Tesla Q3 2026 财报及问答网络直播

Thank you. So the third quarter was very strong, and I'd like to give a big congratulations to the whole Tesla team for working hard to make it happen. Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It's exceeding our production by a significant margin. And obviously, we're going to be ramping and we are ramping production meaningfully. The biggest driver for demand is full self-driving. And today, there's really no competitor for FSD in any car that you can buy. And to be clear, we are producing and delivering as many cars as we can, and we're pushing very hard for FSD approval in additional markets. We're now approved in many countries in Europe, and we're hoping for an EU-wide approval. It's hard to predict, but maybe within a few months, but I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1. But obviously, that's not a time frame we control, but we do anticipate being fully approved in throughout Europe and many other countries. We also began production of the Tesla Semi truck in Q3 and did the new Roadster demo, which was, I think, one of the most exciting events. I mean, arguably, the coolest demo of any product ever, and that's a testament to amazing work by the Tesla and SpaceX teams. So we've also been like laying the groundwork for a lot more manufacturing capacity. We're, I think, aiming for 5 million vehicles a year by approximately 2030. And that's -- I think we've got a good shot of achieving that goal. And yes, so energy demand is very strong. We're actually almost sold out of all Megapacks for 2027, and we're ramping production as quickly as possible to meet demand. We also expect gross margins on that to increase meaningfully. So in a nutshell, after many years of sort of grind and things being fairly flat, I think we're now headed for a lot of fun and significant growth. Regarding Robotaxi, we're seeing the Robotaxi miles driven -- fully autonomous miles driven scale exponentially, meaning scaling very rapidly. And it would be hard to overstate this point. It really is an extremely fast week-over-week growth in autonomous miles. And I don't think there's any company in the world that can match our scale with autonomous vehicles as we continue to ramp. The Cybercab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago. And the cumulative mileage is really -- when I look at the weekly chart, it's wow. I mean it looks like a rocket going to orbit basically is growing very fast. And I recommend if you want to try it out, come into Austin and you'll see Cybercabs in use at scale in Austin, as I think a lot of people saw with the Austin City Limits concert recently. So this is really going to a very good place. Regarding Optimus, we've started like what I'd call early production on our high-volume line in Fremont. I want to elaborate on this point because -- and I've said this before that the growth of Optimus, it's an S-curve, but the initial part of the S-curve is -- has a shallow slope and is somewhat bumpy because it is such a radically new product. So the way to think about it is there's like 10,000 things that have to go right for production of the robot, and it will move as fast as the slowest least likely of the 10,000. But we do have the vast majority of a 1 million unit per line production line landed in Fremont right now. But I would expect that it takes us probably at least a year, maybe a little longer to get to that annualized rate to get to 20,000 units a week. So this is just fundamentally because there's still parts of the design that are changing. Like a lot of people ask me about Optimus. That's why I think I've got to kind of sort of belabor this point because if people aren't -- don't sort of understand like new technology that well or volume production of complex new hardware that well, it sort of seems like, well, can't you just make a whole bunch of these things immediately and send them out. And it's like, no, you've got to basically build up an entire gigantic global supply chain and have domestically a very, very big factory and everything has got to work. And there's still some things we need to tweak about the design because you need to deliver a robot that is safe and reliable and has long duration. So it can't, like, wear out after a month. And there's still quite a lot of work to do with regard to the AI and the robot for it to be truly useful for open-ended tasks. But like I said, if -- I would expect that the AI, the electromechanical design and the reliability and duration -- usage duration, like the usage life of the robot, I expect -- I do expect these issues to be solved around the end of next year. So that's the time to expect when we're delivering Optimus to companies outside of Tesla. And I remain convinced that Optimus will be the biggest product on Earth and humanoid robots in general will be the biggest product on Earth. So Optimus is a very big deal, but I don't want to temper expectations that we still have a lot to get through, and it's about a year or so that will take us to get through all that stuff. But as to the best of my knowledge, there is no one that is even close to Tesla with respect to a general purpose humanoid robot. Regarding the Terafab, the Austin-based research fab is progressing quickly. We'll begin commissioning machinery in the first half of next year. And hopefully, if things go well, we'll make our first test chip just to see if we can make any chip at all around May or June. So that's, I think, pretty exciting. And then we're -- our aspiration is to be making some kind of useful chip at volume around Q3 of 2028. So, and as I said publicly, the Terafab, I think, will be the most valuable building in the world and will probably have an economic value that will place it in the top 20 of countries. So it's an epic project. And this will be an incredibly important asset, if not a necessary asset in order to scale, especially Optimus as we can address bottlenecks in semiconductors, whether it's memory, packaging, logic or whatever the case may be. With regard to a potential merger with SpaceX, I think I said everything that should be said yesterday, tap-dancing through a minefield there. And yes, that's it. In conclusion, we're super excited about our autonomy and robotics road map. There's a lot of incredibly awesome stuff coming. And I'd like to once again thank the Tesla team for their strong execution and all of our supporters for joining us on this journey.

I mostly talked about this already, but it's not crowdsourcing is not the issue for Optimus. There's a lot of things we have to get right about the AI architecture that we're still working on. We're making good progress, but that needs to be sorted out. And really, in order for Optimus to get the training data we need, we actually need to make a lot of Optimi. So we need to make, I think, on the order of 10,000 or 20,000 bots and then have them do self-play and we're building up an Optimus Academy where Optimus can practice doing a very wide range of tasks. And then we can use that data in sort of a flywheel to make it better and better at these various tasks. A big difference with Optimus versus the cars is we don't have this vast fleet of cars from which we can gather training data. So with Optimus, we have to bootstrap it by making the robots and having them do self-play, which is really how a human learns to navigate the world. That's -- you can see this when you have a toddler and they grow up and they -- initially, they're sort of wobbly and they don't know how to do things and eventually, they learn to wipe their own ass, which is a big milestone. As anyone's who has had kids knows. And then they learn to read and do all sorts of things and be able to do these things. And they learn this by playing. And we actually need Optimus to play at scale in order to have it be really good at tasks in the real world. And Ashok, you may want to add to that.

Yes. I think we may be ready to release like an Optimus video in a month or so. I want to make sure that like when we release this video that it's not like a canned demo that -- like when you see these robot, humanoid robot demonstrations, some of them look very impressive, but they're not really using any kind of advanced AI or SI. I mean they're like preprogrammed deterministic tasks. And if you actually try to use that humanoid robot in the real world, you would have a lot of trouble. It wouldn't work basically. So I want to release a video that's where it's Optimus doing things that are not preprogrammed. And I think that would be -- it's maybe a month or 2 for that to have a demo that you can believe what you see type of thing. And then there's another milestone that's, I think, important we want to get to, which is to integrate our -- the Tesla AI5 chip into Optimus, which if things go according to plan, will be in approximately April of next year. And that's a giant improvement in capability with an order of magnitude more sort of more operations per second. Like it's an order of magnitude more compute, AI5 versus AI4. And that will help Optimus a lot because the degrees of freedom that a humanoid robot has to deal with are far greater than what a car has to deal with. So it is a bit of a struggle to squeeze the -- everything needed to operate with all the degrees of freedom of Optimus and the wide range of tasks. If you can think of a humanoid robot is going to do like 1,000x more things than a car would do. That's some very big number basically. So I think the additional compute of AI5 will make a big difference, and that comes in, hopefully in volume around April of next year. And that's why I think like all the pieces like the refinements in electromechanical dexterity, making sure Optimus can operate for long periods of time without wearing out, getting the AI software right and the AI5 chip integrated. All of these things kind of come together. That's why I think about a year from now is when it's something that would be -- that you could ship to customers. And it would also be reaching scale in production. So that's probably the right timing to think about. In terms of the initial customers for Optimus, I think it probably would be things that are industrial applications at first, things that are like dangerous repetitive tasks, things that people really don't want to do. So -- and that you want done basically 24/7. So like around-the-clock stuff. That's going to be the highest value for Optimus in the beginning. As we scale production, of course, it would be something that people can buy for their home. But the initial high-value use will be -- the highest value use, I think, will be kind of heavy industry, dangerous tasks or things that may cause repetitive stress injuries and that you want done 24/7. So that's the way to think about it.

I just answered that one basically.

No. I mean Cybercab is primarily going to be something that is offered as like transport as a service whereas our other cars would be more the cars that you'd want to own like the 3 and the Y and whatnot, and Roadster, obviously. But the vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be essentially Tesla-owned and transport as a service.

Yes.

Super hard problem.

Yes. I wouldn't say it's not like going to move the needle this quarter. But if you say like maybe -- I think it starts to become noticeable probably in Q2 and then probably a big deal by Q3 or Q4 of next year.

I think it's still early days on that front. We don't know the full extent of how -- what that will -- how that will unfold. I think we'll have a better sense for that probably in maybe end of Q1 or Q2. But it does have a lot of potential. It's just hard to say how much potential right now.

Well, it's going to be some pretty significant capital. It's certainly in the tens of billions for Terafab. Although we've got to figure out like what the sort of relative split is between SpaceX and Tesla in terms of who pays for what at Terafab. But it's not going to be less than tens of billions in capital equipment up through early 2028. And then it will be -- it will probably be north of $100 billion long term.

The research fab.

Yes. That's where we're just figuring out how to work the equipment type of thing. But real production would be late '28, which is lightning fast by fab standards.

Yes. It's mostly the hand and just kind of the fine-tuning of the hand design and the fingers, especially just -- it's a hard problem because humans have self-repair, like our hands repair -- our body repairs itself, but robots don't. So you have to -- and our fingers are kind of squishy and have lots of sensors in our skin. It's hard to make a hand that is -- that can handle lots of wear and tear, but it's still squishy enough to pick up delicate objects and has all the sensors and doesn't damage the sensors when you do repeated actions. And there's a lot of little things that you realize actually what an incredible thing the human hand is at the end of the day. So it's mostly from an electromechanical standpoint, the hands. There are other things that are improving as well throughout the robot, but that's the main thing. And then as I mentioned, upgrading the intelligence -- the onboard intelligence of the robot with AI5, which is a big step change in intelligence that will help a lot with the capabilities of Optimus. So I've said before that like humanoid robots, biggest product on Earth and its usefulness will be -- it's a rough approximation multiple of the electromechanical dexterity, the AI software and the AI chip hardware. And all 3 of those things are improving exponentially. I think we used that word a lot, but -- and the value is roughly those 3 things multiplied by each other. And then the Optimus robots will build the future Optimus robots. So you have a recursive function. So when you have a recursive multiplicative exponential, things will really grow extremely fast. They may start from a small base, but they're going to grow to crazy levels. And I think at some point, there will be more humanoid robots on Earth than there are humans.

I mean I think we -- unless we are stopped by governments, which is certainly a possibility, like if they're trying to protect the domestic industry, I think Tesla will end up doing a majority of all passenger miles on Earth in any country where it is allowed to operate freely.

And you can come back and look at this prediction, but I feel confident about this prediction.

Well, that's what we're doing is we're building robots that do not have perfected hands, and we are making progress with Optimus training and ironing out all aspects of the supply chain and the production system. So that's -- we're doing all these things in parallel, like this giant production line in -- at our Fremont factory, massive supply chain and then fine-tuning the design and engineering simultaneously with the AI software. So all these things are happening simultaneously. And we're growing as fast as humanly possible here. I don't think anyone is going to have -- and in fact, I'd be stunned if anyone has a robot that is remotely competitive with Optimus when we go -- when we start delivering it to customers, which is likely to be towards the end of next year.

Yes. We're definitely, as I say, in Vegas betting on the come.

It's not a massive impact right now. I think CapEx is actually -- it's actually ending up being a little lower than we anticipated. But it will start to become more meaningful next year and then noticeable like in the tens of billions in '28.