我们为 FSD 模拟了整个世界：马斯克 2021 访谈

0:00Welcome, big hander, Elon Musk. Thank you. Action. Oh, how are you? Good. Fantastic. We have found it. We have two days of AI and Gen AI and what-so-ver, but you look real. My head is very big on the screen. I had a reality too, please. We have had so much talk about AI in these two days, so we need your opinion.

0:26What do you think about the next five to ten years on AI? Please give us a view artificial insemination But try try audience and I say Yes artificial intelligence is It's certainly a profoundly changed world. One most significant ways is self-driving So we've been putting a lot of effort into self-driving Technology or cars you don't see it quite as much in Europe because we first have to make it work in the US before we

0:57we increased the complexity of trying to make it elsewhere in the world. But I think we're quite close to having the car be fully autonomous. So for example, like right now, I'm in Austin, and if I went to drive, say to the airport, the car could take me to the airport with no interventions.

1:13Using and all it's using are digital neural nets, in other words, artificial intelligence and cameras. So there's no LIDAR radar, nothing. And in fact, if you think about how human-stripe cars, humans are biological neural nets and we use eyes. So it's the eyes and biological neural nets.

1:30The analog is digital. The analog for digital is cameras and digital neural nets. It doesn't work remarkably well. But it has been quite difficult to do this because, in order to use that, in order for this to work, the car has to really be quite fully intelligent. As a subset, for example, it has to learn how to read everything and how to assess intention among drivers and pedestrians.

1:54So you're creating a baby artificial general intelligence to solve this. But this will obviously be extremely profound. And obviously I've talked about what about if you're all good into the broader question in a minute. But the average use of a passenger vehicle is only about 10 hours per week out of 100 hours.

2:14The point at which it is autonomous, I think you would see probably a third of the hours being used because it would be like a taxi. Maybe my guess is like 50 to 60 hours, which means that the utility of a passenger vehicle would increase by a factor of five. And this is gigantic.

2:31But we'll see. So that's the word motive. Then there's what people think I've certainly experienced online where you can ask it a question and ask for an essay or a picture or to understand a picture. And that is progressing rapidly. What I'm seeing in terms of AI compute is I've never seen any technology advanced faster than this.

2:49The artificial intelligence computer coming online appears to be increasing by a factor of 10 every six months. Like obviously that can't continue at such a high rate for forever or to exceed the best of the yearboats. But I've never seen anything like it. And this is why you see NVIDIA's market cap being so gigantic because they currently have the best neural net chips.

3:11I mean, I think the NVIDIA's market cap exceeds the GDP of Canada or something recently, and it was quite high. So, yeah, you know, it may go high, you know. The chip rush is bigger than any gold rush that has ever existed. So, and then there will also be robots, like humanoid robots, not just sort of industrial robots, we are of course familiar with you, use industrial robots, we use industrial robots every one does, but they are programmed explicitly and they don't walk around.

3:39But Tesla, for example, the optimist program is making a humanoid robot that is capable of doing, when we say anything, a human can do. I mean, I hope, I just hope the robots are nice to us, you know? We hope so too, you know, that the robots will be nice to us. And maybe, let's say, in this regard, because you are working on what can we

4:03expect of, let's say, support which is going to come, maybe also a little bit with regard to production, because in the Bausch connected world we were also discussing application of AI, gen AI into production in order to improve productivity, maybe a couple of thoughts on this one too.

4:26Well, the plus side of AI is that I think productivity will increase dramatically. So across every field, whether it be manual labor to supply chain logistics, there's already a lot of movement to use chatbots, like sophisticated chatbots for customer service, for example, a way they can answer, quite complex questions already.

4:46But I mean, I think we really are on the edge of one of the biggest technology revolution that has ever existed. You know, there's supposedly a sort of a Chinese curse, may you live in interesting times. Well, we live in the most interesting of times, the most interesting. And for a while, I was a little bit, I was making a bit depressed, frankly, because I was like, well, will they take over?

5:07Will we be useless? But then the way that I reconciled myself to this question was would I rather be alive to see AI apocalypse or not? I guess I'd like to see this. That's a good thought. That's a good thought because you mentioned it every six months, that's an exponential curve.

5:27Right? Exponential curves are beautiful. There's kind of a question, where does it ever end? Right? Do you see any end yet or will it go on for three, four, five years like this? Because then we talk hundred phones, right? A thousand phones of time. Yeah, that's why I said obviously.

5:41Yeah, I mean, you can't grow at that rate without quickly exceeding the mass of the universe. So clearly, it's going to hit some constraints. The constraints that AI compute, I'm very predictable. I've actually predicted this over a year ago. So over a year ago, the shortage was chips, neural net chips.

5:58Then I was very easy to predict that the next shortage will be voltage step-down transformers. So you've got to feed the power to these things. So if you've got 100 to 300 kilobolts coming out of your utility, and it's got to step all the way down to 0.6 volts. That's a lot of stepping down.

6:15So now we're going to step down. And this is my not that funny joke, which is that they need transformers to run transformers. Because the AI is like, there's this thing called a transformer in AI. It's a neural, I don't know, it's a combination of sort of neural nets. And they're running out of transformers to run transformers.

6:31Then the next shortage will be electricity. So I think next year you'll see the electricity that just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips. I mean, during the chip crisis, we certainly all did have many contacts. Fortunately, we were able to master it together. Of course, we all would like to avoid a second chip crisis.

6:50But with regard to your comment on power demand, we all know today, vehicles have three to four kilowatt power demand for the peripherals. But this is continuously going up. And Tesla has recently launched the Simon truck, which I believe is mostly coming with 48 volt. Do you see this as a let's say, further disruption of automotive industry, another technology change within automotive.

7:19Yeah, I think, you know, the automotive industry has been living with 12 volts for a very long time, essentially roughly. I think it started off as six volts, and then they needed a more powerful starter voter, and then they doubled it to 12 volts. Although it's actually more like 13.7 volts.

7:36You're right. Absolutely. Yes. And the bus voltage actually varies a lot for those since the price of electrical engineers in the audience. Like 12 volts is a very rough approximation. But it's really kind of an arbitrary low voltage. And if you look at say power ethernet, it's running at 50 volts or roughly 48 volts.

7:56And we said it at 48 volts because anything really above that, you start to run into regulatory concerns. And power ethernet is like I said, roughly at that level. But the advantage of obviously quarter-blaying the voltage is that you could substantially reduce how much copper or conductor is used in the car.

8:12So you can use very small copper wires for roughly a quarter, not exactly a quarter, but roughly a quarter as much copper is needed for 48 bolts as 412. So I think it's a logical move. That's really the next step for the low voltage architecture for the car. I think ultimately long-term wall costs will be 48.

8:32It's interesting that many people love electric vehicles and want to have them, but some are harmed by a missing infrastructure. That would be the same, actually, as the iPhone. We will have lots of chips ready, but we will have the power to operate them. There's a race between infrastructure and technology right now.

8:49And you're also certain technology may win, which is a problem because, actually, infrastructure is a win. We should have all the infrastructure we need. Is that correct? Yeah, are you talking about charging infrastructure because and that kind of thing? Well, the reason Tesla developed the sort of global supercharger network was

9:06specifically to address that point in the point you're making, which is people need to be comfortable that they can travel long distances and charge their car wherever they go. Unfortunately, electricity is almost everywhere. And so it's not all not all that rare unless you're really far on the countryside or something.

9:22So yeah, you need the charging infrastructure and the electricity to charge electric cars. In fact, the simultaneous growth of electric cars and AI, both of which need electricity, both of which need voltage transformers, actually, I think, is creating a tremendous demand for electrical equipment and for electrical power generation.

9:42Maybe one more question, Elon, with regard to new vehicle designs coming to the market. Of course, you cannot share with us confidential secrets. But anyways, what are the things you believe, let's say, we will see over the next years in the market and maybe just a small comment.

10:01In Europe we see a shortage of affordable battery electric vehicles in the offerings because many people in Europe are only able to spend like 20,000, 25,000 euros for their vehicles. So what are the new vehicle types, vehicle designs you are thinking about at Tesla? Well, our next generation vehicle will be a low cost vehicle.

10:27Also, that is very focused on autonomy. Like I said, we really are getting to the point where the car can drive itself well. When you're in the US, I would recommend giving it, trying out our car and see how it works. It's remarkable, you know. As the AI gets better and better, it actually feels quite human-like in the way that it drives.

10:47It does things that you wouldn't expect a computer to do. It's not like a robot dancing, you know. It's like it feels smooth and intuitive. So our next generation vehicle, which we're quite far along on, is very much anticipating autonomy. And then of course, we've got some fun things as well like on the new Tesla roads, which we'll be able to do zero to 100 kilometers in under one second.

11:11Great, thank you very much. That's what we need. That's good news. That's a good space of fun stuff too, you know. That's the cherry on the cake. But it's fun. You're going to have fun stuff, too. Yeah. Right. Well, that's very good news, because in the end, there's a lot of people here in the room that's still on their list to buy an electric vehicle, and you just announced something which they probably want to buy.

11:32So thank you very much. Thank you very much. And thank you extremely for 15 years of partnership and work together. We're inspired always by your speed, attitude, and graphite and things come out. Thank you very much, Jina Must. All right. And thank you for your support. We're very much appreciated.