播客

乔·罗根播客 #1470:马斯克

Joe Rogan Experience #1470 - Elon Musk

语音识别自动转录,可能有识别错误,人名与数字请以视频为准。 文稿来源:Rev.com (transcription humaine)。

0:22Yeah. Yeah, and he was born on May the fourth.

0:41First of all, my partner is the one that actually mostly came up with the name.

1:05Archangel 12, the precursor to the SR71.

1:16Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1:18The SR71 came from a CIA program called Archangel.

1:50Actually, I think it's better being older and having a kid. I appreciate it more. Yeah, babies are awesome.

2:13Yeah, little love bugs.

2:32Yeah. Great. Wonderful. It's great. But babies are awesome. Yeah, it's great. Yeah. Also, I've spent a lot of time on AI and neural nets and so you can sort of see the brain develop, which is ... An AI neural net is trying to simulate what a brain does, basically. You can sort of see it learning very quickly. You know, it's just wow.

3:07I'm talking about an actual baby.

3:41In a lot of ways. There's some ways that are different. An analogy that's often used is like we don't make a submarine swim like a fish, but we take the principles of hydrodynamics and apply them to the submarine.

4:10I mean, the essential elements of an AI neural net are really very similar to a human brain neural net. Yeah. It's having the multiple layers of neurons and you know, back propagation. All these things are what your brain does. You have a layer of neurons that goes through a series of intermediate steps to ultimately cognition and then it'll reverse those steps and go back and forth and go all over the place. It's interesting.

5:44I'm slightly sad about it, actually.

5:54I think possessions kind of weigh you down and they're kind of an attack vector. They'll say, "Hey, billionaire, you've got all this stuff." Well, now I don't have stuff now what are you going to do?

6:21No, I said like almost everything, so it's like ...

6:39I mean, what's the worst that could happen? I mean, you're fine.

6:59For sure. I mean not everyone, but for sure in recent years billionaire has become pejorative like that's a bad thing. Which I think doesn't make a lot of sense in most cases. If you basically organized a company ... How does this wealth arise? If you organize people in a better way to produce products and services that are better than what existed before and you have some ownership in that company then that essentially gives you the right to allocate more capital.

7:44There's a conflation of consumption and capital allocation. Take Warren Buffet, for example, and to be totally frank I'm not his biggest fan, but you know, he does like have full allocation and he reads a lot of annual reports of companies and all the accounting and it's pretty boring really. He's trying to figure out does Coke or Pepsi deserve more capital? I mean it's kind of a boring job if you ask me.

8:18It's still a thing that's important to figure out. Like, which is a company deserving of more or less capital. Should that company grow or expand? Is it making products and services that are better than others or worse? If a company is making compelling products and services, it should get more capital and if it's not, it should get less or go out of business.

9:06Yeah, for sure. I think it's really, I do think there, in the United States especially, there's an over allocation of talent in finance and law. Basically, too many smart people go into finance and law. This is both a compliment and a criticism. We should have, I think, fewer people doing law and fewer people doing finance and more people making stuff.

9:43Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Manufacturing used to be highly valued in the United States and these days it's not. It's often looked down upon, which I think is wrong.

10:10Yes. Somebody's got to do the real work.

10:47Yeah, I've been thinking about it for a while. You know, part of it is like I have a bunch of houses, but I don't spend a lot of time in most of them. That doesn't seem like a good use of assets. Somebody could probably be enjoying those houses and get better use of them me.

11:19Yeah, that's a requirement.

11:35It's a real quirky house, yeah.

11:44I mean, all the cabinets are like handmade and they're like odd shapes and there's like doors to nowhere and strange corridors and tunnels and odd paintings on the wall.

12:02It's very quirky. I did live in it briefly, yeah.

12:13Well, I had one house and the Gene Wilder house is right across the road from me from my main house. It was going to get sold and then torn down and turned into, you know, be a big construction zone for three years. I was like, whoa, I think I'll buy it and preserve the spirit of Gene Wilder and not have a giant construction zone. Then I started having some privacy issues where people would just come to my house and start climbing over the walls and stuff. I'm like, man ...

12:54Then I sort of bought some of the houses around my house and then I thought at one point, well you know, it'd be cool to build a house. I acquired some properties at the top of Somera Road, which has got a great view, and I was like, okay, well there's a bunch of sort of small older houses, they're going to get torn down, anyway. I was like, well, if I collect these little houses then I can build something, I don't know, artistic like a dream house type of thing.

13:36Yeah, definitely. Yeah. You got to have the dome that opens up with the stealth helicopter and that kind of thing, you know?

14:21Yeah, yeah, definitely. I mean, you can only do so many things.

14:52Well, I think I do have high productivity, but even with that there's still some opportunity to [inaudible 00:14:57] time and allocating time to building a house, even if it was a really great house, it still is not a good use of time relative to developing the rockets necessary to get us to Mars and helping solve sustainable energy. SpaceX and Tesla are by far, you know, the most amount of brain cycles. The Boring Company does not take, you know, it's like less than 1% of brain cycles. Then this neural link, which is, I don't know, maybe it's like 5% and then ...

15:50No, we're not testing on people yet, but I think it won't be too long. I think we may be able to implant a neural link in less than a year in a person I think.

16:20It's a very low potential for rejection. I mean, you can think of it like people put in heart monitors and things for epileptic seizures and deep brain stimulation obviously like artificial hips and knees and that kind of thing. The probability of, I mean, so it's well known what will cause rejection and what will not. It's definitely harder when you've got something that is sort of reading and writing neurons that's generating a current pulse and reading current pulses. That's a little harder than say a passive device, but it's still very doable. There are people who have primitive devices in their brains right now.

17:17Well, like deep brain stimulation, I think for Parkinson's, has really changed people's lives in a big way, which is kind of remarkable because it kind of like zaps your brain. It's like kicking the TV type of thing. You think like man, kicking the TV shouldn't work.

18:03Oh yeah, sure, sure.

18:18Well, for version one of the device, it would be it basically implanted in your skull. It would be flush with your skull, so you basically take out a chunk of skull, put the Neuralink device in there. You'd insert the electrode threads very carefully into the brain and then you stitch it up and you wouldn't even know that somebody has it. It can interface basically anywhere in your brain. It could be something that helps cure say eyesight, like returns your eyesight even if you've lost your optic nerve type of thing.

19:10Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, pretty much anything that it could, in principle, fix almost anything that is wrong with the brain. It could restore limb functionality, so if you've got an interface into the motor cortex and then an implant that's like a microcontroller and near muscle groups, you could then create sort of a neural shunt that restores somebody who is a quadriplegic to full functionality. Like they can walk around and be normal.

19:55Over time, yes.

19:58Like the, you know, $6 million man. Although these days that doesn't sound like much.

20:14Well, yeah, the device we're working on right now is about, it's about an inch in diameter. Your skull is pretty thick, by the way.

20:40A half inch. Half inch thick skull ish. Yeah, yeah, that's a fair bit of like ... We've got quite a coconut going on there.

20:55Yeah, you basically implant the device.

21:04Yeah, think like a smartwatch or something like that.

21:16No, but I'd like to.

21:33Yeah, and you replace that say one inch diameter piece of skull with the Neuralink device and that has a battery and a Bluetooth and an inductive charger. Then you also insert the electrodes. The electrodes are very carefully inserted with a robot that we developed. It's very carefully putting in the electrodes and avoiding any veins or arteries so it doesn't create trauma.

22:13Like tiny wires, basically.

22:19No, you literally put them where they're supposed to go.

22:23Yeah, you insert ...

22:27I mean, they usually go in like, depending on where it is, like two or three millimeters.

23:04Yeah, you can totally take it out.

23:16Yeah, I mean you could for sure, I mean, basically it's a generalized sort of thing for fixing any kind of brain injury in principle, or if you've got like severe epilepsy or something like that. It could just sort of stop the epilepsy from occurring. It could detect it in real time and then fire a counter pulse and stop the epilepsy. I mean, there's a whole range of brain injuries. Like if somebody gets a stroke, they could lose the ability to speak and that could also be fixed. If you've got like stroke damage or you lose say muscle control over part of your face or something like that. When you get older you tend to, if you've got like Alzheimer's or something like that, then you lose memory and this could help you with restoring your memory and that kind of thing.

24:35The thing is it's like a bunch of circuits and there's some circuits that are broken and we can fix those circuits. It's a substitute for those circuits.

25:03Yeah. I mean, there's still a lot of work to do. When I say we've got a shot at probably putting in a person within a year, that's exactly what I mean. I think we have a chance of putting it into one and having them be healthy and restoring some functionality that they've lost.

25:45I mean, ultimately if you want to go with full AI symbiosis, you'll probably want to do something like that.

26:32Yeah, I think this is one of the paths to think like what are ... Like AI is getting better and better. Now let's assume it's sort of like a benign AI scenario. Even in a benign scenario, we're kind of left behind. We're not along for the ride.

33:37Best case scenario, but 10 years is more like it.

34:37Save your brain state like a saved game in a video game.

34:46Well, hopefully a little better than that. But, yeah.

34:54From a [inaudible 00:34:54] perspective probably. But yeah, I mean you could save state and restore that state into a biological being if you wanted to in the future in principle, nothing from a physics standpoint that prevents us. Now, you'd be a little different, but then you're also a little different when you wake up in the morning from yesterday and you're a little different. In fact, if you say like you five years ago versus you today is quite a big difference.

35:35I mean the possibilities are endless.

36:19You could change what you think was your past.

36:23This whole thing right now could be a replayed memory.

36:37There's no way to assign a probability with accuracy here.

36:49Well, I don't have a Neuralink in my brain, so I'd say right now 0%, but at the point at which you do have a Neuralink, then it rises above 0%.

37:34It feels real doesn't it?

37:45Yeah. I'm sure, it should be disconcerting because if this is not real, what is? But, there's that old sort of thought experiment of like, how do you know you're not a brain in a vent? I mean now here's the thing. You are a brain in a vent, then that vat is your skull.

39:45Yeah.

39:58The one that just dragged the baby down the street pretty far?

40:05There's definitely some degree of consciousness there.

40:47Well, I hope consciousness propagates into the future and it gets more sophisticated and complex and that it understands the questions to ask about the universe.

41:41I mean, you don't always improve, but you can aspire to improve or you can aspire to be less wrong.

42:37Yeah. Sure. I think so.

43:32It's clever compression of a concept and a feeling.

43:38Yeah, absolutely.

43:55Yeah, I mean I hope the future is more fun and interesting and we're just trying to make it that way.

44:06We might lose a little, but hopefully we gain more than lose.

44:16It's not for sure. Yeah. I mean you look at civilization through the ages, most of them they rose and fell.

45:27No, I'm talking about like somebody, some cockeyed concept that happens right now.

45:46Well, when I'm talking about a mind virus, I'm talking about a concept that infects people's minds.

45:59Yeah. It's just wrongheaded idea that goes viral in an idea sense.

46:43Well, I mean it's the kind of thing where your productivity would improve, I don't know, dramatically, maybe by a factor of 10 with it. So you could definitely just, I don't know, take out a loan and do it and earn the money back real fast.

47:19Well, it's not a super huge concern. I mean there are huge differences in cognitive ability and resources already. You can think of a corporation as like a cybernetic collective that's far smarter than an individual. I couldn't personally build a whole rocket and the engines and launch it and everything.

48:49Super sentient to AI. Yeah, like beyond a level that's difficult to understand and impossible to understand probably.

49:13It's not a requirement. It's just if you want to be along for the ride then you need to do some kind of symbiosis. So the way your brain works right now, you've got kind of like the animal brain, reptile brain, kind of like the lymphic system basically. You've got the cortex. Now the brain purist will argue with this definition, but essentially you've got the primitive brain and you've got the sort of smart brain or the brain that's capable of planning and understanding concepts and difficult things that a monkey can't understand.

49:58Now your cortex is much, much smarter than your lymphic system. Nonetheless, they work together well. So I haven't met anyone who wants to delete their lymphic system or their cortex. People are quite happy having both. So you can think of this as being like the computer, the AI is like a third layer, a tertiary layer. So that could be symbiotic with the cortex. It'd be much smarter than the cortex, but you essentially have three layers and you actually have that right now.

50:33Your phone is capable of things and your computer is capable of things that your brain is definitely not. Storing terabytes of information perfectly, doing incredible calculations that we couldn't even come close to doing. You have that with your computer. It's just like I said, the data rate is slow, the connection is weak.

51:18I don't think, that's not how it would be. Like I said you already are symbiotic with AI or computers.

51:28Yeah, there's quite a bit of AI going on, artificial neural nets. Increasingly, neural nets are sort of taking over from regular programming more and more. So you are connected, if you use Google Voice or Alexa or one of those things, it's using a neural net to decode your speech and try understand what you were saying.

51:57If you're trying to do image recognition or improve the quality of photograph, the neural nets the best way to do that. So you are already sort of a cybernetic symbiote. Like I said, it's just a question of your data rate. The communication speed between your phone and your brain is slow.

52:35Yeah, if it works I'll do it.

52:49No, like I said, if somebody has got a serious brain injury and people that have very severe brain injuries and then you can fix those brain injuries. Then you prove out that it works and [inaudible 00:53:06] expand and make more and more brain injuries, solve more and more. At a certain age we all are going to get Alzheimer's or we're all going to get senile. Then moms forget the names of their kids and that kind of thing.

53:20It's like you said, okay, well this would allow you to remember your names of your kids and have a normal, a much more normal life where you were able to function much later in life. So I think essentially almost everyone would find a need at some point if you get old enough to use Neuralink. Then it's like, okay, so we can improve the functionality and improve the communication speed. So then you will not have to use your thumbs to communicate with the computer.

54:14Yeah, sure. I Think about it a lot. Like I said, this is not something that's going to sneak up on you. Getting FDA approval for this stuff is not overnight. I don't know, we probably have to be on version 10 or something before it would realistically be a human AI symbiote situation.

55:19Like when?

55:30Well, assuming civilization is still around, it's looking fragile right now. I think we could have, in 25 years probably I would think there could be a whole brain interface.

55:51Something pretty close to that.

56:00Almost all the neurons are connected to the sort of AI extension of yourself.

56:25Well, like I said, you already have a computer extension of yourself and your phone and computers and stuff. So, and now online it's like somebody dies, there's like an online ghost that they're still, their online stuff is still alive.

57:21What's that?

57:25I have no idea what you're talking about.

57:29Sure. Well, yeah. I mean this certainly has taken over the mind space of the world to a degree that is quite shocking.

58:45Yeah, I mean I kind of saw this whole thing play out in China before it played out in the US. So it's kind of like watching the same movie again, but in English. Yeah, I think the mortality rate is much less than what say the World Health Organization said it was. It's much, much less. It's like probably at least order of magnitude less.

59:33Yeah. I mean, you can look at the mortality statistics by age and whether they have comorbidities, like do they have basically existing conditions and by age. If you're below 60 and have no serious health issues, the probability of death is extremely low. It's not zero, but it's extremely low.

1:00:18It's almost like people really wanted a panic.

1:01:01Most of the hospitals in the United States right now are half empty. In some cases they're at 30% capacity.

1:01:16Yes. I mean, we're not talking about just some of these elective procedures are quite important.

1:01:25You need a triple bypass. It's sort of elective, but if you don't get it done in time, you're going to die.

1:01:35Elective. It's not like, this isn't like plastic surgery.

1:01:42It's more like my hip is, I'm in extreme pain because my hip's blown out or my knee and I don't want to go to the hospital. I can't go to the hospital. People are in extreme pain, people that need a kidney, people that have quite serious issues that are choosing not to go out of fear. So I think it's a problem that's not good.

1:02:28Objectively the mortality is much lower. At least a factor of 10, maybe a factor of 50 lower than initially thought.

1:03:00Well, I think proper hygiene is a good thing no matter what.

1:03:33Men are disgusting it's true.

1:03:52True. And I think that there's definitely some silver linings here in improved hygiene and- Joe Rogan:

1:04:38Yeah. Like killing large numbers of young healthy people, to find that as like a high mortality than that. This is at least practice for something like that. And I think there's this, given it's just a matter, that there will be eventually some such pandemic.

1:05:48Yeah, absolutely. And I think there's a good chance, it's highly likely, I think, coming out of this that we will develop vaccines that we didn't have before for coronaviruses, other viruses, and possibly cures for these. And our understanding of viruses of this nature has improved dramatically because of the attention that it's received. So there's definitely a lot of silver linings here.

1:06:26Yeah. I think there will be a massive lining of here no matter what. Hopefully we can be more of a silver lining than less.

1:07:22Yeah, of course.

1:07:28Well, I mean, I certainly get that. There's no shortage of negative feedback on Twitter.

1:07:40Yeah. I mean, I scroll through the comments. Like I said, it's a meme war zone.

1:09:28Sure. I mean, I've been in the Twitter war zone for, for a while here, so.

1:10:45Well, there will always be some ambiguity, but tweets, it's hard. But maybe there should be like a sarcasm flag or something.

1:10:55Or a "just kidding" or- Joe Rogan: It seems like it would take away some of the fun from people that know it's sarcasm. Like if everybody knew that The Onion wasn't, if you sent people articles. It was something about someone getting angry and an Onion article.

1:11:12Wow, that's amazing.

1:11:18Yeah, I think it's pretty great. It might be the best news source.

1:11:42Is this, like, a female avatar.

1:12:34Well, I mean like five minutes every couple of hours type thing. It's not like I'm sitting on it all day.

1:12:48Yeah, you have to, like I said, take a certain amount of distance from... You read this and be like, "Okay, it's bullets being fired by an opposing army." Like I said, it's not like they know you.

1:17:15Yeah. I mean, in general I think we should be concerned about anything that's a massive infringement on us.

1:18:14Fundamentally a violation of the constitution. Freedom of assembly and it's just, I don't think these things stand up in court, really.

1:18:33Yeah. These would definitely not stand up if the Supreme court... It's obviously a complete violation of rights.

1:18:51Yeah. I mean it just should be if you're at risk, you should not be compelled to leave your house or leave a place of safety, but if you're not at risk, or if you are at risk and you wish to take a risk with your life, you should have the right to do that.

1:19:30Yes. I mean, there's a strong downside to this. So yeah, I just believe this is a free country. You should be allowed to do what you want as long as it does not endanger others.

1:20:41Yeah. I think there's a, as I said, my opinion is if somebody wants stay home, they should stay home. If somebody doesn't want to stay home, they should not be compelled to stay home. That's my opinion. If somebody doesn't like that, well that's my opinion. This notion though, that you can just sort of send checks out to everybody and things will be fine is not true.

1:21:08Obviously several have this absurd view that the economy is like some magic horn of plenty. Like it just makes stuff. There's just a magic horn of plenty and the goods and services, they just come from this magic horn of plenty. And then if somebody has more stuff than somebody else it's because they took more from this magic horn of plenty. Now let me just break it to the fools out there.

1:21:38If you don't make stuff, there's no stuff. Yeah. So, if you don't make the food, if you don't process the food, you don't transport the food, medical treatment, getting your teeth fixed, there's no stuff. They've become detached from reality. You can't just legislate money and solve these things. If you don't make stuff, there is no stuff, obviously. we'll run out of the stores, run out of the... the machine just grinds to a halt.

1:23:03Briefly, but I think if any kind of sensible examination of what happened in China would lead you to conclusion that that is obviously not going to occur. This virus retreated in Wuhan. There's was like, I don't know, hundred thousand people a day leaving Wuhan. So, it went everywhere very fast throughout China, throughout the rest of the world, and the fatality rate was low.

1:23:57The thing is that American companies have massive supply chains in China. Like Tesla, for example. We have hundreds of suppliers. Like tier one, two, three, four suppliers throughout China. So, we know if they are able to make stuff or not. We know if they, if they have issues or not. China is back at full steam and pretty much every US company has some significant number of suppliers in China. So you know if they're able to provide things or not or if there's high mortality rate. Tesla has like 7,000 people in China. So, zero people died.

1:25:34I think this has been politicized in both directions, really. Which is not great. Yeah. But like I said [inaudible 01:25:54] I think there's the question of where do civil liberties fit in this picture? And what can the government make you do, what can they make you not do, and what's okay?

1:26:58Absolutely. Well, I think we're rapidly moving towards opening up the country. It's going to happen extremely fast over the next few weeks. So, yeah. Something that would be helpful just to add from an informational level is when reporting Covid cases to separate out diagnosed with Covid versus had Covid like symptoms.

1:28:27Well right now, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. I mean, it's mostly paved with bad intentions, but there's some good intentions [inaudible 01:28:37] in there, too. And the stimulus bill that was intended to help with the hospitals that were being overwrought with Covid patients created an incentive to record something as Covid that is difficult to say no to, especially if your hospital's going bankrupt for lack of other patients. So, the hospitals are in a bind right now. There's a bunch of hospitals, they're furloughing doctors, as you were mentioning. If your hospital's half full, it's hard to make ends meet. So now you've got like, "If I just check this box, I get $8,000. Put them on a ventilator for five minutes, I get $39,000 back. Or, I got to fire some doctors." So, this is tough moral quandary. It's like, what are you going to do?

1:29:46Let's clear up the data. Clear up the data. So like I said, somebody should be recorded as Covid only if somebody has been tested. Has has received a positive, positive Covid test. Not if they simply have symptoms, one of like a hundred symptoms. And then if it is a Covid death, it must be separated. Was Covid a primary reason for death, or did they also have stage three cancer, or heart disease, emphysema, and got hit by bus and had Covid?

1:30:26This is not a question.

1:30:38The public health officials have literally said this.

1:32:03Yes. But to be clear, you don't even need to have gotten a Covid diagnosis. You simply need to have had one of many symptoms and then have died for some reason and it's Covid. So, then it makes the death count look very high and we're then stuck in a bind because it looks like the death count's super high and not going down like it should be. So then, we should keep whatever, keep the shelter in place stuff there, and keep people in their homes, confine people to homes. So we need to break out of this. We're stuck in a loop. And I think the way to break out of this loop is to have clarity of information.

1:33:24I know a lot of people who got it. I know zero people who died, but I know a lot of people that got it.

1:34:23If you're going to die, you're going to have shortness of breath, weakness and you might cough a little.

1:34:31Yeah, did that person, did they actually have a COVID test and the test come back positive? And then if they died, did they die where COVID was... It doesn't have to be the main cause, but it was a significant contributor to their death or was it not a significant contributor to the death?

1:35:29I mean, every year in the world, several hundred thousand people die directly of the flu.

1:35:40Yeah. And we're only 5% of the world.

1:36:11Yeah. I mean, several years ago, or maybe longer, 10 years ago, I helped make a movie called Thank You for Smoking.

1:36:20Yeah. It's, it's crazy. Barbecuing your lungs is just bad news. It's not good. Turning your lungs into smoked beef, not great. So yeah. Tylenol, by the way, also kills a lot of people.

1:36:52I'm not sure the exact number. But until the opioid crisis, I believe Tylenol was the number one killer of all drugs.

1:39:13Let's just say, it's about the same.

1:39:29Yes. I mean actually, I think a lesson to be taken here that I think is quite important is that, if you have your grandparents and that they're age of grandparents, really be careful with, any kind of flu or cold or something that that is not dangerous to kids or young adults, but is dangerous to the elderly. Basically, if your kid's got a runny nose, they should stay away from their grandparents, no matter what it is. There're things where a young immune system has no problem, an older one has a problem. In fact a lot of the deaths are literally, it's tragic, but they're, they're intra-family. It's, the little kid had a cold or flu and they [crosstalk 01:40:31].

1:41:30Yeah. Actually, just a thing that is tough. As you get older, you tend to put on weight, certainly that's happening with me. The older I get like, "Damn, sure harder to stay lean." That's for sure. And so, actually, being overweight is a big deal.

1:42:18Yeah, absolutely.

1:42:47No. Tasty food is great, it's one of the best things about life.

1:43:08Yeah. I don't know what advice to give, maybe having tasty food but smaller amounts of it.

1:43:34So what?

1:43:36Well Okay, yeah.

1:43:56Actually, this may be a useful bit of advice for people, but eating before you go to bed is a real bad idea and actually negatively affects your sleep. And it can actually cause heartburn, that you don't even know is happening, and that subtle heartburn, it affects your sleep because your horizontal and your body's digesting. So if you want to improve the quality of your sleep and be healthier, it's do not eat right before we go to sleep. It's one of the worst things you could do.

1:44:43It's going to crush your sleep and it's going to damage your pyloric sphincter and your esophagus. In fact drinking and then going to sleep, that's one of the worst things you could do.

1:45:03Yeah, exactly. Small amounts of alcohol, evidence suggests it doesn't have a negative effect on- Joe Rogan: I put it in the same category as delicious food. It kind of makes things a little more fun.

1:45:52It's a big deal and I think, not widely known.

1:46:03I do, although I haven't seen him for a while. But yeah, especially if I'm out, say we're working on Starship or something South Texas and I'm just living in my, I got a little house there in Boca Chica village, and I don't have much to do, so. Or I'm working and I'll just lift some weights or something. Some people love running, I don't love running.

1:46:39To be totally frank, I wouldn't exercise at all if I could. I prefer not to exercise, but if I'm going to exercise, I'll lift some weights and then kind of run on a treadmill and maybe watch a show, if there's a compelling show that pulls you in.

1:47:04Man, don't watch Black Mirror before going to bed either.

1:47:43I did martial arts when I was kid.

1:47:48I did a TaeKwonDo. I did Karate, [foreign language 00:14:51] [crosstalk 01:47:52].

1:47:59Yeah. And did Brazilian Jujitsu briefly.

1:48:57Yeah. I mean, I kind of got, probably like a lot of people, for the way-early day, the first MMA fights and Royce Gracie, and he was just like incredible.

1:49:29Especially if they know martial arts too. It's like, "Oh no."

1:50:51[crosstalk 01:50:51].

1:51:09Well I can't say exactly when, but we got to get it... This COVID thing's kind of thrown us for a loop.

1:52:24I mean, I think we should do Cybertruck first, before Roadster.

1:53:02Sounds good to me, sure.

1:53:05Yeah, I mean, go ahead.

1:53:37I don't know specifically, but there's- Joe Rogan: It's pretty dope. They make it pretty dope looking... They take model S and they widen it and give it a bunch of carbon fiber. That's it, right there.

1:54:01Well, I think we've got to leave that for a proper sort of product unveil.

1:54:36Yeah, actually, it's really quite slow. But, okay, sure.

1:56:04Yeah, pretty fun.

1:56:47Well, like I said, we can't do the product unveil right here. But, it's going to do some things that are unfair.

1:57:14[inaudible 00:01:57:14].

1:57:18Faster than that, yeah.

1:57:29Well, yeah.

1:57:31...at least you know that our demos are authentic, because I was not expecting that and then I think I muttered, under my breath, like "Holy shit".

1:58:51...show, this is exoskeleton, high strength, hardened steel. You can literally wind up with a sledgehammer, full on double-handed sledgehammer and hit the door and there's not even a dent. It's cool. But we think that cracked the corner of the glass at the bottom and then, once you crack the corner of the glass it's game over. So then when you threw the ball that's what cracked the glass.

1:59:37Yeah, exactly.

1:59:54Well, I think you've got a great show.

编辑精选的 40 条现场发言,点时间戳可跳到视频对应位置。
First of all, my partner is the one that actually mostly came up with the name.0:41
Actually, I think it's better being older and having a kid. I appreciate it more. Yeah, babies are awesome.1:50
Yeah. Great. Wonderful. It's great. But babies are awesome. Yeah, it's great. Yeah. Also, I've spent a lot of time on AI and neural nets and so you can sort of see the brain develop, which is ... An AI neural net is trying to simulate what a brain does, basically. You can sort of see it learning very quickly. You know, it's just wow.2:32
In a lot of ways. There's some ways that are different. An analogy that's often used is like we don't make a submarine swim like a fish, but we take the principles of hydrodynamics and apply them to the submarine.3:41
I mean, the essential elements of an AI neural net are really very similar to a human brain neural net. Yeah. It's having the multiple layers of neurons and you know, back propagation. All these things are what your brain does. You have a layer of neurons that goes through a series of intermediate steps to ultimately cognition and then it'll reverse those steps and go back and forth and go all over the place. It's interesting.4:10
I think possessions kind of weigh you down and they're kind of an attack vector. They'll say, "Hey, billionaire, you've got all this stuff." Well, now I don't have stuff now what are you going to do?5:54
I mean, what's the worst that could happen? I mean, you're fine.6:39
For sure. I mean not everyone, but for sure in recent years billionaire has become pejorative like that's a bad thing. Which I think doesn't make a lot of sense in most cases. If you basically organized a company ... How does this wealth arise? If you organize people in a better way to produce products and services that are better than what existed before and you have some ownership in that company then that essentially gives you the right to allocate more capital.6:59
There's a conflation of consumption and capital allocation. Take Warren Buffet, for example, and to be totally frank I'm not his biggest fan, but you know, he does like have full allocation and he reads a lot of annual reports of companies and all the accounting and it's pretty boring really. He's trying to figure out does Coke or Pepsi deserve more capital? I mean it's kind of a boring job if you ask me.7:44
It's still a thing that's important to figure out. Like, which is a company deserving of more or less capital. Should that company grow or expand? Is it making products and services that are better than others or worse? If a company is making compelling products and services, it should get more capital and if it's not, it should get less or go out of business.8:18
Yeah, for sure. I think it's really, I do think there, in the United States especially, there's an over allocation of talent in finance and law. Basically, too many smart people go into finance and law. This is both a compliment and a criticism. We should have, I think, fewer people doing law and fewer people doing finance and more people making stuff.9:06
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Manufacturing used to be highly valued in the United States and these days it's not. It's often looked down upon, which I think is wrong.9:43
Yeah, I've been thinking about it for a while. You know, part of it is like I have a bunch of houses, but I don't spend a lot of time in most of them. That doesn't seem like a good use of assets. Somebody could probably be enjoying those houses and get better use of them me.10:47
I mean, all the cabinets are like handmade and they're like odd shapes and there's like doors to nowhere and strange corridors and tunnels and odd paintings on the wall.11:44
Well, I had one house and the Gene Wilder house is right across the road from me from my main house. It was going to get sold and then torn down and turned into, you know, be a big construction zone for three years. I was like, whoa, I think I'll buy it and preserve the spirit of Gene Wilder and not have a giant construction zone. Then I started having some privacy issues where people would just come to my house and start climbing over the walls and stuff. I'm like, man ...12:13
Then I sort of bought some of the houses around my house and then I thought at one point, well you know, it'd be cool to build a house. I acquired some properties at the top of Somera Road, which has got a great view, and I was like, okay, well there's a bunch of sort of small older houses, they're going to get torn down, anyway. I was like, well, if I collect these little houses then I can build something, I don't know, artistic like a dream house type of thing.12:54
Yeah, definitely. Yeah. You got to have the dome that opens up with the stealth helicopter and that kind of thing, you know?13:36
Yeah, yeah, definitely. I mean, you can only do so many things.14:21
Well, I think I do have high productivity, but even with that there's still some opportunity to [inaudible 00:14:57] time and allocating time to building a house, even if it was a really great house, it still is not a good use of time relative to developing the rockets necessary to get us to Mars and helping solve sustainable energy. SpaceX and Tesla are by far, you know, the most amount of brain cycles. The Boring Company does not take, you know, it's like less than 1% of brain cycles. Then this neural link, which is, I don't know, maybe it's like 5% and then ...14:52
No, we're not testing on people yet, but I think it won't be too long. I think we may be able to implant a neural link in less than a year in a person I think.15:50
It's a very low potential for rejection. I mean, you can think of it like people put in heart monitors and things for epileptic seizures and deep brain stimulation obviously like artificial hips and knees and that kind of thing. The probability of, I mean, so it's well known what will cause rejection and what will not. It's definitely harder when you've got something that is sort of reading and writing neurons that's generating a current pulse and reading current pulses. That's a little harder than say a passive device, but it's still very doable. There are people who have primitive devices in their brains right now.16:20
Well, like deep brain stimulation, I think for Parkinson's, has really changed people's lives in a big way, which is kind of remarkable because it kind of like zaps your brain. It's like kicking the TV type of thing. You think like man, kicking the TV shouldn't work.17:17
Well, for version one of the device, it would be it basically implanted in your skull. It would be flush with your skull, so you basically take out a chunk of skull, put the Neuralink device in there. You'd insert the electrode threads very carefully into the brain and then you stitch it up and you wouldn't even know that somebody has it. It can interface basically anywhere in your brain. It could be something that helps cure say eyesight, like returns your eyesight even if you've lost your optic nerve type of thing.18:18
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I mean, pretty much anything that it could, in principle, fix almost anything that is wrong with the brain. It could restore limb functionality, so if you've got an interface into the motor cortex and then an implant that's like a microcontroller and near muscle groups, you could then create sort of a neural shunt that restores somebody who is a quadriplegic to full functionality. Like they can walk around and be normal.19:10
Like the, you know, $6 million man. Although these days that doesn't sound like much.19:58
Well, yeah, the device we're working on right now is about, it's about an inch in diameter. Your skull is pretty thick, by the way.20:14
A half inch. Half inch thick skull ish. Yeah, yeah, that's a fair bit of like ... We've got quite a coconut going on there.20:40
Yeah, and you replace that say one inch diameter piece of skull with the Neuralink device and that has a battery and a Bluetooth and an inductive charger. Then you also insert the electrodes. The electrodes are very carefully inserted with a robot that we developed. It's very carefully putting in the electrodes and avoiding any veins or arteries so it doesn't create trauma.21:33
I mean, they usually go in like, depending on where it is, like two or three millimeters.22:27
Yeah, I mean you could for sure, I mean, basically it's a generalized sort of thing for fixing any kind of brain injury in principle, or if you've got like severe epilepsy or something like that. It could just sort of stop the epilepsy from occurring. It could detect it in real time and then fire a counter pulse and stop the epilepsy. I mean, there's a whole range of brain injuries. Like if somebody gets a stroke, they could lose the ability to speak and that could also be fixed. If you've got like stroke damage or you lose say muscle control over part of your face or something like that. When you get older you tend to, if you've got like Alzheimer's or something like that, then you lose memory and this could help you with restoring your memory and that kind of thing.23:16
The thing is it's like a bunch of circuits and there's some circuits that are broken and we can fix those circuits. It's a substitute for those circuits.24:35
Yeah. I mean, there's still a lot of work to do. When I say we've got a shot at probably putting in a person within a year, that's exactly what I mean. I think we have a chance of putting it into one and having them be healthy and restoring some functionality that they've lost.25:03
I mean, ultimately if you want to go with full AI symbiosis, you'll probably want to do something like that.25:45
Yeah, I think this is one of the paths to think like what are ... Like AI is getting better and better. Now let's assume it's sort of like a benign AI scenario. Even in a benign scenario, we're kind of left behind. We're not along for the ride.26:32
From a [inaudible 00:34:54] perspective probably. But yeah, I mean you could save state and restore that state into a biological being if you wanted to in the future in principle, nothing from a physics standpoint that prevents us. Now, you'd be a little different, but then you're also a little different when you wake up in the morning from yesterday and you're a little different. In fact, if you say like you five years ago versus you today is quite a big difference.34:54
Well, I don't have a Neuralink in my brain, so I'd say right now 0%, but at the point at which you do have a Neuralink, then it rises above 0%.36:49
Yeah. I'm sure, it should be disconcerting because if this is not real, what is? But, there's that old sort of thought experiment of like, how do you know you're not a brain in a vent? I mean now here's the thing. You are a brain in a vent, then that vat is your skull.37:45
The one that just dragged the baby down the street pretty far?39:58
Well, I hope consciousness propagates into the future and it gets more sophisticated and complex and that it understands the questions to ask about the universe.40:47
I mean, you don't always improve, but you can aspire to improve or you can aspire to be less wrong.41:41

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