马斯克透露：新 Tesla 车主不买 FSD

0:00I need to start off this video telling you a story about my coworker who recently bought a Tesla Model 3.

0:05So at the end of November my coworker bought a Model 3. Yes he knew the new one was coming but they had

0:10really good deals. He wanted to pick it up for the tax credit was gone and he asked me a lot of

0:14questions and what I like about talking to someone like this about their new Model 3 purchase is

0:20they are not like me and they're probably not like you watching this video who is someone that's

0:25kind of into Tesla. They're nerdy about it. They research everything. They know everything about every

0:29car, he is just a person who wanted a car for a good price with good features.

0:34And that's what he got.

0:35He's very happy with the vehicle.

0:37And yes, this clip is me sitting in the backseat of his car while he uses FSD on his 3 month

0:41free trial.

0:42And in this less than 20 minute drive I took with him, the car tried to turn us into

0:46oncoming traffic.

0:47So the initial impression from him and the software is probably not going to be great.

0:51So when I'm lucky enough to talk to a person like this that isn't so exposed to Tesla,

0:55I can learn a lot more about the cars.

0:57I've been driving Teslas for five years now.

0:59A lot of the people I know that drive Teslas

1:01have been driving them for a while.

1:03So we kind of get used to the features

1:04and used to the cars and all of that.

1:06I use this as an opportunity to ask him

1:09about full self driving and autopilot

1:11and of course other aspects of the car,

1:12but he gets the three months of free full self driving

1:15with his new purchase.

1:16And I was curious if he was really gonna use it,

1:18if he would enjoy it, if he wouldn't like it.

1:20He's an inquisitive guy, he's a smart guy

1:22and he does like tech, but he's not nerdy about it.

1:26He just wants to try things and see if he likes them and then kind of decides if he'll continue using them.

1:30So his initial impressions were basically, it's really neat, but it does really dangerous things that scare me.

1:37And so I don't really want to use it.

1:39And he doesn't really use it to this day.

1:42His free trial is almost up and I was asking him, hey, when you're free, I knew the answer, but I asked him anyway.

1:47When your free trial of FSD is up, are you going to buy it?

1:50Are you going to go through with the purchase?

1:52Do you think you want to like subscribe to it?

1:54to pay the 200 a month and he said absolutely not.

1:56There is no way.

1:58Actually, to start the conversation, I said,

2:00hey, do you still have FSD on your car?

2:01Because I didn't know if it had been three months yet.

2:03And he said, what's FSD?

2:05I laugh.

2:06And I asked him again, I was like, FSD, do you still have it?

2:09And then he guessed some other things

2:10that FSD might stand for until I finally just told him,

2:12no, I mean, full self-driving on your car, do you still have it?

2:14And he said, oh yeah, I have it for another month or so.

2:16And then I said, are you going to pay the 200 a month for it?

2:19And he said, no.

2:20So I asked him, why not?

2:21And of course, he said, it's way too expensive.

2:23He also said that he doesn't use it.

2:25He does turn it on sometimes again, you know,

2:27here and there just to try it out,

2:28but he said it for the most part,

2:29he just drives himself pretty much completely.

2:31So I asked him, what if it was 50 a month?

2:33And he thought about it.

2:35It wasn't an instant yes.

2:36I recently did a poll on X or asked a question on X

2:39and it got a lot of attention.

2:41I guess people are really interested

2:42in the price of FSD.

2:43And most of the replies there, again,

2:45X is probably a lot of, you know, nerdy Tesla people.

2:48We're like, oh yeah, I don't pay for it now,

2:49but at $50 a month, that's a no-brainer.

2:51Well, my coworker said, you know, he thought about it.

2:54He goes, yeah, 50 maybe I would pay for it.

2:56And he goes, I don't really drive that much.

2:58So I wouldn't really use it.

2:59And he said, but if I drove long distances a lot,

3:01I would definitely pay 50 a month for it.

3:03And then my response was, well, that's kind of funny

3:05because if you drove a lot of long distances,

3:07that's mostly gonna be highway.

3:08And in my opinion, autopilot gives you like 90%

3:11of what you need on the highway anyway compared to FSD.

3:14And so he kind of thought about it.

3:16And he goes, yeah, that's a good point.

3:17And he hasn't even tried standard autopilot yet.

3:19and he said that he needs to basically try that out

3:22and see if he wants to go forward with FSD,

3:24but he's 99% sure he doesn't want to pay all the money for it.

3:26Basically, the point of that story

3:28is to get across to you that that's probably

3:31the average person buying a Tesla,

3:33is that's a ton of money,

3:34especially when you're talking about a Tesla

3:37that's maybe $35 or $40,000 after tax credits

3:40and incentives and all these things,

3:41to then ask somebody to lump another $12,000 on top of that

3:46for the option of FSD,

3:47or to pay 200 a month on top of their car payment,

3:50that's probably only gonna be,

3:52only gonna be somewhere on five or 600,

3:55depending on interest rate and how much they put down.

3:57Maybe it could be 700 or something.

3:59You really want them to add another $200 per month

4:02on top of that.

4:04It's a big ask and people are not responding.

4:06So on Tesla's recent earnings call, Elon Musk said,

4:09that 400,000 people are using FSD,

4:11and that's the same number.

4:13That's the same number as the last earnings call,

4:14400,000 people.

4:16And so if that number is accurate,

4:18it means not a lot of people are buying FSD.

4:21Some people probably sold their cars and maybe lost FSD

4:25and the next person didn't pick it up

4:26and maybe a new person bought a Tesla and bought FSD.

4:29But overall, it seems the number of FSD users

4:32is not going up.

4:33I don't know if that's exactly a problem for Tesla,

4:34but it does tell us something

4:36about what the public thinks about FSD.

4:38The Model Y was the best selling car in 2023, officially,

4:41and even selling all of those Model Ys over the year,

4:44it seems that the use of FSD is not really going up.

4:47I do a lot of videos and content about FSD,

4:49or at least I did when we were waiting for version 12.

4:52And something I've noticed in the content,

4:54I do around FSD either on X or on YouTube.

4:57The sentiment seems to have changed quite a bit.

5:00Back in the day, two years ago or whatever,

5:02I'd post videos and of course you'd have some haters

5:04or some people saying like,

5:05oh, this is garbage, it'll never work correctly, blah, blah,

5:08blah, which is totally fine.

5:09I put the videos out so people can see what's happening

5:11and kind of make their own judgment calls.

5:13but lately it seems like a lot more

5:15of the comments are negative

5:16and in different ways than they used to be.

5:18So in the past, it would be, you know,

5:20there's no way this is ever gonna work.

5:21It's not gonna be a robo taxi,

5:22which in my opinion is a valid take.

5:25But then a lot of people would be like,

5:26oh, this is such a cool technology.

5:28I can't believe this is on customer cars.

5:30I can't believe, you know, you can purchase this

5:32and use it.

5:32It's anyone versus something like a WeMO,

5:34which is like there's only a few of them, et cetera.

5:36Well, now a lot of the sentiment I'm getting

5:39in comments and everything on my videos is like,

5:41what a waste of money.

5:42This is stupid, why would anyone want this?

5:44And it's people that own it,

5:45people that own the FSD are getting a bit frustrated

5:48with the lack of progress.

5:50And I think it really comes into your expectations

5:54when you are either purchasing the software

5:55or your history with the software.

5:57If you used FSD three years ago and it was total garbage

6:00and you're using it today and you think about that comparison,

6:03it's a lot easier to be like, man, this is amazing.

6:05I love this technology, et cetera.

6:07If you're somebody that's buying a Tesla today

6:09or you bought a Tesla in December of 2023

6:12and it's your first experience

6:13and you try that FSD for three months

6:15and you're driving down the road

6:17and it goes to swerve off the road.

6:19Yeah, you're probably gonna be like,

6:20what the heck is this garbage?

6:21Why did I pay for this

6:22or why would I pay for this

6:23if it's gonna do these dangerous things?

6:25So with this sentiment change

6:26that I'm noticing, I'm wondering what your thoughts are,

6:28especially if you actually own a Tesla and use FSD

6:31or are thinking about it, I suppose,

6:33what do you think of FSD lately?

6:34Because a lot of the problem in the sentiment,

6:37in my opinion, is Elon over the past few years telling us every year for five, six years now,

6:42oh, this year we're gonna have Robotech's. This year we're gonna have Robotech's. Now, for me,

6:46personally, I'm just like an optimistic person, but I'm also very realistic. So every time Elon said

6:51that, I was like, yeah, right. There's no way by the end of this year, you know, for multiple years,

6:56I've I've thought to myself and I've said it in videos and stuff, there's no way by the end of

6:59this year my car's gonna be driving itself. It's just not gonna happen. So the fact that that

7:03expectation wasn't met for me is kind of like, well, yeah, that's what I expected. So I don't mind

7:08as much and I love the progress and I do love what's actually on my car today. Although it's

7:12called FSD and it doesn't actually fully drive itself. What I have, I do enjoy. I'm also in a slightly

7:18different position because I make videos about it and those videos can make money. So, you know,

7:22it's something that I can monetize. Whereas if this was just something every day, I didn't make videos

7:27about it or didn't talk about it on social media and stuff, I might not care as much. I might not

7:31want to use FSD, I might not want to pay for it because it's not something I can use as a tool in

7:37another way. Another thing to think about with FSD adoption is think about people that are using

7:41their Teslas, me and you or new users or old users who have something like the auto wipers

7:47that were so garbage for what six months, I think we had these really awful auto wipers. Now people

7:53have been complaining about them for more than six months, but from my experience they were working

7:56really well until around six months ago and then some update just made them total garbage,

8:01They wouldn't wipe in the rain. They would wipe all the time when there was no precipitation.

8:05And it seems in the past few weeks they've actually fixed that with the, I think the holiday update did pretty much fix the auto wipers.

8:10So they seem to be working well for me again. Think of somebody who's thinking about spending all this money on software when their wipers don't even work.

8:16Do they really trust that a company's going to be able to make a car drive itself when the company can't even make the wipers wipe when there's something on the windshield?

8:25It's at least something to think about or the lack of park assist Tesla has said on their website for over a year now

8:31Yeah, you're getting Tesla vision and it can't park itself

8:34Yeah, and you can't use some and you can't use smart some in like our older cars, but but it's coming

8:37It's coming and how long can you really say that? How long can you leave up on the website for?

8:43$6,000 you get

8:44Park assist or I should say auto park they do have park assist now although they didn't before you get auto park

8:50summon and smart summon, but then when you go through with the purchase you get a little disclaimer saying like okay

8:54These don't actually work right now, but it's coming soon like what if you bought your car a year ago?

8:58It's still it's just leaves bad taste in people's mouth

9:01They're not gonna want to pay you more for additional software when what they already paid for what they already paid for isn't quite working yet on top of that

9:08I really think nitsa kind of screwed Tesla here a little bit with this latest recall thing and regulation now

9:15Now it was a voluntary recall and Tesla is working with NHTSA, but people are really annoyed

9:20by the NAGS.

9:21Now I recently made a video you should check out.

9:22What I was talking about for me the NAGS don't seem that different, but they are more aggressive

9:26on autopilot.

9:27The camera does watch your eyes on autopilot.

9:29I had a lot of feedback from you guys in the comments which was great.

9:32And it is a change that people are adapting to.

9:34Now still in my opinion, if you're sitting facing forward and you have a hand on the

9:39wheel, the car's not going to bug you.

9:41But other people, that's not their experience.

9:42I don't want to discount that.

9:43just in my experience, the car seems to work okay.

9:46It is a lot more sensitive though to you looking away

9:49and things like that.

9:50And so if people are using basic autopilot

9:51and getting yelled at all the time,

9:53and they're like, this is stupid, I don't even want to use it,

9:55again, they're not gonna pay for additional software.

9:57And I've seen that sentiment online a ton as well.

10:00People saying, I don't even use my autopilot anymore

10:02because it yells at me so much.

10:03I'll give you a couple tips real quick,

10:04either wear sunglasses because it changed the eye tracking

10:07to head tracking, which is a little more forgiving,

10:09or wear a hat so it can't see your eyes.

10:10And again, it changes it to head tracking.

10:12So if you do look down at your phone,

10:13even with sunglasses or a hat, it's still gonna yell at you,

10:16but it's a little more forgiving.

10:17So just so you know, without any of those things,

10:19I've had full drives where I drive for 20 minutes

10:21and I don't get nagged one time.

10:23So just throw that out there.

10:24Now, despite this, there is some good news for FSD

10:27in that number one, we have version 12 coming soon,

10:30whatever, like, does a slowly, weirdly rolling it out.

10:34It is coming eventually.

10:35It's just one of those things that's like,

10:36we're waiting forever, but it'll be here soon,

10:38I would guess within the next couple of weeks,

10:40it'll at least start rolling out to more people.

10:42And on top of that, the miles driven with FSD have increased.

10:46So Tesla did release that chart on the earnings call

10:49and miles are going up with FSD.

10:51So people are still using it.

10:53It's not that adoption has dropped off.

10:54It doesn't look like the graph is starting to flatten out

10:57or anything where miles aren't increasing as much.

10:59It does seem people are still using it at a consistent rate.

11:02So while maybe new people are not buying FSD,

11:05I really don't blame them for that,

11:07it seems the people that did buy it,

11:09they're still using it.

11:10and they continue to use it just as I do myself.

11:12I do use it for like 99% of my driving all the time,

11:15even though I haven't made an FSD video

11:16and I don't know, probably a month or something.

11:18I still use it every single day for almost all of my miles.

11:21And speaking of that, it is funny

11:22because when I was talking to my coworker,

11:24he said to me, so wait, wait, you're asking me

11:26all these questions, are you using it for all of your driving?

11:29And I said, yeah, I started to say yes,

11:31but the day that we were talking about this,

11:33there was a huge snowstorm that morning

11:35and it took me like well over an hour to get to work.

11:37And I had to be like, well, okay, today I didn't,

11:40because of the snow.

11:42Like normally yes, I use it for all of my driving.

11:45So I did have like an hour and a half of driving

11:47where I turned it on for just a couple of minutes,

11:49the whole time just to kind of test it out in the snow.

11:51But for the most part, that whole drive I did manually.

11:53And it's just so funny we were having that conversation

11:55that day and I had to kind of tell him like,

11:57yeah, I paid for it and yeah, okay, I guess I don't.

11:59I'm not using it, you know, like today at least.

12:01So I'm very curious about the future of FSD,

12:04especially because still to this day,

12:05I'm skeptical that the car in my garage

12:08with the current hardware that it has on it,

12:10my hardware for Tesla Model Y is capable

12:13of being a robo taxi.

12:15It's not gonna be, that car's not gonna be a robo taxi.

12:17I just don't think so.

12:18I also am very skeptical that it's gonna get to the point.

12:21Again, that vehicle, I think Tesla can do it eventually,

12:24but that vehicle in my garage is gonna get to a point

12:26where I could be sleeping and it's driving me around.

12:28I just, there's just something about the hardware setup

12:32and these years and years we've been testing this

12:35and Tesla keeps rewriting the software

12:36and redoing the software.

12:37that keeps me very skeptical.

12:40At the same time, I have very high hopes for version 12.

12:44I think we're gonna see something really magical,

12:46maybe not right out the gate, you know,

12:49when you get a new version,

12:50I think it might be a little goofy,

12:51especially with everything's different and blah, blah, blah,

12:53not trying to make excuses.

12:54I just really think that's how it's gonna be.

12:56But I do believe in, let's say, three,

12:59I'll give you a number.

13:00I don't usually like to give numbers

13:01because it's hard to do,

13:02but I would say within three to six months after

13:03version 12 FSD wide release,

13:06I think we're really gonna start to see some magic

13:09in that the car is gonna be incredibly, incredibly capable

13:13and taking us much farther distances without intervention

13:16than we thought was possible previously.

13:18And I would love to be wrong about my prediction

13:20about the car and my garage.