will work. And as they prove out, again, we want to bring them back to our suppliers so that they can build new facilities more quickly with less investment.
3:30:02Right, let's go to Ben. Hi, Ben Kalifer-Barrant. So similar on the renewable side, Is there more that you can do in Tesla to nudge the rest of the renewable industry to speed up since it's such a pillar of the master plan three? Well, I mean, I don't know what we can do, but I can say that if there's like entrepreneurs out there
3:30:30that want to have like a guaranteed transfer of success, it would be refining lithium or anode and cathodes or any materials whatsoever for lithium ion cells. It has no brainer. Yep, I think we're doing everything we can. Yeah, on the renewable energy thing, the thing that we can do Tesla is the more we reduce the cost of storage, the more we reduce the cost of stationary storage, and the more we bring flexible load to the grid in the form of cars charging at the right times, the more valuable renewables are.
3:31:13Because in Texas right now, I wasn't joking. There's a lot of wind. And at night, wind is, there's almost too much wind, because they don't want to turn the nukes off or whatever. So bringing really low-cost storage onto the grid makes renewables more valuable, which ultimately will accelerate their deployment.
3:31:34So that's how we focus on it, I guess. Felipe? Thank you. It's Fiti Bushwa, Jeffries. I've got two questions. The first one, when I think about in this industry, everybody wants to be Tesla. Every comic or is trying to emulate what you're doing. Well done. The one thing they don't do is focus on having as much growth
3:32:08as possible with as few models as possible. So I'm just trying to understand, as you aim for 20 million units in 2030, how many models do you think you need to get there? And how does it fit into your drive to hyperscale? How do you manage this? And also the fact that probably consumers at some point don't want to see a Tesla, the same Tesla, every street corner.
3:32:32So I'm just trying to get your sense of that. And my other question is on bidirectional. I mean, you talked a lot about making a world more renewables and better usage of cars. I think bi-directional charging is one way of better using cars, but you seem to have been reluctant about doing that in the past.
3:32:52So I'm just wondering what your latest views are on the topic. Sure. On bi-directional, it wasn't like a conscious decision to not do it. It just wasn't a priority at the time, I think is maybe the way to think about it. As we continue to improve the power electronics in our vehicle,
3:33:17we've found ways to bring broader actionality while actually reducing cost of power electronics in the vehicle. And at all things, Tesla, the goal is usually to get more for less. And so we are in the middle of kind of like a power electronics retool, I would say, that will bring that functionality to our vote, all of our vehicles over the next two years, let's say.
3:33:43Yeah, I guess that's how I'll say that. I don't think very many people are going to use bidirectional charging unless you have a power wall. Because if you unplug your car, your house goes dark. And this is extremely inconvenient. Yeah, most of the value it comes in charging the car at the right time.
3:34:02It's not really about sending energy the other way. Yeah, I mean, if you have a power wall that can take the house load, then you can use your car as a supplementary energy source to the power wall. And then, you know, you're not going to drive want crazy by unplugging your car, you have in the house go off.
3:34:23So I think there's some value there as a supplemental energy source down the road where if you have a power wall you've not diminished the convenience of the people in the house. And the question of number of models? How many models? Oh, I do. I do. Not that many. Really, ten? I don't know.
3:34:50Not that many. money. What's happened with conventional cars is people run out of things to do. So you run out of things to do, they just end up reshuffling the deck and you have pretty much the same. How many variants of car are there on the road? It feels like hundreds. But are they
3:35:13good variants? No, mostly not. They're just variants for the sake of variants. But look How is, how things converged with the phone? There needs to be hundreds of flip phones. Now what do we have? It'll be like that. George? George, Generechus from Canichor, Genoti, just had a question about your plans to grow market share in China, and also whether or not the political tensions
3:35:47between the United States and China impact your long-term ambitions there. Thank you. Hey, Tom, don't sweat too hard. Yeah. Well, we're still growing our market share in China, quite strongly, actually. Especially, you know, earlier this year, we had a price adjustment. After that, we actually generated a huge demand more than we can produce, really.
3:36:23And as Elon said, as long as you offer a product with value at affordable price, you don't have the word about demand. That's basically the philosophy that we follow. We try everything to cut costs from supply chain, from improved efficiency in the factory, and to pass down that value to our customers.
3:36:49I think as long as we're continuing to do that, I'm not too concerned about the in the market share in China. In the second part, geopolic, no one else. We do our best. We actually created a lot of jobs to look community. And we also, at our suppliers, factories will create a lot of jobs as well, and contribute a lot to the local economy.
3:37:19I think as long as we're needed in this country, I don't see there much of the risk of that. Colin? Colin Rush from Oppenheimer. One of the things I was struck by in the presentation was the operational efficiency metrics that you guys are talking about. Talk a little bit about the velocity of learning cycles and how you guys track that and think about that as an organization as you work into a variety of other areas from an innovation perspective.
3:37:52Anyone want to try that? I'll say one very high level thing, which is you can't improve something you don't measure, And we're like ruthless measurers at Tesla. And once you start measuring things that contribute to operational efficiency, you actually have a path to doing something about it.
3:38:11So I guess the key is a good measuring stick. OK. It's something I should say with respect to demand, which I've said a few times over the years, but it's sometimes, be said again, which is, but overwhelmingly, the desire for people to own a Tesla is extremely high. The limiting factor is their ability to pay for a Tesla.
3:38:44Not do they want a Tesla. It's easy for people in this room to lose sight of that. If your income is far in excess of what a car costs, then you look at value for money, but you do not consider affordability. But for the vast majority of people, it is affordability driven. This is why we cannot simply double the price of the car.
3:39:08Or you could say and think about things in the limit, where if you had an infinitely desirable car, but it costs $10 million, it wouldn't matter because most people do not have that. So demand is very much a function of affordability, not desire, very important. One of the things we weren't sure about was the price elasticity of demand for Tesla.
3:39:37So as we lower the price, how much does demand increase? And we found that even small changes in the price have a big effect on demand, very big. So that was a good thing to learn. Yeah. And then as the autonomy question is very, very big. Because you could potentially have, I don't know, five times the utility of the asset that you currently have.
3:40:11So passenger car is 10 or 12 hours a week of usage. Plus a lot of parking expenses. An autonomous car could be 50 to 60 hours a week or something like that. And you could get rid of a lot of parking expenses. So if this is true then as autonomy is effectively turned on for the fleet, it probably will
3:40:45be the biggest asset value increase in history overnight. Thank you so much Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank. So as you start launching this next
3:41:04generation vehicle and ramping up volume, what will be your nearest term priority in terms of segment or vehicles focus? The slide that you showed with two vehicles on the wrap seemed based on form factor. One of them maybe looks like a van, another one looks like maybe like a smaller vehicle, like potentially a model too I guess. What is the nearest term
3:41:25focus for you in terms of ramping up the next gen vehicle and how do you make sure that by lowering the price point so much because the cost is going down 50% you're not cannibalizing demand for your existing vehicles. I mean, demand for our vehicles in terms of desire to own them may as well be infinite.
3:41:53It's indistinguishable from infinite at this point. So affordability is what matters. So as you make the car more affordable, we will have demand to go crazy, basically. The issue is how do we build the cars? The hard part is building the cars. I can't emphasize that enough. The hard part is building the cars and the entire supply chain that goes with the cars.
3:42:16This is a logistics challenge of extraordinary difficulty. All the things that have to go into the car have to scale with the car while everything is doing an exponential ramp. And if you must even one of those things, it doesn't matter why, earthquake, flood, fire, revolution, I thought I heard them all. I mean, any part
3:42:47of that supply chain gets interrupted. You're now, you have a seizure. The hard part is building the cars by far and the splashing that goes with it. I mean, do you guys want to talk about the splashing stuff? They might. You know, in the presentation I'd mentioned, perfection is a passing grade.
3:43:13We really need everything to happen perfectly and the strategy for mitigating the different risks, some of which were anticipated and some weren't, is really bespoke to the situation. And then really the unique subject matter expertise and a deep knowledge of the particular supply chain you're managing to come up with those strategies.
3:43:32So we've seen everything from, as Elon mentioned, first the tariffs that flew back and forth, then the ocean logistics issue, a chip shortage, COVID floods, there was a fire and a fab in Japan that knocked down. There was a massive COVID spike in Malaysia a lot of the chips at the back end of a lot of chips was down there and more.
3:43:56This was one that Elon was involved with as well and yeah, it's nerve-wracking but somehow it works. Yeah and although it's difficult I think we have been laying the foundation to be as intimate to all the tiers of the supply chain, building that control and you know, directing the different
3:44:20years of supply chain, that's the way we are trying to mitigate the risks that come with it. Again, dual sourcing, triple sourcing, having redundancy is the way we've been trying to mitigate for it. Yeah, and that point, when we think about vehicles, when you think about three Ys and
3:44:41architecture, SX as an architecture, our next generation platform is more than one segment, and really we're thinking about all the segments that are available that we haven't captured and where the market would be in designing it with our supply chain partners so that we can go quickly through those segments for where we need.
3:44:56But to Elon's point, if you make a car desirable and affordable, you know, oftentimes it doesn't necessarily matter what segment it's in because it's one that you want. And we've seen that with Model 3 when a lot of people thought the sedan was not going to be a great hit, but we sell tons of them.
3:45:14So the next generation platform is not one vehicle. It is multiple and it's on the segment that we will really try and focus on that affordability and desirability point more over than where we started. Yeah. I mean, it's like, I think, it's an old saying, like, battles are one with tactics or is the one with logistics.
3:45:34The logistics challenge is here, our enormous. And when you start like being a very significant percentage of an industry, you can't over-capacitize. It's not realistic. And some of these things like you said, well, you do a source or triple source. You can do that maybe for small things, but you can't do it for big things because if
3:45:58you're triple sourced and one of, it's like having a plane with three engines where if any of the three engines fails, you crash. It's like, you know, so you have to eat the overcompassitize which drives your CapEx up and it has idle suppliers somewhere and big warehouses, or you design to some overage that's reasonable.
3:46:27And then you have expedite costs because inevitably there's something goes wrong somewhere and you've got to fly things around. So it's really just the rate of progress is the rate of which we are able to scale a 10,000 logistics problems. The most significant of those is the cell production.
3:46:49And so we actually deliberately try to overdo cell production or supply to have that exceed what is needed in vehicles. Because if it goes below what's needed in vehicles, then the factories stall. So but then what do you do with all these extra cells? It's like, well, okay, so the much easier thing to scale up and down is it's power wall
3:47:18and megapack output, stationary storage. So we can then overcapacetize in cells and packs and scale production of stationary storage, which is much easier to scale than vehicle production. So that's strategically, I think, a good thing. Yeah, I mean the CAPEX IV, the megapack is tiny compared to CAPEX for vehicles.
3:47:44And also megapack demand is quasi-infinite. It basically, as long as we are competitive with utilities, we can sell as many megapack of... Like, yeah, quasi-infinite demand for that, really. For multi-terra... Mini-terra-wide hours. And we got a long way to go to get to many terawatt hours per year.
3:48:10Dan. Let's go to Dan. Thank you, Dan, David, Barclays. I think we know competitive dynamics differ significantly by region. Cost dynamics differ by region. We saw that with your China gigafactory, far superior cost to what you had for a month. I realized it was a new factory. But they're clearly different dynamics.
3:48:33So to what extent are the cost strategies that you've laid out today, do they differ by region, or is there more of a global one-size-fits-all approach on reducing cost? Yeah, I think we're pretty consistent under the strategy here, but we'll try to as much localize it as possible.
3:49:01Like in China, over 95% of our supply chain are localized. All the way from the first tier to the second tier at the third tier. And that give us, generally, the tremendous savings on COX. And we also have a very localized labor force. And we have access to skilled labor force in the region, and the Yangtze-Dotter region in Shanghai, I'm particularly referring to.
3:49:31And among over 30,000 of employees in China, We have probably less than 20 expats. So it's a very deep localization we have done there to be able to have such cost structure. And we try to replicate this approach elsewhere in different gig factories. Of course, you know, the supplier base are different.
3:49:58The labor market are different region by region and country by country. but which are our best to localize. I think that's absolutely give us the advantage to compete with the auto EMs around the globe. Another thing is we have this direct selling mode, like ZAC said. We'll save a tremendous money on the OPEC as well.
3:50:28We have full control over all expenditures across the company and we don't spend money on marketing or advertising. Everything we saved will become the value we can offer to the consumers. So on that part, we also follow a pretty consistent strategy over the years. I mean, certainly the manufacturing stuff that Colin Pete and myself talked about, whether you make it here or you make it in Europe or make it in Asia, it applies everywhere. We think about that from the ground up, not specific
3:51:06to any region. Yeah, just one thing I would add to Tom's point about localization and Tilar's point here. I would actually see that we're moving in a direction of more standardization in terms of our factories and our processes and our cost reduction approaches. So as we've been thinking about the next generation platform, we've been thinking about the volume that
3:51:28that we aspire to build against that, how many individual factories do we need to build, and what is the fastest possible way to expand that footprint around the world. What we've done with Model Y is each factory is an incremental improvement of the previous factory, which requires engineering hours, engineering spend for each factory design, and then you end up with factories that are slightly different from each other.
3:51:51And as we move towards the next generation platform, I think the term you use Lars is copy paste. So to get it right from the first time, certainly there will be things that we learn and we make adjustments to, but try to have as much standardization and commonization as possible, which allows us to go as quickly as possible with expansion.
3:52:15Over our car on this side. Thanks. Two questions, one for Zach, one for a shock. So for Zach, how do you think about a long term growth and operating margins for the business. And when we look at 150, 175 billion in CapEx, there remained imbalance of that, is that essentially the CapEx guidance through 2030.
3:52:42For Ashok, the multi-trip reconstruction that you highlighted, how is that different for what Mobileye does with the REM map that they have? And can you give us any color on the AP4 hardware? So with respect to operating margins, You know, we intend to continue to improve operating expenses as a percentage of revenue over time.
3:53:08And we're continuing to take cost out of our products and trying to keep gross margins at a place that's healthy as well. And so, you know, from the hardware perspective of the business, you know, it's our expectation that we'll continue to stay in a healthy place over time. And then there's a software portion that's added on top of that.
3:53:27And so Elon has commented on this many times about the impact that full self-driving software can have on the economics of the business. And in that space, you know, profitability operating margins would be impacted dramatically. Specifically to your point about CAPX guidance, the intent of that slide was not to provide specific guidance, but to just be transparent
3:53:47about internally what our rough estimates are and to provide context that we think getting to 20 million vehicles per year in one terawatt hour of energy storage is very feasible relative to our expected cash generation for the business. That's a number that will move as we learn.
3:54:05We may choose to vertically integrate more into things. We may find efficiencies elsewhere to the whole conversation. We were having earlier about do we do mining? Do we not do mining? But the entire point is to say that this is something that's entirely possible based upon our forecast.
3:54:21Regarding the multitude of preconstruction, my point I was trying to make was that we want to auto-label most of the data and we can collect data from the fleet and then reconstruct local areas that can act as supervision for those slips. Since we want to build a scalable self-driving system, we don't want to rely on HD maps or anything, even though we could trivially build something using the same technology.
3:54:44But this is mostly for auto labeling. And this provides precise 3D labels for all the video sequences involved in the reconstruction. I don't know if we touched on this much, But in terms of training, we have one of the biggest neural net training systems in the world, and that we expect to increase that, keep believe by an order of magnitude by the end of this year, and probably another order of magnitude by the end of next year, with some combination of NVIDIA and Dojo.
3:55:23So by much of the scale of that is quite going on people. It's enormous. Maybe the final two questions. One from Alex and one from Chris. Alex Potter with Piper. So I definitely want to ask Drew or anybody else up there for an update on dry battery electrode, right? So if you're trying to over-capacitize towards cells, scale a lot of this. Clearly there's a lot of moving pieces and it's a complex
3:56:00sort of orchestra with the supply chain. But a lot of it comes down to dry battery electrode, at least to me. So how are you trending? That was the most fascinating part of the factory tour for me. And looking through that window and seeing that this is clearly not a science project.
3:56:15But anything that you're willing to disclose yields progress where you are today versus where you thought you were going to be. Yeah, thanks. Yeah, I mean, as you saw, right? This is a real factory making a lot of dry electrode in an automated fashion. We've made a lot of progress.
3:56:43It's a spectrum, like we're perfectionists and we have clear end goals. And we are, every week that goes by making progress towards those end goals, whether it's speed of the tool yield of that process or the downstream process. We haven't stalled out yet on the rate of progress, either, and that's both on the Anode and the Cathode side.
3:57:10And I think the great thing about where we are with the over capacity that Elon mentioned is it's giving us the opportunity to experiment as we go, rather than just being stuck to something that we happen to kick off a year and a half ago and it is here. Something that Elon has said to the team many times is, it's OK to scrap equipment or money.
3:57:34It's not OK to scrap time. So the way we've been approaching it is probably holistically, what do we think is the most likely thing to succeed? And even actually in the factory here, you saw more than one anode line. They are actually operating two slightly different versions of the final process step of the powder entering the tool.
3:57:54And it's a competition, which is going to be more higher yield, which is going to perform better. And we have the luxury to be able to do that. And we're taking full advantage of it to advance the technology as quickly as possible. The dry electrode problem is really quite a hard problem.
3:58:10I mean, we acquired Maxwell really just for the dry electrode technology, but just illustrates what a gigantic gap there is between something working at small scale and at large scale. We've had an extremely talented team of engineers working on scaling the dry electrode process and having it be reliable, consistent,
3:58:37and we've been grinding hard literally and figuratively on this for quite a while. It seems likely that we will be able to scale it to volume this year. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we're basically increasing the output week over week, like roughly 1K a week per quarter is our internal target.
3:58:59And we're tracking to that. I think what you saw is effectively a ton of material per hour per tool. It's kind of hard to rationalize what that really means. But it's different than, oh, if something works in a lab. Well, when it's tons of material per hour, there's just different kinds of problems.
3:59:24Even if you have like 0.1% escape of like fines into the enclosure that your equipment is in, now you have a dust problem and like that could short out some electronics. It's like just things like this where when you're on a lab scale, you don't even notice it, but when you're doing thousands of tons over the course of months, it's like, oh, a
3:59:45new failure mode we found and that's where we're at. But we're knocking those out though and the team is grinding through it, but progress every week. And the last question from Chris. Thanks for taking a question. I have a few follow-ups on the next gen vehicle. First, when do you think we'll get a look at it? Maybe a prototype. Second,
4:00:10are there any details that you think you can share in terms of the size, the content, the performance? And then third, I think you mentioned that you would produce it in other plants in addition to Mexico. Should we take that to mean that you can launch it at an existing plant before you're
4:00:25finished constructing the new plant in Mexico? I think we'll actually have to probably decline that answer. We will have a proper sort of product event, but that would be jumping the gun if we answer your questions. Maybe another question, if this. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Anyone?
4:00:51Will Daynoff? I have two questions. This has really been a very impressive afternoon. Thank you so much. Elon, I'm curious as you've doubled, and you'll double again, what you've learned about managing a larger enterprise and what you might have to do to manage a bigger enterprise.
4:01:13And then secondly, I'm curious on your thoughts on how generative AI and these rapid breakthroughs in AI in the last months could help you make cars less hard to make. Thank you. I don't see AI helping us make cars anytime soon. At that point, I mean, no point in any of us working, I think.
4:01:44Big problems. We'll just chill out. I mean, I'm a little worried about the AI stuff. I think it's something,
4:01:59I don't know, we should be concerned about. I don't know, I think we should need some kind of regulatory authority or something. It's overseeing AI development and just making sure that it's operating within the public interest and it's quite a dangerous technology. I may have done some things to accelerate it, which is, I don't know.
4:02:30So I mean some of the AI stuff I think is just obviously useful like what we're doing with self-driving which is, you know, some people think is an AGI type problem. I don't think it's quite an AGI problem but it certainly requires very sophisticated neural nets because the road system is designed for eyes and biological neural nets.
4:02:59So naturally, the analog to that is cameras with digital neural nets. And the thing we found is, actually look at our neural net architecture in the car. It's kind of insane, frankly. That's upon net, that's upon net, that's upon net. The visualization told crashes when you open it.
4:03:27It's so complicated, but no one can visualize this right now. Yeah, it's hard to visually, just like literally, it looks insane. So I guess something like that's happening in our brains while we drive around, which is pretty wild. So, you know, I don't know. Like Tesla's doing good things, and AI, I don't know,
4:03:58this one stresses me out. So I don't know what to think you should say about it. Okay, given it's seven o'clock, I think that's all the time we have. Thank you very much for coming. And thank you. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
事实上，我们可以支撑一个比地球大得多的文明，远超地球能以可持续方式实际支撑的80亿人口。
In fact, you could support a civilization much bigger than Earth, much more than the 8 billion humans could actually be supported sustainably on Earth.
全球一次能源中，超过80%来自化石燃料，而全球能源中只有三分之一真正最终转化为有用的功或热。
Over 80% of global energy, primary energy, comes from fossil fuels. and only one third of that global energy actually ends up delivering useful work or heat.
2022年，美国电网新增发电量中有60%来自太阳能。而且实际上，截至2022年，太阳能部署正以50%的同比增长速度发展。
60% of the generation added to the US grid was solar in 2022. And actually, on a year-on-year basis, solar deployment is growing 50% year-on-year as of 2022.
而且我认为，实际上所有汽车都会走向纯电动和自动驾驶。
And I think really all cars will go to fully electric and autonomous.
Model 3 用煮一锅意面水所需的能量能行驶超过一英里，然后还能用煮意面所耗的能量再行驶一英里。
Model 3 can drive over a mile on the energy it takes to boil a pot of water for pasta, and then it can drive another mile on the energy it took to cook the pasta.
航运占全球二氧化碳排放的3%。它非常适合电动化。即使使用磷酸铁锂，长途船舶也能完全由电池驱动。
Shipping accounts for 3% of Global CO2. It's ripe for electrification. Even with lithium iron phosphate, long haul ships can be fully battery powered.
然后，当我们审视前进过程中真正发生的事，历史告诉我们：我们看得越多，发现得就越多。
And then when we look at what really happens as we move forward, history teaches the more we look, the more we find.
锂极其常见。它是地球上最常见的元素之一。没有任何国家垄断锂，甚至连接近垄断都没有。
Lithium is extremely common. It's one of the most common elements on earth. There's no country that has monopoly on lithium, or even close to it.
地球能够也必将转向可持续能源经济，而且会在你有生之年实现。
Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy, and will do so in your lifetime.
资源与出处
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- 视频原始视频文件
- 档案silicon-valley.tech 档案页本页视频与文稿数据来自 Elon Musk Archive
- 精读本篇精读 Markdown 版
