Tesla Q4 与 2025 全年财务业绩及 Q&A 直播

Thanks, Travis. So I have updated the Tesla, Inc. mission to amazing abundance, and this is intended to send a message of optimism about the future. I think we are most likely headed to an exciting, amazing era of abundance. I think with the advent or continued growth of AI and robotics, I think we actually are headed to a future of universal income, not universal basic income, but universal high income. There is going to be a lot of change along the way, but that is what I see as the most likely outcome. So I think it makes sense to update Tesla, Inc.'s mission to reflect that goal. Obviously, along that way, we are going to keep improving safety, driving down the cost of goods, and getting people access to anything they need without compromise. Making sure that the environment is great, nature is great, and people can have whatever they want, which seems like probably the best future. Open to other ideas, but that sounds like the best future you could possibly imagine. I guess it would be that everyone can have whatever they want, including amazing medical care, but we still keep the beauty of nature and Earth. I think that's probably the best outcome. We are seeing the first steps along that way this year for Tesla, Inc., post major steps. As we increase vehicle autonomy and begin to produce Optimus robots at scale, we are making very big investments. This is going to be a very big CapEx year, as we will get into. That is deliberate because we are making big investments for an epic future. I think all these investments make a lot of sense. We will continue to make sure that when we do spend capital, it is spent very efficiently. But it's a lot of things. Major investments in batteries and the entire supply chain of batteries. We are also going to be significant manufacturers of solar cells, and we are making massive investments in AI chips. I think these all make a ton of strategic sense. I guess I have one, not exactly bad news, but it's time to bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge. We are really moving into a future that is based on autonomy. If you are interested in buying a Model S and X, now would be the time to order it because we expect to wind down S and X production next quarter and basically stop production of Model S and X next quarter. We will obviously continue to support the Model S and X programs for as long as people have the vehicles. We are going to take the Model S and X production space in our Fremont factory and convert that into an Optimus factory with a long-term goal of having a million units a year of Optimus robots in the current S and X space in Fremont. That is slightly sad, but it is time to bring the S and X programs to an end and shift to an autonomous future. As my profile picture on X for a few months there, the future is autonomous. With respect to self-driving and robotaxi, people are obviously following with very close attention the progress of FSD, and you can experience it for yourself. If you have a Tesla, you notice with every software update, the car gets better and better at autonomy. We were able to do our first rides with no safety monitor in the car in Austin. These are paid rides, randomly selected paid rides with no safety monitor. I think maybe as of yesterday or so, we actually do not even have a chase car or anything like that. These are just cars with no people in them and no one following the car in Austin. We are obviously being very cautious about this because we want to have no injuries or serious accidents along the way. I think it makes sense to be very cautious. You will see the amount of autonomy increase dramatically, I think, every month, essentially. There will also be an opportunity, something we have talked about for a long time, for existing owners of Teslas to add or subtract their cars to the fleet, kind of like how Airbnb works where you can add or subtract your house to the Airbnb inventory. I think probably the value of the Tesla, Inc. partial people adding or subtracting the cars to Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous fleet is probably a little underweighted by a lot of people because we have millions of cars with AI4 that can do this. It might potentially provide an opportunity for a lot of customers to earn more lending their car to the fleet than their lease cost to Tesla, Inc. It's kind of like you get paid to own a Tesla, Inc. It's quite a good scenario. We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. A big factor would be if there's some kind of federal preemption for autonomous vehicles. In the absence of that, you have to go on a city-by-city or state-by-state basis. Nonetheless, even if it is city-by-city, state-by-state, we expect to be in dozens of major cities by the end of the year. With respect to energy, the Tesla, Inc. energy team has done incredible work. The growth rate on that work is continuing to be very strong. We are building more manufacturing capacity and expect that energy will have very high growth for as far into the future as we can imagine. The solar opportunity is underestimated. We think the best way to add significant capability to the grid is solar and batteries on Earth and solar in space. That's why we are going to work towards getting 100 gigawatts a year of solar cell production integrating across the entire supply chain from raw materials all the way to finished solar panels. Maybe a bit more about Optimus. We will probably unveil Optimus 3 in a few months. I think it's going to be quite surprising to people. It's an incredibly capable robot. As I mentioned, we are replacing the S and X line in Fremont with a million unit per year line of Optimus. Because it is a completely new supply chain, there's really nothing from the existing supply chains that exist in Optimus. Everything is designed from physics first principles. That means the normal S curve of manufacturing ramp will be longer for Optimus than it is for products that have at least some portion of an existing supply chain. When everything's new, the production rate will be proportionate to the least lucky, least confident part of the entire supply chain. If there's 10,000 things that need to go right, it only takes one to be slow to lag that. It will be a stretched-out S curve. I'm confident that we'll get to a million units a year in Fremont of Optimus 3. This Optimus really will be a general-purpose robot that can learn by observing human behavior. You can demonstrate a task or verbally describe a task or show it a task. Even show it a video, it will be able to do that task. It's going to be a very capable robot. I think long-term Optimus will have a very significant impact on the US GDP. It will actually move the needle on US GDP significantly. In conclusion, there are still many who doubt our ambitions for creating amazing abundance. We are confident it can be done, and we are making the right moves technologically to ensure that it does. Tesla, Inc. has never been a company to shy away from solving the hardest problems. I think that's how you build value in a company, you solve hard problems. I don't know how you create value by solving easy problems. There are a lot of hard problems that the Tesla, Inc. team is going to solve, but it's an incredibly talented, hardworking team. I'd like to thank everyone at Tesla, Inc. for their incredible hard work. It's an honor to work with such a talented group. Thank you to everyone who is supporting this mission. The future is more exciting than you can imagine.

Yeah. Thanks, Travis. As Elon said, the future is autonomous.

Just to add to what Lars said there. The point that Lars made, which is that 90% of miles driven are with one or two passengers or one or two occupants, essentially, is a very important one. Because that implies that the CyberCab, which is a dedicated two-seater dedicated robo taxi, is a little confusing with the terms robo taxi and CyberCab. Sorry about the confusion. In fact, in some states, we're not allowed to use the word cab or taxi, so it's going to get even more strange. It's going to be like cyber vehicle or something cyber car. But the CyberCab, which is a specific model that we're making, does not have a steering wheel or pedals. So this is clearly, there's no fallback mechanism here. It's like this car either drives itself or it does not drive. We expect to start production in April. As always, it's just an S curve of the production rate is an S curve, so it starts off very slowly and then grows exponentially, then you hit the linear, and then ultimately it asymptotes at whatever your target volume is. We would expect over time to make far more CyberCabs than all of our other vehicles combined. Given that 90% of distance driven or distance being distance traveled exactly, no longer driving, is one or two people. I think it's like 80% is just one. It would mean that long-term CyberCab would make several times more CyberCabs per year than all of our other vehicles combined.

Yeah. The vast majority of miles traveled will be autonomous in the future. I would say probably less than I'm just guessing, but probably less than 5% of miles driven will be where somebody's actually driving the car themselves in the future, maybe as low as 1%.

Yeah. Like, the CyberCab, the whole design of CyberCab was to optimize the fully considered cost per mile of autonomous driving. It's a different design problem than if you're trying to design cars for people who will be driving versus being driven. So CyberCab is super optimized for minimum cost per mile and also for a much higher duty cycle. You would expect CyberCab to be used probably fifty or sixty hours a week instead of the ten or eleven hours a week that a driven vehicle is used. Typically, people might drive their car for an hour and a half a day on average, so it's like ten hours a week out of a hundred and sixty-eight. But I think an autonomous vehicle is likely to be used probably five times as often. Which means that you need to design the vehicle for much more wear and tear per unit time and much more resilience. It's more like a commercial truck that's in continuous operation or close to continuous operation. That is how you design an autonomous vehicle.

I really think long-term, the only vehicles that we'll make will be autonomous vehicles with the exception of the next generation Roadster which we're hoping to debut in April.

It's gonna be something out of this world. Fantastic.

But yeah. We will transition the Cybertruck line to just a fully autonomous line. There's obviously a market there for cargo delivery, like you say, localized cargo delivery within a city, within a few hundred miles, something like that. There's a lot of cargo that needs to move locally within a city, and an autonomous Cybertruck could be very useful for that.

Well, we are still very much at the early stages of Optimus. It's still in the R&D phase. We have had Optimus do some basic tasks in the factory. But as we iterate on new versions of Optimus, we deprecate the old versions. It's not in usage in our factories in a material way. It's more so that the robot can learn. We wouldn't expect to have any kind of significant Optimus production volume until probably the end of this year.

Yeah. It's an awesome robot that minimizes any differences, but it looks like a human. People could be easily confused that it's a human. This helps our strategy for the AI too because you can learn how humans do these tasks, and it's very easy to teach the robot in the same way. As opposed to previous robots.

I guess one thing I should say, there's a lot of news of various companies announcing layoffs and whatnot. But at our Tesla, Inc. factory in Fremont, we actually expect to increase headcount over time. To significantly increase output from our factories. We don't have any layoff plans. We expect to actually increase headcount.

Well, it is 100% unsupervised. FSD is 100% unsupervised. We obviously have cars operating with no one in them and no safety monitor and no follow car or anything like that in Austin right now. For customers, we're just being very cautious with the rollout. With each successive version as we prove it out and we make sure that there are no unique issues in particular cities. Sometimes you get some very difficult intersections. It will be an intersection where a lot of humans have accidents, by the way. There are some pretty nutty intersections where a lot of humans make mistakes and have accidents in various cities. We want to make sure that FSD can handle those unusual intersections. If you take LA, for example, where Wilshire and Santa Monica combined is like there's about 20 traffic lights. People are constantly having accidents there. You want to make sure that FSD can handle things in a particular city. We're actually just being paranoid about safety. With each successful release of FSD, we will reduce the amount of driver monitoring that's needed proportionate to the safety of the FSD build.

Yeah. In terms of taxi vehicles carrying paid customers, I think we're well over 500 at this point between the Bay Area and Austin.

This will probably double every month type of thing. It's on an exponential curve.

Well, I tend to spend time on whatever the most critical issue is for the company. Completing the AI5 chip design and having it be a great chip is arguably the number one most critical thing to get done, which is why I'm spending more time on that than currently anything else at Tesla, Inc. I spend pretty much every Saturday on this, and a chunk of every Tuesday. If I'm spending my Saturdays on something, it's going to be something pretty important. I do think AI5 will be a very good chip. I feel quite confident about the design at this point. AI6, which will follow that, aspirationally would follow that in under a year. It will be yet another big leap beyond AI5. I feel pretty good about our chip strategy right now. In terms of selling it outside of Tesla, Inc., we first need to make sure we have enough chips for our vehicle production, all of our Optimus production. We will actually use the AI5 chips in our data centers. We already use the AI4 chips in our data centers. When we do training, it's a combination of the AI4 chips and NVIDIA hardware. Primarily that we do training with. By the end of the decade, things are changing so fast that it's hard to imagine what happens at the end of the decade. When I look ahead at what's the limiting factor for Tesla, Inc. growth if you go three or four years out, I think it actually is chip production. Is there enough AI logic and enough memory, enough RAM for volume? Right now, I see that as being the thing that probably limits our growth in three or four years. Which implies that we're not selling chips outside of Tesla, Inc. because we need them. In fact, I think it's going to make sense. This is definitely going to be a controversial thing, but I think Tesla, Inc. needs to build a TerraFab. I mentioned this at the shareholder meeting. Even when you look at the output of the best-case output of all of our key suppliers, and I'd say even they're beyond suppliers are like strategic partners like Samsung, TSMC, and Micron. We say, what's the most you could possibly make? Then it's not enough. I think in order to remove the constraint, the probable constraint in three or four years, we're going to have to build a Tesla, Inc. TerraFab, a very big fab that includes logic, memory, and packaging. Domestically. That's actually also going to be very important to ensure that we are protected against any geopolitical risks. I think people may be underweighting some of the geopolitical risks that are going to be a major factor in a few years. A lot of people will say that's crazy. Fabs are really hard. Yes, I know fabs are really hard. I don't think they're easy.

Or we didn't used to have battery cell factories or lithium refineries or MegaPack factories or all these other things. We figured it out. I think if we don't do the Tesla, Inc. TerraFab, we're going to be limited by supplier output of chips. I think maybe memory is an even bigger limiter than AI logic. For example, we have chip supply deals with TSMC in Arizona and Samsung in Texas, but currently, there are no advanced memory fabs at scale in the United States. There are zero, literally zero. Hopefully, Micron will have something going in a few years because they are headquartered in Idaho, where they make a lot of potato chips. We don't really need to make computer chips too. We're with our strategic partners on the chip front, memory and logic. I think we gotta also try our hand at building a large-scale fab that integrates logic memory and packaging. If we don't do that, we're just going to be fundamentally limited by the supply chain. Especially if there's some worst-case geopolitical situation, it would be quite a severe situation. I think quite frankly, it'd be crazy not to try out the TerraFab.

We'll have a bigger announcement on this in the future.

And then for training. Training. Yeah.

We just had a lot of investors ask us to do this. There was a lot of investor but Tesla, Inc. shareholders said we should invest in XAI. So we're just doing what shareholders would ask us to do pretty much. But Grok will be, I think, very helpful in maximizing the efficiency of the management of a large autonomous fleet. If you've got an autonomous fleet that's in the future, 10 million vehicles or tens of millions of vehicles, then optimizing the efficient use of that fleet Grok will be way better than any heuristic solution. Or manually managed solution. If you set up managing a large team of Optimus robots to build a factory or build a refinery, and say a rare hypothetical like this is a hypothetical example. A rare earth ore refinery. Which we do desperately need in America. Then you'd say, well, what's going to organize the Optimus robots to build that ore refinery? You kind of need an orchestra conductor. So then Grok would be kind of the orchestra conductor. For the Optimus robots to build the hypothetically, an it might not be hypothetical in the future. I'm just saying it's not currently on our plans. But we do need a lot more ore refining capacity in the US. So then what's going to manage, let's say, a thousand Optimus robots?

Well, at Tesla, Inc., the Tesla, Inc. AI is very compute efficient and very memory efficient. One of the metrics I want you to consider for any given AI model is the intelligence per gigabyte. Especially when you're constrained on RAM. Having an AI that has very high intelligence density per gigabyte, you can say, for a given number of gigabytes, how much functionality can you get out of it? I actually think Tesla, Inc. is ahead of the rest of the world in intelligence density of AI by an order of magnitude or more. This is going to sound like a pretty bold statement, but I kind of know what the intelligence efficiency of the big models are like Grok. The honest and a bunch of the other models. Tesla, Inc.'s AI is, in terms of memory efficiency, I think, more than an order of magnitude better. So that puts us in a pretty good position for scaling. We do think that there's we do have a solution for logic and memory for, let's say, the next roughly three years. But if you start going beyond three years, and we look at the scaling plans, and how many fabs are getting built, especially if you factor in geopolitical uncertainty, there's always risk that maybe those chips don't arrive that people were expecting to arrive. That's why I think we need to have more fab capacity in the US. Just in case. Chips don't stop arriving for any reason. This is really existential for Tesla, Inc. because Optimus is completely useless without an AI chip. It's not like at least the cars we can put steering wheels and pedals in. Or retrofit them if need be. But Optimus is just a mannequin without, it's like the Tin Man or whatever The Wizard of Oz. But even worse, at least the Tin Man could walk. Optimus won't even be able to just sit there without an AI chip. We've got a good solution for significant scale through for the next roughly three years. Beyond that, we will be supplier limited and so we've got to figure out some game plan to not be supplier limited.

Well, I do think that by far, the biggest competition for humanoid robots will be from China. China is incredibly good at scaling manufacturing. Actually quite good at AI as you can see from the open-source, not the open-source, but the sort of I guess, some of them are open, actually. But, basically, the models that China's distributing for free are actually quite good and they keep getting better. China is very good at AI, very good at manufacturing, and will definitely be the toughest competition for Tesla, Inc. To the best of our knowledge, we don't see any significant competitors outside of China. But China will definitely be tough competition. There's no two ways about it. I always think people sort of outside of China kind of underestimate China. China's next level. We think Optimus will be much more capable than any robot that we are aware of under development in China. We think we'll be ahead in terms of the real-world intelligence, the electromechanical dexterity, especially the hand design, which is by far the hardest thing in the robot. In fact, I'd say there's really three hard things about humanoid robots. Building an incredible hand that has the same degrees of freedom and dexterity as a human hand is an incredibly difficult engineering challenge. Then there's the real-world AI and scaling production. Those are the three hardest problems by far for humanoid robots. I think Tesla, Inc. is the only company that actually has all three of those components.

Well, really, all we're trying to do is make sure that we can scale to a very high volume with autonomous vehicles, with humanoid robots. That we address geopolitical risk. There are so many companies out there that are asleep with the switch with regard to geopolitical risk. Or they just have their head in the sand and hope nothing bad will happen. I'm way more paranoid than that. Always think of Andy Grove's famous statement, only the paranoid survive. Why did he come up with that statement at Intel? Let's think. I think there's a lot of wisdom in that statement. We're going to be paranoid. Make sure that we can continue to build batteries and robots and AI chips no matter what happens. Companies that don't do that, a bunch of them will cease to exist.

Yeah. We're building the most advanced lithium refinery in the world, by the way. It's not just like, our lithium refinery in Corpus Christi is not just a copy of what others have done. It's an entirely new process that is fundamentally more efficient and more advanced than anything else in the world. The same is true of our cathode refinery here in Austin. We wish others would build this. Can other people please, for the love of God, help? In the name of all that is holy, can others please build this stuff? It's not the first time you host. Exactly.

Why do we have to build these things? Why can others not also please build these things? It's very hard to build these things. We build them out of desperation. Not because nobody else is building lithium refineries and cathode refineries. We're pretty much the not just the largest, but also the only lithium refinery and cathode refinery in America. We're making moves to make sure that no matter what happens, Tesla, Inc. will prosper.