大会演讲·中文精读

马斯克与苏纳克对话 AI

AI discussion with Rishi Sunak

中文精读由 AI 基于原始视频与文稿改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原视频为准。说明

比尔·盖茨说过一句话,我们这个时代没有人比马斯克更用力地推动科学和创新的边界。马斯克听完的反应是:"这话有点疯。不过被比尔·盖茨这么说,感觉挺好。"

可就在 AI 这件事上,他做了十年少数派。

2023 年 11 月,英国在布莱切利园办首届全球 AI 安全峰会。峰会前一天,苏纳克和马斯克在伦敦对谈了一个小时。开场没多久,苏纳克就抛出了这个反差:同一个人,一边被称作最能推动创新的人,一边在 AI 上喊了十年"慢一点"。

当了十年卡珊德拉

"我当卡珊德拉当了好一阵子了。"(马斯克)

卡珊德拉是希腊神话里那个能预言灾难、但永远没人相信的女人。马斯克说,他一直在跟人讲,我们该担心 AI。对方的反应基本是:你在说什么?那时候大部分人确实没跟 AI 打过任何交道。

他的理由很简单,他在技术里泡了太久,能看见东西过来。

2023 年,他觉得有几件事同时发生了。

一件是深度伪造(deepfake)。现在可以实时生成一个人说任何话的视频,说你也行,说他也行。效果好到什么程度?马斯克的原话是,有时候真的比真的还真。

另一件是 ChatGPT。他说自己看过 GPT-1 到 GPT-4 的整个爬坡过程,所以把曲线上的点往外一推,方向很清楚:这条线会继续往上,最终会出现远超人类智能的智能。

这就是他十年警告的底层逻辑,不需要什么神秘主义,只需要承认趋势会延续。

他也道了谢,说苏纳克办这场峰会,历史会记住它很重要。这场对话发生在峰会前夜,第二天的成果是一份包括中国在内的多国签署的联合公报。

精灵、裁判,和那个 80%

马斯克讲了一个比喻,后来在整场对话里反复出现。

假设你有一个能实现所有愿望的精灵。你想要什么它给什么,没有次数限制。听起来是人类文明的终点。

可这类故事的结局通常不好。

要小心你许的愿,包括"再来更多愿望"这个愿望本身。(马斯克)

他对结果的判断一直很稳定:大概率是好事,但坏的概率不是零。

结尾他又把数字说了一遍,80% 会是好的,20% 是坏的。中间隔了一个小时,数字没变。这个比例显然是他反复推演之后愿意公开下注的区间,随口讲不出来。

好消息那部分,他用了个词:富足(abundance)。商品和服务不再稀缺的时代。他在后面把这个逻辑推到底,说会从全民基本收入(universal basic income)走到全民高收入(universal high income)。

坏消息那部分,需要有人当裁判。

苏纳克问,政府该做什么。马斯克的回答从一件很朴素的事开始:绝大多数软件不涉及公共安全。你手机上的应用崩了,笔记本蓝屏了,不是灾难。但数字超级智能不一样,它确实对公众构成风险,那政府就有角色。

他举了自己熟悉的领域,航空、汽车、通信。因为做火箭和做车,他跟全世界的监管机构打过很多交道。

"我其实同意绝大多数监管。时不时会不同意几条,但比例大概只有 0.1%,不到 1%。"(马斯克)

苏纳克追了一句,硅谷那边对监管的抵触是真实存在的。马斯克没替同行辩护,反而说了句挺扫兴的话:那些从来没跟监管打过交道的人,觉得监管会压死创新、让他们变慢、让他们很烦。他们的担心有道理,监管确实会烦人。

但接着他给出了整场对话里最容易被记住的类比:

任何一场体育比赛都有裁判,没有人提议办一场没有裁判的比赛。

政府就是这个裁判。职责是保证比赛按规矩进行,以及保证公众安全。

他还补了一句自我定位:我作为技术专家说这话,所以我应该知道,技术圈有时候过于乐观了。

这句话的分量在于说话的人。一个造火箭、造电动车、做脑机接口的人,站出来说"我们这行容易过度乐观",比任何监管者的警告都更难反驳。

每年五到十倍,政府追不上的速度

苏纳克提了个很实际的问题:政府能攒够专业能力吗?DeepMind 那边有一堆极聪明的人在做这件事,政府能不能跟上?

马斯克先给了速度的量级:他见过的所有技术里,AI 是最快的,而且还在加速。能力每年至少提升五倍,也许是十倍。他预计明年就是一个数量级的增长。

参照系是摩尔定律。苏纳克说,你一辈子活在摩尔定律里,而这里的东西完全不是那个节奏。

政府不习惯按这个速度运转,这点马斯克承认。但他给出了一个门槛很低的答案:即使没有硬性法规,即使没有执法能力,光是让监管方拥有洞察力、能把这些担忧摆到公众面前,就已经很有力量。

"如果只做到这一步,我觉得也非常非常好。"

苏纳克接了一句"希望能做得比这更好",马斯克说"希望如此"。

中国不在桌上,这场讨论就是空谈

苏纳克主动提了他那个不太受欢迎的决定:邀请中国参加峰会。他说很多人批评他,他的理由是,要谈就得认真地谈。

马斯克给了很直接的支持。

他先点出了反对监管的人最常用的那张牌:"中国不会做的,所以他们会一路领先超过我们所有人。"这句话在硅谷的每一场 AI 监管辩论里都会出现。

马斯克的回应是事实层面的:中国愿意讨论 AI 安全。

他今年访问中国时,跟中方领导层谈的主要议题就是 AI 安全。他告诉对方这是真正该关心的事,而对方认真对待了。所以他觉得,中国能到场是必要的,如果不参与,这事就没有意义。

顺带他也交代了当下的格局:AI 开发目前有两个领先中心,旧金山湾区和伦敦地区。别的地方也在做,但领头的就这两个。

所以他的判断是,如果美国、英国、中国在安全上能对齐,那就是好事。领导力在哪里,共识就得在哪里。

开源落后一年,就是差五倍

峰会当天有一场关于开源的辩论。苏纳克说,一边有人担心开源模型被坏人拿去用,一边有人说开源才是分布式创新的土壤,没有完美答案。

马斯克先给了个时间差:开源模型和公开数据,通常落后闭源 6 到 12 个月。

听着不算多。但他紧接着算了一笔账:如果能力提升的速度是每年五倍甚至更多,落后一年就意味着你比人家差五倍。在这个斜率下,6 到 12 个月是很宽的沟。

他说这也许还行,算是一个可以接受的局面。但开源 AI 迟早会逼近人类水平智能,甚至超过。这一点他也没法给出解决方案。

他承认这事某种程度上不可避免。如果非要选,他略微偏向开源,理由很朴素:至少你能看见里面在发生什么。闭源的话,你什么都不知道。

然后他马上自己拆了这个理由。

即使是开源模型,你真的知道里面在干什么吗?一个几十亿参数、几千亿数据点的文件,你没法读一遍就知道它要干什么。那是一份巨大的、不可读的数字堆。

主持人调侃了一句"我们的数字上帝是个 CSV 文件?"他笑着认了:"差不多就是。"

这段话里有个技术上的区分:神经网络是概率性的,不是确定性的。传统编程是一行行逻辑,你能读懂每一行,能预测输出。神经网络是一大堆概率分布。你不能读它,你只能跑它、测它。

所以测试这件事,只能在训练进行中做、在发布之前做。这正好是英国 AI 安全研究所想做的事,马斯克表示同意。

总有一天,没有哪个岗位是必需的

苏纳克说,他在外面跟普通人聊天,被问得最多的不是超级智能,是工作。我的工作还在吗?我孩子以后还有工作吗?

他作为政策制定者的回答是:AI 已经在创造岗位,目前更多是副驾驶(co-pilot),人有能动性,只是干得更好。他引了一项 MIT 的研究,说当下 60% 的岗位在 40 年前根本不存在,所以预测本身很难。

马斯克的答案要硬得多。

"我认为我们面对的是历史上最具颠覆性的力量。我们将第一次拥有比最聪明的人类还聪明的东西。"(马斯克)

他接着说了一句让现场安静的话:会有那么一个时刻,没有哪个工作岗位是必需的。你可以有工作,但那是为了个人满足感。AI 什么都能做。

他不确定这让人舒服还是不舒服,然后把精灵的比喻又拉了回来:一个没有三愿限制的精灵,你想要多少愿望就有多少。所以它同时是好的和坏的。

真正的挑战被他放在了后面:如果有个精灵能实现你所有愿望,人怎么找到生活的意义?

苏纳克在这里接了话。他说自己相信工作给人意义,如果拿掉一大块,那股驱动力从哪来?他还讲了个自嘲:他做项目做到凌晨三点,然后会突然想,我在干嘛?我完全可以等 AI 来做。我这是在自我惩罚吗?

马斯克顺着开了个玩笑:那你就打电话给 Demis(DeepMind 的 Demis Hassabis),让他们快点,你就能去度假了。

玩笑过后,他给了一个不那么悲观的视角。

很多工作是不舒服的、危险的、枯燥的。计算机干这些毫无怨言,乐意干一整天。

做饭挺有意思,洗碗就没那么有意思。但计算机很乐意洗碗。(马斯克)

至于人的成就感从哪来,他拿体育做了类比。机器跑得比任何人都快,但我们还是看奥运会,还是看人和人比赛,比谁是最好的"人类"。人从这件事里获得的满足感是真实的。

他还提了一套小说:伊恩·M·班克斯(Iain M. Banks)的"文化"系列。他说不用加"可能"这种限定词,那就是迄今为止对 AI 未来最好的想象,没有能接近的。那是一个相当乌托邦、或者说"前瞻托邦"(protopian)的世界。他推荐所有人去读。

最好的导师,和最耐心的朋友

苏纳克问,你最兴奋的机会是什么。

第一个答案是教育,而且他很具体。他提到了可汗学院的 Sal Khan 今年早些时候的那场演示。一对一导师和班级授课之间的差距是巨大的,这一点在教育研究里早有共识。如果每个孩子都有一个为自己定制、随时间一起成长的私人导师,那是件了不得的事。

马斯克说 AI 导师会非常棒,某种程度上已经在了。他补了一个前提:AI 得先停止幻觉。它现在会用完美的语法、漂亮的要点列表、还带引用,自信地给你一个错误答案,而那些引用是编的。这个问题解决得会很快。

第二个答案让在场的人有点意外:陪伴。

他自己先承认这听起来怪,计算机怎么能真的当你的朋友。但如果这个 AI 有记忆,记得你们所有的对话,而且读过所有东西,你甚至可以授权它读你做过的一切。那它会比任何人都了解你,也许比你自己更了解你。你每天跟它说话,对话层层累积,你会真的有一个很好的朋友。

他加了个条件,说得挺认真:"只要这个朋友不会被关掉。"

然后他讲了自己的家事。他有一个儿子有学习障碍,交朋友有困难。他说,AI 朋友对他会是很大的帮助。

苏纳克接住了这个话题,说心理治疗已经在大量转向数字和电话渠道,效果显著,AI 提供这种社会价值是完全可能的。

社区笔记:不删帖,只补语境

话题转到 X。苏纳克说,你做了很多改动,其中一个很有意思:把人工审核换成了社区笔记(Community Notes),别人没这么干过。

马斯克的解释从权力说起。如果你手下有一批人做审查,这批人一定有偏见,而谁指派审查者,谁实际上就控制了信息。

社区笔记的思路是另外一条:用共识驱动的方式逼近真相。他不认为能达到纯粹的真相,但可以追求"更少的失实"。

设计上分三条。

第一条,社区笔记不删除任何东西。它只是补充语境。语境可以是"这件事不实,理由如下"。

第二条,全部开源。软件的每一行你都能看,写进某条笔记的所有数据你也能看,你甚至可以独立复现那条笔记。如果你发现数据被操纵,你可以指出来,说这里有人在刷系统,还能提改进建议。最大透明度加上群体智慧。

第三条,也是最核心的一条:一条笔记要显示出来,必须是历史上意见相左的人达成了共识。

技术实现上有个细节挺有意思。系统会给每个参与社区笔记的用户在参数空间里定位,每人对应几百个向量,因为事情比左右复杂得多。然后做反向相关性分析:好,这批人平时互相不同意,但他们在这一条笔记上一致了。这条笔记因此获得了可信度。

马斯克说效果很好。他很少看到一条错误的笔记能挂超过几个小时。他让抱怨社区笔记在传播虚假信息的人举一个例子,对方举不出来。

整个平台的取向,他总结成一句话:尽可能准确,尽可能真实,即使有些人不喜欢真相。他说人不总是喜欢真相。但他相信真相是有回报的。只要不做自我欺骗,这就是聪明的做法。

英国缺的不是大学

第一个现场提问来自 Entrepreneur First 的 Alice Bentinck。她问两边:英国有全世界最好的大学,有人才,要成为独角兽的土壤还差什么?对马斯克那一问更具体:在英国创业对最顶尖的技术人才来说仍然不是一个显然的选择,文化上要补什么?

马斯克先给了个正面评价,而且是个很多人不知道的事实:伦敦和旧金山湾区就是 AI 的两个中心。旧金山大概领先,但伦敦非常强,大伦敦加周边各郡。

然后他讲文化。文化上应该庆祝创办新公司,应该偏向支持小公司,因为需要被照顾的是小公司。大树不需要照顾。

你可以把它想成一棵树,小树苗需要培育,长成大树之后就不太需要了。(马斯克)

硬件也得有:愿意租给新公司的房东,愿意服务新公司的律所和会计师事务所。都是些不起眼的东西,缺了就转不动。

苏纳克接过来讲政府那一摊。资本上,从种子轮的 EIS 税收减免(Enterprise Investment Scheme)一路到后期轮次,还有养老金改革,让有钱的人把钱投进成长型股权。人才上,教育改革抓数学,加上签证制度吸引全世界最好的创业者。他给了一个数字:英国增长最快的公司里,超过一半有非英国籍创始人。

然后他承认最难的是文化那一块。怎么让人不怕放弃稳定薪水去创业,怎么让人对失败感到自在。他把这个球踢回给马斯克,说你经常讲这个。

马斯克接得很干脆:第一次创业失败,不应该成为职业生涯的灾难性终结。应该是"你试过了,现在再来一次"。

他补了一个很少有人提的结构性问题:创业是高危高回报。绝大多数创业公司的真实形态,是大量的工作之后跟着失败。你只听到成功的那几个。所以高回报那一头必须真实存在,否则整件事在理性上说不通。

苏纳克把这个"软性游说"接住了,报了几个数:资本利得税率 20%,比欧洲大陆低得多,也比加州低。股票期权的税收待遇,他当财政大臣时英国排在第四第五,改完之后升到了第二。

他的落点是:人承担风险、付出努力,就应该能享受到回报。

明年你最先感觉到的三件事

一位在诺丁汉做连锁药店的提问者(Seb,Boots 的 CEO)问,这些宏大的东西,怎么落到一个普通人的日常里。

苏纳克先讲了个很具体的例子。Gov.UK 这个网站,把政府服务集中到一处,几百万人每天在用。他们即将在上面部署 AI。场景是这样的:你现在人在外面,护照丢了,航班五小时后起飞。今天你得走一堆步骤才能搞清楚怎么办。部署 AI 之后,你直接说这句话,它一步一步带你走完。

他讲得很实在,这套用法谈不上治愈癌症那种级别的突破,作用就是让几百万人每天的日子少一点摩擦。

马斯克给了三个层次。

第一,一个非常聪明的朋友。什么都能问,怎么做东西,怎么解决某个问题,它都会告诉你。企业会先用上,所以普通人最先感觉到的可能是客服变好了。

第二,教育。任何科目都有一个顶级家教。他再次提醒,得先解决幻觉问题,不然你得到的是一个语法完美、自信满满的错误答案。

第三,是前面说的陪伴。

苏纳克在中间插了句玩笑,说对疫情期间在家辅导过孩子的父母来说,这会是巨大的解脱。

能追你上楼的东西

Brent Hoberman 提了机器人。想要富足时代,得有很多机器人。会不会出现某个国家在机器人上大幅领先,从而取得战略优势?

马斯克先扩大了定义:任何能被计算机驱动的东西,实际上就是机器人。特斯拉就是轮子上的机器人。任何联网设备,本质上都是 AI 的末端执行器。所以波士顿动力(Boston Dynamics,现在主要归现代汽车)、戴森、德国的工业机器人,都在这条线上。

他专门点了英国:ARM 是世界上最好的芯片设计公司之一,几乎所有人都在用 ARM 的技术。所以英国在这个方向上不会落后。

然后他讲了一个此前很少公开讲的担忧,讲得非常具体。

安全问题跟形态关系很大。汽车没法追进这栋楼,你跑上几级台阶就能躲开一辆特斯拉。人形机器人不一样,它可以跟着你去任何地方。

所以他主张一个硬件层面的设计:一个硬连线的本地紧急停止开关,不能通过网络更新。任何能通过网络软件更新的东西,都能被覆盖。但如果有一个本地开关,比如一个关键词,触发之后机器人进入安全状态,而且你不需要靠近它就能触发,那就完全不一样。他还补了一句:全世界跑着几百万台这种机器的时候,这个开关的分量就更明显了。

苏纳克回应说,当天峰会的小组讨论里,大家提到了同一个点,而且是从电影切入的。他们数了一堆片子,说这些电影的情节本质上是同一个:最后总有人找到办法把它关掉。

两个人不约而同落到了同一个结论上:物理层面的关闭能力。

马斯克还开了个脑洞:也许可以把"你最喜欢的詹姆斯·卡梅隆电影是哪部"设成 AI 测试题。

验证码已经防不住任何人了

一位在利兹做 AI 和机器学习规模化的创始人(英国第三大 AI 中心,他自称有点偏心)提了钓鱼攻击的问题。ChatGPT 发布三个月后,他们观察到钓鱼攻击明显上升,语言模式复杂得多。怎么保护企业和消费者,怎么让人信任这项技术?

马斯克的回答跟问题方向相反:"我们其实不该那么信任它。"

他讲了一个正在失效的机制:人机验证。就是那个"你是真人吗,点出图中所有红绿灯"。开源 AI 已经能通过人类验证码,而且比人更快更准。那么问题就变成了,当机器比人更擅长证明自己是人的时候,什么测试才是有意义的。

他说自己没有好答案。这是 X 平台正在试图解决的问题。

他们想到的办法是收钱,但收得很小:一年一美元或者一英镑。金额小到对真人毫无感觉,但它让"造一百万个机器人"变得明显昂贵。难点在这儿:一百万个机器人需要一百万个支付方式,而盗用的信用卡是用得完的。折算下来大概是一天 0.3 美分。

他的判断很悲观:这个问题今年还在增长,明年可能就变成无法解决的问题。任何不做这件事的社交平台,最终都会被机器人淹没。

他还点了另一层:信息操纵。用机器人点赞和转发,让一件根本没人关心的事看起来极其热门。这比伪造账号更隐蔽。

苏纳克这边给了政策视角:得让人看到风险在被处理,信任才建立得起来。这就是安全研究所、研究能力、快速迭代的意义。峰会的这两天,做的就是这件事。

他提到英国前一天发布的一份研究报告,内容正是用 AI 批量制造假账号、渗透特定社群、定向投放信息。他说成本现在几乎为零,正在走向"一分钱一百个"的荒谬程度。而且这件事在社区、城镇这个层级特别有效,你不需要很多账号,就能让某个本地议题看起来到处都是人在讨论。

马斯克补充了技术细节,讲得挺冷:你甚至不用盗用真人的照片,因为照片可以溯源。你可以直接生成一张不存在的人脸,配一份不存在但看着很真的简历,然后批量做。

他最后半开玩笑地说了唯一还能露馅的地方:机器人的语法太好了。没有拼写错误。

加密签名,和教皇的羽绒服

最后一个提问来自 Adobe 的人:视觉媒体上有没有简单的办法?现在让人说没说过的话、做没做过的事,几乎免费。能不能做加密签名的媒体,标明哪些是 AI 生成、哪些来自真实相机?Twitter 当年参与过这个项目(内容来源与真实性联盟 C2PA),他希望 X 回来。

马斯克的回答很直接:"好主意,我们应该做。"

苏纳克接着讲了自己的经历。他遇到过被篡改的图片到处传播,等他反应过来、等大家意识到是假的时候,伤害已经造成了。

他把这件事放到了时间表上。明年美国、印度、印尼、英国、欧盟都有大选,全球相当大比例的人口要投票。这可能是第一场深度伪造真正构成问题的选举。怎么处理,关系到民主制度的完整性。

整场对话最轻松的一段出现在这里。马斯克提到了教皇穿白色羽绒服的那张图。他说那张图很棒,但他到现在还遇到有人相信那是真的。他的反驳是:七月在罗马穿羽绒服,人会热死的。然后他又补了一句,说其实那件挺好看的。他说 AI 时尚会成真。

他给出的那个数字

收尾时,马斯克把整场对话压缩成了几句话。

我们生活在最有趣的时代。这件事大概 80% 会是好的,20% 是坏的。如果我们清楚坏的那部分并且足够小心,那么总体上,它会变成我们想要的未来,或者说更可取的那个未来。

它会成为某种均衡器。因为每个人都能用上那个精灵。每个人都能获得商品、服务和教育。所以他倾向于给出一个乐观的结论:它大概会带来更多的人类幸福。

苏纳克说他离开时比来时更有信心。政府的职责是让它安全地发生。

这场对话里最有价值的部分,是一串可以着手的地方。那些关于超级智能的宏大判断相比之下没那么有用:裁判要有,而且要快;中国必须在桌上;发布之前就得测;机器人身上要有物理开关;账号要收一点点钱;媒体要有加密签名。每一条都不完美,但每一条都比"再观察观察"要具体。

  • 读一遍班克斯的"文化"系列。这是马斯克在这场对话里给出的唯一一个非技术建议,他用了"这就是迄今为止最好的想象,没有能接近的"这种强度的判断。理解 AI 的未来图景,比争论某个模型的具体参数更有长期价值。
  • 把"能力每年提升五到十倍"当成规划的时间常数。如果你手上有一份三年技术路线图,用这个斜率重算一遍。落后一年意味着差五倍,这个数字对个人技能、公司架构、监管框架同样成立。
  • 对"看着很真"的东西默认怀疑,尤其是语法完美、要点齐全、还带有引用链接的内容。马斯克说的"机器人语法太好"是个可以用起来的判据,反向也成立:一份没有拼写错误、结构过度工整、引用查不到的文档,值得多查一遍来源。
  • 如果你是做内容或媒体的,认真看一遍 C2PA 这类内容来源加密标准。Adobe 那位提问者问的是一件已经有人在做、但参与方还不够多的事。明年是选举大年,签名和溯源会从"可有可无"变成硬需求。
  • 如果你是做产品的,把"AI 身份的边际成本"当成一个设计变量。X 的思路值得抄:不需要根除机器人,只需要让批量制造变得不经济。一年一美元、一天 0.3 美分,这个量级的摩擦对真人无感,对百万级操作致命。
  • 关注开源和闭源之间那个"6 到 12 个月"的真实差距。在这个斜率下它等于五倍能力差。选型的时候,别把"半年后开源就会有"当成等价替代方案。
语音识别自动转录(Whisper),含全部发言人,可能有识别错误。已按语句合并成段落,并去掉 um、uh 等口头填充词。

0:01Okay, all right. Well good evening everybody welcome Elon. Thanks for being here. Thank you for having me We feel we feel very proud. We're excited to have you right so I'm gonna start with some questions and then we're gonna open it up Let me get straight into it. So Bill Gates said there is no one in our time who has done more to push the bounds of science innovation than you

0:21Well, it's kind of insane. Yeah. Well, that's it. That's a nice thing to have anyone say about you nice coming from Bill Gates but Oddly enough, when it comes to AI, actually, for around a decade, you've almost been in the opposite and saying, hang on, you need to think about what we're doing and what we're pushing here and what do we do to make this safe and actually we shouldn't be pushing as faster as hard as we are.

0:42You've been doing it for a decade. What was it that caused you to think about it that way and why do we need to be worried? I've been somewhat of a Cassandra for quite a while. Where people would tell people, we should really be concerned about AI, like what are you talking about?

0:57Like, if never really had any experience with AI. Since I was immersed in technology, I have been immersed in technology for a long time, I could see it coming. But I think this year was, there have been a number of breakthroughs. I mean, you know, the point of which someone can see a dynamically created video of themselves.

1:20Like, it's already created a video of you saying anything in real time, or me. And so the sort of the deep peak videos, which are really incredibly good, in fact, sometimes we're convincing the real ones. And deep reel. And then obviously things like Chai GBT were quite remarkable.

1:43Now I saw GPT-1, GPT-2, GPT-3, GPT-4, the whole sort of lead up to that. So it was easy for me to kind of see where it's going. If you just sort of extrapolate the points on a curve, and I see that trend will continue, then we will have profound artificial intelligence, and obviously at a level that far exceeds human intelligence.

2:04So, but I'm glad to see at this point that people are taking safety seriously, and I'd like to say thank you for holding this AI safety conference. I think actually it will go out on in history as being very important. I think it's really quite profound. And I do think overall that the potential is there for

2:27artificial intelligence, AI, to have most likely a positive effect. And to create a future of abundance where there is no scarcity of goods and services. But it is somewhat of the magic genie problem, if you have a magic genie that can grant all the wishes. Usually those stories don't end well.

2:52Be careful what you wish for, including wishes. Yeah. So you talked a little bit about the summit, and thank you for being engaged in it, which has been great, and people enjoyed having you there. Potter's been in this dialogue. Now, one of the things that we achieved today in the meetings between the companies and the leaders was an agreement that externally, ideally governments,

3:18should be doing safety testing of models before they're released. I think this is something that you've spoken about a little bit. It was something we worked really hard on, because my job in government is to say, hang on, there is a potential risk here. Not a definite risk, but a potential risk of something that could be bad.

3:36My job is to protect the country. And we can only do that if we develop the capability we need in our safety institute, and then go in and make sure we can test the models before they are released. Delighted that that happened today, but what's your view on what we should be doing?

3:51You've talked about the potential risk, right? Again, we don't know. But what are the types of things governments like us should be doing to manage and mitigate against those risks? Well, I generally think that it is good for government play a role when the public safety is at risk.

4:06So really, for the vast majority of software, the public safety is not at risk. I mean, if the app crashes on your phone, you're a laptop, it's not a massive catastrophe. But when you're talking about digital superintelligence, I think, which does pose a risk to the public, then there is a role for government to play to safeguard the interests of the public.

4:29And this is, of course, true in many fields, aviation, cars. And I deal with regulators throughout the world because of starting communications, rockets being aerospace, and cars being transport. So I'm very familiar with dealing with regulators. And I actually agree with the vast majority of regulations.

4:50There's a few that I disagree with from time to time, but 0.1% probably. Less than 1% of regulations I disagree with. And there is some concern from people in Silicon Valley who have never dealt with regulators before and they think that this is going to just crush innovation and slow them down and

5:09be annoying. And it will be annoying, it's true. They're not wrong about that. But I think there's, we've learned over the years that having a referee is a good thing. And if you look at any sports game, there's always a referee and nobody's suggesting I think to have a sports game without one.

5:34And I think that's the right way to think about this is for government to be a referee to make sure the sportsman like conduct and that the public safety is addressed, that we care about public safety. Because I think there might be at times too much optimism about technology. And I say that as a technologist, I mean, so I ought to know.

5:57And on balance, I think the AI will be a forceful good, most likely, but the probability of it going bad is not zero percent. So we just need to mitigate the downside potential. And then how you talk about referee, and that's what we're talking about. Yeah. Well, there we go. We talk about this, and Demis and I discussed this a long time ago.

6:23They're literally facing right end of it. Actually, you know, Demis to his credit and the credit of people in the industry did say that to him. I think you would say it's not right that Demis and his colleagues are marking their own homework, right? There needs to be someone independent and that's why we've developed the Safety Institute here.

6:39I mean, do you think governments can develop the expertise? One of the things we need to do is they hang on, you know, Demis and all the others have got a lot of very smart people doing this. Governments need to quickly tool up capability-wise personnel-wise, which is what we're doing.

6:54I mean, do you think it is possible for governments to do that fast enough, given how quickly the technology is developing, or what do we need to do to make sure we do it quick enough? No, I think it's a great point you're making. The pace of AI is faster than any technology I've seen in history by far, and it seems to

7:14be growing in capability by at least five full, perhaps ten full per year. It will certainly grow by an order of magnitude next year. So, and government isn't used to moving at that speed. But I think even if there are not firm regulations, even if there isn't an enforcement capability, so we're having insight and being able to highlight concerns to the public will be very powerful.

7:44So, even if that's all that's accomplished, I think that will be very, very good. Okay, well hopefully we can do better than that. Hopefully, yeah. No, but that's how fast you know. We were talking before it was striking you know you're someone who spent their life in technology living Moore's law and

8:00What was interesting over the last couple of days talking to everyone who's doing the development of this? And I think you can cover this is it's just the pace of advancement here is unlike anything Yeah, all of you have seen in your careers and technology is that fair because you've got these kind of compounding

8:16effects from the hardware and and the data and the personnel Yeah, I mean, the two, currently the two leading centers for AI development are the San Francisco Bay Area and the sort of London area. And there are many other places where it's being done, but those are the two leading areas.

8:34So I think if the United States and the UK and China are sort of aligned on safety, that's will be a good thing. So that's where the leadership is generally. And actually, you mentioned China there. So I took a decision to invite China to submit over the last few days. And it was not an easy decision.

8:59A lot of people criticized me for it. My view is if you're going to try and have serious conversation, you need to. But what were your thoughts? You did business all around the world. You just talked about it there. Should we be engaging with them? Can we trust them? Is that the right thing to have done?

9:13If China is not on board with AI safety, it's somewhat of a mood situation. The single biggest objection that I get to in AI regulation or safety controls are, well, China's not going to do it and therefore they will just jump into the lead and exceed us all. But actually, China is willing to debate in AI safety.

9:38And thank you for inviting them. And they, you know, I think we should thank China for attending. When I was in China earlier this year, my main subject of discussion with the leadership in China was AI safety and saying that this is really something that they should care about and they took it seriously and URT, which is great.

10:04And having them here, I think, was essential really. If they're not participants, it's pointless. Yes, yes. And I think we were pleased. They were engaged yesterday in the discussions, and actually ended up signing the same communique that everyone else did, which is a good start.

10:19As we need everyone to approach this in a similar way, if we're going to have a realistic chance of resolving it. You talked about innovation earlier and regulation being annoying. There was a good debate today we had about open source. And I think you've kind of been a proponent of algorithmic transparency and making some of the X algorithms public.

10:40And actually, we were talking about every hinted on the way in. He's particularly been very concerned about open source models being used by bad actors. You've got a group of people who say they are critical to innovation happening in that distributed way. It's probably no perfect answer, and there is a tricky balance.

10:59What are your thoughts on how we should approach this open source question? or where should we be targeting whatever regulatory or monitoring that we're going to do? Well, the open source algorithms and data tend to lag the closed source by six to 12 months. But given the rate of improvement, that this actually therefore quite a big difference between the closed source and the open.

11:27If things are improving by a factor of the take-by or more than being a year behind is your five times worst. So it's a pretty big difference. And that might be actually an okay situation. But it certainly will get to the point where you've got open source AI that can do, that will start to approach human level intelligence will perhaps succeed it.

11:52I don't know quite what to do about it. I think it's somewhat inevitable. There'll be some amount of open source tonight. I guess I would have a slight bias towards open source, because at least you can see what's going on. It was closed source, you don't know what's going on. Now, it should be said with AI that even if it's an open source, do you actually know what's going on?

12:10Because if you've got a gigantic data file and sort of billions of data points or weights and parameters, you can't just read it and see what it's going to do. It's a gigantic file of inscrutable numbers. You can test it when you run it. You can test it. You can run a bunch of tests to see what it's going to do.

12:33But it's probabilistic as opposed to deterministic. It's not like traditional programming where you've got to sort of discrete logic. And the outcome is very predictable. And you can read each line and see what each line's going to do. a neural net is just a whole bunch of probabilities.

12:56I mean, it sort of ends up being a giant comma separated value file. It's like our digital guide is a CSV file, really? Hahaha. Hahaha. Okay. But that is kind of what it is. Yeah. Now, at that point you've just made, it's one that we have been talking about a lot because, again, conversation with the people that are developing their technology make the point that you've just made.

13:19It is not like normal software where there's predictability about inputs improving, leading to this particular output improving. And as the models iterate and improve, we don't quite know what's gonna come out the other end that Demis would agree with that, which is why I think there is this bias that we need to get in there while the training runs are being done, before the models are released to understand what is this new iteration brought about in terms of capability, which it sounds like you would agree with.

13:47I was going to shift gears a little bit. You've talked a lot about human consciousness, human agency, which actually might strike people as strange, given that you are known for being such a brilliant innovator in technologists. But it's quite heartfelt when I hear you talk about it and the importance of maintaining that agency in technology and preserving human consciousness.

14:08Now, the thing I was going to ask is, when I do interviews or talk to people out and about in this job, that AI, the thing that comes up most, actually, is probably not so much the stuff we've been talking about, but jobs. It's what does AI mean for my job? Is it going to mean that I don't have a job, or my kids are not going to have a job?

14:25Now, my answer as a policy maker, as a leader, is actually AI is already creating jobs. And you can see that in the companies that are starting. Also, the way it's being used is a little bit more as a co-pilot, necessarily versus replacing the person. There's still human agency, but it's helping you your job better, which is a good thing.

14:47And as we've seen with technological revolutions in the past, clearly there's change in the labor market in the amount of jobs that I was quoting an MIT study today that they did a couple of years ago, something like 60% of the jobs at that moment didn't exist 40 years ago, so hard to predict.

15:02And my job is to create an incredible education system, whether it's at school, whether it's retraining people at any point in their career, because ultimately if we've got a skilled population and they ought to keep up with the pace of change and have a good life. But it's still a concern.

15:16And what would your observation be on AI and the impact on labor markets and people's jobs and how they should feel about that as they think about this? Well, I think we are seeing the most disruptive force in history here. We have for the first time, we will have the first time something that is smarter than the smartest human. And that, I mean, it's hard to say exactly what that moment is, but there will come a

15:47point where no job is needed. You can have a job if you want to have a job for sort of personal satisfaction, but the AI will be able to do everything. So, I don't know if that makes people comfortable, uncomfortable. Well, it's, it's, you know, that's why, that's That's why I say if you wish for a magic genie, that gives you any wishes you want.

16:12And there's no limit. You don't have those three-wish limits, if not since you just have many wishes you want. So it's both good and bad. One of the challenges in the future will be how do we find meaning in life if you have a magic genie that can do everything you want? I do think it's hard when this new technology

16:34tends to usually follow an S curve. In this case, we're going to be on the exponential portion of the S curve for a long time. And you're really likely to be able to ask for anything. And we want to have universal basic income. We'll have universal high income. So in some sense, it'll be somewhat of a leveler or equalizer.

16:57Because really, I think everyone will have access this magic genie. And you're able to ask any question. It'll be certainly good for education. It'll be the best tutor. And then the most patient tutor. So they're all there. And there will be no shortage of goods and services. There will be an age of abundance.

17:19I think if I'd recommend people read in banks, the banks culture books are probably the best envisioning. In fact, not probably. They're definitely by far the best envisioning of an AI future. There's nothing you're in close. So I'd really recommend banks. I'm a very big fan. All these books are good.

17:41There's not every one, all of them. So that'll give you a sense of what is a fairly utopian or pro-topian future with AI. which is good from a, as you said, it's a universal high income, which is a nice phrase, and it's good from a materialistic sense, and your abundance, actually, that it then leads to the question that you pose, right?

18:10I'm somebody who believes work gives you meaning, like I think a lot about that, as I think work is a good thing, it gives people purpose in their lives, and if you then remove a large chunk of that, what does that mean, and where do you get that? Where do you get that drive, that motivation, that purpose?

18:26I mean, you were talking about it, you work a lot of hours. I was mentioning when we were talking earlier, I have to somewhat engage in deliberate suspension of disbelief because I'm putting so much blood, sweat and tears into a work project and burning the 3 AM oil. Then I'm like, wait, why am I doing this?

18:45I can just wait for the AI to do it. I'm just lashing myself for no reason. I'm just being glad for punishment or something. So we call them, call Demes and tell them to hurry up and then you can have a holiday, right? It's a plug. Yeah, no, it's a, look, it's a tricky thing because I think, you know, part of our job

19:06is to make sure that we can navigate to that very, I think, largely positive place that you're describing. It is like, and how much people throw it between now and then because these things bring a lot about a change in the labor market as we've seen. Yeah. I think it's probably is generally a good thing because, you know, there are a lot of jobs that are uncomfortable or dangerous or which sort of tedious. And the computer will

19:30have no problem doing that. They're happy to do that all day long. So, you know, it's fun to cook food, but it's not that fun to wash the dishes. And like, but the computer's perfectly happy to wash the dishes. I guess there is, you know, we still have sports, like where humans compete in like the Olympics. And obviously, a machine can go faster than

19:52any human, but we still have humans race against each other. And have these sports competitions against each other, where even though the machines are better, we're still, I guess, competing to see who can be the best human at something. And people do find fulfillment in that. So I guess that's perhaps a good example of how even when machines are faster than us stronger than us.

20:14We still find a way. We still enjoy competing against other humans, so at least the human is the best human. That's a good analogy. And we've been talking a lot about managing the risks. Before we move on and finish on AI, it's just talking a little bit about the opportunities. You're engaged in lots of different companies, neuro-looking and obvious one.

20:36Which is doing some exciting stuff. You touched on the thing that I'm probably most excited about, which is an education. And I think many people will have seen Sal Khan's video from earlier this year has talked about, as you talked about, it's like a personal tutor at Edge. an amazing personal tutor.

20:52An amazing personal tutor. And we know the difference in learning, having that personal tutor is incredible compared to class from learning. So if you can have every child have a personal tutor, specifically for them, that then just evolves with them over time. That could be extraordinary.

21:05And so that, for me, I look at it, I think, gosh, that is within reach at this point. And that's one of the benefits I'm most excited about. When you look at the landscape of things that you see as possible, what is it that you are particularly excited about? I think certainly AI tutors are going to be amazing.

21:25Perhaps already are. I think there's also perhaps companionship, which may seem odd, because how can the computer really be your friend. But if you have an AI that has memory and remembers all of your interactions and has read everything, you can say like give it permission to read everything you've ever done.

21:43So it really will know you better than anyone, perhaps even yourself. where you can talk to it every day and those conversations hold upon each other, you will actually have a great friend. As long as that friend can stay, your friend did not get turned off or something. Don't turn off my friends.

22:00But I think that will actually be a real thing. And one of my sons has some learning disabilities and has trouble making friends actually. And I was like, well, you know, he, the AI friend would actually be grateful. Oh, okay. Yeah, that was a surprising answer, but that's actually worth reflecting on.

22:24So it's really interesting. I mean, we're already seeing it actually as we deliver, you know, psychotherapy anyway, now doing far more by digitally and by telephone to people. And it's making a huge difference, and you can see a world in which actually, you know, AI can provide that social benefit to people.

22:40And just a quick question on X, and then we should open it up to everybody. You made a change when you made many changes. But one of the changes- Yeah, quite a few. You love that letter. Yeah. I've got a real thing about it. You really do. You really do. One of the changes, which kind of, it goes into the space that we have to operate in,

23:03and this balance between free speech and moderation is, you know, we grapple with as politicians. you were grappling with your inversion of that. And you moved away from a manual human way of doing it, the moderation to the community notes. And I think it was an interesting change.

23:23It's not what everyone else has done. What was the reasoning behind that? Why do you think that is a better way to do that? Yeah, part of the problem is if you're in power people as sensors, then there's going to be some amount of bias. they have, and then whoever points the senses is effectively in control of information.

23:44So then the idea behind theory notes is how do we have a consensus driven, I mean, so it's not really censoring it, but consensus driven approach to truth. How do we make things the least amount untrue? You can say like, you can't perhaps get to pure truth, but you can aspire to be more

24:06truthful. So the thing about community notes is it doesn't actually delete anything, it simply adds context. Now that context could be, this thing is untrue for the following reasons. But importantly with community notes, everything is open source, actually, so you can see the software, every line of the software,

24:28you can see all of the data that went into a community note and you can independently create that community note. So if you've got, if you see manipulation of the data, You can actually highlight that and say, well, this, there appears to be some gaming of the system. And you can suggest improvements.

24:45So it's maximum transparency, which is combined with the kind of wisdom of the crowds and transparency to get to a better answer. And really, one of the key elements of community notes is that in order for a note to be shown, people who have historically disagreed must agree. And there is a bit of AI usage here.

25:05So this will populate a parameter space around each contributed to community notes. And then a parameter space. So everyone's got basically these vectors associated with them. Which is not as simple as Rijolift. It's saying it's several hundred vectors because things are more complicated than something right or left.

25:28And then we'll do sort of inverse correlation. say like, okay, these people generally disagree, but they agree about this note. And so then that gives the note credibility. Yeah, that's the core of it. And it's working quite well. I get to see a note actually be present for more than a few hours that is incorrect.

25:53So the batting average is extremely good. And when I ask people, so they're worried about community notes sort of being disinformation like send me one, and then they can't. So I think it's quite good. I mean, the general aspiration is what the X platform is to inform and entertain the public and to be as accurate as possible and as truthful as possible, even if someone doesn't like the truth.

26:18You know, people that always like the truth. No. It's not always. But that's the aspiration. And I think if we stay true to the truth, then I think we'll find that people use the system to learn what is going on and to learn. I think actually truth pays. So I think it will be, assuming you don't want to engage in self-tolution, then

26:45I think it's the smart move. Excellent. Very helpful. Right. Let's open it up to all our guests here. We've got some microphones, they'll come up, they'll come and find you. We've got yes, go for it. Thank you. Good evening, Alice Bentink from Entrepreneur First. Thank you for a fascinating conversation. I suppose a question for each of you.

27:10Prime Minister, the UK has some of the best universities in the world. We have the talent. What will it take for the UK to be a real breeding ground for unicorn companies? And Elon, being a founder in the UK is still a non-obvious career choice for the most exceptional technical talent.

27:28What are the cultural elements that we need to put into place to change this? Thank you both. Well, you want to go first? Go for it. Sure. You're right that there are cultural elements where the culture should celebrate creating new companies. And there should be a bias towards supporting small

27:53companies, because they're the ones that need nurturing the larger companies really don't need nurturing. So you can think of it sort of like a God, and if it's a little sprout that needs nurturing, if it's a mighty oak, it doesn't need quite as much. So I think that is a mindset change that is important.

28:12But I should mention that London and San Francisco or the Bay Area are really the two senses for AI. So London is actually doing very well on that front. The two leading locations on a, you know, San Francisco is probably head of London, but London's really very strong. Or London area, greater London, home counties, I guess.

28:38I'll keep going, keep going. So I'm just saying objectively this is the case. But you do need that, you need the infrastructure, you need landlords who are willing to rent to new companies, you need law firms and accountants that are willing to support new companies. And it's generally a mind, it is a mindset change.

29:03And I think some of that is happening, but I think really it's just culturally people need to decide this is a good thing. Yeah. No, actually, well, thanks for what you said about the UK. It's something that we work hard on, lots of people in the room are part of what makes this a fabulous place for any of the companies, including Alice.

29:20So, Alice White says, my job is to get all the nuts and bolts right, make sure that all of you starting companies can raise a capital that you need, everything from your seed funding with our incredible EIS tax reliefs all the way through to your late stage rounds and we need reform of our pension funds and the Chancellor's got a bunch of incredible reforms to unlock

29:43capital from all the people who have it and deploy it into growth equity, right? That is a work in progress. We're not there yet. I think we're making good progress. We need talent, we need people. So that means an education system that prioritizes the things that matter. And you've seen my reforms.

29:58I go on about more maths, more maths, more maths. But I think that is important. But also attracting the best and the brightest here. If you look at our fastest growing companies in this country, and I think it's probably the same in the US, over half of them have a non-British founder.

30:15And that tells you we've got to be a place that is open to the world's best and brightest entrepreneurial talent. So the visa regime that we've put in place, I think, does that. Makes it easy for those people to come here. And then actually, it's the thing that we spent the beginning of the session talking about, the regulation.

30:30Making sure that we've got a regulatory system that's pro-innovation, that, yeah, of course, we always need guardrails on the things that we'll worry us, but we've got to create a space for people to innovate and do different things. Those are all my jobs. The thing that is tougher is the thing that Elon talked about, which is culture.

30:47is how do you transpose that culture from places like Silicon Valley across the world where people are unafraid to give up the security of a regular paycheck to go and start something and be comfortable with failure. You talk about that a lot. I think you talk about it more in when you're playing games, right?

31:05But you've got to be comfortable failing and knowing that that's just part of the process. And that is a tricky cultural thing to do overnight, but it's an important part of, I think, creating that kind of environment. Yeah, if you don't succeed with your first startup, it shouldn't be a catastrophic career ending.

31:20Exactly. It should be, well, good. I think you're doing it. It should be like, well, you gave it a good shot. And now try again. Exactly. Yeah. So one thing I was going to mention is, obviously, creating a company is sort of a high risk, high reward situation. But I don't know quite what this works in the UK.

31:42I think it's probably better than Continental Europe. But the stock options are very difficult in most parts. You're not sure how to do it. But if somebody's basically going to risk the sort of life savings and the vast majority of startups fail. So I mean, you hear about the startups that succeed.

32:02But most companies are, most startups consist of a massive amount of work followed by failure. That's actually most companies. And so it's a high risk higher award. And so the higher award part does need to be there for it to make a sense. I think that was a very soft pitch for a tax policy.

32:23I mean, Charles, but actually I can tell you. So look, AI agree. So we have, I think, relative to certainly European countries, but certainly the US is definitely California, a much lower rate of capital gains tax. So for those people who are risking and growing something, we think the reward should be there at the end.

32:41So 20% capital gains tax rate. And on stock options, I don't know if we've got anyone from index ventures in the room. So index one of our leading VC funds here. They do a regular report looking at most countries' tax treatment of stock options. And when I was chancellor at Treasury Secretary equivalent,

33:03we were, I think, down at, we were pretty good, but we were fourth or fifth. And I said, we need to, for exactly the reason that you mentioned, I was like, this has got to be the best place for innovators. We need to move that up. And I think in the last iteration of that report, we had, because of the changes that Jeremy and I have made, we have moved up to, I think, second from memory.

33:22So I hope that actually give you and everyone else some comfort that we recognize that's important. Because when people work hard and risk things, yeah, they should be able to enjoy the rewards of that. I respect the rewards. And I think we very much have a tax system that supports that.

33:35And those are the values that I believe in, and I think most of us in this room probably do as well. Right, next question. I've got seven in front of me, and then I'll come over here. John, John, sir. Thanks very much. We've talked about some really big ideas, global changing ideas.

33:53I'm really interested, particularly in the context of creation of science and technology super hubs and so on, how does that map onto the everyday lives of people living in, say, Austin, Texas, to choose one around you more, in my case, Nottingham, East Midlands. How do you see that evolving for people every day?

34:12be sort of everyday effects of AI? Yeah. For context, Elon, so Seb runs our equivalent of CVS, right, or Walgreens, so, you know, when actually I visited, right, so he's got millions of people coming in in his shops every day and it's making sure, how do we make this relevant, I think Seb is your question, how is this relevant to that person?

34:34You know, actually, let me go first on that, because I think it's a fair point. I was just going over with the team, a couple of things that we're doing, because I was saying like, how are we doing AI right now that it's making a difference to people's lives? And we have this thing called Gov.UK, which is when it happened several years ago was a pioneering thing.

34:55All the government information brought together on one website, Gov.UK. So you need to get a driving license, passport, any interaction with government, it was centralized in a very relatively easy to use way. It's better than most, better than most. Yeah, so we are about to deploy AI across that platform. So that is something that I think several million people a day use,

35:19right? So a large chunk of the population is interacting with gov.uk every single day to do all these day-to-day tasks, right? Every one of your customers is doing all those things. And so we're about to deploy AI into that to make that whole process so much easier. Because some people will be like, well, I'm currently here and I've lost my passport and my flights

35:40in five hours, at the moment that would require how many steps to figure out what you do. Actually, when we deploy the AI, it should be that you could just literally say that and boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. This is what we're going to do, walk you through it. And that's going to benefit millions and millions of people every single day, right?

35:56Because that's a very practical way in my seat that I can start using this technology to help people in their day-to-day lives, not just healthcare discoveries and everything else that we're also doing. I thought that's quite a powerful demonstration of literally your day-to-day customer

36:11seeing actually their just day-to-day life get a little bit easier because of something that Elon Demis and others in this room have helped create. Yeah, exactly. The most immediate thing is just being able to ask, like having a very smart friend that you can ask anything, you know, ask how to make something, how to solve

36:29any problem and it'll tell you. And obviously companies are going to adopt this. So I think we'll have much better customer service, I guess, essentially. That'll probably be the first thing you notice. And then we talked about education. So having a tutor, so if you're trying to understand a subject like having a phenomenal tutor on any subject,

36:59that's really pretty much there already almost. And we need to, obviously AI needs to stop hallucinating before, you know, it can't give you, I mean, we still have a little bit of a problem where it can give you an answer that's confidently wrong with great grammar. And, you know, in a bullet points and everything in citations it was not real.

37:20So that's to be okay, we need to make sure it's, It's not giving you confidently wrong tutor answers. But that's going to happen pretty quickly, where it is actually correct. So yeah. I'm going to say for any parent who was homeschooling during COVID and realizing what their kids needed to be helped with, that will come as an enormous relief, I think.

37:43Yeah. Very, very good. Right. And we've got quite let's go questions over here. We've got, we've got any microphones or Brent, are you there? Perfect. Hi, Brent Hoebman. So you've spoken eloquently about abundance and the age of abundance. So it feels obviously with AI, it's everything everywhere, everywhere all at once.

38:02But with robots, and to get the age of abundance, we'll need a lot of robots. I know you're working on robots as well. Are there sort of constraints that we should think of and our politicians should be thinking of, that we might get, one country might get heavily behind in robots that can do all these things and enter the age of abundance, and therefore be at a strategic disadvantage?

38:24Well, really anything that can be actuated by a computer is effectively a robot. So you can think of, frankly, Tesla cause our robots on wheels. Anything that's connected to the internet is effectively an endpoint actuator for artificial intelligence. So you've got Boston Dynamics.

38:49Obviously, they've been making impressive robots for a while. I think they're at this point mostly owned by Hyundai. So I guess who is probably going to make robots that are humanoid and some rather interesting shapes that I wasn't just making the one that looks like it has wheels and looks sort of like a kangaroo on wheels.

39:08I'm not sure what that is. Looks a little demented, frankly. But there's going to be all sorts of robots. You have a company Dyson in the UK, which I think is some pretty impressive things. I think the UK will not be behind, actually, on that front. UK also has Arm, which is really the best, one of the best, perhaps the best in chip design

39:42in the world. It tells they use a lot of Arm technology, almost everyone does, actually. So I think UK is in a strong position. Germany obviously makes a lot of robots, industrial robots. I mean, I think generally countries that make robots of any kind, even if they seem somewhat

40:03conventional, will be fine. I do think there is a safety concern, especially with humanoid robots, because at least the car can't chase you into this building, not very easily. or chase you off a tree, or you can sort of run up a flight of stairs and get away from a Tesla. I think it was a Stephen King movie about that.

40:31A few targets possessed. But if you have a humanoid robot, it can basically chase you anywhere. So I think we should have some kind of hardwired local cut-off that you can't update from the internet. So anything that can be software updated from the internet, obviously, can be overridden.

40:52But if you have a local sort of off switch where you have say a keyword or something and then that puts the robot into a safe state, some kind of localized safe state ability, an off switch where you don't have to get too close to the robot. I don't know, so if you've got millions of these things going all over the place.

41:15You're not selling it. Just, you know, like so. I know. I'm saying, is this something we should be quite concerned about? Because Robert can follow you anywhere, then what if they just one day get a software update and they're not so friendly anymore? We've got a James Cameron movie on our hands.

41:37It's actually, it's funny you saying that because in our session that we had today, I would say, they made exactly the same point, right? They were talking about, they're talking talking about movies, actually, about mentioning James Cameron, they're talking about James Cameron movies.

41:51And so they're saying, if you think about it, it's not just those movies, but any of these movies trains, subways, metros, or as buses, they said all these movies with the same plot fundamentally all end with the person turning it off, right, or finding a way to shut the thing down and they were making the same point that you were about the importance of

42:12actual physical off switches. is. All the technology is great, but fundamentally this same movie has played out 50 times. We've all watched it and all fundamentally, you know, point of view, right? Or ends in pretty much the same way with someone finding a way to just do the thing. Which is kind of interesting

42:29that you've said a similar point, right? It's not the obvious place you'd go to. Maybe that could be one of the tests for the AI. We should say like, blank is your favorite of the James Cameron movie, film in the blank. Yeah, excellent, right. Yes, we got over there, yep, perfect.

42:51Hi, a question for you both. So I'm a founder of AI and ML scale up in the third centre for AI, which is Leeds in the North England, a bit biased. Since the launch of chat GPT, three months after that, we saw a real increase in phishing attacks using much more sophisticated language patterns.

43:10What do we do to protect businesses, consumers, that they trust this technology better? And how do we bring them along that journey with us? Well, I think we shouldn't trust it that much, actually. It is actually quite a significant challenge, because we're going to the point where even open source AI can pass human capture tests.

43:33So this is, are you a human? Identify all the traffic lights in this picture. like, okay, yeah, it's going to have no problem doing that. In fact, it'll do it better than the human and faster than the human. So we're like, how do you, you know, it's the point of which is better, a better human, better passing human tests than humans, then, well,

43:52what tests actually make sense? That is a real problem. I don't actually have a good solution to it. That's one of the things we're trying to figure out on the X platform is how to deal with that because it really are at the point where even with open source, you know, readily available AI, you don't need to be sort of leading the field, you can actually be better than humans at passing these tests. And that's sort of why we think, well, perhaps

44:18we should sort of charge a dollar or a pound a year. It's a very tiny amount of money, but it still makes it privately expensive to make a million bots. So, and especially if you a million payment methods, then you run out of sort of stolen credit cards pretty quickly. So that's sort of where we're thinking like we might have to sort of just charge some very tiny amount of money, 0.3 cents a day effectively, to deal with the onslaught of

44:50AI-powered bonds. And that is still a growing problem, but it will be I think perhaps an insurmountable problem next year. And then you have to worry about manipulation of information. Making something seem very popular when it's not because it's getting boosted by all these likes and repos from AI powered bots.

45:15So that's why I sort of think somewhat inevitably it leads to some small payment in order to dramatically increase the cost of a bot. So I think frankly, I think probably any social media system that doesn't do that will simply be overrun by bots. I think my general answer would be we need to show that we are on top of mitigating the

45:41risk, so people can trust the technology. That's what actually the last couple of days has been about on the safety summit is just showing we're investing in the safety institute, having the people who can do the research on these things to figure out how we mitigate against them, and we have to do

45:57it fast and we have to keep iterating it. Because all of us probably in this room believe that the technology can be incredibly powerful, but we've got to make sure we bring people along that journey with us that we're handling the risks that are there. And there's a job to do in the last couple of days. I think we make good progress on it because we want to focus

46:14on the positives and manage these things. But that requires action and that's what the last couple of days have been about. Your analogy there was part of the research that actually the team working on the task force here, published and presented yesterday, I don't know if you saw it, was which is essentially that.

46:35It was a using AI to create a ton of fake profiles on social media and then infiltrate particular groups with particular information. And at the moment, that is, as I said to your point, I know it's like cost free. It's getting to the point where it's like, really you're gonna have a hundred for a penny sort of thing, ridiculous.

46:56And if you think about some of these social networks at what a neighborhood or town level, it's not that many big profiles that you quickly create, suddenly they're everywhere, and there's some local issue that might be of importance, and the team have run versions of how that looked like, and suddenly they're interacting with everybody, and then spreading misinformation around.

47:13Yeah, that's a real challenge. We literally as part of the research that we published on misinformation yesterday, it's a real challenge. Yeah, exactly, a two point. I mean, the images, you don't even need to steal somebody's picture, because that's traceable, but you can actually just say create a new

47:30image of a person, realistic looking, it doesn't exist, and then create a biography, realistic, but doesn't exist, and do that en masse. And practically the only way a bill tells us that the grammar is too good. Take it away. So typos, come on. Now I'm getting waved at, because I think we are out of time.

47:51I don't think we take one very brief last question. And let's make a good one. Yes, sir. Go on your own front and be calm. Elon, question for you. Related to the X platform. Are there simple things we can do, especially when it comes to visual media? You alluded to the fact that it's fairly straightforward and effectively free to make people like yourselves say and do things that you never said or did.

48:16Can we do something like cryptographically signed media? I'm from Adobe. We're working on this project. Twitter was a member. Love to see X come back. digitally signed media to indicate not only what was created by AI, but what came from a camera, what was real to imbue a sense of trust in media that can go viral.

48:32That's something a good idea actually. So some way of dedicating would be good. So yeah, that sounds like a good idea, I wish we could probably do it. Yeah. There you go. Actually, on that point, I've already, so this is particularly pertinent for people in my job, right? And I've already had a situation happen to me with a doctored image

48:58that goes everywhere, negative. By the time everyone realizes, well, that's fake and we should stop sending it, the damage is done. And actually, we were, again, reflecting today. If you think next year, you've got elections in, you know, I think, you know, the U.S., India, I think Indonesia, probably here. There you go. Massive news. And actually, you've

49:23You've got just an enormous chunk of the world's population is voting next year. You got EU elections as well. These issues are right in front of us. Next year is where big elections across the globe, probably the first set of elections where this has been a real issue. So figuring out how we manage that is, I think, kind of mission critical for people

49:45who want the integrity of our democracy. Yeah. I mean, some of it is quite interesting. Like the Pope in the Papa jacket, have you seen that one? That's amazing. But I mean, I still run into people who think that's real. I'm like, well, one of the odds he's wearing a puffer jacket in July in Rome.

50:02He'd be sweating. But it actually looked quite dashing, I think. In fact, I think AI fashion is going to be a real thing. So I've been doing it clearly. We live in the most interesting times. And I think this is 80% likely to be good. And 20% bad. I think if we're cognizant and careful about the bad part, on balance actually, it will be the future that we want.

50:25Or the future that is preferable. And it actually will be somewhat of a leveler, an equalizer in the sense that, I think everyone will have access to goods and services and education. And so, I think probably it leads to more human happiness. So I guess I'd probably leave on an optimistic note.

50:45Yeah. Yeah. Well, that is a great note to end on. I think we're all on that better future. I think it's there. The promise of it is certainly there. Lots of people in this room, including yourselves, are working hard to make it happen. Our job in government is to make sure it happens safely.

51:00But on the basis of this conversation in the last couple of days, I'm certainly leaving more confident that we can make that happen. It's been a huge privilege and a pleasure to have you here. Well, thank you very much for having me. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I think previously...

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