2002 年,马斯克给刚创办的 SpaceX 估的成功率不到 10%。他的原话是,大概率会死。
二十多年后,这家公司去年承担了全球大约 80% 的入轨载荷。中国占 12%,世界其余所有国家加起来 8%。今年如果顺利,SpaceX 一家的份额会到 90%。
星舰(Starship)跑顺之后,这个数字还要再跳一个量级。眼下全行业一年往轨道上送几百吨东西,马斯克说的目标是几十万吨,也许一百万吨。
这段对话发生在波兰。访谈前一天,他刚去过奥斯维辛。本·夏皮罗(Ben Shapiro)坐下来问的第一个问题,和火箭无关,和 AI 也无关。
他问的是:为什么现在左右两边都在攻击成功者?
"这就是换了包装的共产主义"
夏皮罗的观察很直接:创新者正在被围剿,而且这事不分党派。右边的人和左边的人共享同一个假设,谁在经济上成功了,谁就一定是在操纵规则,一定是踩着普通人爬上去的。
马斯克的回答没有绕弯子。
我觉得这里面有一部分,就是共产主义换了个包装重新上市,只是营销话术更新了。(马斯克)
他把话拉回到自由市场的定义上。资本主义的核心是精英制(meritocracy):最好的产品和服务胜出,做出它的是最努力、最有才华的那支团队。这条链条断了,自由市场就不成立。
让他意外的部分在于这件事的群众基础。这套理论还活着,他不惊讶。真正让他意外的是它在年轻人里的接受度。他在 X 上说过一句,美国大学生日子过得太顺,居然认真对待共产主义,这让他震惊。他以为这是个玩笑。
结果一堆人跑来骂他,说当然是认真的。
他的反应是那句"把书上的灰吹一吹"。这套实验跑过多少次了,每次收场都很糟。
然后他给了一个判断标准,锋利得可以直接拿去用。
任何一种政治哲学,你只要问它一个问题:哪一边需要建墙,把人关在里面。需要建墙的那一边,就是坏的那一边。建墙的不是西柏林。(马斯克)
这个标准的好处是它不需要定义。你不用先搞清楚什么是集体主义、什么是共同富裕、什么是更大的善,你只需要看墙在哪边,门朝哪边开。
那座谁也没见过的翡翠矿
访谈里有个插曲,值得单独拎出来说。
夏皮罗提到一种正在流行的改写:成功者的出身会被重新叙述。马斯克被安上的版本是,他父亲拥有一座翡翠矿,他是靠家里起家的。
马斯克的回应很具体,不像在辩解,更像在纠正一个技术错误。
整个祖母绿行业的产值小得可怜。他从没见过那座矿。那是我父亲编出来的一个故事。
他接着讲父亲,说这话时很小心。先讲清楚,我父亲有很多才华。他是极有天赋的电气和机械工程师,也是很出色的艺术家。能画伦勃朗风格的画,能画水彩,能画素描。你让他当场画这个房间,再给在场每个人画一张漫画,他能抓住那个人的性格。可能是我见过最好的即兴画手。
然后那句话:可惜他有几颗螺丝是松的。
父亲在九十年代破产了。他和弟弟供养了父亲二十五年。他没有从父亲那里继承任何东西。
他自己的版本是这样的:十七岁到加拿大,身上是两千多加元旅行支票,那年代还有这种东西。一个包装满衣服,一个背包塞满书。全部家当。
这里有个值得停一下的地方。为什么要费这么大力气,把一个白手起家的人改写成继承人?
因为一旦承认他是从零开始的,"你也能"这个推论就成立了。而很多人不愿意接受这个推论。承认他能做到而我没做到,比相信他作弊要难受得多。改写他的出身,其实是给自己找一个能接受的解释。
这套机制不只作用于马斯克。任何一个从零开始的故事,只要它足够耀眼,就会被改写成"他本来就有条件"。改写成功之后,读者就可以安心了。
AI 之后不是全民基本收入,是"全民高收入"
夏皮罗讲了一件事。他最近和一位美国的重要政治人物聊天,那人不在左翼。对方提出,应该立法禁止自动驾驶,因为这会砸掉卡车司机的饭碗。技术要先停下来,等一等被甩下的人。
这个问题其实是所有技术争论的母题:进步的速度该不该由最慢的那部分人来定。
马斯克先给了一个比他平时说法更狠的判断。
首先,如果真的有了数字超级智能,我不确定还有谁有工作。(马斯克)
然后他把话题拉到一个更远的场景。在积极的 AI 未来里,商品和服务不会短缺。所以终点是全民高收入(universal high income),全民基本收入(universal basic income)只是中间站。
听起来是好消息。他马上说了坏消息在哪。
他提到维克多·弗兰克尔(Viktor Frankl)的《活出意义来》(Man's Search for Meaning)。那本书讲的是人在极端处境下怎么找到活下去的理由。马斯克拿它说明一件事:如果你把自己定义成你的职业,当电脑把每件事都做得比你好,你会找不到意义。
那才是真正的挑战。吃饭不会成问题。真正的问题是早上起来不知道干什么。
他设想了一种可能:人打游戏、看剧、玩水上运动,机器负责其余所有事。他管这个叫"平淡的场景",不算灾难,但也没多大意思。
然后他推荐了一套书。伊恩·班克斯(Iain M. Banks)的《文化》系列(Culture novels)。他说那可能是关于 AI 未来最好的半乌托邦想象:计算机远比人类聪明,但它们照顾人类,它们在意人类是否快乐。
这个推荐有来由。马斯克在不同场合说过好几次这套书。一个正在造超级计算机的人,反复推荐一套"机器当家长"的小说,这里面的信息量比很多 AI 安全报告都大。
他的宗教叫好奇心
话题转到生育率。西方的生育率已经低到维持不了人口更替。夏皮罗有四个孩子,他开玩笑说这算走到前面了。马斯克自己那边的家庭规模比这大得多。
马斯克给了一组相关性,说得很清楚,这些是客观相关,不是因果:生育率和一个人的宗教程度正相关,和受教育程度负相关,和贫困程度正相关。越穷、受教育越少、越虔诚的人,孩子越多。
夏皮罗从这里切进去,提了一个论证。他说这三条里,西方唯一能保留、又不必丢掉西方全部成果的那一条,是对更高力量的信仰。因为你可以富有,可以受过良好教育,但你不能是虚无主义者。虚无主义不指向任何东西。
马斯克的回答值得完整看。
我的宗教,找不到更好的词,就是好奇心。我们想扩大意识的规模和范围,在地球上,在地球之外,最终到其他恒星系。(马斯克)
这套东西不是口号,它有内在的推导链。
要扩大意识的规模,就需要更多有意识的存在,所以需要更多人。人够多,才能撑起一个自给自足的火星城市,才能铺满太阳系,才能往外走。
扩大意识有什么用?他的答案是:我们越能扩大意识的规模和范围,就越能理解身处的这个现实,越能理解宇宙的本质,越能回答我们已有的问题。
他后面那句话分量更重:比回答问题更重要的,是知道我们还有哪些问题没在问。
他引了道格拉斯·亚当斯(Douglas Adams)的《银河系漫游指南》。答案是容易的部分,42 谁都会说。难的是问题是什么。
这套哲学有个额外的好处,他自己点出来了:它给别的信仰留了位置。你可以在"扩大意识规模"这个底层设定之上,叠加任何你想要的信念。
费米悖论,和一根刚好没烧完的蜡烛
夏皮罗承认没听过费米悖论。马斯克解释了一遍。
恩里科·费米(Enrico Fermi)是那个时代最好的物理学家之一。他问了一个特别简单的问题:外星人在哪?
宇宙有一千多亿个星系,每个星系有一千多亿颗恒星,行星更多。按概率算,早该看到点什么。可我们什么都没看到。
很多人说自己见过外星人的迹象。马斯克的立场是:我没看到任何证据。
那怎么解释这个沉默?
他认为最可能的答案之一是:人类意识是这片宇宙里仅有的一小簇烛光。在有相反证据之前,应该按这个假设来行动。
接着他算了一笔时间账。
人类意识花了四十五亿年才出现。地球形成,生命出现,单细胞熬了几十亿年,多细胞出现,然后才有了会造技术的东西。
这笔账里最要命的一条是:如果意识出现得再晚 10%,它可能永远不会出现。
太阳在不断膨胀。地球随之升温,海洋蒸发,这颗行星会变得像金星一样,不适合生命存在。也就是说,人类是在一个窗口期里醒过来的,可能刚好赶上了末班车。
马斯克的推进逻辑很直接:既然这个窗口可能开很久,也可能开得不久,那就不该假设它开得久。所以现在就得动手,把生命变成多行星的。
这里有个常被忽略的细节,也是他反复强调的那个过滤器的具体定义。
多行星物种不等于在火星上插个旗、留一串脚印。第二个行星必须自给自足。判断标准很清楚:如果来自地球的补给船因为任何原因停了,可能是小事,也可能是大事,火星会不会死掉?会,那就没过关。
他说,那个特定的过滤器问的是:如果一个星球上出了灾难性的事,人类还在不在?
至于自给自足要多久,他给了个跨度,大约四十年。
从土星五号到航天飞机,一条不该有的下行曲线
夏皮罗问了一个很多人憋着没问的问题:把人送上月球之后,为什么接下来五十年,这个势头就断了?
马斯克讲了一段航天史,讲得很技术,但内核是个管理学教训。
阿波罗之后,接力的是航天飞机。航天飞机的目标本来是复用,结果没做到。它太难翻修,每次飞行的成本和一次性的土星五号差不多。
更要命的是结构设计。航天飞机的承力主结构其实是那个橙色大外储箱,因为整个箭体的载荷都要通过它传到轨道器和两侧助推器上。这个箱子每次都要扔掉。两侧的固体助推器溅落海里,捞回来还得运回工厂重新灌装固体燃料。
结果就是:成本和一个一次性火箭一样,运力只有四分之一,还去不了月球。
他用一句话收了这个曲线:从月球,退到近地轨道,再退到什么都没有。这条曲线延长下去,永远到不了多行星。
SpaceX 就是为了把这条曲线掰回来。
然后他主动交了个底。刚创办的时候,他给自己的成功率是不到 10%。他以为会死。但他有句话说得挺硬:一件事如果足够重要,即使你认为它会失败,也值得去做。
前三次发射全失败。第四次成了,也就是猎鹰一号的第四次。如果那一次也失败,公司就没了。
他说,当时真的很接近。
"一家车企的默认状态是死亡"
夏皮罗接着追问那种感觉。SpaceX 差一点死,Tesla 也差一点死。作为 CEO,你是享受这种风险吗?
马斯克说他并不去找风险。但他给出了一句关于汽车行业的话,值得任何想创业的人抄下来。
一家美国车企的默认状态是死亡。到目前为止,没有破产过的只有福特和特斯拉。通用和克莱斯勒 2009 年进了破产程序。之前已经有几百家车企破产了。(马斯克)
这句话解释了很多看起来很奇怪的行为。为什么一家公司会突然大幅降价、会砍成本、会做一些看起来不顾体面的事。因为在那个行业里,活着本身就是需要不断制造奇迹的结果。
夏皮罗问他,你觉得这是因为你的性格适合这个,所以你才成功?还是每家公司都在不停从帽子里往外掏兔子?
马斯克的回答很朴素。要掏的兔子太多了,多到像一窝兔子。
他说自己擅长解决技术问题。火箭和车,本质上都是技术问题,加上一支很强的团队。
到目前为止,还行。
这里面没有传奇色彩。他没有说自己有什么特殊直觉,也没有说自己能看到别人看不到的东西。他给的解释是:会解技术题,和一群很强的人一起解,一直解下去。
买下推特,和那些不能说的话
话题转到 X。夏皮罗的说法是,很多人把这看成拯救言论自由的时刻。因为在所有大型科技平台上,都有一只看不见的手在压着。
马斯克提到他自己的观察,说主流媒体走得整齐得让人吃惊,没有一家掉队。X 是第一个掉队的,它不再跟着那个被批准的说法走。
他认为公众没意识到媒体欺骗中最大的一块在哪。编造事实只是小头,大块在叙事的选择上。
一个编辑可以写这件事,也可以写那件事,但头版只能放下几条。这个动作本身,就是在决定全国人今天该关心什么。于是人们关注的东西,跟着几个编辑的偏好走,跟自己真正在意的事情脱了钩。
他要的是让叙事从人群里自己长出来。人可以说法律允许范围内的话。法律不够好,就去找你选出来的代表去改法律。除此之外,就守住宪法和法律,让人说,哪怕你不喜欢他说的话。
他还补了一句:言论自由真正的测试,恰恰是有人说了你不喜欢的话。否则那就不是言论自由。
夏皮罗问他,你这几年最大的一个成果,是把什么话题从禁区里拉出来了?
马斯克举的例子是:男性和女性作为生物学类别,曾经是不能说的。说了会被封号。连讨论都不行。
他没多解释。但这个例子挑得准,因为它不带立场,纯粹是个语言事实的问题,却被封了好几年。一个连基本事实都不能讨论的地方,谈什么自由。
夏皮罗也追问了边界的难题。他说,做平台负责人最难的地方在于,总有一条线之外的什么东西,你得决定它不能上。你怎么划这条线?
马斯克的划分是三层:
- 违法内容:比如威胁杀人,这会导致账号被封。
- 不适合广告商的内容:可能涉及色情,或者议题太有争议,广告商不会愿意投。
- 其余一切:都放行。
他拿唐纳德·卢卡(X 上争议极大的账号)举例。那人说很边缘的东西,有些还是不实的,经常被社区笔记(Community Notes)打脸。但说边缘话是他的权利。同样地,广告商不投他的帖子,也是广告商的权利。
两边都有自由,谁也不强迫谁。这就是他的框架。
微信是参照物,X 要做的是一站式
聊到 X 的未来,马斯克给的对标是微信。
在中国,你基本是活在微信里的:买东西、发文字、发语音、发视频、付款,一个应用全包。
他想让 X 至少具备做所有事的能力。你不一定都要用,但如果你想,你能在里面完成。
他给了一句自我评价:这大概就是 PayPal 本该成为的样子。PayPal 当年走偏了,只做支付,没有长成一个生活平台。
具体的时间表他给了几项:支付功能今年晚些时候拿到批准后上线;音视频通话在推,包括群组通话。也就是说,私信不再只是打字,可以直接打语音和视频。
夏皮罗问他一天怎么过。他说每天都不一样。第二天去帕洛阿尔托的特斯拉,过一遍 Optimus 人形机器人和新车型的工程设计评审,还有特斯拉的自动驾驶 AI。周三是一堆产品会,围绕 X 平台的软件,改进音视频通话。
他说自己是产品出身,做技术产品,这就是他干的事。
他怎么开会
夏皮罗引了个棒球比喻。道奇队经理汤米·拉索达(Tommy Lasorda)说过,管理球队像手里握一只鸽子:握太松它飞了,握太紧它死了。
马斯克说他不知道这个比喻对应什么。他只描述了自己实际怎么开会的。
团队围着桌子,每个人讲过去一周做完了什么,下一周打算做什么。然后一起做产品设计和方向上的决定,或者解决某个具体的技术问题。
他特别强调了两点。会议气氛很平等;他是会上说话最少的那个。
这条信息被很多人漏掉了。一个同时管着四家公司、加起来十几万员工的人,说自己开会时讲话最少。开会的主要动作是听信息怎么流动,在哪里卡住,然后做决定。
顺带给了规模:特斯拉大约 14 万人,SpaceX 1.5 万人,xAI 约 300 人,X 约 1300 人。
奥斯维辛的第一课:先关掉所有报纸
访谈前一天,两人去了奥斯维辛。夏皮罗说这是他经历过最沉重的一次。
回看这段对话,它和前面买下推特的逻辑接得严丝合缝。
马斯克讲了他从中学到的那件事:德国人进来之后,做的第一件事是关掉所有媒体。之后所有内容都严格审查,除非经过政府预审,什么都不能发。
言论自由是民主的基石。言论自由让暴行可以被指出来,让人们知道发生了什么。这就是为什么他们一上来就关掉媒体。失去言论自由,我们就会失去民主。(马斯克)
这个论证不用讲道德,讲机制就够了。暴行需要一个安静的环境,而审查提供的正是这个环境。信息不流通,外面的人就不知道。
所以他一直把"扩大可讨论的范围"当成一件正经事在做,不是嘴上说说。
DEI 是一个阴谋论,而且是反犹的那种
这一段是整场访谈里最不客气的地方,值得完整看。
夏皮罗先铺垫。他说 DEI 本质上是一个阴谋论:有一小撮掌握权力的人站在顶端,控制着其他所有事;因为他们在顶端,所以他们剥削所有人,必须被拉下来。
然后他指出,这个结构和反犹阴谋论高度重合。
马斯克接得很快:这个想法极其反犹,而且它整体上是反精英制的,我认为非常危险。
他给出自己想要的规则,短得可以刻在门上:
你想要一个社会,成功靠技能和努力。就这样。跟你的种族、性别、信仰、宗教都没关系。只问:你这份工作做得好不好?你努力吗?你有高操守吗?没有别的。到此为止。(马斯克)
他还讲了一个很少被提到的副作用,针对那些靠真本事上来的人:
DEI 会毁掉这些人成就的可信度。别人会问,你是真的行,还是因为配额?他们应得的尊重被抽走了。
夏皮罗的补充更狠。他说,反对精英制这种主张,只有一种条件下才立得住:你得在心里默认,自己在精英制里赢不了。推得最用力的那些人,往往是这个原因。
马斯克的形容是:居高临下,带着施舍的味道。
关于精英制为什么重要,夏皮罗给了一个角度,我很喜欢。他说,精英制是人类设计过的唯一一个能产生正外部性的系统。其他所有系统都是负的,因为你在给某个特定群体分好处,不在那个群体里的人就倒霉。而精英制的逻辑是:赢的人,本身就有能力为其他人创造东西。
马斯克还给了一个时间判断。DEI 其实违法,因为它按种族、性别、性取向区别对待。一个违法的事怎么被装进制度的,他也说不清。但现在的局面是,大量诉讼正在进来,法律说得很清楚:不能基于这些区别对待。
他的结论:DEI 已经是强弩之末,它会走开,因为它真的违法。
"规矩像垃圾一样,每年积一层"
回到商业。夏皮罗问,现在阻碍公司成功最大的东西是什么?有个人人都在说的说法:你那条路现在走不通了,像你这样的人当年能成,现在门关了。
马斯克没接受这个前提。他说美国新公司一直在成立。
但他承认有个东西在恶化:监管的蠕变。
他的比喻是垃圾堆积。法律和规章是不死的,而监管者和立法者每年都在加新的。于是一年一层,越堆越高,最后堆到什么事都做不成。
那历史上怎么处理这个问题?他的回答有点冷:过去是靠战争。战争会把旧规则冲掉。拿破仑搞《拿破仑法典》,覆盖掉旧的法律体系,也带给农民一些东西。马斯克评价说,拿破仑做的坏事不少,但好事更多。证据是,今天地球上大概三分之一到一半的国家,法律体系还建立在拿破仑法典上。
他想要的是一个不需要战争的清理机制。原话是:我们需要给法律和规章建一套垃圾回收机制。
这和他后来在政府效率部门做的事,逻辑是一条线。
零和思维,是政治阶层的地基
夏皮罗提到了 1997 年出版的一本书,《主权个人》(The Sovereign Individual)。书里预言了一个"规避的时代":人能搬动资金,搬到监管最友好的地方去。
马斯克把它落到现实。美国现在以为自己有优势,因为历史上一直有。但这不代表未来还会这样。公司往新加坡搬,往别处搬,就是为了躲监管。
他补了个细节:美国各州之间的差距也很大。加州监管最重,纽约第二。所以越来越多的人把事放到加州和纽约之外去做。
关于监管本身,他区分了两种。一种是出于公共利益的,比如汽车要满足的安全规则,一个房间里堆满书都写不完。这类至少有正当目的。另一种,他认为要坚决反对:任何反精英制的监管。
然后是最硬的一段,关于经济这块饼到底是不是固定的。
他说,很多负面情绪的地基上有一个公理级的错误:假设饼是固定的,是零和。别人成功,一定是从这块固定饼里多拿了一块。
但饼不是固定的。今天的人均产出、商品和服务总量,远远超过过去。你创办一家新公司,做出新产品和新服务,你是在把饼做大。你没有从任何人那里拿走任何东西,你造出了原本不存在的东西。
他列了一串:我们以前没有 iPhone,没有电脑,没有汽车,不能坐飞机,没有今天这些救命的药。这些都是新造出来的。饼在急剧变大。
他把这个区别提得很高:这是创新者、生意人、自由市场一方,和政治阶层之间最根本的分歧。
政治阶层几乎完全建立在饼是固定的这个假设上。因为如果饼固定,你赢得选举的方法就是承诺把饼多分给某群人。或者承诺从私营部门拿钱过来,由你亲自把饼做大。
夏皮罗加了一句判断标准:第一个不值得听的政客,就是那个说"我能解决你所有问题"的人。这条标准基本筛掉了所有人。
马斯克对政府的定义也很干净:政府就是公司的极限形态。它是一家公司,只不过它是垄断的,它不会破产,除非整个国家破产,而且它垄断了暴力。
所以,你要给这个世界上最大的、垄断暴力的公司多少权力?
他的答案是:大概应该更少。
他举了个天然的对照实验。东西德,南北韩。同一种人,同一种文化,被一条战争划出来的线分开。
西德的生产率是东德的五倍。而西德并不算什么纯正的资本主义堡垒,它有一半是社会主义的。所以如果一边是半社会主义,另一边是百分百的社会主义或共产主义,实际差距大概是十倍。
他赶紧补了一句:他不是主张废除政府。他主张的是让政府做最少的事。因为政府做的每件事,效率都要低五到十倍。
例子是车管所。夏皮罗说,我尽量不去想。
他的财富是股票,不是现金
聊到这里,夏皮罗提了个很多人不说的点。外面议论马斯克的个人财富,但那笔财富主要是股票,而股票背后是整家公司。
马斯克确认了:完全是股票。
然后他讲了这套财富是怎么形成的,讲得很具体。
第一家公司 Zip2,他一分钱都没有,只有十万块学生贷款。
之后不一样了。他把 Zip2 卖掉的钱,全投进了 X.com,也就是后来的 PayPal。PayPal 卖掉的钱,全投进了特斯拉和 SpaceX。
他的理由是:如果我自己不准备投钱,我没道理让投资人来投。拿别人的钱来做事,他觉得不对。你要有切身利益在里面,把你的资本和投资人的资本放在一起。
所以他在公司里持有大量股份。公司做得越好,股份越值钱。但那是因为饼变大了,跟他从谁手里拿走了什么无关。
这段话和开头的提问在这里闭合。开场问的是"为什么大家恨成功者",答案就在这:恨,来自把饼看成固定的。
十二岁那年的存在危机,和一本玩笑书
快结束时,夏皮罗问了一个大问题:有没有哪个经历,定义了你这个人?
马斯克说他不知道有没有单独一个经历。
他读了大量哲学和宗教方面的书。十二三岁的时候,他经历了一次存在危机,就是那种"活着到底为什么"的塌陷感。
把他拉出来的是一本书:《银河系漫游指南》。他说那其实是一本哲学书,只是用幽默包着。
它给了他一套新的框架:去试着理解生命的意义。然后如果你把这个设为公理,也就是你确实想理解生命的意义、理解宇宙的本质,那么为了做到这件事,你必须扩大意识的规模和范围,必须走出去,探索星系。然后你才可能更理解生命的意义。
夏皮罗在这里做了一个漂亮的收尾。他说这很有趣,因为托马斯·阿奎那和很多神学家最后也落到同一个地方。宗教的基本前提是:探索宇宙,就是探索神;你对周围世界每一次探索,本质上都是对神之体系的探索,都会让你更靠近神性。
他说马斯克是绕了个远路走到这里的,哪怕他并不谈神。
马斯克的回应很坦率,他不接受"信神"这个前提,但他接受结论:
我不只是同意那些信神的人。我是在说,即使你信神,那我们就更该走出去,去探索神那奇妙的造物。(马斯克)
这大概是他整套世界观最简的版本。不管信还是不信,走出去这件事都得做。
如果你只能带走几样东西
这篇访谈的信息密度很高,但真正能拿来用的东西不多。下面几条是我认为可以带走、可以动手做的。
- 用"墙在哪边"判断一套主张。遇到任何听起来很善意的集体安排,先问一句:哪一边需要建墙把人关在里面。这个答案通常比对概念下定义快得多。
- 检查自己有没有把饼当成固定大小。这个假设会渗进工资谈判、同事升职、同行成功、政策判断里。看到别人赚钱先想"他抢了谁的",就说明这个假设还在起作用。
- 给"进步该不该等最慢的人"这个问题准备一个答案。禁止自动驾驶保住的是当下的岗位,代价是未来十年的效率和安全。这个权衡会越来越常见,早想清楚比临场表态好。
- 把开会的话说少一半。一个管十几万人的人说自己会上讲话最少。先让信息流到桌上,决定再下。
- 给工作之外留一条意义来源。马斯克说的那个风险是真的:如果你全部的身份都挂在职业上,机器超过你那天,你会不知道早上起来干什么。现在就多养几条线,别等那天。
- 想做一件很可能失败的事,先把仓位压到"输了也认"。他给自己的成功率是 10%,前三次发射全炸。他做的是把失败变得可以承受,然后一直坐到第四次。
最后回到那个 12 岁的问题。他想知道自己为什么活着,于是选了一条路:把意识的规模和范围做大。这个选择后来长成了火箭、车、卫星网络和一家社交平台。
有意思的是,这条路他没有走完,也不可能走完。他给的理由本身就已经足够:答案容易,难的是知道我们还有哪些问题没在问。
0:00Are we live or? I don't know, I assume we are. We're rolling. We're rolling. Okay. You guys are good. This is how normal we are. Yeah. You're just going to the front. Yeah, yeah, sure, sure. So, okay. Let's go see the chairs. You too. Yeah. Yeah. Lovely country of Poland. Yeah, exactly.
0:18Didn't expect to meet a nice girl like you here. Here we are. We're in Poland. They just brought us together. Exactly. So, I want to ask you about what feels like a giant war on the meritocracy on achievement. You're the richest person in the world. You've started three of the biggest companies in history.
0:32Non-sovereign, not counting sovereign. No, I can't not. And who would? And who would? It's a sound, not a sugar-pooten from, you know, I'm the buddy. Well, yeah, I mean, I'm a starter-war-ish. Exactly, exactly. If you were assassinations, I'd love this as well. Yeah, yeah, exactly.
0:47So, why do you think right now there is such a war? And it seems like on all sides of the political aisle, against people who achieve, against people who are smart. It feels like right now innovators are under attack. And again, it doesn't seem like that's super political. It seems like people on the right and people on the left have this giant theory that the economy, that whoever succeeds in the economy, must necessarily be rigging it, that innovators are somehow screwing the little guy.
1:15Now what do you make of that? Where's that coming from? Well, I mean, I think some of this is really just communism rebranded, just with different marketing. Fundamental to the free market or capitalism is meritocracy. It made the best product or service win, and the best product or service will be made by the team that works the hardest, as the most talented,
1:41and that is what results in great products and services in a capitalist economy. me. And, you know, I always blows my mind when I discover that, you know, kids coming out of college in America who have had things very easy take communism actually seriously. It blows my mind. I thought it was a joke. If I was on X, FK, Twitter, I was joking, but
2:09the ridiculousness of taking that seriously anymore. And then a whole bunch of people attacked me, like of course it's serious. I'm like what? You guys crazy just dust off your copy of dust, copper to all of you. What are you kidding me? I'm like how many times does that experiment bring run with terrible consequences?
2:28And you know generally for any given political philosophy, you have to say which side has to build the world to keep people in. That's the bad side. It's not subtle. It wasn't West Berlin that built the wall. Wait, you see this giant sort of myth making project that's taken place where, you know, if you are successful, they now have to rewrite history about you.
2:55So you've gotten the, you were apparently an emerald scion, you were brought uber wealthy. We were just one. We were just one. I'd like to see a picture of this mine. If everyone can dig this mine up, I'd love to see it. First of all, the entire emerald industry is like worth of pittance.
3:11And I've never been seen this mine. It's some random story that my dad made up, basically. My dad, who has many talents, I want to be clear, he's an extremely talented electrical and mechanical engineer, and a very talented artist. I mean, he could draw everything from like in the style of rambrons to watercolors to sketches, anything.
3:38you could sketch this room and then say do a caricature of anyone and he'll do a capture that matches their personality. It might be the best real-time artist I've ever seen. So he's got a lot of talents but unfortunately he has a few screws loose. Fast don't we all. And he actually went bankrupt in the 90s. So my brother and I
3:59have been supporting it financially for the last 25 years and we've inherited nothing from him, you know, so there's no anything. I arrived in Canada with just over $2,000 in Canadian Travelers' checks back when that was a thing. And one bag full of my clothes and a backpack full of books.
4:22That was my entire possessions. That's how I started, nothing more. And so why do you think people insist on rewriting the history, making it that you're in air? I mean, I get some of the same thing on mine or level, right? I brought the live. So I gave it air. Right. To air is human they say.
4:40But they air on the air. But there is something that's weird happening out there. You innovate and you make new things. And there is a drive to hem in that innovation. I was recently talking with a pretty major political figure in the United States who's not at the left. And he was suggesting, for example, that we need to have outlaw automated driving.
5:02He's going to put truckers out of work. Because if we don't automatically out love the new technologies, this kind of blood atism, then people are going to be out of work. It's going to destroy the society. And what we really have to focus on are the people who are going to be left behind by the technology.
5:14What do you make of that? Well, first of all, I think, ultimately, if you have digital superintelligence, I'm not sure there's a job for anyone. Yeah. So the whole AI discussion is a question in and of itself. I do think in a positive AI future that there will be no shortage of goods and services.
5:39So it won't be universal basic income, it'll be universal high income. Now that all sounds good, but in terms of the book, Man Search for Meaning, well, to to the degree that you're defined by your career, you may have trouble finding meaning in life. So that's more the challenge that, you know,
6:04if one is to have an existential crisis, it's like, well, how can I do anything useful if the computer can do everything better than me? That will really be the challenge. Now maybe that'll be fine. Maybe you just play, you know, watch it in credit or movies, play video games and do water sports and computer just does everything else.
6:23But I guess that's the blind scenario. Have you read in banks? No. Highly recommend in banks the culture books. It's probably the best semi utopian future of AI, where the computers are far smarter than humans, but they take care of the humans. Like they care about the humans being happy.
6:46So in that future, I mean, I think one of the things you've talked about is the fact that the West is completely under reproducing. Not too do you personally. You've been very productive. And I have for kids. We're both ahead of this. But that would be presumably. You're my fifth.
7:05I'll talk to my wife. That would be one of the places to presume that people will have to put their efforts. And what's interesting is that the people who are putting their efforts in those directions tend to be by and large more religiously oriented. We're seeing the science of acumen as well.
7:19there is you kids and religious people have many, many kids, right? The atheist are bringing themselves out. I talked to Richard Dawkins, you know. Yeah. Yeah. I wrote the selfish gene, mind-watchmaker and whatnot, and coined the term me, my belief. And I said, well, you know, so how many kids do you have, Richard?
7:41Oh, one. OK. So you're going to have one kid, great. Yes, the birth rate tends to correlate with the degree to which someone is religious, the degree to which they have the least amount of education, and basically the poorer someone is, the less educated someone is, and the more religious they are, the more kids they will have.
8:06So those are objective correlates. So I'm going to make the case to you on a religious level that the only one of those things that is possible to have in the West and not get rid of all the glories of the West is a belief in a higher power or inner religious belief of some sort because you can be rich
8:20and I mean, I'm doing pretty well with that four days. You can't be like a nihilist or something. Right, exactly. Like, nihilism doesn't tend toward anything. And I know that you've thought a lot about that sort of stuff and how do you get out of that sort of the nihilist box and find what to do?
8:36Well, my religion for lack of a better word is one of curiosity, where we want to expand the scope of scale consciousness on Earth and beyond Earth and ultimately to other star systems. And in order to do that, we need to increase the number of conscious beings and we need to advance technology such that we can have a self-sustaining city on Mars, ultimately
9:05populate the whole solar system and then go beyond our solar system to other star systems. And therefore, we need more humans. First of all. So I mean, that's an amazingly different goal than what we've had for the past. Yeah, I propose this as a new philosophy. Yeah. Well, not new, but maybe niche, but hopefully getting a bit bigger.
9:30So with that philosophy in mind, the purpose of that philosophy is that the more we expand the scope and scale of consciousness, the more we are able to understand the reality that we live in, the nature of the universe. And to answer the questions that we have, and perhaps more importantly, to know what
9:53questions we are not asking. As Douglas Adams would say in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, the answer is the easy the hard part, answers 42, what's the question? So I think that's a pretty optimistic, positive philosophy. Also has a lot of room for other beliefs, if you want to add them to the fundamental tenets of my belief structure are expand the scale of consciousness.
10:23I mean, more people, I guess more computers to the degree that they are conscious. And we want to pass through one of the great filters that, you know, you've fully with the Fermi Paradox and the great filter. No. Okay, so Enrico Fermi, great, amazing physicist, posed a very simple question.
10:51He said, we're the aliens because we've seen no sign of them. Now, a lot of people think they've seen signs of aliens. I have seen no evidence whatsoever of aliens. So that's a troubling question. Why not? So one of the answers, perhaps the most likely answer, is that we're at the tiny candle of consciousness
11:15that constitutes humanity is all that there is. in this vast doctors. And I think we should assume that that is the case until we actually have evidence to the contrary. And moreover, human consciousness only arose after 4 and 1 half billion years. It took a long time. And if it had taken even 10% longer, it probably would not have evolved because the sun is expanding.
11:45As the sun expands, it'll start heating Earth. and Earth will, the oceans will evaporate, will become more like Venus, inhospitable to life. So I think we may have made, we may have achieved consciousness, or consciousness that's capable of developing technology just in time. I find it remarkable that we are at this point in history where we're able for the first time to go beyond Earth,
12:16to send people, we said people to the moon in the early 70s, but not, essence, not gone back. But with the Starship rocket that SpaceX is developing, we had two test flights, we'll have many more this year, that that vehicle is designed to make life multi-planetary. It's the first vehicle that I just gave
12:37them during that, a permanent base on the moon and I said, yeah, Mars. So I think we Everyone want to get that done as soon as possible. The window of opportunity to make life multi-planetary and secure the future of consciousness may be open for a long time or may be open for a short time.
12:59I think it will be wise to, not assume that it will be open for a long time. So, when we act now, to act now to make life multi-planetary. And one of the things that's fascinating about your saying is that it assumes an innate level of belief and love for human beings. Yes. I love humanity.
13:18So why? I mean, it's a weird question, but I mean, really kind of why. I mean, we're not that great. We have amazing, particularly. We can be angels, we can be devils. Obviously, we have the capacity for all of the things in between. What do you think makes, aside from just the qualities that theoretically could be duplicated by AI in the very near future?
13:38What makes human beings unique and worthwhile? I'll tell you something. I think that maybe resonates. I think actually everyone loves humanity. Now, they may not love everyone in humanity. But you say, how many people want to be in solitary confinement? OK. How many people want to live alone in a forest by themselves?
14:02Almost no human beings want to do that. So actually, in reality, all humans love humanity and want to be part of humanity, with the rare exception of someone who's got severe psychological issues. So that's why solitary confinement is considered a terrible punishment in prison. Because even though other prisoners are probably not the finest examples of humans, you still
14:30want to hang out with them. So I think it's a natural thing. You know, as long as kids aren't taught to hate other people, I think the natural inclination is to love humanity. So I'm going to go back to some of the business conversation that I want to go back to the SpaceX of it.
14:52When it comes to business, what do you see as sort of the biggest obstacles to not only the success of your companies, but to success generally? because there seems to be this idea abroad that people can't duplicate the path. It basically used to be that people like you could succeed, but now it's totally finished
15:10and now you can't get ahead. America, the biggest change in that regard is for even more. There are new companies being formed all the time in the US. Well, what do you see as the obstacles to companies being successful increasingly in the West if there are obstacles to that? Well, I think excess regulation, you know, taxes do
15:34rash out every year, making a little difficult, a little harder every year as taxes rash out. But the regulatory creep is, I think, a massive danger. So laws and regulations are immortal. But the regulators and the lawmakers make new rules and regulations and laws and regulations every year.
15:55And so you have this, so every year you've got this sort of another layer of laws and regulations. I saw this getting to the point where everything's legal. You can't get anything done. Now, they say, well, how do they deal with it in the past? Well, the way they dealt with it in the past would there be a war.
16:13And the war would wash away the old rules and regulations. That's, we literally would take a war to change things. like Napoleon establishing the Napoleonic Code that overrode the old law systems, the loads in peasants, and for all that the bad that Napoleon did, I think he did more good, actually.
16:43So the evidence is in that, I think, maybe a third or half of all countries on Earth still run on the Napoleonic Code. So, and I would prefer to have some clean up process for laws and regulations that doesn't require a wall, that would be nice. I think that's something we need to institute, like basically garbage collection for laws
17:07and regulations. And one of the things that has been suggested, a book called the Sovereign Individual written in the late 90s, that basically suggested that we are entering the era of avoidance, that people are going to be able to be sovereigns. You talk about Savarnell, if earlier you're not king of something, but you are the head of your companies.
17:25And so in the future, people will just be able to move money around, locate where the regulations are the friendliest. And so the United States right now thinks that we have the advantage because we historically have. But that doesn't mean that that's how it's going to go in the future.
17:36You're seeing more and more companies, for example, going to Singapore or going elsewhere just to move away from those regulations. So avoidance, which wasn't a strategy in 17th century France, where you're going to go exactly, is now a very real set of possibilities for a lot of entrepreneurs.
17:51Yeah. Well, and regulation in the US, various by state as well. California is the most regulated state. So increasingly people seek to do things outside of California or outside of New York. Those are the two most heavily regulated states. So given all those things, do you think that there's going to be a backlash to regulation in America?
18:11Or do you think that the West is sort of America being a stand-in for that? sliding into this morass of regulation based on, honestly, it looks like to a certain extent jealousy, it looks like trying to tear down success in the name of fairness, as opposed to. I mean, it's here for the things.
18:28There's regulation, it's where she intended to serve the public good. You know, rules against one thing or another. Like the car industry gets, you know, has lots of rules in how to make a car. I mean, there'll be like piles of books in this room to cover just the US regulations, what is required to build a car.
18:53Those are, at least ostensibly, they're aimed for safety. But in terms of other regulations, yeah, I think generally we wanna be averse to any regulation that is anti-meritocratic. The point of fighting racism, sexism, and whatnot was not to replace it with another form of racism and sexism,
19:22but to get rid of racism and get rid of sexism, not to change it to another form. DEI is fundamentally racist and sexist. So I want to get back to the space conversation. That's fascinating. And I was telling you before we started this, my son is like the biggest SpaceX fan that's possible to be, because what you're doing is inspiring on a truly galactic level.
19:44So when we talk about getting to Mars, how realistic do you think that is? There's a book that just came out, reviewed in the Wall Street Journal, talking about all of the various obstacles to human beings actually living on Mars. Like we live in a pretty propitious place. I mean, the world is a pretty wonderful planet.
20:01And so, yeah, exactly. So what are the biggest obstacles? And what do you think the timeline is in terms of having a robust presence on other planets? Well, we're hoping to have the first humans on the moon in less than five years. Mars may be a little longer than five years. I'd be surprised if we don't have humans on Mars within ten years.
20:28Wow. Yeah. And then we're going to aim to have a lot of humans and build a city on Mars in a base on the moon. And how do we mobilize that many resources there that quickly? That's a lot of resources necessary. It's not like you can draw from the environment. A lot of resources.
20:44And I should say that in order to pass the familiar grateful to being a multi-pants species, the second planet has to be self-sustaining. So as it is being that if the resupply ships stop from Earth, stop coming for any reason whatsoever, could be mundane or serious, will Mars die out or not?
21:10So Mars has to be completely self-sufficient in order to pass the familiar gratefuls. That particular gratefuls I'm talking about is if something clams has happened to one planet is humanity gone or not. And how long will it take for that to be self-sustaining? When you say in 10 years people will be on Mars?
21:32like 40, 40 years years. So one of the things I think that captures the imagination about what you're doing is that you're speaking in ambitious terms that people have not spoken in the West for solidly half a century. Yeah, I mean really. It's an amazing thing. I guess I say it's often I can't do that.
21:47I mean, you say this stuff because it's you all the time. But the reality is that the last time people were talking about within a decade, we're going to have a man on the moon was JFK talking at the beginning of the 1960s. Yeah, it's like two hours. And it's been full on half a century since anybody talked like this and I think people find it shocking and I think maybe we should look at the other side of that to both sides.
22:05One, what makes you different? And two, why do you think that dream went away? Why do you think it was that for half a century after we put a man on the moon, we just kind of receded back into whatever the hell was else going on? Yeah, that's a long story. But the follow up to the shuttle, to the Saturn V was the space shuttle.
22:30Space shuttle could only go to the low Earth orbit. But the aspiration was to make it reusable. But the, unfortunately, did not succeed in that goal. The space shuttle was so difficult to refurb that it ended up costing as much as the Saturn V. And then the main, the primary structure of the space shuttle orbit is in some big orange tank.
22:55It's actually the primary airframe because it takes the load from the orbiter, the airplane-looking thing, and the side boosters. So you lose that every time. The side boosters landing the ocean and they're solid rocket boosters so that they have to get your back to the factory to get solid propellant loaded in.
23:16It got a long story short. The cost per flight of the shuttle ended up being roughly the same as a Saturn V expandable. So, but the shuttle had about a quarter of the payload to orbit and could not reach the moon. So, you know, so noble ideas at the start, but ultimately it was not a good design.
23:40So, and then the shuttle retired obviously and then we had nothing. That's not a good curve, going from the moon to low orbit to nothing. That does not extrapolate to being a multi-planet species. So that's why I started SpaceX, is to try to reverse that trend and get us back on to
24:07doing exciting things in space again. Things that make people excited to get up in the morning and say yes, the humanity is going to do some amazing thing in space. And one of the things that's so impressive about SpaceX is not just the aspiration, but the fact that it's a successful business and that you realize very early on, that it's
24:26not enough to have the aspiration. I mean, it was a government, put a person on the moon, that that's not the same thing as actually being able to build, you said, self-sustaining with regard to life on Mars, but a self-sustaining business that actually has the capacity and a profit-driven model to
24:39do something like that, to project. Yeah. I mean, to be clear, at the start of SpaceX, I gave us less than 10% chance of success. I thought we'd probably die. But I think if something is important enough, it's worth doing, even if you think it's going to fail. And we almost did fail.
24:55The first three launches, Vassmall rocket, failed, only the fourth one launched, succeeded. And if we, if that fourth one had failed, we would be dead. So it's close. At this point, you know, I'm not going to worry. SpaceX is quite prosperous. SpaceX did about 80% of all payload to over the last year of Earth.
25:17about 12% and the rest of world at 8%. So in this year, if things go well, SpaceX will do 90% of all payload to Earth. And then as Starship really takes off, SpaceX will be doing at least based on what other companies are currently doing, which is around three, four, hundred tons to orbit.
25:38SpaceX ultimately will be doing several hundred thousand tons to orbit, maybe a million tons to orbit. It's amazing. what you mentioned there, that is a sort of skin of the teeth thing. I mean that's been true in a lot of companies that you've worked with. I mean that was true in Tesla also, that it was a real skin of the teeth thing. Yeah. And so maybe you
25:56can talk a little bit about what does that feel like? I mean as a CEO, yeah, you must do you enjoy the risk? Do you enjoy that stressful? Well, I don't see grisps for risks, say. Tesla had many close calls with death. The natural state of a car company, America, is dead. I mean, the only two car companies that have not gone bankrupt are Ford and Tesla.
26:21GM and Chrysler were in bankrupt until 2009. There have been hundreds of car bankruptcies before. So it's one of those things where, like I said, the natural state of a car company is dead. So you have to keep pulling rabbits out of a hat to not be dead. Do you think that your personality is suited to that, and that's why you're successful at this, that you think that you're unique to the companies you pick, that you're pulling rabbits out of hats?
26:44Is it that every company is pulling rabbits out of hats? Pull so many rabbits out of hats, like an ark or rabbit. It's funny to be there. I mean, I'm good at solving technology problems. So and rockets and cars, both technology problems, a very strong team. They work with me. And yeah, so far so good.
27:06Now onto X, which is its own set of issues and difficulties. You come in, and for many of us, it was like you're coming into save free speech. And it was, I think, really a signal moment, because it is very clear that there is a sensorious hand that's been placed on all of these tech companies.
27:24And you came in and you said, we're going to open this place up, and you definitely did. And the blowback has been absolutely wild. I mean, really tremendous. And pretty clearly coincident with the amount of mainstream media hatred of you. You went from being Golden Boy, Time Magazine, Newsweek,
27:43we all love you, everyone loves you. Where's that one go? SNL, right, like now if SNL had you on, there might be a riot in the street. Because apparently, by opening up free speech, you've... I mean, I think there's like a small section of the sort of elite media that hate me. But if I go down the street, people are really super friendly.
28:03So I think the average citizen is a fan, or suddenly doesn't hate me. I mean, I am the most involved account, most interactive account in social media by far. So I think technically there's people on Instagram with more followers, but in terms of interactions. I have the most interacted with social media accounts on Earth.
28:31Recently passed 169 million followers. So can 169 million people be wrong? I know we'll find out in the next election cycle. But when you feel that, do you think that that was a reaction to the fact that you were basically saying the thing you're not supposed to say, which is that the sources of information that people are receiving are in fact siphoned off and censored.
28:56Yeah, exactly. It was actually amazing to me how much the legacy media walks in lockstep. There's nobody breaks ranks. And now we have x that breaks ranks, and it doesn't just go with whatever the approved narrative is. I think for many in the public, they don't quite realize just how much the deception is really going on with the media.
29:29The biggest deception is the choice of narrative, because they can write a story about this, or write a story about that. And only a few stories can go on the front page. So you're deciding essentially what people should pay attention to. So instead of it being something that, what people pay attention to being what people actually care about, it's actually what a handful of editors care about.
29:52They're telling the people what to pay attention to. So the deception by choice of narrative is a big thing. So that's why I really want the narratives to bubble up organically from the people in the case of the ex-system, which they do. And people should be allowed to say things that are within the law.
30:16If the law isn't good enough, then great, we'll talk to your elected representative and have passed law to change that. But otherwise, we need to stick to hold true to the Constitution and the laws and allow people to say things, even if we don't like what they say. In fact, that's obviously the true test for free speech is that someone says something you don't like, because otherwise it's obviously not free speech.
30:42What do you think? Is the biggest thing you can do? You're going to crash me all the time on the X platform, like whatever. Yeah, and just crash me on the X platform, what's the wrong one? So what do you think is the biggest untold narrative, the thing that the media have been missing for years and years or suppressing for years and years?
30:58Well, there's a few things, but I've generally tried to say to increase the so-called overtune window of what can be discussed, what is it okay to discuss without being ostracized? Certainly attacking DEI would have been ostracized before and not anymore. And, you know, anything that sort of says sort of,
31:29or that the media ignores, the public can then, you know, raise it on the X platform and make that an actual topic of discussion. So, I mean, you probably think of it, can think of a few reasons, or a few reasons. Oh, I mean, obviously one of the big ones when you were first buying X was the unwillingness to say that men exist and women exist as actual biological categories.
31:55Oh, yeah. And that one came up a lot. You could get suspended for that. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. You couldn't even debate the subject without getting suspended. That was a huge one. There are a bunch of no-no's that you just weren't allowed to do. And I think that a lot of people are grateful for the broadening of the overton window.
32:13That does, as a person who's trying to do good in the world, one of the things that I've always said about people who are in charge of these tech platforms is that it's very difficult to be that job because there is obviously something that's outside the over-10 window where you say like it's my platform, I just don't want this on the platform. How do you
32:34decide that? I mean to a certain extent it is a cotty under a tree basically saying I just, you know, this is too much for me, I know when I see it kind of definition. But we're trying to be as objective as possible. Is something breaking the law or most likely likely breaking the, we don't get judged the same for sure, but this was being said, seemed
32:56to be illegal. Like someone saying they're going to murder somebody, I think, threats of murder are illegal, for sure. And, you know, so that would result in a suspension. And
33:13Then there's a separate thing which is something either sort of potentially pornographic or not safe for advertisers. Meaning the topic is too contentious to expect that advertisers will advertise with that account. You take like Dom Deluca as an example recently where he says some pretty edgy stuff.
33:42And that's OK, but just as he has the right to say edgy stuff, some of which is untrue and he gets community known at all the time. But advertisers also have the right to not advertise on Don Deluca's posts. So it's like his freedom to say we want, but he can't coerce advertisers to advertise.
34:12So when you look at the future of X, you've talked about X being kind of an everything company. What does that actually look like? I just mean, all the things that you would want to use online. In China has WeChat, which is, you kind of live on your WeChat in China. So you buy things on WeChat, you post,
34:35you know, if text, audio, video to various feeds. Yeah, payments, it's sort of like everything. So I want to try to have an app that at least allows you to do everything on X. You don't have to, but if you want to, you can. So I mean, all these... Well, I think what PayPal should have been basically.
35:01So you have three massive and growing companies. How do you balance all that? I mean, you also have a ton of kids. I mean, you make me look like I'm childless and by the number of children that you have, how do you balance all of those life demands? Well, my older boys are in college and high school, so they're, you know, they don't want
35:22much of my time because they're like, you know, 17, 19. Yeah, sorry, a three and a half year old and you're carrying them around. Yeah, he loves hanging with me. So I bring X round, yeah, I try to spend as much time as possible, I guess. So what is the day in the life like? Is it just different every single day?
35:40It's different for every single day. Yeah. I mean, I do a lot of engineering meetings and design meetings. So when I head to Tesla, Palo Alto later tomorrow, I'll be going through engineering design reviews of optimists and your vehicle programs of our Tesla AI for self-driving, Wednesday will be a bunch of product meetings
36:11on software, the X platform, so improving audio visual calling. So you can not just DM, but you can actually do call voice and video calls. And then also do group voice and video calls. Obviously, we want to introduce payments later this year when we get the approvals. Is it the engineering part of it that excites you the most?
36:39Which part of these things? I'm a product guy, so I developed technology products. That's what I do. So you're known as you can be a demanding boss, so the rumor goes. So I mean, I have expectations. Yeah, that's how I mean. So what do you think being a good boss should look like to people?
37:02How many employees do you have at your various companies at this point? Tesla's about 140,000, SpaceX, 15,000. Foreign companies I think 300, you're like about 300. X is around 1,300. So that's a lot of employees. So how do you think a boss ought to interact with employees? I mean, because obviously there's a balance between it's sort of Tommy LaSorta, the manager
37:31of the Dodgers, and once said that managing a baseball team was like holding a dove. You want to hold it tight enough that it doesn't get away, but not so tightly you squish it. So what do you think is the optimum employee management strategies for the budding entrepreneur out there?
37:45I don't know. I just leave with my team and we go around the table and talk about what everyone got done this past week and what they're planning to do next week, and then try to make some decisions about product design and direction or solve some particular technology problem. They're quite collegial, my meetings.
38:05They're not, you know, it's not me talking. I talk the least of the meetings. We're talking about information and limiting information flow, and obviously you and I I was just at Auschwitz today, which is a heavy experience. And one of the things that we were learning about and talking
38:23about was how limited flow of information allows for atrocities to happen. What was your takeaway? Exactly. Essentially, yeah, when the Germans came in, the first thing they did was shut down all the press. So everything was heavily censored. So you can say anything unless it was pre-rept by the government.
38:45So I think really, free speech is the bedrock of democracy. And free speech is what allows atrocities to be called out and for people to be aware of them. That's why the Germans wanted to shut down the price immediately. So in a way, I think we should do everything we can to preserve free speech.
39:12And when we lose free speech, I think we lose democracy. One of the other things we were talking about earlier to touch back on it was the DEI of it. And one of the things that you and I had been discussing a little bit offline is the fact that DEI effectively is a conspiracy theory in which there is a cadre of powerful people who are at the top and they control everything else that's happening.
39:32And because those powerful people are at the top, they are exploiting everybody else and they have to be taken down more than one peg. And that conspiracy theory matches very, aligned very closely with anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. I think the idea is very extremely anti-Semitic.
39:48That's cool. So yeah, absolutely. And it's just generally anti-minute meritocratic, which I think is very dangerous. You want to have a society where you succeed based on your skills and hard work. That's it. And it doesn't matter about your race, gender, creed, religion, nothing.
40:16Just are you good at your job? Do you work hard? Do you have high integrity? Nothing more. That's it. Stop there. And it seems as though, in our society right now, there's an objection to that. But that objection, it seems to me, can only be sustained. If you are tacitly acknowledging that you will not succeed in the meritocracy, the people who are pushing this the hardest.
40:39Yeah, it's patronizing, frankly. Yeah, I mean, it's essentially making the argument, I'm not succeeding. The reason I'm not succeeding is because no one can succeed. And so it's an argument, to a certain extent, of the unsuccessful, or people who feel as though they are, they deserve more.
40:54And one of the things that occurs to me is that I'm not sure that anybody, quote unquote, deserves anything other than what your hard work and innovation bring you in life. I think DEI also, for those who were promoted based on their skills in merit and hard work, It undermines the credibility of their promotion or their status.
41:14Was it real or was it the EI? You know, and it takes away the respect that they deserve. One of the things about meritocracy that I think people forget is that it's the only system ever devised that has positive externalities. Yeah. Any other sort of system that you create is going to have negative externalities because you're literally just cronying with X group and whatever that group is, that group is going
41:36to get the benefits. And if you're not part of that group, then you get screwed. And meritocracy is the idea that the people who are going to succeed are people who innately are capable of creating for everyone else. I mean, you mentioned earlier how many employees you have. And people will talk about your level of personal wealth.
41:51But that level of personal wealth is largely stock holding. And that stock is encompassing. Yes, it was entirely stock. Yeah, exactly. I mean, it's like you're sitting on a giant wad of cash somewhere. I mean, you are, but not like dad. Yeah. It's just when I created the companies, I felt that it was important.
42:04Now, in my first company, I didn't have any money for my first internet company. I just had a hundred thousand dollars in student debt. But for those companies, it was the very early days that internet calls up to. But for old companies subsequently, I basically doubled down. I took the money from Zip2, invested it in X.com PayPal, and then took the PayPal money,
42:29invested that in creating Tesla and SpaceX. Because I didn't feel right that I should ask investors to invest if I was not prepared to invest my own money. I think the whole other people's money thing is not right. You wanna have skin in the game and put your capital where the capital of the company you're creating there with investors capital.
42:55And as a result of that, I own a lot of shares in the company. And the better the company does, the more valuable the shares are. But that's because the pie has grown. And so you have to say, what's at the root of a lot of the negativity is an axiomatic flaw that the pie is static, that it's a zero sum game.
43:20That if someone else succeeds, it's because they took more than their fair share of this fixed pie. but it's not a fixed buy. Obviously, the, there's a lot of, now I want some pie. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go. Pie. But obviously the economic pie has grown considerably from what it was in the past.
43:48The output of goods and services, the productivity per person dramatically greater than it has been in the past. So when you create a new company and you will create new products and services, you're growing the bundle, as they say, Pi again, of you're growing the amount of goods and services available to people.
44:16So you've not taken anything away from anyone. you've created something new, and you've given people new products and services they didn't have before. You know, like we wouldn't use to have an iPhone, we wouldn't use to have computers, we wouldn't use to have cars or be able to fly in airplanes.
44:35We wouldn't use to have many of the life-saving medicines that we have today, these are all new things. The pie is going tremendously. This is one of the, I think this is the fundamental distinction between innovators and business people and people in the free market and the political class.
44:48the political class operates almost solely on the basis that the pie is fixed. Because if the pie is fixed, then the way that you get elected is by promising more of that pie to such and such a person. Or you promise that by seizing money from the private sector, you're personally going to grow the pie.
45:03And it seems to me that the first mark of a politician you shouldn't listen to is I can fix all of your problems. And that basically rules out in your way everybody. Because it seems like everyone in the political class is into the I can fix all of your problems. When it seems like what I actually need is people who are entrepreneurial and innovative to solve this problem in front of us, maybe so that we can then move on to the next problem that's in front of them.
45:24Yeah. Basically, the reality is that the government is really just a corporation in the limit. Government is the ultimate corporation. It's not different from a corporation. It's just the ultimate corporation. And it's a corporation that is a monopoly. And also, it can't go bankrupt unless the country goes
45:45bankrupt and has monopoly on violence. So how much more do you want to give to the world's biggest corporation that has monopoly on violence? Probably not, probably less. And I mean, if you look at countries like East and West Germany or North and South Korea, cases where there's just an arbitrary line that's been drawn, that could use the one country, arbitrary line is drawn because of a war.
46:15What is the productivity difference for one to the other? West Germany had a productivity five times greater than the East Germany. And it's not like West Germany was just the sort of bastion of capitalism. They're like half socialist. So even with, so what that means, if they have socialist and the other side is 100% socialist or communist, then you really have something like a 10 to 1 difference in productivity if something is done by the government or done by the private sector.
46:49That's why you, but I'm not someone who says abolish the government. I just say let's have the government do the least amount because the less the government does, the more the economy will prosper because anything done by the government, it's going to be five to 10 times less efficient.
47:04Like think of the DMV. I'm trying not to. Yes. If we're going to get out of DEI, what's the best way to get out of DEI? Well, I think DEI is starting to fade. First of all, DEI is actually illegal because it discriminates in the base of race, sex, sexual preference, and all those other things.
47:32That is actually illegal. So somehow, they managed to get this illegal thing in place. But now we're starting to see a large number of lawsuits saying, no, actually, the law says you cannot discriminate on the basis of sex, sexual identity, and race. So I think DI is on its last legs.
48:00It's going to be a root because it's illegal, actually. literally. So I know running out of time. So I wanted to I do want to ask you, you know, you've had such a fascinating light, but what is the if there was an experience that defined you like the the encapsulating experience that defined you as a person? What would what do you think that is? I don't know if there's one single experience that defined me. And philosophically I read a lot of books
48:26in philosophy, a lot of religious books, and I did have an existential crisis when I was about 12. And then Red hijack is the galaxy, which is really a book in philosophy that just guides this humor. And that gave me a new philosophy, which is to try to understand the meaning of life.
48:51And then if you take axiomatically that you want to understand the meaning of life, the nature of the universe, then in order to do that, you have to expand the scope. the scope and scale of consciousness, and get out there and explore the galaxy, and then you can better understand the meaning of life.
49:14It's funny that you and Thomas Aquinas and my monadies all come to this end sort of conclusion because the basic premise religiously for them was explore the universe, therefore you're exploring God, every exploration of the world around you is in essence an exploration of God's system and brings you closer to the divine.
49:29And you're getting there in sort of a backwards way, even if you don't know what I'm getting to, the divine per se. Right, I'm not just agreeing with those who believe in God. I'm saying that even if you do believe in God, let us go out there and explore God's wondrous creation.
自由市场或资本主义的根本是唯才是举。它让最好的产品或服务胜出,而最好的产品或服务将由最努力、最有才华的团队做出,这就是资本主义经济中产生伟大产品和服务的原因。
Fundamental to the free market or capitalism is meritocracy. It made the best product or service win, and the best product or service will be made by the team that works the hardest, as the most talented, and that is what results in great products and services in a capitalist economy.
建墙的不是西柏林。
It wasn't West Berlin that built the wall.
我确实认为,在积极的 AI 未来里,商品和服务不会短缺。所以那不会是全民基本收入,而会是全民高收入。
I do think in a positive AI future that there will be no shortage of goods and services. So it won't be universal basic income, it'll be universal high income.
让生命成为多行星物种、确保意识未来的机会窗口,可能长时间敞开,也可能只敞开很短时间。我认为,明智的做法是不要假定它会长时间敞开。
The window of opportunity to make life multi-planetary and secure the future of consciousness may be open for a long time or may be open for a short time. I think it will be wise to, not assume that it will be open for a long time.
反对种族主义、性别歧视之类的东西,目的不是用另一种形式的种族主义和性别歧视取而代之,而是消除种族主义、消除性别歧视,不是把它换成另一种形式。DEI 本质上是种族主义和性别歧视的。
The point of fighting racism, sexism, and whatnot was not to replace it with another form of racism and sexism, but to get rid of racism and get rid of sexism, not to change it to another form. DEI is fundamentally racist and sexist.
我们希望在不到五年内让首批人类登上月球。火星可能比五年稍晚一些。如果十年内我们没有把人类送上火星,我会感到意外。
Well, we're hoping to have the first humans on the moon in less than five years. Mars may be a little longer than five years. I'd be surprised if we don't have humans on Mars within ten years.
我是说,说清楚一点,在 SpaceX 起步时,我给我们的成功概率不到 10%。我以为我们很可能会死掉。但我认为,如果一件事足够重要,就值得去做,即使你认为它会失败。
I mean, to be clear, at the start of SpaceX, I gave us less than 10% chance of success. I thought we'd probably die. But I think if something is important enough, it's worth doing, even if you think it's going to fail.
Tesla 有很多次差点死掉。在美国,汽车公司的自然状态就是死亡。我的意思是,仅有的两家没有破产的汽车公司是 Ford 和 Tesla。
Tesla had many close calls with death. The natural state of a car company, America, is dead. I mean, the only two car companies that have not gone bankrupt are Ford and Tesla.
事实上,言论自由的真正考验显然就是有人说了你不喜欢的话,因为否则那显然就不是言论自由。
In fact, that's obviously the true test for free speech is that someone says something you don't like, because otherwise it's obviously not free speech.
政治阶层几乎完全基于一个前提运作:蛋糕是固定的。因为如果蛋糕是固定的,那么你当选的方式就是承诺把更多蛋糕分给某某人。
the political class operates almost solely on the basis that the pie is fixed. Because if the pie is fixed, then the way that you get elected is by promising more of that pie to such and such a person.
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