马斯克谈殖民银河系

0:00The Girogan experience. How much time before there's regular travel back and forth to Mars?

0:07Roughly. Like a real civilization on Mars.

0:15Well, I think it's going to take a while to build a real civilization.

0:23The real threshold that really matters is, for getting past the Great Filter,

0:32filter is do we have enough resources on Mars such that if the

0:40if the spaceships from Earth stop coming to survive, yeah. So I

0:46can only be just missing one little thing you'd be like, you're

0:49on a long sea voyage and the only thing you're missing is

0:51vitamin T. It's a lot good. It's not only a matter of time, you

0:57know, yeah, and then it's gonna be curtains. So you got to

1:00have all the things necessary to sustain civilization on Mars.

1:06And the reason that the shift from a stopcoming could be World

1:10War III or could be due to a slow decline of civilization.

1:15So civilization here on Earth could end with a bang or a wimper.

1:20Or natural disasters.

1:22Yeah, asteroid impacts.

1:23Yeah, that would be the bang category.

1:26But it could be like a whole series of things.

1:28Like, so what killed the dinosaurs?

1:29Well, it wasn't just one thing.

1:31It was like a whole bunch of things

1:33happened in a row.

1:34And while they could have taken any one of those things,

1:41they had like three things happen.

1:43And no dinosaurs.

1:45Which is kind of amazing that crocodiles are still here.

1:48Yeah.

1:48Those fuckers.

1:49Well, crocodiles live on a decayed meat.

1:56They love rotten meat.

1:58And so in any kind of disaster situation,

2:03there's a lot of dead creatures.

2:05And the crocodiles love it.

2:06So that's why they're around.

2:09The crocodiles and bugs and mushrooms.

2:12And shrews.

2:14Shrews, yeah.

2:15Which is why we're here.

2:16Yeah, exactly.

2:17Oh, great, great, great, great, great.

2:19Grandparents were shrews.

2:21What a strange thing to come from.

2:24So there's hope for all you rodents out there.

2:26Yeah.

2:27one day you can go to Mars. Just keep doing your homework.

2:31Absolutely.

2:31So so there'll be the you say the great filter. What did you mean by that?

2:38Um, well, so there's something called like the Fermi Paradox of like where are

2:45the aliens? Yeah. So where are the aliens? Um, and I think it was call

2:53that's saying that said, like, there either are a lot of aliens or none. And the, either

3:04they're equally terrifying. If there are a lot of aliens, well, I mean, the

3:11invasion ship slash, you know, bug infestation, just, you know, like, the

3:21Starship, tuber style?

3:22Well, yeah, it's like an anion civilization.

3:25Might just view us as like a bug infestation.

3:27Right.

3:28It's like, hey, we left that planet.

3:29It was fine.

3:29Now it's got a bunch of bugs.

3:30Just go fumigate it, you know?

3:32Like, we fumigate a house.

3:35That's certainly possible.

3:37And then, but if there are no aliens, well,

3:39could it be that all civilizations are just destroyed

3:42before they become interstellar?

3:45You know, so.

3:48And I want to be clear, like, to the best of my knowledge,

3:52there is no evidence for alien life on Earth.

3:55There's no evidence for alien life.

3:58There's no direct evidence for alien life.

4:01No, and if somebody says, oh, what about this alien

4:05for sighting or whatever?

4:09I'm like, listen, it's got to be at least as good as a 7-Eleven

4:12or ATM cam.

4:14OK?

4:15It's like if somebody's got at least like an iPhone one level camera like something, you know

4:21The problem with that is it's just too easy to fake things today, too

4:25Yeah, sure I look I've at least try hard and they're in faking are you familiar with Commander David Frabors

4:32account of the tic-tac

4:35UFO that he encountered off of the coast of San Diego

4:38go. Lex, you know, Lex, Lex Friedman. Yeah. Lex Friedman interviewed him on his podcast

4:44and I interviewed him as well. And if you ever get a chance to listen to Lex's conversation

4:49with him, it's really excellent. But this guy is a naval fighter pilot and talked about

4:54this thing that they tracked on radar that went from more than 60,000 feet above sea

4:58level to one foot and less than a second, shaped like a tic tac, no visible sign of propulsion,

5:06locked radar, actively jammed their tracking systems,

5:10and then went to their predetermined point

5:13that the fighter jet was supposed to scramble to,

5:17went to it 30 miles away in a couple of seconds.

5:22They have no idea how it did it,

5:24they don't know what it is.

5:25These guys that were working for the Navy,

5:29off the coast said they encountered them several times,

5:32they didn't know what they were,

5:33they didn't know what to do.

5:34to have just different photos or something. They do they have video of it. Okay. They have video of it. They have

5:40there's you ever see the New York Times article that came out in 2017 about this stuff?

5:46No. Yeah, there was a New York Times article in 2017 that was detailing this and there's a couple

5:52of there's a couple other different sightings that were very similar. They were trying to figure

5:56out what these things were and why and it was also in the COVID relief package that the CIA was supposed

6:03to release, yeah, the politicians are trying to figure out what all this shit is.

6:08And so they try to get them to release all the information they have within 180 days.

6:12Honestly, I think I would know if they're aliens.

6:16I would hope so.

6:17That's why I'm asking you.

6:18No, I be jumping on that.

6:21You should watch that conversation with Lex.

6:25Like, here's the thing.

6:26Do you think that they would want us to know?

6:30Or do you think they would just be observing and making sure we don't blow ourselves up?

6:34Would be a few of the real civilizations.

6:36I don't know man, they're real civilizations.

6:37They sure are subtle.

6:38I mean if they wanted us to know obviously they could just show up and walk down Main Street.

6:45You know, okay I'm an alien, check me out.

6:47He has my spaceship, I just land in the middle of Times Square.

6:50I'll be like, okay.

6:51Or hover over downtown LA.

6:53Yeah.

6:54Yeah.

6:55We were like, okay we believe you.

6:56So whatever they are very subtle very subtle the aliens

7:02How often do you think about it?

7:04I'm zero zero even though you're thinking about interplanetary travel you don't really think about aliens

7:10No, I mean if they show up. I'm like great. Okay. No, this isn't your information, but we

7:19What an interesting way of putting it. This is new information. Listen your information like where are you guys up till now?

7:26So anyway, listen, I'm, if I see some evidence for aliens, I'll be like, I'll be the first

7:35to be like, ah, aliens, you know.

7:37Right, then you'll investigate, but until then you think it's kind of a waste of time.

7:40Yeah.

7:41Yeah.

7:42It definitely seems like a waste of time.

7:43If nothing's happened so far, you think about all the people that have been researching

7:46aliens for their whole life and they have very little to show for it.

7:52Well, you know, there's other than cool stories.

7:55Yeah, I mean we have archaeologists going all over the world looking at things

8:01You know with us this the people like if we were to find something like let's say like a cube of titanium

8:07Just like a one inch cube of titanium see in the middle of the permit. I feel like aliens for sure

8:12There's no way they could have made a titanium back then. Mm-hmm. No, there's no way. They that's hard

8:19That's all one little didn't even need a computer like a computer would be like hey, well computers

8:23because they didn't have computers back then,

8:24so it must be aliens.

8:25But even just some advanced metallurgy, anything.

8:30Like, we can say anything like that.

8:33Right, nothing like that that we could point to

8:37that we can't do.

8:40Everything that we found archeologically

8:42is consistent with the time, the technology they had

8:46at that time.

8:46Archeologically, yes.

8:48So you're just talking about old stuff.

8:51Yeah, just throughout history, it's not like,

8:53like, like, a alien's visitor, there'd be something

8:56buried somewhere, I think.

8:59We haven't seen anything.

9:00So anyway, maybe they were aliens,

9:03but they're very subtle.

9:04If they're just very, they're being pretty shy.

9:07So far as we can tell, there's none.

9:12So Nor are we seeing signals from any other solar system

9:17or anything like that.

9:18So now, and the things that on a galactic timescale,

9:25even with sub-light travel, you could absolutely colonize

9:29the whole galaxy, even some of the neighboring galaxies.

9:33So if you gave, if you said a million years with current,

9:36with, and say there's no new physics,

9:40could you colonize the galaxy in a million years?

9:42Absolutely, the entire galaxy.

9:44So you would start with Mars, build bases on Mars,

9:46and use Mars to jump off to all these other planets, set up places there and over thousands

9:51of years easily.

9:52Yeah, kind of like, you know, from one solar system to the next and yeah.

9:58That, it seems like that's imperative.

10:02Like that has to happen if the human civilization is going to survive.

10:05Because our planet is just, we're too subject to natural disasters and our own folly and

10:11if the species is going to survive, we kind of have to escape.

10:14It's mostly about the species.

10:15I mean, there have been some real doozies of like, you know, massive meteors and super

10:22volcanoes and continents and we were all over the place and Earth's been a snowball and

10:27super hot.

10:29But if you read like the geological history of Earth, it's like very long and complicated.

10:37So and then there have been so many extinction events, not like just a few.

10:41Yeah, I mean the the Permian extinction event that was a real rough one where it's like well over 90% of

10:49all species

10:51died out and I didn't tell the whole story because a huge chunk of the remaining species were fungi and

10:59You know like sponges and stuff like that, you know, but like if you if are you are you a sponge?

11:06You probably don't okay. They're still around

11:09Are you a mushroom? Do you like being in the dark and feasting on dead, dead, dead,

11:15plant and animal matter? Okay. But if you're like a human, you're screwed.

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