我们为 FSD 模拟了整个世界：马斯克 2021 访谈

0:00Welcome, big hander, Elon Musk.

0:02Thank you.

0:05Action.

0:06Oh, how are you?

0:07Good.

0:08Fantastic.

0:09We have found it.

0:12We have two days of AI and Gen AI and what-so-ver, but you look real.

0:18My head is very big on the screen.

0:20I had a reality too, please.

0:21We have had so much talk about AI in these two days, so we need your opinion.

0:26What do you think about the next five to ten years on AI?

0:29Please give us a view artificial insemination

0:36But try try audience and I say

0:39Yes artificial intelligence is

0:43It's certainly a profoundly changed world. One most significant ways is self-driving

0:47So we've been putting a lot of effort into self-driving

0:51Technology or cars you don't see it quite as much in Europe because we first have to make it work in the US before we

0:57we increased the complexity of trying to make it elsewhere in the world.

1:01But I think we're quite close to having the car be fully autonomous.

1:05So for example, like right now, I'm in Austin,

1:08and if I went to drive, say to the airport,

1:11the car could take me to the airport with no interventions.

1:13Using and all it's using are digital neural nets,

1:17in other words, artificial intelligence and cameras.

1:19So there's no LIDAR radar, nothing.

1:21And in fact, if you think about how human-stripe cars,

1:24humans are biological neural nets and we use eyes.

1:27So it's the eyes and biological neural nets.

1:30The analog is digital.

1:32The analog for digital is cameras and digital neural nets.

1:35It doesn't work remarkably well.

1:37But it has been quite difficult to do this because,

1:40in order to use that, in order for this to work,

1:43the car has to really be quite fully intelligent.

1:47As a subset, for example, it has to learn how to read everything

1:49and how to assess intention among drivers and pedestrians.

1:54So you're creating a baby artificial general intelligence to solve this.

2:00But this will obviously be extremely profound.

2:03And obviously I've talked about what about if you're all good into the broader question in a minute.

2:07But the average use of a passenger vehicle is only about 10 hours per week out of 100 hours.

2:14The point at which it is autonomous, I think you would see probably a third of the hours being used

2:18because it would be like a taxi.

2:20Maybe my guess is like 50 to 60 hours, which means that the utility of a passenger vehicle would increase by a factor of five.

2:29And this is gigantic.

2:31But we'll see. So that's the word motive.

2:33Then there's what people think I've certainly experienced online where you can ask it a question and ask for an essay or a picture or to understand a picture.

2:41And that is progressing rapidly.

2:43What I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is I've never seen any technology advanced faster than this.

2:49The artificial intelligence computer coming online appears to be increasing by a factor of 10 every six months.

2:56Like obviously that can't continue at such a high rate for forever or to exceed the best of the yearboats.

3:01But I've never seen anything like it.

3:03And this is why you see NVIDIA's market cap being so gigantic because they currently have the best neural net chips.

3:11I mean, I think the NVIDIA's market cap exceeds the GDP of Canada or something recently, and it was quite high.

3:16So, yeah, you know, it may go high, you know.

3:20The chip rush is bigger than any gold rush that has ever existed.

3:24So, and then there will also be robots, like humanoid robots,

3:28not just sort of industrial robots, we are of course familiar with you,

3:32use industrial robots, we use industrial robots every one does,

3:35but they are programmed explicitly and they don't walk around.

3:39But Tesla, for example, the optimist program is making a humanoid robot

3:44that is capable of doing, when we say anything, a human can do.

3:49I mean, I hope, I just hope the robots are nice to us, you know?

3:54We hope so too, you know, that the robots will be nice to us.

3:58And maybe, let's say, in this regard, because you are working on what can we

4:03expect of, let's say, support which is going to come, maybe also a little bit

4:09with regard to production, because in the Bausch connected world

4:13we were also discussing application of AI,

4:16gen AI into production in order to improve productivity,

4:21maybe a couple of thoughts on this one too.

4:26Well, the plus side of AI is that I think

4:29productivity will increase dramatically.

4:31So across every field, whether it be manual labor

4:34to supply chain logistics,

4:37there's already a lot of movement to use chatbots,

4:39like sophisticated chatbots for customer service,

4:42for example, a way they can answer,

4:44quite complex questions already.

4:46But I mean, I think we really are on the edge of

4:49one of the biggest technology revolution

4:51that has ever existed.

4:52You know, there's supposedly a sort of a Chinese curse,

4:55may you live in interesting times.

4:56Well, we live in the most interesting of times,

4:59the most interesting.

5:00And for a while, I was a little bit,

5:02I was making a bit depressed, frankly,

5:04because I was like, well, will they take over?

5:07Will we be useless?

5:08But then the way that I reconciled myself to this question

5:10was would I rather be alive to see AI apocalypse or not?

5:14I guess I'd like to see this.

5:16That's a good thought.

5:23That's a good thought because you mentioned it every six months, that's an exponential curve.

5:27Right? Exponential curves are beautiful.

5:29There's kind of a question, where does it ever end?

5:31Right? Do you see any end yet or will it go on for three, four, five years like this?

5:35Because then we talk hundred phones, right?

5:37A thousand phones of time.

5:39Yeah, that's why I said obviously.

5:41Yeah, I mean, you can't grow at that rate without quickly exceeding the mass of the universe.

5:47So clearly, it's going to hit some constraints.

5:50The constraints that AI compute, I'm very predictable.

5:53I've actually predicted this over a year ago.

5:55So over a year ago, the shortage was chips, neural net chips.

5:58Then I was very easy to predict that the next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers.

6:03So you've got to feed the power to these things.

6:06So if you've got 100 to 300 kilobolts coming out of your utility,

6:10and it's got to step all the way down to 0.6 volts.

6:13That's a lot of stepping down.

6:15So now we're going to step down.

6:16And this is my not that funny joke,

6:19which is that they need transformers to run transformers.

6:22Because the AI is like, there's this thing called

6:24a transformer in AI.

6:25It's a neural, I don't know, it's a combination

6:28of sort of neural nets.

6:29And they're running out of transformers to run transformers.

6:31Then the next shortage will be electricity.

6:34So I think next year you'll see the electricity

6:36that just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips.

6:38I mean, during the chip crisis, we certainly all did have many contacts.

6:42Fortunately, we were able to master it together.

6:45Of course, we all would like to avoid a second chip crisis.

6:50But with regard to your comment on power demand, we all know today,

6:55vehicles have three to four kilowatt power demand for the peripherals.

7:01But this is continuously going up.

7:03And Tesla has recently launched the Simon truck,

7:07which I believe is mostly coming with 48 volt.

7:10Do you see this as a let's say,

7:12further disruption of automotive industry,

7:15another technology change within automotive.

7:19Yeah, I think, you know,

7:20the automotive industry has been living with 12 volts

7:22for a very long time, essentially roughly.

7:25I think it started off as six volts,

7:27and then they needed a more powerful starter voter,

7:31and then they doubled it to 12 volts.

7:33Although it's actually more like 13.7 volts.

7:36You're right. Absolutely. Yes.

7:38And the bus voltage actually varies a lot for those

7:41since the price of electrical engineers in the audience.

7:44Like 12 volts is a very rough approximation.

7:46But it's really kind of an arbitrary low voltage.

7:51And if you look at say power ethernet,

7:53it's running at 50 volts or roughly 48 volts.

7:56And we said it at 48 volts because anything really above that,

7:59you start to run into regulatory concerns.

8:01And power ethernet is like I said, roughly at that level.

8:04But the advantage of obviously quarter-blaying the voltage is that you could substantially reduce how much copper or conductor is used in the car.

8:12So you can use very small copper wires for roughly a quarter, not exactly a quarter, but roughly a quarter as much copper is needed for 48 bolts as 412.

8:24So I think it's a logical move. That's really the next step for the low voltage architecture for the car.

8:30I think ultimately long-term wall costs will be 48.

8:32It's interesting that many people love electric vehicles and want to have them,

8:37but some are harmed by a missing infrastructure.

8:40That would be the same, actually, as the iPhone.

8:42We will have lots of chips ready,

8:43but we will have the power to operate them.

8:46There's a race between infrastructure and technology right now.

8:49And you're also certain technology may win,

8:52which is a problem because, actually, infrastructure is a win.

8:55We should have all the infrastructure we need.

8:56Is that correct?

8:57Yeah, are you talking about charging infrastructure because and that kind of thing?

9:01Well, the reason Tesla developed the sort of global supercharger network was

9:06specifically to address that point in the point you're making,

9:09which is people need to be comfortable that they can travel long distances

9:12and charge their car wherever they go.

9:14Unfortunately, electricity is almost everywhere.

9:17And so it's not all not all that rare unless you're really far

9:20on the countryside or something.

9:22So yeah, you need the charging infrastructure and the electricity

9:27to charge electric cars.

9:28In fact, the simultaneous growth of electric cars and AI, both of which need electricity,

9:34both of which need voltage transformers, actually, I think, is creating a tremendous demand

9:39for electrical equipment and for electrical power generation.

9:42Maybe one more question, Elon, with regard to new vehicle designs coming to the market.

9:49Of course, you cannot share with us confidential secrets.

9:52But anyways, what are the things you believe, let's say, we will see over the next years

9:58in the market and maybe just a small comment.

10:01In Europe we see a shortage of affordable battery electric vehicles in the offerings

10:07because many people in Europe are only able to spend like 20,000, 25,000 euros for their

10:14vehicles.

10:15So what are the new vehicle types, vehicle designs you are thinking about at Tesla?

10:21Well, our next generation vehicle will be a low cost vehicle.

10:27Also, that is very focused on autonomy.

10:29Like I said, we really are getting to the point where the car can drive itself well.

10:34When you're in the US, I would recommend giving it, trying out our car and see how it works.

10:40It's remarkable, you know.

10:42As the AI gets better and better, it actually feels quite human-like in the way that it drives.

10:47It does things that you wouldn't expect a computer to do.

10:50It's not like a robot dancing, you know.

10:52It's like it feels smooth and intuitive.

10:55So our next generation vehicle,

10:57which we're quite far along on,

10:58is very much anticipating autonomy.

11:01And then of course, we've got some fun things as well

11:03like on the new Tesla roads,

11:06which we'll be able to do zero to 100 kilometers

11:10in under one second.

11:11Great, thank you very much.

11:12That's what we need.

11:14That's good news.

11:15That's a good space of fun stuff too, you know.

11:17That's the cherry on the cake.

11:20But it's fun.

11:21You're going to have fun stuff, too.

11:23Yeah.

11:23Right.

11:24Well, that's very good news, because in the end,

11:25there's a lot of people here in the room that's still

11:27on their list to buy an electric vehicle,

11:29and you just announced something which they probably

11:31want to buy.

11:32So thank you very much.

11:34Thank you very much.

11:35And thank you extremely for 15 years of partnership

11:39and work together.

11:40We're inspired always by your speed, attitude,

11:42and graphite and things come out.

11:44Thank you very much, Jina Must.

11:45All right.

11:46And thank you for your support.

11:47We're very much appreciated.