法里德·扎卡利亚CNN专访马斯克

0:01Elon Musk is a billionaire, an inventor, a scientist, a designer,

0:05and one of the world's most innovative minds.

0:08He runs two companies that are trying to disrupt major industries

0:12that have been doing things the same way for decades.

0:15Aerospace with SpaceX and automobiles with Tesla.

0:22Tesla is making luxury all-electric cars,

0:25cars that have had a bit of controversy of late.

0:29Currently, SpaceX is essentially an intergalactic trucking company,

0:34taking loads back and forth from the International Space Station

0:38and bringing satellites up to orbit.

0:40In the future, it hopes to carry humans too.

0:44We met on a balcony overlooking the SpaceX factory floor.

0:48It was buzzing, literally and figuratively.

0:51The workers were preparing for an important launch on Monday.

0:55Elon Musk, pleasure to have you on.

0:59Thanks for having me.

1:00So this is the dragon that goes up in this space and is going to go up on Monday, correct?

1:06Yeah, that's our dragon spacecraft of version one, which is capable of taking cargo to and from the space station,

1:11including biological cargo, like fish and mice and that kind of thing.

1:15So when do when do human beings start going up and if you think?

1:19So we expect to complete version two of dragon which will have astronaut transport capability in about two years.

1:25And most of what you do now is send satellites up into space.

1:30That's how you pay the bills.

1:31Exactly.

1:32But you want to do something much more ambitious with space apps.

1:36Yeah.

1:37I mean, the long-term aspiration is

1:38to develop the technologies necessary to transport

1:42a large number of people in Chicago to Mars

1:46in order to create a self-sustaining civilization there.

1:49And that's really why I started the company,

1:50was because it seemed to create the possibility

1:54for life on other planets?

1:56Yeah, exactly.

1:59I mean, it sort of started off when I was thinking

2:02about what to do after PayPal.

2:04And I'd always been interested in space,

2:06but I didn't think there was anything

2:07that an individual could do in space.

2:08I mean, it seemed like the province of large governments.

2:13But I sort of started looking into it,

2:15and I went to the NASA website to find out

2:17when we're going to Mars.

2:19It seems like, obviously,

2:21that is the next thing out of the moon.

2:22And I couldn't find anything.

2:26So I was like, wow, this seems very strange.

2:29Initially I was under the impression that it was,

2:32that we'd lost the will to do that.

2:35And I later came to the conclusion that I was quite wrong

2:38about that, I think the United States in particular

2:41is a nation of explorers.

2:42So you decide you want to try and do this?

2:45And do you look at it as,

2:48why did you decide transport was the most important thing?

2:51I mean, I think we would regard living on Mars as,

2:54no, that's the relatively easier thing.

2:57Yes, yes, absolutely.

2:58So we could live on Mars just getting there is the problem.

3:01Yes, but getting, I mean, right now getting to Mars

3:04is impossible, so it's kind of doesn't matter

3:07what you do when you get there if you can't get there.

3:13So the first order of business is to figure out

3:15how to get there, and it needs to be in a way

3:19that enables large numbers of people and cargo.

3:23Can't just be like a handful of people

3:25because that's obviously not gonna create

3:27a self-sustaining civilization.

3:30And Apollo was an amazing, inspiring thing

3:32for all of humanity, but the last time we went to the moon

3:35was like 1973 or four, I believe.

3:37So we don't want to just have flags and footprints

3:40for, and then never go to Mars again.

3:43If we just have one mission,

3:45that will also be a super inspiring thing,

3:49but it's not gonna fundamentally change the future of humanity.

3:54So you have this Grasshopper rocket,

3:56which unlike most rockets, which can't, you know,

4:00which are not reusable,

4:01this one gently comes back down in a kind of vertical lamp.

4:05Yeah, absolutely.

4:07You can see the videos of this on the SpaceX website.

4:12The fundamental breakthrough,

4:13going back to the point of,

4:16that developing a Mars transportation system,

4:20it has to be affordable to go.

4:23Like it can't just be like billions of dollars per person

4:27to go to Mars, then you'd snow where you could establish

4:29a base on Mars at that cost.

4:32So we have to develop rockets that are rapidly

4:36and as close to completely reusable as possible.

4:41As an example, the Falcon 9 costs about $60 million

4:46It's sort of like a jet, but the cost of the propellant is only about $200,000.

4:54So it's just like you can imagine how expensive it would be if you had to buy a new plane every

4:58time you went somewhere.

4:59A very few people would fly.

5:01But refueling a plane is pretty easy.

5:03We once talked about airplane travel, and I asked you why it is that with all this technological

5:10improvement over the last 30 or 40 years, the one thing that doesn't seem to have improved,

5:14and it is in the domain of the private sector sort off.

5:17Is Jeff trouble, I mean if you're flying from New York to London,

5:21it takes about as long as it took 40 or 50 years ago.

5:23In fact, it takes long ago.

5:26It actually does take longer because,

5:28the 70s, my favorite sort of commercial airliner

5:33is the 747, because it actually goes quite fast.

5:36And it's actually incredible that that thing was,

5:39I mean the first iteration of it was designed in the 60s.

5:42I mean, since then I don't think we've exceeded the 747, which is nutty.

5:51I think, well, for the commercial airline or business, you essentially have a duopoly

5:57between Airbus and Boeing.

5:59And these big airplane programs are really long-term and they're quite expensive.

6:07And I think if you're in the senior management of one of those companies, it's a safer bet

6:12to take it to just aim for a little incremental improvement,

6:15then to try to aim for a radical improvement.

6:17Because generally, if you aim for a radical improvement

6:19and you're wrong, you'll get fired.

6:21Why don't SpaceX create the fastest jet plane in the world?

6:27We've got to focus on rockets.

6:29When do you think you'll be able to achieve

6:32the aspiration of SpaceX on actually moving people

6:35to a place like Mars?

6:37Well, I think we could probably send the first person

6:40in about 12 years.

6:42Wow.

6:43Will you be that person?

6:47Only if I'm confident that SpaceX will be fine if I die.

6:50That's... you know, if I was...

6:54maybe if I was confident that the mission would continue

6:57if I wasn't around, then I would do it.

7:02Elon Musk on his program to Mars.

7:04Lots more ahead from him, including his response

7:07to all the headlines about Tesla's cars catching fire.

7:11New technology should have a spotlight on it,

7:14but it should have a laser on it.

7:17Elon Musk says he doesn't get a lot of sleep these days. He's not only CEO and

7:23chief designer at SpaceX, he's also CEO and product architect at Tesla. Tesla

7:28produces luxury all-electric vehicles and the company's cars have been in the

7:33news after some Model S sedans caught fire. Earlier in the week but after our

7:39interview the National Highway Transportation Safety Board announced an

7:43investigation into two of the incidents. The board had previously given the

7:47more or less a five-star safety rating, it's highest.

7:50Listen in to more of my interview with Elon Musk.

7:55You've heard all the press about Tesla,

7:58so let me first give you a chance to get it off your chest.

8:01I was really like pistol whipped.

8:03Three cars gone on fire.

8:04What's your response?

8:06So the amount of national and international news headlines

8:12dedicated to three Tesla fires

8:16that caused no injury is greater than all of the gasoline

8:22fires that occurred in the United States.

8:26And with all the other cars.

8:27Yeah.

8:29Which from mid last year to today is about a quarter million

8:34gasoline car fires, which caused about 400 deaths,

8:37something like 1,200 serious injuries.

8:41Our three non-injurious fires got more national headlines

8:45been a quarter million deadly gasoline car fires.

8:50That's mad.

8:52What the heck is going on?

8:54When I realized like a new technology should,

8:56it should have a spotlight on it,

8:58but it shouldn't have a laser on it.

9:01So when you look at Tesla,

9:03the big concern many people have is scale.

9:06You're producing about 30,000 cars a year,

9:09but Toyota is producing.

9:10Oh yeah, we're, we're,

9:11we're millions.

9:12You're millions.

9:13So, yeah, it's like way too much attention.

9:15And your market cap is almost as high as some of these guccos.

9:19Well, yeah.

9:20It's got more than recent weeks.

9:22But yeah.

9:23Do you think it's crazy or do you think it's an appropriate indication of future growth?

9:28Yeah.

9:29I mean, what I've actually said on more than one occasion is that I thought our valuation

9:34was more than we had any right to deserve.

9:38That we would do our best to fulfill those value expectations.

9:42that I thought over time the value of Tesla would probably significantly exceed where it

9:51is today or even where it was at the relatively high point a few weeks ago.

9:57But it would be, I think silly for me to assert that Tesla is unequivocally worth, at one

10:03point we're like worth $22 billion and we'll have somewhere over $2 billion in sales this

10:09here. That is an enormous amount of credit for future execution.

10:14The heart of what interests you about Tesla, at least as I recall when we've talked, is

10:18that it's not a compromise. That a hybrid is something of a compromise between an internal

10:23combustion engine and a battery powered engine. And here you can do it cleanly. But batteries

10:29just aren't that powerful enough. And they don't seem to improve enough to imagine a

10:34a world powered by batteries, right?

10:38I certainly can see that.

10:40And in fact, my opinion is that all transportation

10:45with the ironic exception of rockets

10:47will be fully electric.

10:49Even planes.

10:50Yes, everything.

10:51Planes trains.

10:52By wind.

10:52Everything.

10:53It'll never be like a 100% conversion.

10:55Like, we still have some steam engines running around.

10:58And some people still ride horses.

11:02But it's a pretty tiny percentage.

11:03So I think it'll be the same with gasoline. I think in the future people will look back on the gasoline era

11:07The way we look back on the steam era today. So you're using battery technology your dear

11:13You're doing Tesla, which is an electric car you have solar panel

11:17You have an interest in business and solar panels. Yeah, do you think solar energy is the future? I think it's super obvious in the future

11:25absolutely in fact

11:27If you think about it, the world is almost entirely solar powered already in that we would

11:35be a frozen ice ball at about three or four degrees Kelvin, close to absolute zero without

11:41the sun.

11:42And the sun powers our entire system of precipitation, the ecosystem, apart from a tiny number of

11:51exceptions, almost all life is solar powered.

11:55All right, another great technology you've talked about that most people think of is out of a movie.

12:00Explain how it would work. Let's say it's New York or Boston or LA to San Francisco.

12:05I get into a tube and it's almost like air hockey.

12:11The way it works is I strap myself into a seat and...

12:14Well, it would actually feel maybe like the Space Mountain ride at Disney World.

12:22And the G-learning would actually be less than what people experience at Space Mountain.

12:26So if you can handle Space Mountain at Disneyland, you can handle the hyperloop.

12:32It'll feel super smooth because, as you mentioned, it would use air skis like an air hockey table,

12:39but with the air jets on the pod side as opposed to the tube side.

12:45So it would just be, I mean, it would be smoothest glass.

12:47Ten years from now, what would car travel look like in America?

12:52Ten years from now.

12:53I think there's going to be a lot of electric cars in the road.

12:57We're certainly faster than there are now.

13:00I think we'll be in the steep portion of the

13:04adoption of electric cars in ten years.

13:08You think hybrids are a transition that will fade away?

13:10Yeah, they're like sort of an amphibian.

13:14There was a role for amphibians when life was moving from the oceans to land, but it would

13:19in the end very few amphibians remain.

13:21It's a good point to your hand now.

13:23Thank you.

13:24Thank you.