Tesla 2022 年度股东大会

0:12Welcome.

0:16Well, I feel welcome.

0:34So, well, it's great to see everyone here.

0:37Welcome.

0:40So, yeah, welcome to giga Texas.

0:53All right.

1:03So, let's see.

1:04I'll go over kind of recount the year.

1:06It's been an amazing year.

1:07an amazing year, the Tesla team has done amazing work.

1:11And I have to say, one of the things that,

1:14it's like what do you enjoy most in life?

1:16I really, being able to work with a super talented group

1:20of people and to create great products

1:23and manufacture those products and deliver them to people

1:26and make people happy from those products

1:30is that's one of the best things in life.

1:33So, yeah, I'd just like to say what an honor it is

1:44who work with such a talented team at Tesla,

1:46and that's the reason we've been able to do all these things.

1:49So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million

1:55vehicle run rate by the end of the year.

1:57Yeah.

1:58Whoa.

1:59Whoa.

2:00Whoa.

2:05Whoa.

2:07This is the best crowd, I mean.

2:09Whoa.

2:10Whoa.

2:11Whoa.

2:12Whoa.

2:34Whoa.

2:35Whoa.

2:41I love you guys too.

2:42So anyway, thanks to the hard work of the Tesla team,

2:48we've already been able to achieve

2:49a one and a half million unit annualized run rate.

2:52And depending on how the rest of this year goes,

2:54we might get close to, or we'll get approximately

2:57at the one and a half million mark

3:01and be exiting the year at a two million unit run rate.

3:05And then also worth noting, just recently

3:08in the last few weeks, we made our three millionth car.

3:12So, you know, it's pretty wild to think like 10 years ago,

3:30where things were, you know, 10 years,

3:34August 2012,

3:38we'd made 2,500 roadsters,

3:43and I think maybe a couple hundred model S's-ish,

3:48but less than 3,000 cars.

3:51So 10 years ago, we made less than 3,000 cars.

3:55And here we stand 10 years later,

3:58having made over 3 million.

4:09And actually, this is one of the cleanest exponentials I've,

4:13you know, it looks like one of those sort of,

4:19business plan presentation things

4:21that doesn't actually come true,

4:23but you see it in the venture capital business plan

4:27situation, but it's actually true. That's the amazing part. And yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

4:44Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

4:49Yeah. Yeah. So, thank you. So, yeah, it's great here. I love California too to be frank.

5:02I'm gonna be clear.

5:04Yeah.

5:05Oh, come on.

5:08We got great teams in California and we got a great team in China and Shanghai and a great

5:18team in Berlin and Germany and Europe.

5:29And I know it's interesting to look at the cumulative profitability since inception.

5:36approximately tracks to sort of mental pain actually.

5:43It's a psychic damage.

5:50We're at Green Cove, approximately correct.

5:56But I'm just very proud of the fact that we've actually been able to produce more cash than

6:04we have spent and have positive retained earnings and be worth our salt, essentially.

6:11And that's a really big deal.

6:12It's very hard.

6:14So I mean, this is a big deal and I think it's going to go up from here.

6:35So you can see we obviously had some challenges there in 2017 and then a bit since then our

6:43our free cash flow generation has been very good

6:46and trending upwards.

6:49And this is really before autonomy really kicks in.

6:53We have an autonomy to some degree,

6:57but solving autonomy will really be an amplification

7:07of free cash flow to a degree that is,

7:11you run the numbers and it's like,

7:12wow, can it really be that crazy? But it could be that crazy. And, you know, this year I swear.

7:31We got anyone here in the FSD beta program?

7:41Sweet. Yeah, no, totally, totally, totally. Okay, well, I thought...

7:48I thought you might ask that.

7:55So it's 10.13 we've been working on for a while.

7:59And actually what sort of happened is we've made some pretty significant architectural improvements.

8:08So it's really going to be more than a 10.12 to 10.13 release.

8:13It might not speak too soon.

8:15It might qualify for 10.69.

8:20So it's got to earn that, obviously.

8:25You can't just throw that out, you know.

8:28But it's, it's, it's, there's a lot of, a lot of improvements.

8:35And especially in complex left turns.

8:41And yeah, we were, we're going to solve Chuck's turn.

8:44Yes, yes.

8:45100%.

8:46Absolutely.

8:51Absolutely. We have a lot of respectful valid criticism.

8:56And yeah, so I think we're at roughly 90% success rate with your turn.

9:05So we're almost at 100. So it's looking good.

9:11And yeah, so I'm hopeful it might be a week next week.

9:18So, yeah, two weeks.

9:31It's working well for me.

9:33So, yeah.

9:36It's in my two teams like working literally seven days a week and making major improvements.

9:47And it's really interesting because we're effectively solving an important aspect of

9:52artificial intelligence, real world AI, for self-driving, which when you think about it,

10:00it's what's needed to solve self-driving.

10:04Because how is the road system designed?

10:06It's designed for a biological neural net and eyes.

10:10And so naturally the thing that would therefore work, the silicon analog is cameras and silicon

10:17neural nets.

10:20And so sort of, sort of by accident we're actually solving an important and I think very

10:25useful element of artificial intelligence.

10:29And I definitely want people out there, you know, talented people are working on AI to

10:35consider working at Tesla because I think we're solving just a very important part of AI and

10:40one that can ultimately save millions of lives and prevent tens of millions of serious injuries

10:47by driving just in order of magnitude safer than people.

10:52And you know, there used to be a time back in the day where we'd have, yeah, this is super

10:57important.

10:58So, there used to be a time when we'd have elevator operators.

11:08It was normal to have elevator operators and have like a big relay and stuff.

11:11But you know every now and again you make a mistake and share somebody in half.

11:15So I'll be like, okay, then we went to automated elevators and you press the button and you

11:20go to your floor and it just works.

11:23And that's kind of how it's going to be in the future with cars.

11:26And yes.

11:34And then we'll have lots of interesting things to say on AI day at the end of next month.

11:38I'll leave that to next month, yeah.

11:41So, you know, when we started out here, obviously we were told electric cars were impossible

11:50and even if really if you could make an electric car with a couple hundred miles range, then

11:57nobody would buy it anyway because they people just love gasoline cars.

12:00So, you know, when we started out, it was dumb to start a car company and then dumb squared

12:07to do an electric car company.

12:10And we're told, yeah, you're never

12:12going to make money, et cetera.

12:13And we didn't for a while.

12:15But now we have the highest operating margin

12:18in the whole industry.

12:18So exactly.

12:32Exactly.

12:33It says there's not just the car company.

12:34It tells there's many companies in one.

12:36And we're as much as a software company

12:39as we are a hardware company.

12:41And that's really going to be obviously

12:43essential for the future.

12:44And software, both in the car and obviously

12:47with neural net training, but also software in the factory as well.

12:51So you can think of the factory as a giant cybernetic collective.

12:58So a factory is just an enormous cybernetic collective of humans and

13:02machines and software.

13:04And the better the software is, the better that cybernetic collective works.

13:09I don't think other OEMs think like that.

13:12But that's what it is.

13:16So, you know, there's a lot of talk of competition among electric vehicles, but really, the EVs

13:27are electric vehicles taking a market share from gasoline cars.

13:32So, yeah.

13:35And from a Tesla standpoint, we obviously welcome this and we're very excited to see

13:43that the big car companies are embracing electric vehicles.

13:48If you were to rewind their press releases

13:51to five years ago, that was not the case.

13:54They were not saying nice things about electric vehicles

13:57five years ago.

14:00But now I believe almost every major car company

14:04in the world has embraced electrification

14:07and agrees that it is the right path.

14:09And this is really what we set out to do with Tesla.

14:14It was not to get maximum market share or anything.

14:18It was really to try to get the, to show the auto industry

14:21that it was possible to go electric.

14:24And that if you made compelling electric cars,

14:25people would buy them.

14:27And that's what's happened.

14:30And I think that's really profound.

14:32So yeah.

14:42Also when our competitors advertise for electric vehicles

14:44every time they do that, our sales go up.

14:46So it's pretty funny.

14:54So yeah.

14:56But we have open sourced a lot of patents

14:58so they can use our patents for free.

15:00And so we're helping out.

15:01And I think it's sort of a mutual prosperity thing,

15:03and it's good.

15:05So yeah.

15:10So model Y. You definitely don't want to count chickens

15:15until they're hatched, but I think we're tracking to have Model Y be the highest of selling vehicle

15:23by revenue this year and the highest by unit volume next year.

15:28There's still a lot of work to do.

15:41Like these factories don't just magically work.

15:46So I still have a lot of work to do in Berlin and here in Austin to spool up these two giga

15:55factories and we've got different supply chains.

15:58So there's a host of problems.

16:01None of the problems are individually or not difficult but there's like 10,000 of them.

16:05So the rate of production is like how fast can you solve the 10,000 problems essentially.

16:11And we're solving pretty fast but a lot of work to do.

16:16And we might be able to announce another factory location later this year.

16:42Where should we...

16:43Okay, where should we build it?

16:49Okay, we've got a lot of Canada's.

17:01I'm half Canadian, so maybe I should.

17:07Well, I think, you know, ultimately we'll end up building, I don't know, probably at

17:11least 10 or 12 gigafactories.

17:16And there will be really gigafactories like output, you know, for average output of like

17:22one and a half to two million units per factory, which is enormous.

17:32And our Fremont factory in California is already the highest output factory in North

17:38America.

17:39So, sorry?

17:49Well, I think we'll have a friendly competition

17:53between Texas, California.

17:56Well, Shanghai is hard to be at half to say.

17:59Shanghai is pretty, Shanghai team is just awesome.

18:04So, yeah, there.

18:10Great team there.

18:11So, with respect to, you know, sometimes you get this sort

18:14of these bogus attacks of EVs are somehow worse than gasoline cars, which is not true.

18:22The average life cycle emissions of an EV are dramatically lower than that of a gasoline

18:26car.

18:27I'm kind of telling you things you already know.

18:29But every now and again you think surely this nonsense has been put to bed, but it pops

18:35up again.

18:36But it's obviously electric cars are dramatically lower CO2 lifetime than a gasoline car.

18:44So, anyway, that's kind of obvious.

18:46Now, this is a thing that I think is super cool.

18:49If you add up all the energy produced over the last 10 years

18:52by Tesla solar panels, it is more energy

18:58than was used to manufacture all of our cars

19:02and charge all of our cars at superchargers and at home.

19:06This is like, I mean, the mission of Tesla

19:20is to accelerate sustainability.

19:22And I think this is really amazing.

19:28More energy produced than was used in making the car

19:31or and charging them of billions of miles.

19:35And we're going to keep, obviously,

19:36increasing our solar activity and vehicles

19:40and try to keep these on par.

19:45Because the three elements of a sustainable energy future

19:49are sustainable energy production,

19:50primarily with solar and wind.

19:52and then stationary battery packs to store the sustainable energy because of its wind

19:58and solar intermittent and then electric transport.

20:03And if you have those three pillars, you have a fully sustainable future.

20:08And yeah, so that's, yeah.

20:17And obviously, battery packs are very recyclable.

20:22They are, you can think of it like high grade ore.

20:25If you want to crunch up a bunch of rocks or crunch up a battery pack, which is like super

20:31high grade ore.

20:32So it's a no brainer to recycle battery packs.

20:35And we are already recycling, I should point this out.

20:39Some people wonder what's happening.

20:40We're already recycling at over 50 a week in Nevada.

20:47So Tesla battery recycling is already underway, has been underway, and is scaling up.

20:53Now cars are lasting quite a long time, so there's not that many batteries to actually

20:57recycle because you kind of have to typically wait like 12 years or something.

21:02Quite a long time before the battery actually is no longer useful.

21:06It's sometimes 15 years.

21:09So recycling starts off small, but then it becomes very significant long term.

21:21Some factory footage, obviously.

21:3250 packs a week.

21:34Yeah.

21:35So, yeah, that's not a thing like this.

21:38Actually, just not that many packs to recycle

21:40because there's not the vast majority

21:43of them are still in use.

21:53Oh yes, exactly, that's what I'm saying.

21:55Where is that thing?

21:56Ah, so, um, so Mass Point 3 is gonna be

22:03fundamentally about scaling.

22:05Just looking at the overall problem from a global macro economic standpoint and saying,

22:15what are all the things that are needed to achieve a fully sustainable economy?

22:21Because I think a lot of people don't know.

22:25And really, what tonnage of lithium, of cathode, anode, separator, electrolyte, electronics,

22:39what are all the things that need to be done in order to transition to a fully sustainable

22:47global economy?

22:48Which I think the sooner we do that, the better for the planet.

22:53And I think just articulating that and just making it clear that this is absolutely doable

22:59and it is being done and we just want it to be done as fast as possible.

23:05I mean, I meet a lot of people out there who have lost hope.

23:12No, they think it's too late and they think there's no chance and the earth is doomed.

23:18It's not doomed.

23:21Yeah.

23:23Yeah.

23:35Both can and will be saved.

23:39Yeah.

23:47So, in addition to battery advancements and electronics advancements in AI, we've also done

23:56a lot to simplify the structure of cars to make it easier to manufacture.

24:01And one of the things we've done is create the largest castings that have ever been done,

24:07and the very complex castings.

24:09And so we're able to take 171 pieces of metal and go from 171 pieces to two.

24:16And in the process, make it lighter, stiffer, with better right handling, better noise vibration

24:23and harshness, better sealing against water.

24:27So it's really better in every way.

24:30And we're going to keep enhancing the casting.

24:43So this is a testament to our materials team and to our casting technology.

24:49So really rethinking the whole way in which a car is made.

24:54And it's a gigantic improvement.

24:58We have those points from going from say model S or even even model three.

25:07at about 30% of the robots used for Model 3, a current Model Y.

25:13So yeah.

25:21We've also improved the layout of the factory.

25:24So the factory is sort of a single, well, close to a single monolithic factory with a very

25:30straightforward flow.

25:32We do a lot in Fremont, but the flow is complex and it's not an easy flow.

25:40So we're really rethinking the factory.

25:44And I think the really long-term sustainable advantage

25:48of Tesla will be manufacturing.

25:51I mentioned this before, but obviously everyone

25:54will have electric cars.

25:55All manufacturers will have electric cars.

25:59And eventually, they'll take longer than they think,

26:03but eventually all cars will be self-driving.

26:07And the thing that would be hardest to replicate

26:10is Tesla's manufacturing technology.

26:14So this is actually very important

26:16for a long-term standpoint.

26:27When thinking about the competitiveness of companies,

26:33especially if the companies are technology companies,

26:38I recommend looking at where the smartest engineers

26:42want to work.

26:44This is, wherever the smartest engineers want to work,

26:48that's gonna be, that technology company

26:52is gonna be the one that is likely to succeed.

26:56Just like if it's a pro sports team,

26:57where are the ace players going?

26:59Okay, probably that team will win.

27:02So we put a lot of effort into ensuring

27:03that the best engineers in the world

27:05want to work at Tesla.

27:07And frankly, sometimes Tesla's number one,

27:10sometimes SpaceX's number one,

27:11So this is just like last year.

27:16And we do actually, for those curious, and maybe want to work at either SpaceX or Tesla,

27:21we do allow people to move from one company to the other if they would like.

27:25So if you want to spend a better time working on electric vehicles, but a time spent working

27:30on rockets, you can, that's cool, we sport that.

27:33So, yeah.

27:34And we also made a lot of improvement with factory safety.

27:44So I think we believe we now have the best factory safety

27:49in the industry.

27:50And so we're excited to have very good safety

27:59and getting better.

28:00So.

28:07And a bunch of this is driven by just encouraging people

28:10within the factory to submit ideas for safety improvement.

28:14And we've passed our goal of three suggestions per employee

28:20in this year.

28:22And this really is a game changer for improving safety.

28:27And, yeah.

28:32You don't have to cop after every slide,

28:34unless you really want to, but.

28:36But.

28:37Good.

28:42So we had this a lot of interest in working at Tesla

28:44with three million job applications last year.

28:47So, sorry?

28:51Yeah, it's true.

28:54So, a lot of interest in working at Tesla.

28:58Now, some people may occasionally have encountered

29:00a supercharger that didn't work,

29:02but in general, the uptime of our superchargers

29:06is extremely good.

29:07And we just try to make it super smooth,

29:09and because our superchargers are always connected,

29:13the car is always connected. Our feedback loop for fixing a supercharger is very quick.

29:19And obviously we keep upgrading the supercharger capability. We're now at version three. We'll

29:24start rolling out version four, I don't know, maybe next year. So the superchargers get

29:30better and better. You know, you notice that, yeah, actually I don't want to give away

29:36way that to...

29:37Let's just say that there's some cool stuff happening on the supercharging front.

29:44So...

29:45Alaska, yes.

29:51All right.

29:56We're basically doubling our supercharging count every year.

30:00So if there isn't a supercharger in some place that you think is important, it probably

30:05will be there soon.

30:07We've also made a lot of progress on safety, so our cars are already the safest in the industry,

30:17so we have the lowest probability of entry of any cars ever tested by the US government,

30:23and we update this in real time.

30:25So because our cars are connected, this is a big difference.

30:30All the other cars with rare exception are not connected.

30:35So the manufacturers don't really know what happened in a crash.

30:38But in the case of Tesla, we are able to look at crashes and see how can we improve the safety,

30:44look at the crashes, improve the crash structure.

30:52Also, we improve how the seat belts tension and how the airbags deploy.

30:59So in these updates, if we figure out, oh, there's a slightly better way to deploy the

31:03the airbags to improve the safety in a crash, we'll actually do an over-the-air update to

31:08improve the way that the airbags deploy or the way that the seat belt pretensions.

31:13And we're now starting to include our Tesla autopilot AI to be able to see if a crash is

31:22about to occur.

31:23And if it sees that a crash is about to occur with 99 plus percent probability, then it will

31:30activate the seat belt pretentioners and deploy the airbags as opposed to what the vast majority

31:37of cars do is the vast majority of cars are only able to deploy airbags when the crash

31:42is happening.

31:44And so that makes the airbag deployment a lot more violent, but if you can anticipate the

31:49crash, the airbag deployment can be much better than just impact.

31:56So, thank you.

32:07We'll see FST beta grow very rapidly.

32:12And this is definitely going to go very exponential in miles driven.

32:16So we're now at over 40 million miles.

32:20And I suspect by this year we'll be, I don't know, well over 100 million miles.

32:28And we're still tracking very much to have widespread deployment of FSD beta this year

32:36in North America.

32:38So I'm, I should say, if basically FSD beta will be available to anyone who requests it

32:50by the end of this year.

33:00So AIDI Part 2, I think people are blown away, but that's the end of next month.

33:08So believe that, it's going to be a lot of cool stuff.

33:18I'm surprised that people, or at least analysts out there, are not really understanding the

33:24importance of the optimist robot.

33:29My guess is optimists will be more valuable than the car long term.

33:39In fact, it will, I think, turn the whole notion of what's an economy on its head.

33:44It's the point of which you have no shortage of labor.

33:50An economy is GDP per capita.

33:53If you don't have a capital constraint, then the economy can be arbitrarily huge.

34:00So it's sort of crazy.

34:04Anyway, thank you for voting.

34:09So your vote matters and it's great to have direct contact with individual shareholders.

34:16And thank you for voting to support our proposals.

34:29So the next decade, I wonder how many cars we'll have in 10 years.

34:4510 years ago we had less than 3,000 cars.

34:47Now we've made 300 million.

35:01I say 100 million is pretty doable.

35:04So, I'd be surprised if it's not over 100 million in 10 years.

35:14And then many other products, some of which you've heard about, some of which you have

35:23not.

35:29So, yeah, bled it out.

35:31All right.

35:32So, we've got some questions from the internet that were voted to the top.

35:38So I'll answer these questions and then we'll take just questions from the audience.

35:42And so one of the questions is how does Tesla intend to utilize cash in the coming years?

35:48Will we increase CapEx?

35:51I guess you can read the question.

35:53Share buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions?

35:55Well, it's interesting.

35:58Tesla has actually done very few acquisitions.

36:00Apart from the Solar City acquisition, it was the only really big acquisition we did, and

36:04the next largest would be Tesla, Gromen.

36:08But it's actually used a remarkably small amount of its equity to do acquisitions compared

36:15to other companies.

36:16The vast majority of our growth, basically 90% of our growth, has been organic, which I

36:22think is actually a really good thing.

36:26But if we do see interesting companies, we will acquire them, but it's quite rare for

36:33us to acquire a company.

36:37But we are interested in companies that are very good at manufacturing automation, software,

36:44AI, manufacturing technology in general, that kind of thing.

36:50We certainly will increase CAPEX.

36:53We are actually spending CAPEX money and R&D money as fast as we can do so without wasting

37:02it.

37:03is not a constraint.

37:06If we try to spend it any faster,

37:08we'll just be wasting money.

37:09So we're cranking hard on CapEx and R&D.

37:17Depending on what our future cash flow looks like,

37:21I think a sort of share buyback is possible.

37:25I wouldn't want to commit to that.

37:26But well, let's just make sure that there's

37:32not some forced majeure event somewhere. I think we want to make sure we have plenty

37:40of capital and that future cash flow is looking very solid and the world is relatively stable

37:47and then I think share about buyback is on the table. So how many factories are necessary

38:00to achieve 20 million vehicles, I think probably roughly a dozen.

38:06So we're aiming for one and a half to two million units per factory.

38:13Now our factory in California, we're just running out of room, so it's hard to get more

38:19than maybe 700 or 800,000 vehicles a year out of there.

38:27But most places will be aiming for one and a half to two.

38:33So it doesn't cite.

38:39Although we are aiming for giant monolithic buildings.

38:50Savatruck pricing, it was unveiled in 2019 and the reservation was $99.

38:58So you know, things have a lot has changed since then.

39:05So the specs and the pricing will be different.

39:09I, you know, I sort of give a little bit of bad news, but I think there's no way to sort

39:14of have haven't anticipated quite the inflation that we've seen and the various issues.

39:21But what I can say is that the Cybertruck will be one hell of a product and it's going

39:25to be like a damn fine machine.

39:27So I'm not tracking to be in production middle of next year from this factory.

39:41So we're installing, we're going to be installing the production equipment, tooling and all,

39:47starting the next couple months, we'll begin the installation.

39:51So aiming to be in volume production in the middle of next year.

40:01Now what could possibly go wrong in answering this question?

40:06Oh man.

40:09All right, so I should just pass.

40:31Well, let me just say that I hope for peace and respect.

40:39Fair enough.

41:02Yeah.

41:07Yeah, good advice.

41:13So we're deploying superchargers wherever we see the greatest need.

41:20Now sometimes the greatest need is in some place that is extremely difficult to get permits.

41:27Like the getting a permit in Malibu was nuts.

41:32Like the next level that took years.

41:37And so some places are hard to get permits and some places are easier.

41:43But we are aiming to just generally analyze the supercharger usage every day and we prioritize

41:51our supercharger locations according to where we see the greatest need.

41:56With respect?

41:57Sorry, why?

41:58Well, you know, maybe we should do an online poll for where is it?

42:03Where should we put superchargers?

42:06Yeah.

42:07That's good.

42:08Okay, we'll do that.

42:13So with respect to amenities with superchargers,

42:17I think we'll do a couple of just fun things.

42:22Like we're going to do a really fun supercharger location

42:25in LA.

42:27And the general vision is to have something

42:29that's like a futuristic kind of like diner,

42:33sort of like, I don't know, Blade Runner meets Greece,

42:39meets Jetsons.

42:40Yeah.

42:41Yeah, something cool.

42:42different, but with some style, and where you can get some great food.

42:49And we're planning to have these big screens at the Supercharge location, and the screens

42:57will be aiming to show the 100 greatest movie clips of all time.

43:03So you can have a Teethberger and a charger car and watch some cool stuff on the screen.

43:11And it'll be open to others who are not, you know,

43:15you can come to the restaurant even if you don't own a Tesla.

43:17But it'll be like a little gem, I think, there in LA.

43:21And then depending on how that goes, we'll, you know,

43:24we might roll that out to a few other places.

43:27We will try to do interesting, fun things that are not

43:30necessarily economically sensible, but they're cool.

43:33So 4680, this is not an easy one to answer.

43:51We are making a decent number every week and I think we will be in high volume production

44:03by the end of this year.

44:05It's always difficult to predict.

44:06This is because a lot of new technology,

44:08what's the slope of the S-curve on-ramp?

44:10And except that I'm confident we will get to the high production

44:15rate, but it's probably the end of this year

44:19before we get confidently to a high production rate.

44:23But this does not affect our vehicle output.

44:25We actually have enough battery cell supply

44:32from suppliers to make one and a half million cars this year.

44:37So it's not a constraint on output,

44:40but it will be important for next year.

44:45And a new mass plan is not yet ready.

44:50I don't know, maybe I aim to get it done this month.

44:53But like I said, it's going to be just looking

44:56at the big picture.

44:57What does it take to make Earth fully self-sustaining

45:01from an energy standpoint?

45:03And yeah, just map it out and say this is what needs to be done.

45:09Tesla will try to be as useful as possible in this regard.

45:12And hopefully, lots of other companies

45:14can join in and help accelerate the sustainable energy

45:18revolution.

45:29With peak inflation behind us.

45:31So the inflation question is interesting,

45:33because we do get a fair bit of insight

45:37into where prices of things are going over time.

45:42Because when you're making millions of cars,

45:46you have to purchase commodities many months

45:51in advance of when they're needed.

45:53So you need to tell, because it's a very long supply chain

45:57with a tremendous amount of inertia.

45:58So we sort of have some insight into where prices are headed

46:04over time.

46:05And the interesting thing that we're seeing now

46:08is that most of our commodities,

46:12most of the things that go into a Tesla, not all,

46:14but I don't know, more than half,

46:17the prices are trending down in six months,

46:20six months from now.

46:21Now this could change, obviously,

46:22but the trend is down, which suggests

46:25that we are past peak inflation.

46:30Now making macroeconomic prognostications

46:33is a recipe for disaster.

46:37But my guess is that we're past peak inflation

46:44and that we will have a recession.

46:50I think it will be a relatively mild recession.

46:54Sort of just guess in here.

46:56This is total speculation.

47:00But I guess it's a mild recession for, I don't know,

47:0518 months or something like that.

47:09It would be my best guess right now.

47:11We don't have fundamental capital misallocations

47:15in the US as we have had in the past,

47:19like leading up to 2008, where we were building primary housing

47:22units at twice the rate of household formation,

47:26which obviously doesn't make sense.

47:29And a lot of companies that were over-levered.

47:33The leverage or debt that companies have right now

47:36is relatively low.

47:39So yeah, I would say probably mild moderate recession,

47:45maybe 18 months-ish.

47:48And I think inflation is going to drop rapidly.

47:54That's my guess.

47:56I don't know what do you guys think.

47:59Exactly.

48:00It's not about right?

48:02Okay, great.

48:04All right, cool.

48:08Yeah, the Tesla robot essentially changing the economy,

48:11like how can we base an economy on automation AI

48:14with the full self driving that's being implemented.

48:17You're going to have a full fleet of vehicles

48:19that can drive themselves, you know, how these robots

48:20that can go into your vehicle and place things.

48:23Will you be moving to a rental model

48:26or how we base a Tesla model on selling cars

48:30whenever these cars are fully automated,

48:32you can drive wherever they would like,

48:33and hopefully would be applicable

48:36to having multiple people use the vehicle

48:38instead of just one person.

48:41Yeah, so it's interesting to think about an autonomous car

48:45because when you drive around,

48:49look at how many cars are parked.

48:51Like they're just parking lots full of cars everywhere

48:54because cars need a driver,

48:57And so most of the time they're doing nothing.

49:01Typically a passenger car is going to be like 12 hours a week

49:04or something like that of usage.

49:08After autonomous, maybe it can get to 50 or 60 hours of usage.

49:14Then that's sort of four or fivefold improvements

49:18in the utility of a car.

49:23But the interesting thing is that the car still costs the same.

49:26So in that scenario, at least for some period of time,

49:32the effect of gross margin on an autonomous car

49:37is kind of boggles the mind.

49:42So in terms of how the cause be operated,

49:47I mean I think it would be,

49:52you'd have the option of owning a car,

49:57using a car just occasionally when you need it,

49:59like an auto Uber or something like that.

50:04And there would be people, and then an owner of a car

50:06could decide that they want to use their car

50:08or they want to add or subtract it to the fleet.

50:12So I think it would end up being some kind of combination

50:15of like Airbnb and Uber or something like that.

50:19So sometimes you can go all the way from owning it

50:22to renting it sometimes to renting it a lot

50:25to completely renting it.

50:30But the utility of the car will just be mind-blowingly great.

50:35And then, like I said, optimists will really bring the future to now.

50:41So, yeah, maybe.

50:50Maybe you could rent optimists out hourly.

50:52I mean, assuming we get all these things,

51:02we do all these things, I think probably Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

51:07You know, we all know how the media treats you.

51:20So well.

51:20Yeah.

51:21So I don't have a question for you today.

51:24I just want to say on behalf of my six-year-old at home,

51:27Kyler Scott, that's watching right now, who

51:29thinks you're awesome as well, thank you

51:32for making the world a better place.

51:34Thank you.

52:07Love you guys.

52:08I mean, I just like to say, thank you

52:10for helping make it happen.

52:12Because without you, without the early adopters of electric vehicles and sort of full self-driving,

52:20Tesla would not be where it is today.

52:22So thank you for your support.

52:30What a presentation.

52:31Thank you, Tesla team.

52:32It's an honor to be a stockholder.

52:34Elon, I brought you the final checkpoint for SpaceX and Mini Moon.

52:38Maybe little X can play with it.

52:40My name is David Guaharda.

52:41I'm a former Bronzewill resident.

52:42My first suggestion is to add a new string mode option where the driver can select lazy

52:48mode and have the software accommodate between comfort, standard and sport modes depending

52:53on the speed the car is going. This will increase handling and safety. Second, when disengaging

53:00out of pilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it. Last one. Weeks

53:07ago, talking to Mr. San Patil at Starbase, I told him that the teams should add a tab

53:12in the SpaceX website and disclose what type of skills and preparation are going to be needed

53:18from us to accomplish the greatest adventure ever, ever in human history going to Mars.

53:24All right, well, thanks for the suggestions. Those are good suggestions. Thank you. All

53:31right. Sure. Hi, so I do actually have a question, but one thing that I want to ask is like,

53:41People ask you all the questions.

53:43What do you think people miss and should be excited

53:47way more about?

53:49And what do you think people are fretting way too much

53:52about and shouldn't be worried at all?

53:56Yeah, that's actually a good point.

53:59I think actually the questions and ideas posed by retail

54:08investors, like small retail investors,

54:10like I think many of you in the audience,

54:12are actually the most insightful.

54:15And I find it remarkable that essentially amateur,

54:20normal everyday people actually understand Tesla better

54:24than the analysts.

54:25I mean, how much you must see this is.

54:27It's like, and I mean, I think really say,

54:36well, what's the point of a company is to create useful

54:41products and services.

54:43The company should not exist in and of itself.

54:46It exists.

54:47It's a group of people gathered together

54:49to make products and services.

54:51And if those products and services are great,

54:54it's a valuable and useful company.

54:55And if they're not, it's not.

54:57And so really, to understand a company,

54:59you must use its products.

55:01And if you think the products are great,

55:02then the company's great.

55:04That's it.

55:05That's how it is.

55:07And so I think ironically, a lot of the people

55:10that sort of professional analysts don't drive Teslas.

55:13So like, well, okay, you know, maybe you should.

55:17Yeah, cool.

55:20I mean, we aim to make Tesla the most amount of fun

55:23you can have in a car, you know?

55:25So.

55:26Thank you.

55:27Thank you.

55:28Thank you.

55:30Yeah, so let's see.

55:31So I think that there are a lot of really good

55:34and it's high flight is that I see on the internet,

55:39Twitter and whatnot.

55:40And oh, yeah, Twitter.

55:43So, yeah, so let's see.

56:02I think sometimes people fret a bit too much about short-term things that which are clearly

56:07just bumps in the road type of thing where there might be a supplier shortage or some

56:17shut down in some part of the world. But really those things are clearly just one

56:25off items and don't really matter for the long term. The trend, like looking at the cumulative

56:38of output and cumulative miles driven.

56:41And you can see that cumulative output

56:43is a very clean exponential.

56:48And so I guess sometimes people fret a little bit too much

56:52about this quarter or that quarter.

56:54But if you're a shareholder, a company

56:57is really like the net present value of future cash flows.

57:00And so one quarter is not really a big deal.

57:04I think if you see people panicking,

57:08then instead of saying, oh man, my stock's gone down.

57:13This is a buying opportunity.

57:14Yeah.

57:15Hi, Elon.

57:23Thanks for the meeting.

57:25I became a Marine because I want to help protect your future

57:27based on Mars.

57:29My friends and I are trained, and we support the mission.

57:32Would you be open to this idea?

57:34Yeah.

57:35Space Marines, absolutely.

57:47Hi, Elon.

57:48A lot of Tesla's products today focus on electrical energy

57:51for sustainable future.

57:53Do you foresee Tesla perhaps exploring thermal energy

57:59sustainable products other than HVAC?

58:01Like say, for example, in this Giger factory,

58:03taking the residual heat from the Giger presses

58:05and applying them to see the drying up

58:07in your paint line.

58:10Yeah, I think getting dual use of like,

58:13dual use of like, if you use electricity to do something and then it generates heat and

58:19then you transporting that heat elsewhere with the factory, it's probably a good idea

58:23to do that actually. It is a, sort of I would say a future optimization, but it is probably

58:30something worth doing in the factory and it is something we do in the car. So in the car

58:34we carefully manage the electrical and the thermal energy and so like one of the ways

58:40that we achieve a long range in cold weather is by both charging the pack and heating the

58:48pack. And then the pack acts as both an electrical and a thermal reservoir to achieve long range

58:54even in very cold climates. And so we're constantly, within the car, shuttling heat back and forth

59:01between motor dryer electronics pack and the cabin volume. So that same concept should be

59:08applied to a factory, I agree.

59:16Elon wassup, and my name is Justin.

59:19Some know me as SMD capital on Twitter.

59:22I had the number one voted question last earnings

59:26about scaling to extreme size.

59:28I have another big question I think a lot of people

59:31would want to know.

59:32In regards to when would Tesla launch their first pilot city

59:37for the Tesla network, the Robotaxy business?

59:46Well, you see, I think it's actually going to be probably much more widespread than that,

59:51because Tezla is developing a general solution for self-driving, and it's not really specific

59:59to one city or location.

1:00:01Now, there's different regulatory requirements in various cities and states, so some locations

1:00:08will offer regulatory approval sooner than others.

1:00:12But we are aiming for a general solution.

1:00:17And in fact, if you created a randomly generated, alternate Earth, our system would still work.

1:00:30Like literally, you know, like you had some sort of computer generated Earth that, you know,

1:00:36the same rules as current Earth. Our system is sufficiently generalized that it would work

1:00:42in a computer-generated alternate Earth. So, yeah. So anyway.

1:00:55So, I'm Gary Black, managing partner of the Future of Fund, Tesla's our largest position.

1:01:10It's probably the thing we worry about most.

1:01:12It's not PR, but it's succession.

1:01:18So, you know, key man risk is a big thing.

1:01:21How does the board think about your succession?

1:01:24And especially when you have, you know, a judge is going

1:01:28to decide in a couple months whether or not you have

1:01:30to take over Twitter?

1:01:31How would you split your time?

1:01:33Well, I think Tesla is definitely gathering a lot

1:01:41momentum and we have a very exciting product roadmap that will last a long time.

1:01:51So now obviously execution against that roadmap is difficult because these are not simple products,

1:01:57they're not copies of what anyone else is doing, they're new things.

1:02:02So, but I intend to stay with Tesla as long as I can be useful.

1:02:09And, you know, I can be most useful, I think, on the product design and manufacturing.

1:02:15So, basically factory design, product design, and sort of manufacturing optimization.

1:02:24So, and we do have a very talented team here.

1:02:30So I think Telser would continue to do very well even if I was kidnapped by aliens.

1:02:41Or went back to my home planet maybe.

1:02:50So yeah, I think it's a good question.

1:02:54And to be frank, I don't have an easy answer.

1:02:58Open to ideas.

1:03:00I'm definitely working as hard as I can.

1:03:03And I'm very excited about the future of the company.

1:03:07And I think it's got a very bright future, even without me.

1:03:14So I'm not leaving, so to be clear.

1:03:18So I obviously have to be a little careful about what I

1:03:28say with about Twitter because, you know, this is like lawsuit and stuff.

1:03:35So sometimes people get bent out of shape.

1:03:40But I do use Twitter a lot.

1:03:42So it's not like I would, unlike randomly going around wanting to acquire companies or

1:03:48something.

1:03:49I'm not a hedge fund or private equity firm or something.

1:03:52So in fact, the only two publicly traded securities I own are Tesla and Twitter.

1:03:58it. So, and I think in the case of Twitter, since I use it a lot, I share myself in the

1:04:07foot a lot, you know, take my grave, et cetera. But, you know, I think it's, I do understand

1:04:17the product quite well, so I think I've got a good sense of where to point the engineering

1:04:24team Twitter to make it radically better.

1:04:31And I do sort of have a grander vision for what I thought X.com or X corporation could

1:04:43have been back in the day.

1:04:47It's a pretty grand vision.

1:04:50And obviously that could be started from scratch.

1:04:54And I think Twitter would help accelerate that by three to five years.

1:05:00So it's kind of like something I thought would be quite useful for a long time.

1:05:08I know what to do.

1:05:11Don't have to have Twitter for that, but it's probably at least a three-year accelerant.

1:05:18And I think it's something that will be very useful to the world.

1:05:21How's it going, Elon? My name is Arane, and with the projected release of the RoboTaxi

1:05:34coming in the years ahead, would it be looked at as the boring company, would it be used

1:05:41to get regulation for full self-driving and would it be a good venue for the RoboTaxi?

1:05:46Also my little brother Zane says hi, owns all Tassaha wheels.

1:05:50Okay, cool. I said hi to him back.

1:05:54So yeah, the boring company is making good progress actually.

1:06:02And for the longest time, I'd give a talk somewhere and people say, what are opportunities

1:06:06you know about?

1:06:07I was like, tunnels!

1:06:08And they'd be like, for five years I said, if somebody could just do a tunneling company,

1:06:14we can solve traffic and we can have also very high speed transport between cities.

1:06:21Because while I'm a fan of trains, and I like high-speed trains, they do intersect the,

1:06:26you know, go through towns and neighborhoods and chop people's property in half and they're

1:06:30very loud.

1:06:31So, but I want to be clear, I'm pro-train, one of those train people, you know.

1:06:38I take every opportunity to go on interesting trains.

1:06:43So, but if you have a sort of a much simplified version of the Hyperloop, it's really just

1:06:50Tesla's in a tunnel that's depressurized, you can go between cities super fast and without

1:06:57disrupting the stuff above ground.

1:07:01So that's kind of the vision for the boring company is to make roads 3D and have sort of

1:07:10an arbitrary number of layers of roads.

1:07:18And I think you can solve essentially any traffic problem in any city if you go 3D with

1:07:25tunnels, so multiple areas of tunnels going from connecting the city.

1:07:31And you can also turn a lot of the streets into parks because you won't need to have

1:07:36cars in the doors, you won't need parking.

1:07:39So I think, Warren Company, I think is capable of much more transformation than it may seem.

1:07:46And we actually have an operational tunnel in Vegas right now.

1:07:50So yeah, if you go to Vegas, go to a resorts world and you can hop in the tunnel and go

1:07:56to the convention center and you're like, yeah, and you can paint those.

1:08:00Exactly.

1:08:01I'm doing what I can to support those.

1:08:10But yeah, I think Ford Company is going to do some pretty interesting things in the

1:08:14years to come.

1:08:15So let's see.

1:08:17Good afternoon, Elon.

1:08:18I think many people share my experience.

1:08:21I gave you, or at least Tesla, my complete family's legacy

1:08:25because I believed in it.

1:08:26And thank you for you and your company outperforming.

1:08:29I think you saved a lot of us.

1:08:30Thank you.

1:08:31OK.

1:08:36So my question is this.

1:08:38Commercial aircraft have something

1:08:40called ACAS where aircraft relate telemetry

1:08:42of their position between one another

1:08:44to a permanent collision.

1:08:45Yeah, sometimes too much telemetry.

1:08:48Yeah.

1:08:48Thank you.

1:08:50So, taking this to a higher level,

1:08:52do you see Tesla's communicating with one another,

1:08:55with one another, and Dojo turning into some kind

1:08:57of ultimate air traffic control for Tesla supply chains

1:09:00and Robotaxy, thank you.

1:09:02Actually, that's an interesting idea,

1:09:03I haven't thought about that.

1:09:05I mean, right now I'll go with Dojo,

1:09:07is just to be really good at video training.

1:09:11So, we actually already have, I think,

1:09:13the maybe the fourth, and maybe approaching the third,

1:09:16most powerful computing center in the world for AI training.

1:09:24Yeah, they might be through it at this point,

1:09:26which obviously uses just an enormous number of GPUs

1:09:28and stuff, so our first goal with Ojos

1:09:33to make it competitive and be more effective

1:09:36at neural net training than a whole bunch of GPUs.

1:09:39And it might get their soon-ish.

1:09:48And then of course it can be used

1:09:49for many other neural net training tasks.

1:09:52It's a fundamentally, it's a computer design

1:09:54from the ground up to be optimized for neural net training,

1:09:57which really no computer has,

1:10:00that's never been done before.

1:10:03And yeah, so, and then maybe it'll do traffic control.

1:10:07I haven't really thought of that.

1:10:09The the Tesla is probably there will be some merits to communicating

1:10:15for for Tesla to communicate to each other

1:10:20But that won't be needed for full self-driving at all and for long for a long time the

1:10:26The vast majority of cars on the road will be manually driven so

1:10:30the value of

1:10:33Tesla to Tesla communication is is not that high except for perhaps communicating

1:10:37traffic issues or accidents, potholes, things that may be helpful to road closures and that

1:10:47kind of thing. So it's like you're getting real time. A Tesla head of view is seeing a

1:10:51road closure and you get that real time updated to your car so you don't get stuck in the road

1:10:56closure situation. That's the kind of stuff that I think we definitely are working on

1:11:02right now. All right. All right. We have one last question and it's yours. Thank you very

1:11:09much. Hello, Elon. Hey. Simply, I would just like to say thank you for everything you've

1:11:13done for Earth and the community and everything you've done. I have one question, and aside

1:11:18from working for Tesla, being a shareholder or purchasing a Tesla, how can the masses

1:11:23help push your vision.

1:11:28All right, well I think just generally encouraging sustainable energy and being supportive of

1:11:34that I think is really helpful.

1:11:38So I say you're doing great so far.

1:11:45You know like I said without your support tells the wouldn't be where it is.

1:11:50So as people like yourself and everyone in this room and out there and the three million

1:11:54people who have bought our cars and the millions who have gotten solar. That all really helps

1:12:03make the world a better place for the future. I'd like to convey a message of optimism about

1:12:13the future. If we work really hard to accelerate sustainable energy, sustainable transport,

1:12:21The future will be good, you know, and I think,

1:12:24just make sure people know that.

1:12:25Like, and I'm not suggesting complacency at all.

1:12:30I'm literally saying, if we work hard towards

1:12:32a sustainable future, we will achieve it.

1:12:34And the future was bright.

1:12:37So, all right.

1:12:45All right, thanks guys, thank you.

1:12:50Thank you.