股东会·中文精读

Tesla 2022 年度股东大会

2022 Annual Shareholder Meeting | Tesla

中文精读由 AI 基于原始视频与文稿改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原视频为准。说明

2012 年 8 月的某一天,特斯拉造出了它的第 2500 辆 Roadster。Model S 才刚交付,大概两百来辆。加起来,不到 3000 台车。

十年后,2022 年,这家公司下线了第 300 万辆。马斯克站在得州超级工厂的台上,看着那张累计产量的曲线图说了一句很实在的话:这条曲线长得特别像风险投资商业计划书里画出来、但从来不会成真的那种图。问题在于,它是真的。

这是 2022 年特斯拉股东大会。比起财报电话会,这场活动的信息密度更高,因为马斯克不用按稿子念,他把这一年的账、接下来几年的路,还有他心里真正在意的那几件事,一次性摊开了讲。下面挑重点说。

从 3000 到 300 万,年化产能已经摸到 150 万辆

先说交付。股东大会当时,特斯拉已经实现 150 万辆的年化产能,全年的目标是往 200 万辆的产能爬。这两个词得分开看:一个是已经跑出来的速率,一个是年底要冲到的位置。马斯克的说法是,今年大概会落在 150 万辆附近,年底出场时按 200 万辆的年化产能算。

累计下线 300 万辆这个数字,放在汽车工业史里算不上什么,通用、丰田、大众早就把九位数刻进历史了。放在电动车这个品类里,它的意义就完全不同:电动车第一次做到了以百万为单位的规模化生产,而且利润率不靠补贴撑着。

马斯克特意提了一句加州。当时得州工厂风头正劲,他还是讲了实话:加州有很棒的团队,上海有很棒的团队,柏林也有很棒的团队。这话的背景是特斯拉的重心正在从弗里蒙特往得州和柏林分散,他不想让外界觉得公司在抛弃发家的地方。

公司赚钱了,赚的像是“精神损失费”

股东大会上放了一张图,是特斯拉成立以来的累计盈利情况。马斯克对着这张图说,这条曲线的形状,跟他这些年承受的精神痛苦差不多对得上。他说这话时是笑着的,但下面那句话一点都不像开玩笑:公司终于做到了创造的现金多于花掉的现金,留存收益转正,算是“配得上自己的盐”。

“严格来说,我们现在大概是打平。但我很自豪,因为我们创造的现金确实超过了我们花掉的。”
(马斯克)

这句话轻飘飘,但对照一下特斯拉的历史就知道分量。2017 年 Model 3 产能爬坡那段时间,特斯拉离破产最近的时候只剩几周现金流。2018 年马斯克自己说过,那年春天他一度考虑把公司卖给苹果,只是库克连会都没答应开。所以当他在 2022 年说“自由现金流开始往上走了”,这话背后是一个熬过来的人在复盘。

他还补了一句更要紧的话:这波现金流改善,还没算上自动驾驶真正跑起来的部分。按他的说法,一旦自动驾驶的问题解决了,自由现金流会被放大到一个“你算完数字会怀疑是不是搞错了”的程度。

股东大会上还放了一张对比图:特斯拉的营业利润率已经是全行业最高的。一家成立不到二十年的车企,在利润率上压过了所有百年老厂。这件事比 300 万辆的产量更有解释力,因为它说明电动车可以在成本结构上碾压燃油车,靠的是工程能力,跟补贴和情怀没关系。

自动驾驶的真身,是在解决“现实世界的 AI”

这是整场股东大会里马斯克讲得最兴奋的一段,也是他反复绕回来的那个点。

他的逻辑是这样的:道路系统是为人眼和生物神经网络设计的。那么想用机器开车,最自然的方案就是仿照人:摄像头相当于眼睛,硅基神经网络相当于大脑。这种方案在工程上看起来像“凑巧对上了”,其实是唯一合理的选择。

他说,特斯拉实际上是在解决人工智能里一个很重要、很有用的分支,也就是现实世界的人工智能。这话比“我们的车更聪明”要深一层。现实世界的 AI 有个特点:输入是模糊的、连续的、充满噪声的,而且错了要命。实验室里做语言模型,说错一句话没什么成本;在路上判断错一个行人,代价是生命。

所以他在台上直接喊话:全世界做 AI 的聪明人,应该考虑来特斯拉。理由很朴素,这件事能救命。他的原话是,自动驾驶做到比人类驾驶安全一个数量级,能救几百万人的命,避免几千万起严重伤害。

电梯操作员这个类比,装下了他对自动驾驶的全部判断

马斯克讲了一个老故事,很能说明他的思考方式。

几十年前,电梯是需要专人操作的。那时候楼里有个岗位叫电梯操作员,负责拉闸、控制楼层。这套系统每隔一段时间就出一次事故,有人被夹伤甚至夹死。后来电梯自动化了,你按个按钮,它自己到你要去的楼层,一切正常运转。那个岗位消失了,事故率也下来了。

他说,汽车的未来就是这样。现在每辆车都需要一个司机,就像每部电梯都需要一个操作员。自动驾驶普及之后,车会变成按一下就到目的地的工具,车祸死亡率会大幅下降。

这个类比之所以管用,在于它回答了一个常被问到的问题:自动驾驶是不是要把人从驾驶乐趣里剥夺出去?马斯克的回应方式换了个参照系,只反问一句:你怀念电梯操作员吗?

FSD 的进度条:4000 万英里、10.69 版本和 Chuck 的左转

说回具体进度。当时 FSD 测试版累计行驶里程超过 4000 万英里,马斯克预计年底会超过 1 亿英里,而且他承诺年底前北美地区所有申请的人都能用上 FSD 测试版。

那段时间 FSD 的版本号很有意思。手头在打磨的是 10.13,但马斯克说这次的架构改动太大,可能够得上叫 10.69。这个数字是个内部梗,来自一个网络迷因。他故意留了个悬念,说“这得靠它自己挣来,不能白给”。

另一个反复被提的具体场景是 Chuck 的左转。这是 FSD 社区里最有名的一个测试用例:一个无保护左转,视野被对面车流挡住,人类司机开起来都紧张。当时这套系统的成功率大概在 90%,马斯克说快要到 100% 了,团队七天连轴转在改。

他还在台上留了个悬念:月底的 AI Day 第二场会有更多东西讲。后来那场活动的重点确实落在了 Dojo 超算和 Optimus 机器人身上。

工厂是一台由人、机器和软件组成的控制论机器

马斯克对工厂有个说法,值得单独拎出来:工厂是一台由人、机器和软件组成的巨大的控制论集合体。软件越好,这个集合体运转得越好。他还加了一句很马斯克的话:我不认为其他车企是这么想问题的。

这个视角解释了特斯拉为什么在制造上花了那么多力气。传统车企把工厂当成资产,特斯拉把工厂当成产品,一代一代迭代。

他举的例子是最直观的那个:一体化压铸。把 171 个金属零件,压成 2 个。中间那一百多个零件、焊缝、螺栓、工位,全部消失。好处是连锁的:车更轻、刚性更好、操控更好、NVH(噪声振动)表现更好、防水密封更好。每一个维度都在变好,没有互相妥协。

结果是,现在造一台 Model Y 用的机器人数量,只有当年造 Model 3 的大约 30%。工厂布局也重新设计过,得州和柏林的新工厂接近单体式结构,物料流向非常直接。对比之下,弗里蒙特工厂虽然产能很高,但那是拼凑出来的复杂动线。

马斯克在这里下了一个很重的判断:

“所有人都会有电动车,所有车企都会造电动车。最终,比我预想的更晚,但所有车都会自动驾驶。到那个时候,最难被复制的东西是特斯拉的制造技术。”(马斯克)

这句话的分量在于,它把竞争维度从“谁的电池好”“谁的软件强”挪到了“谁能用更少的零件、更少的工序、更少的机器人造出一台更好的车”。前两条别人能追,第三条追起来最慢。

安全这件事,特斯拉的做法是提前预判碰撞

有一组数据值得单独说:在美国政府测试过的所有车型里,特斯拉的致伤概率是最低的。这一点不新鲜,新鲜的是背后的机制。

绝大多数车是不联网的。事故发生之后,车企其实不知道现场到底发生了什么,只能靠事后调查。特斯拉的车一直在线,所以它能拿到真实的碰撞数据,反过来改碰撞结构、改安全带的预紧策略、改气囊的点爆逻辑。

更狠的一步是:用自动驾驶的 AI 来判断碰撞是否即将发生。如果系统判断碰撞发生的概率超过 99%,它会在撞击之前就收紧安全带、点爆气囊。

这个差别很大。绝大多数车只能在碰撞已经发生的瞬间点爆气囊,这时候气囊必须以极高的速度弹出,本身就可能造成伤害。如果能提前几百毫秒预判,气囊可以用更温和的方式展开,保护效果反而更好。

这些改进还会通过 OTA 推送到已经卖出去的车上。一辆 2018 年买的 Model 3,在 2022 年可能因为一次软件更新变得更安全。燃油车时代没有这种玩法。

太阳能板发的电,已经超过了造车和充电用掉的电

这是整场里最容易被忽略、但含义最深的一个数据。

把特斯拉过去十年所有太阳能板发的电加起来,这个总量超过了制造特斯拉所有车辆、以及这些车在超级充电站和家里充电所消耗的电。

换句话说,从能源账上算,特斯拉已经做到了产出大于消耗。马斯克说这才是特斯拉使命的实质:加速可持续能源的到来。他的原话是,公司会继续提高太阳能和车辆的规模,让这两条线保持平衡。

他把可持续能源的未来拆成三根柱子:可持续的能源生产(主要是光伏和风电)、储能电池(解决风和光的间歇性)、电动交通。三样齐了,就是一个完全可持续的未来。缺一样都不行,风光发电不稳定,没有储能就上不了电网;有了清洁电却没有电动交通,石油还是得烧。

关于电池回收,他澄清了一个流传很广的误解。有人说电动车电池没法处理,实际情况是没什么人去处理。特斯拉在内华达已经做到每周回收 50 个电池包,数字还在往上走。

但他也讲了个现实:现在没那么多电池可回收。一块电池通常要用 12 年,有时候 15 年才退役。所以回收业务现在规模很小,长期会变得很重要。他打了个比方,电池包就是高品位的矿石,与其去砸一堆石头,直接砸电池包划算得多。

秘密宏图第三篇章:把“地球能不能可持续”这件事算清楚

股东大会上预告了秘密宏图第三篇章,当时还没写完。马斯克说希望这个月能弄完。

这一篇跟前面两篇的路数不一样。第一篇讲的是先造贵的跑车,再用钱造便宜的车;第二篇讲的是用太阳能板、储能和电动车覆盖家庭和电网。第三篇要回答的是一个更宏观的问题:要实现一个完全可持续的全球经济,到底需要多少吨锂、多少吨正极材料、多少负极、多少隔膜、多少电解液、多少电子元器件?

他说这件事的意义,在于把它讲清楚之后,所有人都能看到这条路是可行的、正在走、而且可以走得更快。特斯拉会在里面尽量出力,也希望更多公司加入进来一起加速。

他提到一个细节:他遇到过很多已经放弃希望的人。这些人觉得来不及了,地球没救了。他的回应很直接:没这回事,地球既能被救,也会被救。

Optimus 可能比汽车更值钱,因为它拿掉了经济的天花板

这一段是整场里最容易被当成吹牛、但逻辑其实最严密的部分。

马斯克说,他惊讶于分析师们没有理解 Optimus 机器人的重要性。他的判断是:长期看,Optimus 的价值会超过汽车业务。

为什么?他给了一个经济学意义上的解释。

一个经济体的产出,等于人均 GDP 乘以人口。这里有个隐含的约束:劳动力是有限的。人口不增长,劳动力就不增长,经济产出就撞到了天花板。所有发达经济体正在面对的就是这个问题。

如果机器人可以做通用劳动,这个约束就消失了。马斯克的原话是:当你不再受劳动力约束,经济规模可以是任意大的。他说这会把经济这个概念本身掀翻。

这个论证成立与否,取决于两个前提:机器人真的能做通用劳动,成本真的低到可以大规模部署。第一个前提当时远未验证,Optimus 在 AI Day 上还只是个能走上台的样机。第二个前提的逻辑倒是对的:一旦劳动变成可以复制的商品,边际成本会趋近于电费和折旧。

顺带他还开了个玩笑:也许以后 Optimus 可以按小时出租。

通胀、衰退和回购:一个做实业的人怎么看宏观

有股东问现金怎么用:回购、分红还是并购?马斯克的回答分三层。

第一层,特斯拉历史上很少并购。除了 Solar City,最大的就是德国的 Tesla Grohmann(一家自动化设备公司)。公司 90% 的增长是有机的。这个比例在科技公司里非常罕见,大部分公司靠买来堆规模。他说会继续关注制造业自动化、软件、AI 这些方向的公司,但出手会很少。

第二层,资本开支和研发支出已经在按最快的速度花,快到这个速度就是上限,再快就是浪费钱。这句话挺有意思,它反驳了一种常见的看法,就是公司账上现金多是因为不会花钱。特斯拉的情况是,产能扩张的速度受限于工程能力,跟资金多少没什么关系。

第三层,回购。他的态度是不排除,但要等两件事确定下来:未来现金流足够稳,世界相对稳定,没有大的黑天鹅。话说得很谨慎,方向是明确的。

然后是通胀。这部分含金量很高,因为他的判断有具体依据。

特斯拉造几百万台车,必须提前几个月采购大宗商品。这条供应链很长、惯性很大,所以公司对价格走向会有一点提前量。他说,在他们采购的品类里,超过一半的价格,六个月后是往下走的趋势。基于这一点,他的判断是:通胀已经见顶,而且会快速回落。

至于衰退,他说做宏观预测是找死,但还是给了个猜测:会有一次衰退,相对温和,大概持续 18 个月左右。理由是这一轮跟 2008 年不一样。当年美国建房的速度是家庭形成速度的两倍,这是明显的资本错配,加上大量公司杠杆过高。现在企业负债水平相对低,没有那种系统性错配。

Robotaxi 这笔账:一台车从每周用 12 小时,变成用 60 小时

有股东问自动驾驶实现后,商业模式会不会从卖车变成租车。马斯克从一个更基础的角度切了进去。

他说,你现在上街看看,到处都是停着的车。原因很简单,车需要司机。一台私家车平均每周大概只用 12 个小时,剩下 156 个小时都在停着。

自动驾驶实现之后,同一台车的使用时长可能提到 50 到 60 个小时。车的效用提升四五倍,成本一点没变。这意味着毛利率会变得非常夸张。

至于所有权模式,他的猜测是会变成某种“爱彼迎加优步”的混合体:你可以完全拥有,可以偶尔出租,可以大量出租,也可以完全不自购只租用。车主自己决定什么时候把车接入车队,什么时候退出。这种弹性传统租车和网约车都做不到。

关于 Robotaxi 的落地城市,提问者想知道第一个试点城市在哪。马斯克的回答很有意思:不会有“第一个试点城市”这回事,因为特斯拉做的是通用方案,没有为某个城市定制。不同城市的差异只在监管审批的快慢。他甚至说,如果生成一个规则相同的虚拟地球,这套系统照样能跑。

那些被追问的细节:Cybertruck、4680、超级充电站

Cybertruck。2019 年发布时预售定金是 99 美元,价格和配置都按当时的情况公布。三年过去,通胀和供应链的变化让原定价不可能维持。马斯克直接承认这是坏消息,补了一句:这车会是一台了不起的机器。产能方面,得州工厂接下来几个月开始安装产线设备,目标是明年年中进入量产。

4680 电池。每周产出已经是可观的数量,高阶产能要到年底。他解释得很实在:新技术最难预测的是 S 曲线爬坡的斜率。这一年 4680 不构成产能瓶颈,因为从供应商那里拿到的电池足够造 150 万辆车。真正的关键在明年。

超级充电站。桩数基本每年翻倍,第三代已经在跑,第四代大概明年开始铺。利用率是核心竞争力,因为车和桩都联网,故障反馈的闭环非常快。有人问阿拉斯加什么时候有,他的回答很干脆:你觉得重要的地方,很快就会有。他还当场答应做一次线上投票,让用户决定下一个建站位置。

关于充电站的形态,他讲了个挺有意思的计划:在洛杉矶做一个未来感餐厅式的超级充电站。银翼杀手遇上《杰森一家》,这是他的原话描述。有大屏幕放影史百大电影片段,有食物,不买特斯拉的人也能来。他说特斯拉会做一些经济上不一定划算、但很酷的事。

关于接班、关于 Twitter、关于“被外星人绑架”

有机构投资人问了一个很直接的问题:关键人风险怎么管理?如果马斯克要去管 Twitter,时间怎么分?

马斯克的回答分两半。前半是承诺:只要还有用,就会留在特斯拉,他觉得自己最能发挥作用的地方是产品设计和制造,包括工厂设计、产品设计、制造优化。后半是实话:这个问题不好回答,我也没有简单答案,欢迎提建议。

他还说了句半开玩笑的话:即使我被外星人绑架了,或者回我的母星了,特斯拉也会继续做得很好。这句话在当时的语境下是缓和气氛,但它确实点到了一个事实:一家公司如果只能靠一个人运转,那它的组织能力是有问题的。

关于 Twitter,他讲得很克制,因为当时有诉讼在身。但他给了两个信息。一是他个人持有的公开交易证券只有特斯拉和 Twitter 两只,他对冲基金和私募都不当,不会到处去买公司。二是他对 Twitter 有个更大的设想:他当年对 X.com 的构想,如果从零开始做,可能要三到五年,而 Twitter 能把这个进程加速三到五年。

这句话后来被证明是整场股东大会里最有预言性的一句。

散户比分析师更懂特斯拉,这话有依据

有个股东问了个很好的问题:大家最应该多关注什么,又最不该瞎担心什么?

马斯克的回答里有一段值得单独拿出来:

“散户投资者提出的问题和想法,其实是最有洞察力的。我注意到一个现象,普通的、日常的人,对特斯拉的理解比分析师更好。”(马斯克)

他给的理由挺扎实,是一个关于公司本质的判断。公司的意义就是创造有用的产品和服务。公司本身不应该存在,它只是一群人聚在一起做产品。产品好,公司就有价值;产品不好,公司就没价值。所以要理解一家公司,你必须用它的产品。如果你觉得产品很棒,那这家公司就很棒。

然后他补了一刀:很多专业分析师不开特斯拉,那也许他们应该去开一开。

至于不该担心什么,他说得很清楚:不要为短期的供应短缺、某个地区的停工这类事焦虑。这些都是路上颠簸一下,不影响长期趋势。看累计产量、看累计行驶里程,那是一条非常干净的指数曲线。他还给了个挺实用的建议:如果你看到大家恐慌、股价大跌,那是个买入机会。

有股东问 Dojo 会不会变成某种“特斯拉版的空中交通管制”,让车与车之间互相通信。马斯克的回答很务实:车与车通信对自动驾驶本身不必要,因为路上绝大多数车在很长时间内还是人开的。有价值的部分是路况共享:一辆特斯拉看到前方封路,实时同步给你,让你不用堵在那里。这类功能他们已经在做。

Boring 公司、热回收,和那些顺便回答的问题

关于 Boring 公司,马斯克讲了他的构想:把路做成三维的,地下可以有任意多层隧道,理论上任何城市的拥堵都能解掉。地面上的街道可以变成公园,因为不需要停车位了。拉斯维加斯已经有一条在运营的隧道,从 Resorts World 通到会展中心。

他还特意澄清了一句:我是支持火车的,我喜欢高铁,一有机会就去坐。他真正有意见的地方在于,高铁穿越城镇时会把人家产权切成两半,噪音还大。地下隧道能解决这个问题,同时保留高铁的速度优势。

有人问工厂能不能做热回收,比如把压铸机的余热用到涂装线的烘干上。马斯克的回答是肯定的,他顺势讲了个车上的例子:特斯拉在极寒天气下能保持续航,靠的是把电池、电机、电控和座舱之间的热量来回搬运。同一个思路完全可以搬到工厂里,他说这是个值得做的优化。

还有人问,普通人怎么才能帮上忙。他的回答很朴素:支持可持续能源这件事本身就有用。三百万买过车的人、几百万装了太阳能板的人,这些加起来才让特斯拉走到今天。他最后说了句整场里最像总结的话:如果我们努力加速可持续能源和可持续交通,未来会是好的。他说这话毫无提倡躺平的意思,恰恰相反,他想说的是努力这件事确实有效。

十年之后:1 亿辆是个下限

有人问他,十年后特斯拉会有多少车。他先拿十年前做对照:那时不到 3000 辆,现在 300 万。然后给了个预测:十年后超过 1 亿辆相当可行,如果不到,他会感到意外。

1 亿辆是什么概念?全球汽车保有量大概 15 亿辆。也就是说,特斯拉要在十年内占到全球保有量的几个百分点到十几个百分点。这个数字听着夸张,对照它的复合增速,并非不可能。

至于工厂数量,他的估算是大概 12 家左右,平均每家 150 万到 200 万辆的年产能。这个规模是空前的,目前全球没有任何一家工厂能到这个量级。弗里蒙特已经是北美产能最高的工厂,但受限于场地,大概 70 到 80 万辆就封顶了。新工厂会按 150 万到 200 万的目标去设计。

他还提到,今年晚些时候可能再宣布一个新的工厂选址。台下有人喊加拿大,他笑着说自己有一半加拿大血统。

把这些拼起来看,这场股东大会其实讲了一件事:特斯拉在同时推进五条线,产能扩张、制造成本、自动驾驶、能源业务、人形机器人。前两条是当下的现金流,第三条是未来的现金流放大器,后两条是下一个时代的入场券。

马斯克反复强调的一句话是:最难复制的东西是制造。这句话放在整场的语境里,能当成理解这家公司的一把钥匙。

你可以从这场股东大会里拿走什么

  • 看公司,先看产品。马斯克自己给了一个判断标准:如果你觉得一家公司的产品很棒,那这家公司就很棒。反过来,只看财报不看产品,很容易看错。这条建议对任何行业的投资者都成立。
  • 把短期波动和长期趋势分开。供应短缺、单季交付不及预期、某个工厂停工,这些都是一次性事件。要看的是累计产量、累计里程这类单调递增的曲线。它们不会每个月都好看,方向不会骗人。
  • 关注制造工艺,别只盯产品参数。171 个零件压成 2 个,机器人用量降到三成,这些数字不会出现在发布会 PPT 上,它们却决定了成本曲线,也就决定了长期竞争力。看制造业公司,多往工厂里看。
  • 遇到恐慌性下跌,先问自己产品还行不行。如果产品没问题,价格跌下去,逻辑上就是买入机会。这话说起来容易做起来难,至少值得在每次想割肉之前问一遍。
  • 听到“机器人会替代劳动”这类判断,先算经济账。先别问技术能不能做到,先问成本会不会低到可以大规模部署。一旦劳动变成可复制的商品,边际成本会趋近于电费和折旧,那时候整个经济的天花板才会被拿掉。
  • 做技术选择时,挑那个“必须解决”的问题。特斯拉选摄像头加神经网络,理由在于道路系统本来就是为眼睛和大脑设计的,这条路走通了不一样。现实世界的 AI 难在错了要命,也正因为它难,做成了才有壁垒。
语音识别自动转录(Whisper),含全部发言人,可能有识别错误。已按语句合并成段落,并去掉 um、uh 等口头填充词。

0:12Welcome. Well, I feel welcome. So, well, it's great to see everyone here. Welcome. So, yeah, welcome to giga Texas.

0:53All right. So, let's see. I'll go over kind of recount the year. It's been an amazing year. an amazing year, the Tesla team has done amazing work. And I have to say, one of the things that, it's like what do you enjoy most in life? I really, being able to work with a super talented group

1:20of people and to create great products and manufacture those products and deliver them to people and make people happy from those products is that's one of the best things in life. So, yeah, I'd just like to say what an honor it is who work with such a talented team at Tesla, and that's the reason we've been able to do all these things.

1:49So, yeah, we are aiming to achieve a 2 million vehicle run rate by the end of the year. Yeah. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. This is the best crowd, I mean. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa.

2:34Whoa. Whoa. I love you guys too. So anyway, thanks to the hard work of the Tesla team, we've already been able to achieve a one and a half million unit annualized run rate. And depending on how the rest of this year goes, we might get close to, or we'll get approximately at the one and a half million mark and be exiting the year at a two million unit run rate.

3:05And then also worth noting, just recently in the last few weeks, we made our three millionth car. So, you know, it's pretty wild to think like 10 years ago,

3:30where things were, you know, 10 years, August 2012, we'd made 2,500 roadsters, and I think maybe a couple hundred model S's-ish, but less than 3,000 cars. So 10 years ago, we made less than 3,000 cars. And here we stand 10 years later, having made over 3 million. And actually, this is one of the cleanest exponentials I've, you know, it looks like one of those sort of,

4:19business plan presentation things that doesn't actually come true, but you see it in the venture capital business plan situation, but it's actually true. That's the amazing part. And yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

4:44Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, thank you. So, yeah, it's great here. I love California too to be frank.

5:02I'm gonna be clear. Yeah. Oh, come on. We got great teams in California and we got a great team in China and Shanghai and a great team in Berlin and Germany and Europe. And I know it's interesting to look at the cumulative profitability since inception. approximately tracks to sort of mental pain actually.

5:43It's a psychic damage. We're at Green Cove, approximately correct. But I'm just very proud of the fact that we've actually been able to produce more cash than we have spent and have positive retained earnings and be worth our salt, essentially. And that's a really big deal. It's very hard.

6:14So I mean, this is a big deal and I think it's going to go up from here.

6:35So you can see we obviously had some challenges there in 2017 and then a bit since then our our free cash flow generation has been very good and trending upwards. And this is really before autonomy really kicks in. We have an autonomy to some degree, but solving autonomy will really be an amplification

7:07of free cash flow to a degree that is, you run the numbers and it's like, wow, can it really be that crazy? But it could be that crazy. And, you know, this year I swear.

7:31We got anyone here in the FSD beta program? Sweet. Yeah, no, totally, totally, totally. Okay, well, I thought... I thought you might ask that. So it's 10.13 we've been working on for a while. And actually what sort of happened is we've made some pretty significant architectural improvements.

8:08So it's really going to be more than a 10.12 to 10.13 release. It might not speak too soon. It might qualify for 10.69. So it's got to earn that, obviously. You can't just throw that out, you know. But it's, it's, it's, there's a lot of, a lot of improvements. And especially in complex left turns.

8:41And yeah, we were, we're going to solve Chuck's turn. Yes, yes. 100%. Absolutely. Absolutely. We have a lot of respectful valid criticism. And yeah, so I think we're at roughly 90% success rate with your turn. So we're almost at 100. So it's looking good. And yeah, so I'm hopeful it might be a week next week.

9:18So, yeah, two weeks. It's working well for me. So, yeah. It's in my two teams like working literally seven days a week and making major improvements. And it's really interesting because we're effectively solving an important aspect of artificial intelligence, real world AI, for self-driving, which when you think about it,

10:00it's what's needed to solve self-driving. Because how is the road system designed? It's designed for a biological neural net and eyes. And so naturally the thing that would therefore work, the silicon analog is cameras and silicon neural nets. And so sort of, sort of by accident we're actually solving an important and I think very

10:25useful element of artificial intelligence. And I definitely want people out there, you know, talented people are working on AI to consider working at Tesla because I think we're solving just a very important part of AI and one that can ultimately save millions of lives and prevent tens of millions of serious injuries

10:47by driving just in order of magnitude safer than people. And you know, there used to be a time back in the day where we'd have, yeah, this is super important. So, there used to be a time when we'd have elevator operators. It was normal to have elevator operators and have like a big relay and stuff.

11:11But you know every now and again you make a mistake and share somebody in half. So I'll be like, okay, then we went to automated elevators and you press the button and you go to your floor and it just works. And that's kind of how it's going to be in the future with cars. And yes.

11:34And then we'll have lots of interesting things to say on AI day at the end of next month. I'll leave that to next month, yeah. So, you know, when we started out here, obviously we were told electric cars were impossible and even if really if you could make an electric car with a couple hundred miles range, then

11:57nobody would buy it anyway because they people just love gasoline cars. So, you know, when we started out, it was dumb to start a car company and then dumb squared to do an electric car company. And we're told, yeah, you're never going to make money, et cetera. And we didn't for a while.

12:15But now we have the highest operating margin in the whole industry. So exactly.

12:32Exactly. It says there's not just the car company. It tells there's many companies in one. And we're as much as a software company as we are a hardware company. And that's really going to be obviously essential for the future. And software, both in the car and obviously with neural net training, but also software in the factory as well.

12:51So you can think of the factory as a giant cybernetic collective. So a factory is just an enormous cybernetic collective of humans and machines and software. And the better the software is, the better that cybernetic collective works. I don't think other OEMs think like that. But that's what it is.

13:16So, you know, there's a lot of talk of competition among electric vehicles, but really, the EVs are electric vehicles taking a market share from gasoline cars. So, yeah. And from a Tesla standpoint, we obviously welcome this and we're very excited to see that the big car companies are embracing electric vehicles.

13:48If you were to rewind their press releases to five years ago, that was not the case. They were not saying nice things about electric vehicles five years ago. But now I believe almost every major car company in the world has embraced electrification and agrees that it is the right path.

14:09And this is really what we set out to do with Tesla. It was not to get maximum market share or anything. It was really to try to get the, to show the auto industry that it was possible to go electric. And that if you made compelling electric cars, people would buy them. And that's what's happened.

14:30And I think that's really profound. So yeah. Also when our competitors advertise for electric vehicles every time they do that, our sales go up. So it's pretty funny. So yeah. But we have open sourced a lot of patents so they can use our patents for free. And so we're helping out.

15:01And I think it's sort of a mutual prosperity thing, and it's good. So yeah. So model Y. You definitely don't want to count chickens until they're hatched, but I think we're tracking to have Model Y be the highest of selling vehicle by revenue this year and the highest by unit volume next year.

15:28There's still a lot of work to do. Like these factories don't just magically work. So I still have a lot of work to do in Berlin and here in Austin to spool up these two giga factories and we've got different supply chains. So there's a host of problems. None of the problems are individually or not difficult but there's like 10,000 of them.

16:05So the rate of production is like how fast can you solve the 10,000 problems essentially. And we're solving pretty fast but a lot of work to do. And we might be able to announce another factory location later this year.

16:42Where should we... Okay, where should we build it? Okay, we've got a lot of Canada's. I'm half Canadian, so maybe I should. Well, I think, you know, ultimately we'll end up building, I don't know, probably at least 10 or 12 gigafactories. And there will be really gigafactories like output, you know, for average output of like

17:22one and a half to two million units per factory, which is enormous. And our Fremont factory in California is already the highest output factory in North America. So, sorry? Well, I think we'll have a friendly competition between Texas, California. Well, Shanghai is hard to be at half to say.

17:59Shanghai is pretty, Shanghai team is just awesome. So, yeah, there. Great team there. So, with respect to, you know, sometimes you get this sort of these bogus attacks of EVs are somehow worse than gasoline cars, which is not true. The average life cycle emissions of an EV are dramatically lower than that of a gasoline

18:26car. I'm kind of telling you things you already know. But every now and again you think surely this nonsense has been put to bed, but it pops up again. But it's obviously electric cars are dramatically lower CO2 lifetime than a gasoline car. So, anyway, that's kind of obvious. Now, this is a thing that I think is super cool.

18:49If you add up all the energy produced over the last 10 years by Tesla solar panels, it is more energy than was used to manufacture all of our cars and charge all of our cars at superchargers and at home. This is like, I mean, the mission of Tesla

19:20is to accelerate sustainability. And I think this is really amazing. More energy produced than was used in making the car or and charging them of billions of miles. And we're going to keep, obviously, increasing our solar activity and vehicles and try to keep these on par. Because the three elements of a sustainable energy future are sustainable energy production, primarily with solar and wind.

19:52and then stationary battery packs to store the sustainable energy because of its wind and solar intermittent and then electric transport. And if you have those three pillars, you have a fully sustainable future. And yeah, so that's, yeah. And obviously, battery packs are very recyclable.

20:22They are, you can think of it like high grade ore. If you want to crunch up a bunch of rocks or crunch up a battery pack, which is like super high grade ore. So it's a no brainer to recycle battery packs. And we are already recycling, I should point this out. Some people wonder what's happening.

20:40We're already recycling at over 50 a week in Nevada. So Tesla battery recycling is already underway, has been underway, and is scaling up. Now cars are lasting quite a long time, so there's not that many batteries to actually recycle because you kind of have to typically wait like 12 years or something.

21:02Quite a long time before the battery actually is no longer useful. It's sometimes 15 years. So recycling starts off small, but then it becomes very significant long term.

21:21Some factory footage, obviously. 50 packs a week. Yeah. So, yeah, that's not a thing like this. Actually, just not that many packs to recycle because there's not the vast majority of them are still in use. Oh yes, exactly, that's what I'm saying. Where is that thing? Ah, so, so Mass Point 3 is gonna be

22:03fundamentally about scaling. Just looking at the overall problem from a global macro economic standpoint and saying, what are all the things that are needed to achieve a fully sustainable economy? Because I think a lot of people don't know. And really, what tonnage of lithium, of cathode, anode, separator, electrolyte, electronics,

22:39what are all the things that need to be done in order to transition to a fully sustainable global economy? Which I think the sooner we do that, the better for the planet. And I think just articulating that and just making it clear that this is absolutely doable and it is being done and we just want it to be done as fast as possible.

23:05I mean, I meet a lot of people out there who have lost hope. No, they think it's too late and they think there's no chance and the earth is doomed. It's not doomed. Yeah. Yeah.

23:35Both can and will be saved. Yeah. So, in addition to battery advancements and electronics advancements in AI, we've also done a lot to simplify the structure of cars to make it easier to manufacture. And one of the things we've done is create the largest castings that have ever been done,

24:07and the very complex castings. And so we're able to take 171 pieces of metal and go from 171 pieces to two. And in the process, make it lighter, stiffer, with better right handling, better noise vibration and harshness, better sealing against water. So it's really better in every way.

24:30And we're going to keep enhancing the casting. So this is a testament to our materials team and to our casting technology. So really rethinking the whole way in which a car is made. And it's a gigantic improvement. We have those points from going from say model S or even even model three.

25:07at about 30% of the robots used for Model 3, a current Model Y. So yeah. We've also improved the layout of the factory. So the factory is sort of a single, well, close to a single monolithic factory with a very straightforward flow. We do a lot in Fremont, but the flow is complex and it's not an easy flow.

25:40So we're really rethinking the factory. And I think the really long-term sustainable advantage of Tesla will be manufacturing. I mentioned this before, but obviously everyone will have electric cars. All manufacturers will have electric cars. And eventually, they'll take longer than they think,

26:03but eventually all cars will be self-driving. And the thing that would be hardest to replicate is Tesla's manufacturing technology. So this is actually very important for a long-term standpoint. When thinking about the competitiveness of companies, especially if the companies are technology companies,

26:38I recommend looking at where the smartest engineers want to work. This is, wherever the smartest engineers want to work, that's gonna be, that technology company is gonna be the one that is likely to succeed. Just like if it's a pro sports team, where are the ace players going? Okay, probably that team will win.

27:02So we put a lot of effort into ensuring that the best engineers in the world want to work at Tesla. And frankly, sometimes Tesla's number one, sometimes SpaceX's number one, So this is just like last year. And we do actually, for those curious, and maybe want to work at either SpaceX or Tesla,

27:21we do allow people to move from one company to the other if they would like. So if you want to spend a better time working on electric vehicles, but a time spent working on rockets, you can, that's cool, we sport that. So, yeah. And we also made a lot of improvement with factory safety.

27:44So I think we believe we now have the best factory safety in the industry. And so we're excited to have very good safety and getting better. So. And a bunch of this is driven by just encouraging people within the factory to submit ideas for safety improvement. And we've passed our goal of three suggestions per employee

28:20in this year. And this really is a game changer for improving safety. And, yeah. You don't have to cop after every slide, unless you really want to, but. But. Good. So we had this a lot of interest in working at Tesla with three million job applications last year. So, sorry? Yeah, it's true.

28:54So, a lot of interest in working at Tesla. Now, some people may occasionally have encountered a supercharger that didn't work, but in general, the uptime of our superchargers is extremely good. And we just try to make it super smooth, and because our superchargers are always connected, the car is always connected. Our feedback loop for fixing a supercharger is very quick.

29:19And obviously we keep upgrading the supercharger capability. We're now at version three. We'll start rolling out version four, I don't know, maybe next year. So the superchargers get better and better. You know, you notice that, yeah, actually I don't want to give away way that to...

29:37Let's just say that there's some cool stuff happening on the supercharging front. So... Alaska, yes. All right. We're basically doubling our supercharging count every year. So if there isn't a supercharger in some place that you think is important, it probably will be there soon.

30:07We've also made a lot of progress on safety, so our cars are already the safest in the industry, so we have the lowest probability of entry of any cars ever tested by the US government, and we update this in real time. So because our cars are connected, this is a big difference.

30:30All the other cars with rare exception are not connected. So the manufacturers don't really know what happened in a crash. But in the case of Tesla, we are able to look at crashes and see how can we improve the safety, look at the crashes, improve the crash structure. Also, we improve how the seat belts tension and how the airbags deploy.

30:59So in these updates, if we figure out, oh, there's a slightly better way to deploy the the airbags to improve the safety in a crash, we'll actually do an over-the-air update to improve the way that the airbags deploy or the way that the seat belt pretensions. And we're now starting to include our Tesla autopilot AI to be able to see if a crash is

31:22about to occur. And if it sees that a crash is about to occur with 99 plus percent probability, then it will activate the seat belt pretentioners and deploy the airbags as opposed to what the vast majority of cars do is the vast majority of cars are only able to deploy airbags when the crash

31:42is happening. And so that makes the airbag deployment a lot more violent, but if you can anticipate the crash, the airbag deployment can be much better than just impact. So, thank you. We'll see FST beta grow very rapidly. And this is definitely going to go very exponential in miles driven.

32:16So we're now at over 40 million miles. And I suspect by this year we'll be, I don't know, well over 100 million miles. And we're still tracking very much to have widespread deployment of FSD beta this year in North America. So I'm, I should say, if basically FSD beta will be available to anyone who requests it

32:50by the end of this year. So AIDI Part 2, I think people are blown away, but that's the end of next month. So believe that, it's going to be a lot of cool stuff. I'm surprised that people, or at least analysts out there, are not really understanding the importance of the optimist robot.

33:29My guess is optimists will be more valuable than the car long term. In fact, it will, I think, turn the whole notion of what's an economy on its head. It's the point of which you have no shortage of labor. An economy is GDP per capita. If you don't have a capital constraint, then the economy can be arbitrarily huge.

34:00So it's sort of crazy. Anyway, thank you for voting. So your vote matters and it's great to have direct contact with individual shareholders. And thank you for voting to support our proposals.

34:29So the next decade, I wonder how many cars we'll have in 10 years.

34:4510 years ago we had less than 3,000 cars. Now we've made 300 million.

35:01I say 100 million is pretty doable. So, I'd be surprised if it's not over 100 million in 10 years. And then many other products, some of which you've heard about, some of which you have not. So, yeah, bled it out. All right. So, we've got some questions from the internet that were voted to the top.

35:38So I'll answer these questions and then we'll take just questions from the audience. And so one of the questions is how does Tesla intend to utilize cash in the coming years? Will we increase CapEx? I guess you can read the question. Share buybacks, dividends, or acquisitions? Well, it's interesting.

35:58Tesla has actually done very few acquisitions. Apart from the Solar City acquisition, it was the only really big acquisition we did, and the next largest would be Tesla, Gromen. But it's actually used a remarkably small amount of its equity to do acquisitions compared to other companies.

36:16The vast majority of our growth, basically 90% of our growth, has been organic, which I think is actually a really good thing. But if we do see interesting companies, we will acquire them, but it's quite rare for us to acquire a company. But we are interested in companies that are very good at manufacturing automation, software,

36:44AI, manufacturing technology in general, that kind of thing. We certainly will increase CAPEX. We are actually spending CAPEX money and R&D money as fast as we can do so without wasting it. is not a constraint. If we try to spend it any faster, we'll just be wasting money. So we're cranking hard on CapEx and R&D.

37:17Depending on what our future cash flow looks like, I think a sort of share buyback is possible. I wouldn't want to commit to that. But well, let's just make sure that there's not some forced majeure event somewhere. I think we want to make sure we have plenty of capital and that future cash flow is looking very solid and the world is relatively stable

37:47and then I think share about buyback is on the table. So how many factories are necessary

38:00to achieve 20 million vehicles, I think probably roughly a dozen. So we're aiming for one and a half to two million units per factory. Now our factory in California, we're just running out of room, so it's hard to get more than maybe 700 or 800,000 vehicles a year out of there. But most places will be aiming for one and a half to two.

38:33So it doesn't cite. Although we are aiming for giant monolithic buildings. Savatruck pricing, it was unveiled in 2019 and the reservation was $99. So you know, things have a lot has changed since then. So the specs and the pricing will be different. I, you know, I sort of give a little bit of bad news, but I think there's no way to sort

39:14of have haven't anticipated quite the inflation that we've seen and the various issues. But what I can say is that the Cybertruck will be one hell of a product and it's going to be like a damn fine machine. So I'm not tracking to be in production middle of next year from this factory.

39:41So we're installing, we're going to be installing the production equipment, tooling and all, starting the next couple months, we'll begin the installation. So aiming to be in volume production in the middle of next year. Now what could possibly go wrong in answering this question?

40:06Oh man. All right, so I should just pass. Well, let me just say that I hope for peace and respect. Fair enough.

41:02Yeah. Yeah, good advice. So we're deploying superchargers wherever we see the greatest need. Now sometimes the greatest need is in some place that is extremely difficult to get permits. Like the getting a permit in Malibu was nuts. Like the next level that took years. And so some places are hard to get permits and some places are easier.

41:43But we are aiming to just generally analyze the supercharger usage every day and we prioritize our supercharger locations according to where we see the greatest need. With respect? Sorry, why? Well, you know, maybe we should do an online poll for where is it? Where should we put superchargers?

42:06Yeah. That's good. Okay, we'll do that. So with respect to amenities with superchargers, I think we'll do a couple of just fun things. Like we're going to do a really fun supercharger location in LA. And the general vision is to have something that's like a futuristic kind of like diner,

42:33sort of like, I don't know, Blade Runner meets Greece, meets Jetsons. Yeah. Yeah, something cool. different, but with some style, and where you can get some great food. And we're planning to have these big screens at the Supercharge location, and the screens will be aiming to show the 100 greatest movie clips of all time.

43:03So you can have a Teethberger and a charger car and watch some cool stuff on the screen. And it'll be open to others who are not, you know, you can come to the restaurant even if you don't own a Tesla. But it'll be like a little gem, I think, there in LA. And then depending on how that goes, we'll, you know, we might roll that out to a few other places.

43:27We will try to do interesting, fun things that are not necessarily economically sensible, but they're cool. So 4680, this is not an easy one to answer.

43:51We are making a decent number every week and I think we will be in high volume production by the end of this year. It's always difficult to predict. This is because a lot of new technology, what's the slope of the S-curve on-ramp? And except that I'm confident we will get to the high production

44:15rate, but it's probably the end of this year before we get confidently to a high production rate. But this does not affect our vehicle output. We actually have enough battery cell supply from suppliers to make one and a half million cars this year. So it's not a constraint on output, but it will be important for next year.

44:45And a new mass plan is not yet ready. I don't know, maybe I aim to get it done this month. But like I said, it's going to be just looking at the big picture. What does it take to make Earth fully self-sustaining from an energy standpoint? And yeah, just map it out and say this is what needs to be done.

45:09Tesla will try to be as useful as possible in this regard. And hopefully, lots of other companies can join in and help accelerate the sustainable energy revolution. With peak inflation behind us. So the inflation question is interesting, because we do get a fair bit of insight into where prices of things are going over time.

45:42Because when you're making millions of cars, you have to purchase commodities many months in advance of when they're needed. So you need to tell, because it's a very long supply chain with a tremendous amount of inertia. So we sort of have some insight into where prices are headed

46:04over time. And the interesting thing that we're seeing now is that most of our commodities, most of the things that go into a Tesla, not all, but I don't know, more than half, the prices are trending down in six months, six months from now. Now this could change, obviously, but the trend is down, which suggests that we are past peak inflation.

46:30Now making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for disaster. But my guess is that we're past peak inflation and that we will have a recession. I think it will be a relatively mild recession. Sort of just guess in here. This is total speculation. But I guess it's a mild recession for, I don't know,

47:0518 months or something like that. It would be my best guess right now. We don't have fundamental capital misallocations in the US as we have had in the past, like leading up to 2008, where we were building primary housing units at twice the rate of household formation, which obviously doesn't make sense.

47:29And a lot of companies that were over-levered. The leverage or debt that companies have right now is relatively low. So yeah, I would say probably mild moderate recession, maybe 18 months-ish. And I think inflation is going to drop rapidly. That's my guess. I don't know what do you guys think.

47:59Exactly. It's not about right? Okay, great. All right, cool. Yeah, the Tesla robot essentially changing the economy, like how can we base an economy on automation AI with the full self driving that's being implemented. You're going to have a full fleet of vehicles that can drive themselves, you know, how these robots that can go into your vehicle and place things.

48:23Will you be moving to a rental model or how we base a Tesla model on selling cars whenever these cars are fully automated, you can drive wherever they would like, and hopefully would be applicable to having multiple people use the vehicle instead of just one person. Yeah, so it's interesting to think about an autonomous car because when you drive around, look at how many cars are parked.

48:51Like they're just parking lots full of cars everywhere because cars need a driver, And so most of the time they're doing nothing. Typically a passenger car is going to be like 12 hours a week or something like that of usage. After autonomous, maybe it can get to 50 or 60 hours of usage.

49:14Then that's sort of four or fivefold improvements in the utility of a car. But the interesting thing is that the car still costs the same. So in that scenario, at least for some period of time, the effect of gross margin on an autonomous car is kind of boggles the mind. So in terms of how the cause be operated,

49:47I mean I think it would be, you'd have the option of owning a car, using a car just occasionally when you need it, like an auto Uber or something like that. And there would be people, and then an owner of a car could decide that they want to use their car or they want to add or subtract it to the fleet.

50:12So I think it would end up being some kind of combination of like Airbnb and Uber or something like that. So sometimes you can go all the way from owning it to renting it sometimes to renting it a lot to completely renting it. But the utility of the car will just be mind-blowingly great.

50:35And then, like I said, optimists will really bring the future to now. So, yeah, maybe. Maybe you could rent optimists out hourly. I mean, assuming we get all these things, we do all these things, I think probably Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world. You know, we all know how the media treats you.

51:20So well. Yeah. So I don't have a question for you today. I just want to say on behalf of my six-year-old at home, Kyler Scott, that's watching right now, who thinks you're awesome as well, thank you for making the world a better place. Thank you.

52:07Love you guys. I mean, I just like to say, thank you for helping make it happen. Because without you, without the early adopters of electric vehicles and sort of full self-driving, Tesla would not be where it is today. So thank you for your support. What a presentation. Thank you, Tesla team.

52:32It's an honor to be a stockholder. Elon, I brought you the final checkpoint for SpaceX and Mini Moon. Maybe little X can play with it. My name is David Guaharda. I'm a former Bronzewill resident. My first suggestion is to add a new string mode option where the driver can select lazy

52:48mode and have the software accommodate between comfort, standard and sport modes depending on the speed the car is going. This will increase handling and safety. Second, when disengaging out of pilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it. Last one. Weeks ago, talking to Mr. San Patil at Starbase, I told him that the teams should add a tab

53:12in the SpaceX website and disclose what type of skills and preparation are going to be needed from us to accomplish the greatest adventure ever, ever in human history going to Mars. All right, well, thanks for the suggestions. Those are good suggestions. Thank you. All right. Sure. Hi, so I do actually have a question, but one thing that I want to ask is like,

53:41People ask you all the questions. What do you think people miss and should be excited way more about? And what do you think people are fretting way too much about and shouldn't be worried at all? Yeah, that's actually a good point. I think actually the questions and ideas posed by retail

54:08investors, like small retail investors, like I think many of you in the audience, are actually the most insightful. And I find it remarkable that essentially amateur, normal everyday people actually understand Tesla better than the analysts. I mean, how much you must see this is.

54:27It's like, and I mean, I think really say, well, what's the point of a company is to create useful products and services. The company should not exist in and of itself. It exists. It's a group of people gathered together to make products and services. And if those products and services are great, it's a valuable and useful company.

54:55And if they're not, it's not. And so really, to understand a company, you must use its products. And if you think the products are great, then the company's great. That's it. That's how it is. And so I think ironically, a lot of the people that sort of professional analysts don't drive Teslas.

55:13So like, well, okay, you know, maybe you should. Yeah, cool. I mean, we aim to make Tesla the most amount of fun you can have in a car, you know? So. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, so let's see. So I think that there are a lot of really good and it's high flight is that I see on the internet,

55:39Twitter and whatnot. And oh, yeah, Twitter. So, yeah, so let's see.

56:02I think sometimes people fret a bit too much about short-term things that which are clearly just bumps in the road type of thing where there might be a supplier shortage or some shut down in some part of the world. But really those things are clearly just one off items and don't really matter for the long term. The trend, like looking at the cumulative

56:38of output and cumulative miles driven. And you can see that cumulative output is a very clean exponential. And so I guess sometimes people fret a little bit too much about this quarter or that quarter. But if you're a shareholder, a company is really like the net present value of future cash flows.

57:00And so one quarter is not really a big deal. I think if you see people panicking, then instead of saying, oh man, my stock's gone down. This is a buying opportunity. Yeah. Hi, Elon. Thanks for the meeting. I became a Marine because I want to help protect your future based on Mars.

57:29My friends and I are trained, and we support the mission. Would you be open to this idea? Yeah. Space Marines, absolutely. Hi, Elon. A lot of Tesla's products today focus on electrical energy for sustainable future. Do you foresee Tesla perhaps exploring thermal energy sustainable products other than HVAC?

58:01Like say, for example, in this Giger factory, taking the residual heat from the Giger presses and applying them to see the drying up in your paint line. Yeah, I think getting dual use of like, dual use of like, if you use electricity to do something and then it generates heat and

58:19then you transporting that heat elsewhere with the factory, it's probably a good idea to do that actually. It is a, sort of I would say a future optimization, but it is probably something worth doing in the factory and it is something we do in the car. So in the car we carefully manage the electrical and the thermal energy and so like one of the ways

58:40that we achieve a long range in cold weather is by both charging the pack and heating the pack. And then the pack acts as both an electrical and a thermal reservoir to achieve long range even in very cold climates. And so we're constantly, within the car, shuttling heat back and forth

59:01between motor dryer electronics pack and the cabin volume. So that same concept should be applied to a factory, I agree. Elon wassup, and my name is Justin. Some know me as SMD capital on Twitter. I had the number one voted question last earnings about scaling to extreme size. I have another big question I think a lot of people would want to know.

59:32In regards to when would Tesla launch their first pilot city for the Tesla network, the Robotaxy business? Well, you see, I think it's actually going to be probably much more widespread than that, because Tezla is developing a general solution for self-driving, and it's not really specific

59:59to one city or location. Now, there's different regulatory requirements in various cities and states, so some locations will offer regulatory approval sooner than others. But we are aiming for a general solution. And in fact, if you created a randomly generated, alternate Earth, our system would still work.

1:00:30Like literally, you know, like you had some sort of computer generated Earth that, you know, the same rules as current Earth. Our system is sufficiently generalized that it would work in a computer-generated alternate Earth. So, yeah. So anyway.

1:00:55So, I'm Gary Black, managing partner of the Future of Fund, Tesla's our largest position.

1:01:10It's probably the thing we worry about most. It's not PR, but it's succession. So, you know, key man risk is a big thing. How does the board think about your succession? And especially when you have, you know, a judge is going to decide in a couple months whether or not you have to take over Twitter?

1:01:31How would you split your time? Well, I think Tesla is definitely gathering a lot momentum and we have a very exciting product roadmap that will last a long time. So now obviously execution against that roadmap is difficult because these are not simple products, they're not copies of what anyone else is doing, they're new things.

1:02:02So, but I intend to stay with Tesla as long as I can be useful. And, you know, I can be most useful, I think, on the product design and manufacturing. So, basically factory design, product design, and sort of manufacturing optimization. So, and we do have a very talented team here.

1:02:30So I think Telser would continue to do very well even if I was kidnapped by aliens. Or went back to my home planet maybe. So yeah, I think it's a good question. And to be frank, I don't have an easy answer. Open to ideas. I'm definitely working as hard as I can. And I'm very excited about the future of the company.

1:03:07And I think it's got a very bright future, even without me. So I'm not leaving, so to be clear. So I obviously have to be a little careful about what I say with about Twitter because, you know, this is like lawsuit and stuff. So sometimes people get bent out of shape. But I do use Twitter a lot.

1:03:42So it's not like I would, unlike randomly going around wanting to acquire companies or something. I'm not a hedge fund or private equity firm or something. So in fact, the only two publicly traded securities I own are Tesla and Twitter. it. So, and I think in the case of Twitter, since I use it a lot, I share myself in the

1:04:07foot a lot, you know, take my grave, et cetera. But, you know, I think it's, I do understand the product quite well, so I think I've got a good sense of where to point the engineering team Twitter to make it radically better. And I do sort of have a grander vision for what I thought X.com or X corporation could

1:04:43have been back in the day. It's a pretty grand vision. And obviously that could be started from scratch. And I think Twitter would help accelerate that by three to five years. So it's kind of like something I thought would be quite useful for a long time. I know what to do. Don't have to have Twitter for that, but it's probably at least a three-year accelerant.

1:05:18And I think it's something that will be very useful to the world. How's it going, Elon? My name is Arane, and with the projected release of the RoboTaxi

1:05:34coming in the years ahead, would it be looked at as the boring company, would it be used to get regulation for full self-driving and would it be a good venue for the RoboTaxi? Also my little brother Zane says hi, owns all Tassaha wheels. Okay, cool. I said hi to him back. So yeah, the boring company is making good progress actually.

1:06:02And for the longest time, I'd give a talk somewhere and people say, what are opportunities you know about? I was like, tunnels! And they'd be like, for five years I said, if somebody could just do a tunneling company, we can solve traffic and we can have also very high speed transport between cities.

1:06:21Because while I'm a fan of trains, and I like high-speed trains, they do intersect the, you know, go through towns and neighborhoods and chop people's property in half and they're very loud. So, but I want to be clear, I'm pro-train, one of those train people, you know. I take every opportunity to go on interesting trains.

1:06:43So, but if you have a sort of a much simplified version of the Hyperloop, it's really just Tesla's in a tunnel that's depressurized, you can go between cities super fast and without disrupting the stuff above ground. So that's kind of the vision for the boring company is to make roads 3D and have sort of

1:07:10an arbitrary number of layers of roads. And I think you can solve essentially any traffic problem in any city if you go 3D with tunnels, so multiple areas of tunnels going from connecting the city. And you can also turn a lot of the streets into parks because you won't need to have

1:07:36cars in the doors, you won't need parking. So I think, Warren Company, I think is capable of much more transformation than it may seem. And we actually have an operational tunnel in Vegas right now. So yeah, if you go to Vegas, go to a resorts world and you can hop in the tunnel and go

1:07:56to the convention center and you're like, yeah, and you can paint those. Exactly. I'm doing what I can to support those. But yeah, I think Ford Company is going to do some pretty interesting things in the years to come. So let's see. Good afternoon, Elon. I think many people share my experience.

1:08:21I gave you, or at least Tesla, my complete family's legacy because I believed in it. And thank you for you and your company outperforming. I think you saved a lot of us. Thank you. OK. So my question is this. Commercial aircraft have something called ACAS where aircraft relate telemetry of their position between one another to a permanent collision.

1:08:45Yeah, sometimes too much telemetry. Yeah. Thank you. So, taking this to a higher level, do you see Tesla's communicating with one another, with one another, and Dojo turning into some kind of ultimate air traffic control for Tesla supply chains and Robotaxy, thank you. Actually, that's an interesting idea, I haven't thought about that.

1:09:05I mean, right now I'll go with Dojo, is just to be really good at video training. So, we actually already have, I think, the maybe the fourth, and maybe approaching the third, most powerful computing center in the world for AI training. Yeah, they might be through it at this point, which obviously uses just an enormous number of GPUs and stuff, so our first goal with Ojos

1:09:33to make it competitive and be more effective at neural net training than a whole bunch of GPUs. And it might get their soon-ish. And then of course it can be used for many other neural net training tasks. It's a fundamentally, it's a computer design from the ground up to be optimized for neural net training, which really no computer has, that's never been done before.

1:10:03And yeah, so, and then maybe it'll do traffic control. I haven't really thought of that. The the Tesla is probably there will be some merits to communicating for for Tesla to communicate to each other But that won't be needed for full self-driving at all and for long for a long time the

1:10:26The vast majority of cars on the road will be manually driven so the value of Tesla to Tesla communication is is not that high except for perhaps communicating traffic issues or accidents, potholes, things that may be helpful to road closures and that kind of thing. So it's like you're getting real time. A Tesla head of view is seeing a

1:10:51road closure and you get that real time updated to your car so you don't get stuck in the road closure situation. That's the kind of stuff that I think we definitely are working on right now. All right. All right. We have one last question and it's yours. Thank you very much. Hello, Elon. Hey. Simply, I would just like to say thank you for everything you've

1:11:13done for Earth and the community and everything you've done. I have one question, and aside from working for Tesla, being a shareholder or purchasing a Tesla, how can the masses help push your vision. All right, well I think just generally encouraging sustainable energy and being supportive of

1:11:34that I think is really helpful. So I say you're doing great so far. You know like I said without your support tells the wouldn't be where it is. So as people like yourself and everyone in this room and out there and the three million people who have bought our cars and the millions who have gotten solar. That all really helps

1:12:03make the world a better place for the future. I'd like to convey a message of optimism about the future. If we work really hard to accelerate sustainable energy, sustainable transport, The future will be good, you know, and I think, just make sure people know that. Like, and I'm not suggesting complacency at all.

1:12:30I'm literally saying, if we work hard towards a sustainable future, we will achieve it. And the future was bright. So, all right. All right, thanks guys, thank you. Thank you.

从现场发言里挑出的 10 句原话,附中文译文(AI 翻译,以英文原话为准)。点时间戳可跳到视频对应位置。

所以10年前,我们造了不到3000辆车。而10年后站在这里,我们已经造了超过300万辆。

So 10 years ago, we made less than 3,000 cars. And here we stand 10 years later, having made over 3 million.

▶ 3:48

我认为我们有望让 Model Y 今年成为按营收计最畅销的车型,明年成为按销量计最畅销的车型。

I think we're tracking to have Model Y be the highest of selling vehicle by revenue this year and the highest by unit volume next year.

▶ 14:56

电动车的平均生命周期排放显著低于汽油车。

The average life cycle emissions of an EV are dramatically lower than that of a gasoline car.

▶ 18:11

如果把 Tesla 太阳能板过去10年产生的所有能量加起来,它比制造我们所有汽车以及在超级充电站和家里给所有汽车充电所用的能量还多。

If you add up all the energy produced over the last 10 years by Tesla solar panels, it is more energy than was used to manufacture all of our cars and charge all of our cars at superchargers and at home.

▶ 18:44

最终所有汽车都会自动驾驶。而最难复制的东西是 Tesla 的制造技术。

eventually all cars will be self-driving. And the thing that would be hardest to replicate is Tesla's manufacturing technology.

▶ 25:59

我的猜测是,长期来看 Optimus 会比汽车更有价值。事实上,我认为它会颠覆整个经济的概念。

My guess is optimists will be more valuable than the car long term. In fact, it will, I think, turn the whole notion of what's an economy on its head.

▶ 33:00

现在做宏观经济预测是灾难的配方。但我猜我们已经过了通胀峰值,而且会有一场衰退。我认为那会是一场相对温和的衰退。

Now making macroeconomic prognostications is a recipe for disaster. But my guess is that we're past peak inflation and that we will have a recession. I think it will be a relatively mild recession.

▶ 46:21

我认为 Tesla 很可能会成为世界上最有价值的公司。

I think probably Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.

▶ 50:52

要理解一家公司,你必须使用它的产品。如果你认为产品很棒,那这家公司就很棒。

to understand a company, you must use its products. And if you think the products are great, then the company's great.

▶ 54:57

如果你是股东,一家公司其实就像未来现金流的净现值。所以一个季度并不是什么大事。

if you're a shareholder, a company is really like the net present value of future cash flows. And so one quarter is not really a big deal.

▶ 56:41

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