每送一吨有用的东西到火星表面,现在的价格大约是 10 亿美元。马斯克想把这件事的成本压到 10 万美元以下。
一万倍的差距。
这个数字他在 2022 年的一次参观里随口说出来的。当时 Everyday Astronaut 的 Tim Dodd 扛着摄像机走进德州 Starbase,马斯克一边带他穿过总装高舱(High Bay),一边聊星舰(Starship)和超重助推器(Super Heavy)的进展。整段对话没有发布会式的幻灯片,全是站在钢结构下面、指着正在焊接的筒段讲设计。
正因为是这种场合,信息密度高得离谱。很多决定在别处听不到解释,因为没人会专门为“为什么边条按 120 度分布”开一场发布会。
巨型总装厂房拼的是腰围,不是身高
从 High Bay 门口看过去,正在施工的 Mega Bay 只高了三四十英尺,大概九到十二米。马斯克特意点出这个视觉误差:站在地面上看,两者高度差不多,实际差别在宽度和进深。
Mega Bay 的可用面积大约是 High Bay 的四倍。
面积换来的东西叫工位。High Bay 里塞两三个正在装配的箭体就到头了,Mega Bay 能放至少十个工位,接近一打。马斯克的逻辑很干脆:低产率阶段 High Bay 够用,产率一上来就必须堆工位,因为一枚星舰或助推器的总装周期是被工位数量硬性限制的。
他给的工期是一个月左右完工。往后的规划更彻底:从一侧开始盖永久性厂房,逐步把现在的帐篷替换掉,High Bay 本身不会包起来,用他的话说那样太疯狂了。
这一条很能说明 SpaceX 的思路。外界看火箭公司喜欢看发动机、看试飞、看着陆成功与否,而马斯克在 2022 年花大量时间在盖厂房。因为要飞得多,就得造得快,造得快的前提是有足够多的工位同时开工。
把本来就要扔掉的气体,拿来做姿态发动机
参观到一半,聊的是一件很小的事,但它把马斯克的思维方式暴露得很清楚。
星舰和助推器的贮箱用的是自增压(autogenous pressurization):推进剂自身气化产生的热氧气和热甲烷给贮箱加压。早期设计里另有一套独立的冷气姿态控制系统,带氮气瓶,供入轨后的姿态调整和小幅轨道机动使用。
马斯克说,他在上一轮访谈里向 Tim 解释这套系统的时候,讲到一半突然停住了。
我当时正在跟你解释,然后心里冒出一句:等等,我们在干什么?这事根本说不通。(马斯克)
他意识到的是:飞船进入轨道后,主贮箱里的压力远高于再入所需,多余的气体无论如何都要排掉。而真空环境里姿态控制需要的冲量极小。既然气要扔,为什么不朝想要的方向扔?
于是独立的冷气姿控系统被整个删掉,直接改用泄压气体做反作用控制和小幅 Δv 调整。
助推器这边更顺理成章。发动机关机之后,助推器本来就要大量排气,排气的时间点又正好对上它掉头翻转的时机,两边需求天然重合。飞船这头还有一层:着陆点火用的是头部贮箱(header tanks),主贮箱只需要维持结构稳定所需的压力,再入前必须泄压,泄压这事跑不掉。
具体实现上,马斯克提到排气口本身就可以当推力器用,朝需要推力的方向开孔,没必要另造结构。将来可能会演变成阿波罗飞船那种四向喷口组。他还补了一句,着陆用的侧向推力器是另一套,只是这次没拍到。
这套改动被他称为“我们做过的最大的改进之一”。原先的热燃气推力器,他直接判定为过度设计且没有必要。
这条改进的来路本身也很说明问题。它来自一次对外解释。马斯克被迫把一个设计讲给外行听懂,讲到一半自己发现前提不成立。这种“讲出来才发现荒谬”的场景,在 SpaceX 内部应该反复发生。
Tim 当场追问:星舰要做对接、要做轨道机动,需要泄压的时机和需要机动的时机未必重合,气体供应能保证随时有吗?马斯克的回答是入轨后压力本来就过剩,取之不尽,用剩下的再排掉也不亏。这是少数几个“免费资源被浪费了好几年”的例子。
助推器侧面的四条边条,为什么按 120 度排布
Booster 7 停在发射台上,是当时最成熟的一枚。助推器工程负责人 Joe Petrolaco 介绍,这一枚比前几枚简化了大量结构,第一次总装时暴露的冗余被砍掉,很多零件被合并,同时加了新栅格舵和侧面的边条(chines,也可译作侧鳍)。
边条的作用容易被误解成增加翼展。真正的机制是让整个圆柱段的气流被“压住”。助推器底部挂了三十多台发动机,重心极低,再入时如果没有边条,它会本能地发动机朝前掉下来。加了边条之后,底部阻力面积增加,助推器能以更大的迎角俯仰,控制权限大幅提升,这对塔架捕获所需的落点精度直接相关。
它们按大约 120 度间隔排布,而非对称的 180 度。这个选择很反直觉,因为非对称布局的横截面积反而略小。
Petrolaco 的解释是:气流沿着圆柱体绕流时会逐渐泄压逃逸,把边条放低一点、错开一点,正好接住那些原本跑掉的气流。总的横截面积小了一点,但底部的积分压力更大。要的是整枚箭体感受到的净阻力,并非投影面积。
边条还顺手解决了另一个问题:复合材料缠绕压力容器(COPV)有了罩子。一物两用。马斯克对此心情复杂,他担心给 COPV 找了个家之后,团队会变得不那么积极地想办法把它们彻底去掉。不过他也承认这版边条非常原始,是第一次尝试,随时间会大改,优化的方向是底部越做越宽,最后看起来会像襟翼。
栅格舵留着,但可能只需要两片
既然要控制再入姿态,为什么还用猎鹰 9 上的栅格舵,而不换成更传统的稳定翼或鸭翼?马斯克说这是内部讨论频率极高的话题。
沿用栅格舵的理由是跨马赫数区间的一致性。从高超音速一路降到亚音速,飞行器要穿过好几个流态区间,栅格舵的表现比任何机翼形状都稳定得多。平板翼面在跨音速阶段压力中心会剧烈移动,作动器需要的扭矩随之暴涨。栅格舵的弦长极短,压力中心离转轴很近,需要的功率在整个马赫数区间变化不大。
换成机翼能不能更轻?马斯克认为很可能可以,但那是另一个待解的问题。他明确说现在的方案远非最优,只是能用,少一个待解决的问题。
数量上他给了更具体的判断。四片栅格舵明显过多,两片大概就够,绝不会超过三片,第三片还可以做小。2016 年最初那版星际运输系统(ITS)的方案就是三片。
为什么控制面可以做得这么小?因为再入时真正要对付的东西很有限:气动不对称、各种扰动、以及助推回推段的落点误差。猎鹰 9 早期试过纯弹道再入,理论上只要位置和风场预测足够准,什么都不装也能落回来。实际结果是任何微小的不对称都会让箭体转起来、开始振荡。控制面的任务是把这些扰动抵消掉,这并不需要多大升力。
另一个原因是栅格舵被反复缩小过,比最早那版轻得多。至于可收放设计,早年的想法是把栅格舵收进整流罩里躲开气流,现在的方案压根不收,省掉了整套机构。
星链卫星长得像 PEZ 糖果,所以舱门可以做得很小
紧挨着 Booster 7 的是 Booster 8 的液氧贮箱段,再往后是 Ship 24 的头锥,计划与 Booster 7 搭配做首次入轨发射。马斯克说这一枚比 Ship 20 精致了不止一点。
网上最关心的是背面那个小舱门。马斯克起初不太想拍,说这玩意儿不会让人惊掉下巴。后来还是给看了。
门小是因为货小。星链 V2 卫星是扁平的矩形,薄得很,像 PEZ 糖果盒里的糖片,叠放在头锥内部的架子上。既然货是薄片,就不需要巨大的铰链舱门。
小门带来的是结构上的连锁收益:头锥可以靠内压保持结构稳定,不需要为一个大开口做加强。马斯克提到,未来要运大件货物时当然可以开一个大得多的门,但现在这个方案省事太多。
内部的释放机构是电动的,原理照抄工业码垛机(pallet stacker)。马斯克说自己看过那些设备的视频,基本机制是一样的。他也没回避风险:地面装载时机构处于 1G 载荷,到轨道卸载时变成 0G,卸载过程中机构可能失去预载而卡死。这种失效模式必须专门测试。
他还顺口承认了这套内部机架带来的复杂度:比一颗糖片弹出去要麻烦,但整体思路仍然是糖果盒。
首飞就是真入轨,“只差一个屁的距离”
早期方案里讨论过 B4 搭配的那条路线:绕地球四分之三圈,在夏威夷附近再入,从来没打算跑完整圈。Tim 追问现在是不是改成真入轨了。
马斯克的回答是路线一直如此,下一次发射就是全轨道。四分之三圈和完整一圈之间只差每秒三十米左右的量级,用他的原话说,差的是一个屁的距离。既然差别这么小,多绕一圈毫无意义,白担一次风险。
对首飞成功率,他给的预期相当低。可能根本到不了轨道,问题可能出在助推器、级间分离、或者飞船发动机点不着。就算成功入轨,飞船完整再入返回的概率也不高。这正是再入点选在太平洋无人区的原因:出了问题不会伤到人。
隔热瓦为什么不叠瓦
有人问,龙飞船的防热大底是带搭接和厚度渐变的瓦片,星舰为什么用带缝隙的平铺方案。
马斯克的解释是热膨胀。瓦片受热会膨胀,缝隙会自己收紧,冷态下留出的间隙正是为热态准备的。至于热流从缝隙钻进去的问题,气动加热的方向也不是垂直灌入,因为再入有迎角,大约 67 度,跟航天飞机类似,气流斜着扫过表面。他承认判断可能有错,但团队认为缝隙方向上的热流不大。
迎角本身是算出来的。可复用防热层的核心约束是峰值热流,因为决定瓦片会不会熔化的是峰值,而瓦片一旦熔化就谈不上复用。为了压低峰值,飞行器要在稀薄的高层大气里多待一会儿,把速度尽可能耗在那里,避免带着高速扎进稠密大气。航天飞机的整个气动外形几乎就是围绕这条约束设计的,星舰走的是同一套逻辑。
首次再入的任务就是试。如果某些位置出现预料之外的加热,飞船会直接失败。至于让 Ship 20 单独做一次亚轨道飞行的旧计划,马斯克说已经放弃了,之前那些试飞该学的都学到了,老箭体放下去只会越来越旧。
推重比 1.4 到 1.5,为了省钱
三十三台猛禽同时点火,起飞推重比大约 1.4,也许 1.5。Tim 说这会是接近固体助推器的观感,一点火整枚火箭直接弹射出去,跟慢悠悠的液体火箭完全两回事。马斯克承认,看到那么大的东西加速那么快,视觉上会很违和。
接下来他讲的是钱。
可复用飞行器需要比一次性飞行器更高的推重比,因为推重比小于 1 的阶段,推进剂完全不做有用功。一次性火箭的成本大头是扔掉的箭体,燃料占比微不足道,所以推重比低一点无所谓。而一枚完全可复用的火箭,如果周转足够快,推进剂就是单次飞行里最大的成本项,这时候每一滴没做功的燃料都是直接亏损。
顺着这条线,马斯克给出了他真正的优化指标:每吨入轨成本(cost per ton to orbit)。这个数字没法作弊。
质量比和比冲都不是重点,这些东西都不重要。真正要看的是完全核算后的每吨入轨成本。任何技术的价值,只取决于它把每吨入轨成本降了多少。(马斯克)
按这个标准,推重比可能比比冲更重要,只要它能带来更低的每吨入轨成本。马斯克说他们也不总能判断对,但判断的依据始终是这个数。去月球或火星,同理,换成每吨到达月面或火星表面的成本。
从 10 亿美元到 10 万美元
然后他给出了那组数字。
目前把一吨有用的东西送到火星表面,成本大约 10 亿美元。这里的“有用”口径很严格:防热大底不算,降落伞不算,着陆系统也不算,只有火星车本身算。火星车重一吨,运过去就是 10 亿美元。
要让火星上出现一座自给自足的城市,这个数字必须压到 10 万美元一吨以下。
一万倍的差距。马斯克说这话时强调了一句:我们没在违反任何物理定律,这事是可能做到的。星舰的全部设计目标就是这个一万倍。
听上去像营销话术,但把它拆开看就能对上前面所有的技术选择。工位数量决定产率,产率决定单枚成本。删掉独立冷气系统省下的结构和氮气瓶,最后都要摊进每吨成本。可复用要求高推重比,高推重比省燃料,省燃料降成本。所有决策都指向同一个分母。
前襟翼让马斯克每次看到都心烦
飞船也要被发射塔的机械臂捕获,方案和助推器接近。麻烦之处在于:可复用防热层要包住超过 180 度的范围,捕获点不能放在迎风面,只能做成可翻出的结构,或者装在背风面某个能摆出来的部件上,用的时候伸出来,平时收进热盾后面。马斯克说真正的难点是那个热密封,机构本身还好办。
鼻锥上的襟翼不能当挂点用。
聊到前襟翼,马斯克的语气变了。他说自己真的不喜欢现在的前襟翼,每次看到都心烦,因为它们离最优差得太远。尺寸不对,位置也不对,应该更靠近背风面。这是内部争论很激烈的一个点。
接下来他抛出了一个更激进的可能:四个前襟翼有可能被彻底删掉。航天飞机就没有前襟翼,它主要靠双曲面控制(dihedral control)来管俯仰,一对后襟翼同时还能提供少量偏航和滚转。
为什么前襟翼的存在感这么强?因为飞行器的姿态由两个中心决定:压心和质心。把它当成一根跷跷板,空气推的是压心,重力拉的是质心。前襟翼和后襟翼都做得很大,压心可移动的范围就大,迎角的选择空间就大,对抗风切变的余量也大。但代价是质量、机构、热密封和复杂度。
他顺带提了一嘴苏联那个带折叠翼的试验飞行器,还有维珍银河的太空船二号。那些设计的共同点是模式切换:从一种构型整个翻到另一种,一次性完成,不需要动态调节。星舰要的动态精确控制,复杂度完全不在一个量级。
星舰在往下掉,它并不打算飞
马斯克用一句话总结了星舰和飞机的本质区别。
星舰最反直觉的地方是,它根本不算在飞,它正在掉下来。飞机要产生升力、水平飞行,我们要产生阻力、尽可能地拖着往下掉。两套优化方向刚好相反。(马斯克)
这句话能解释很多看起来奇怪的设计。为什么要那么大的襟翼,为什么边条要错开 120 度,为什么再入角要卡在 67 度附近慢慢磨,为什么隔热瓦不需要叠瓦。全部指向同一个目标:在下降过程中把速度耗尽,同时把峰值热流压住。
地面系统至少和火箭一样复杂
参观途中遇到了 Andy Krebs,负责高舱、厂房和地面系统这类非飞行硬件。马斯克的说法是,地面系统(stage zero)包括发射塔在内,复杂程度至少不亚于一级或二级。
这句话放在 2022 年听,份量很足。当时 Starbase 的发射塔正在成型,机械臂捕获的方案还只是纸面推演。后来的事实证明,塔和快速周转能力确实成了整个项目的瓶颈之一。
顺带一提,Ship 24 上的吊装点需要挪位置。马斯克指着上方的吊耳说,这些点的位置不对,不能让它落在贴隔热瓦的区域里。
至于 Starbase 会不会因为佛罗里达那边加速而减速,答案是否定的。永久厂房照建,帐篷照拆,两边同时推进。
怎么读这类访谈
这次参观没有宣布任何里程碑。没有发射日期,没有新的试飞计划,只有一堆站在半成品下面做的技术解释。
但它给出的东西比发布会实在得多:一个明确的成本目标,一套围绕这个目标的取舍逻辑,以及几处坦率的“我们还不确定”和“这个设计不好,但我也不知道更好的长什么样”。
马斯克说前襟翼可能被删掉,说栅格舵可能只剩两片,说边条非常原始,说隔热瓦缝隙的判断可能是错的,说首飞大概率出问题。这些话在公关层面毫无价值,在工程层面全是情报。
判断一家公司是不是真的在搞硬件,看它敢不敢在镜头前说自己的设计不好。
- 看到任何新参数、新构型,先问一句:它把每吨入轨成本降了多少?降不了的技术,再炫也只是工程练习。
- 检查有没有“本来就要扔掉的资源”被浪费。星舰把泄压气体变成姿控工质,这类免费午餐在每个系统里都藏着一份。
- 把产能指标放在性能指标前面看。Mega Bay 的工位数量比发动机海平面推力更能预示明年的发射频率。
- 读到“我们还不确定”“这版很原始”这类话,标红。那是真实进度表,比任何时间节点都可靠。
- 遇到再入、着陆类方案,先分清对象在生成升力还是生成阻力。搞错这一点,后面所有设计都读不懂。
- 跟踪项目进展时,多留意厂房、工位、地面系统这些不上新闻的基础设施,它们比试飞结果更早暴露真实节奏。
0:00Hi, it's me, Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut. Welcome to Starbase, Texas. Today, we're going inside Starbase with the Ultimate Tour Guide, Elon Musk. He's going to take us through the high bay to see where Starships are assembled. We'll also see the new Mega Bay under construction
0:14and talk about SpaceX's plans to get this rocket flying. Now, I must warn you, some of the things we talk about are pretty technical, but I've got a handful of videos to help you understand what we're talking about. There's links in the description to those videos. And stick around, because in the next videos we're going to go up the launch tower, then we'll see the new Raptor 2's up close and personal,
0:32and talk about the Falcon 9's Merlin engine in great detail. And if you happen to find this video valuable, consider dropping a super thanks as a tip, or become a channel member, or a Patreon supporter, for early access and to help show your support. Alright, let's get started. So we're making good progress with the Mega Bay over there.
1:02So that should be done in a month or so. That's tricky the scale from perspective wise right here it almost looks the same you know just from our perspective but it's about 30, 40 feet taller. Okay. So it's more about just this case. So Girth is more important than Langley. because we just need, we need to be able to construct more ships and boosters.
1:37And you can see like the high bay there is, it's okay if you've got like maybe two or three works in progress, but like you like maybe have two or three workstations in this, in the high bay. In the mega bay we can have like really almost a dozen, maybe at least ten workstations.
2:00So that's why the sort of with the length are more important there. Especially as we try to really get the production line going, we need more workstations. The high bay here is okay for making for a low production rate, but as you go to a higher production rate, you just need more workstations.
2:21Yeah. And so that's booster, right? Yeah. Or half a booster, half a ship it looks like. Yeah, exactly. It looks like you do have those, your vents there, the cold gas or the, the foliage gas vents? Yeah. Well, we're using the allage gas for attitude control. So instead of having separate attitude control thrusters, we're using the allage gas itself
2:57for attitude or reaction control. So basically for attitude control in, once you're in orbit, or basically when you're in a vacuum, you don't meet, the impulse needed is very low. So, in earlier design iterations, we had a separate cold gas attitude control system with nitrogen bottles, but that actually doesn't make a lot of sense since we've got a bunch of olives that we're gonna vent anyway.
3:26So might as well use the alleged gas for basically attitude control and small delta V changes on OVID. Yeah. Okay, I had to admit, I'm you taught us to question your constraints. So that makes sense to me for the booster, because the booster doesn't need to do, basically the second you turn the engines off, it's gonna need to want to vent a lot of its stuff anyway.
3:54And that's also corresponds with its first flip. But for a starship, like with docking maneuvers and stuff, how is, to me, in my head, the Venn diagram of needing to depress a tank and the Venn diagram needed to do a orbital maneuver don't always have a huge amount of overlap. So is, or is it not a concern?
4:14Is it always going to be on tap? When the ship gets to orbit, you're going to have still pretty high pressure in the oxen fuel tanks, which are autogenously pressurized. So you've got a hot gas disoxction and hot methane. And you have a lot more all this pressure. You actually don't need any more all this pressure.
4:45So you've got more pressure than you need. OK. and the deal a bit and the landing burns are done with the header tanks. So you actually wanna vent the main tanks down to just above atmospheric pressure. Well, really, you wanna have enough pressure in the main tanks for structural stability.
5:10So it's pressure stabilized, but not any more pressure than is needed for pressure stabilization for atmospheric entry. Right. And it's going to, but when it gets to orbit, it's going to have really a lot more pressure than is needed for atmospheric entry. So we would, in any case, end up venting the main tanks
5:34down to the pressure needed for reentry. And so we'd retossing that gas away. OK. So if it's free, you might as well use it. Yeah, we're going to dump the gas anyway. So then why have separate tanks and everything? You might as well use that gas for attitude control and small maneuvers.
5:57And then even then, we'll still end up dumping the remaining gas that's not needed for entry. OK. So because of that last statement, you'll be dumping it anyway. Definitely kind of. Yeah, actually, when you look at the old design, It's just like obviously it was pretty dumb to have a separate called gas reaction control
6:24system because we have excess, allaged gas. And if we simply have a main tank vents that vent in the direction that you'd want, then and there's no need to have separate other structures. You can literally just use the vent. So at some point, those will probably have almost an Apollo style four-way set of nozzles
6:57or something, right? Or because right now they're just facing pro-grade, basically. Yeah. So that would be for settling thrusters, basically, those ones up there. and there's this side thrusters that you don't see on right now that will be added. So side vents. And yeah. So it just still surprises me that they're not doing, you know, like capturing and doing
7:28some kind of high pressure or higher pressure, you know, hot gas thruster anymore when you have. No. The hot gas thruster was definitely over-engineered and unnecessary. So, just using all his guests for, for basically for for small thrust is the obvious move in this case. So, in retrospect, the obvious move.
7:53It's much more efficient than having separate cold gas thrusters. Well, guess not, not think about it. There's probably hasn't, there's never really been a rocket where the upper stage or the actual spacecraft is 99% of giant empty tank or a drained tank. Every other vehicle, space shuttle, very small amounts of just the ohms pods, basically, that stuff.
8:14But there's never really been a vehicle that's on orbit where it just went through a four or five minute burn. And now it needs to, yeah, that actually is really, really interesting. That's so crazy. So it's a significant optimization, mass and cost savings to use the ELLage Gas for attitude and reaction control that have separate cold gas
8:39trusters. I love it. I'd say that's like one of the biggest improvements that we've made. I got to admit that was one of you. We're talking about the last time. And I kept thinking about it. Actually, it was literally a curt to me in real time. It occurred to me while I was explaining it to you.
8:55I was like, wait, what are we doing? It was one of those things that kept just being like, that can't be right. But yeah, I mean, it is, it seems to be. Yeah. We kind of went through this exercise for the ship and then it was like, wait a second, we should do that for the booster as well.
9:16And that just occurred to me literally while I was doing the interview with you. Like, okay. Do you mind saying a few things or, or do I? What do you think we should discuss? I don't know. Yeah, I wanna see Elon's interviewing skills. Well, I mean, so this is Joe Petrolaco. He's head of a booster engineering.
9:42And I don't know if anything you want to say. Like, good point of things and describe. What's new on like seven and stuff? What are some of the new things you guys are working on? On booster seven, which is down at the pad right now, it's been quite an improvement over the first boosters So we built four and five.
10:01We simplified a lot of things. Like there was a lot of, you just learn when you put things together the first time we were able to get rid of a lot of it and combine a lot of it. It's got some new arrow features. So it's got upgraded grid fins and it has chines or strakes on the side of it.
10:14And those are gonna make the reentry performance much better. So we'll be able to actually come in at a lower velocity and get a higher precision when we're coming in to the tower catch. So we're really excited to try that out. Okay. Then I got one for both of you guys. Why are the strakes or whatever?
10:29What are the chimes? Chimes? Why aren't they 180? It sounds like wind chimes. It's just the chimes. It's just the chimes. It's just the chimes. Why aren't they 180 degrees to each other? It looks like they're about 140 or something offset. Yeah, they're about 120, actually. What they do, it's not about just increasing the wingspan, if you will.
10:50It's about getting the area of the cylinder of the rocket to pressurize. So those features help the rest of the rocket pressurized. So it's more than just the area of those chimes. You actually get more net drag on that section of the vehicle. At an angle, right? Not. Yeah. OK. So you're basically using that to increase the overall surface area when it's coming at some kind of angle of attack.
11:12So the booster is very, it's very bottom heavy with all of the engines down there. And so you're trying to actually add drag area down there as well. And when you do that, that can let the booster pitch up higher. Otherwise, if you don't have the chance, it wants to just come in first.
11:28So we're going to come in pretty button first. It's going to come in slightly less. Well, you can pitch it up 120 degrees. Yeah. You can get much more control authority. And further, and it's a little bit more than just increasing the cross-section of the vehicle. Because you're not coming in.
11:45The integrated pressure profile on the base. So you've got the sort of the experienced wind of is hitting the cylinder of the vehicle and then it's rolling around the cylinder and it's kind of like losing pressure as it rolls around. By having the chines be not 180 degrees but a little lower down, we're catching more of that air that's escaping.
12:15And so technically you actually have slightly less cross-sectional area, but you have more integrative pressure at the base. Gotcha. Let's keep moving quick while this machinery's firing up. But these are very primitive chines. Yeah. We've got first attempt and not expect to change them a lot over time.
12:33Well, one of the things that I love about it is that you're covering up the COPVs. So it's both a COPV arrow cover. Double use out of it. Double use out of it, which I love. I do fear that it makes us less rigorous about getting rid of COPVs. But more complacent that they're have a home.
12:50It's as many as we wanted under them. So they were still a person. Okay, good. But like if you say like what's, what are optimized chines, you'd actually want them to get bigger as you get. Wider at the bottom. Yeah, wider at the bottom. It begins to start looking like chip flaps.
13:05Yeah. Yeah. You can put the simulation right away. Especially as you're coming in, like you said with such a big amount of mass and basically a dry can above it, you'd really want the center of pressure to be as low as possible. Right. So that brings me to another question then.
13:20I'm curious why you guys are still sticking with grid fins instead of more traditional stabilator or some kind of conard or something. Well, this is a frequent topic of an conversation. Exactly. We discussed this a lot. I mean, essentially, our optimization right now is getting to a little bit.
13:41So there's a, yeah, so we know how to use grid fins from Falcon 9. Grid fins are much more consistent than flaps as you go from hypersonic to super sonic to trans sonic to subsonic. So you're going through these different markers regimes and grid fins are much more consistent than a wing or a wingy thing.
14:08Yeah. So, especially as you go subsonic, the center of pressure on any kind of flat surface shifts significantly when you go from supersonic to subsonic. So, but I, you know, could you be lighter than a Gritfen? I think there's a good chance you could be. There's also another factor which is the actuator power needed to turn a grid fin is much less
14:40than is needed for to turn a wing, a sort of a wing like thing. Similar. Yeah. Especially as that center of pressure changes. It increases the torque on the motor, right? You're necessarily going to be ordered so short that even if the center of pressure changes, it's not far from the rotation point.
14:59And so the total pork required does not change dramatically throughout your mock-breaking transitions. Yeah, yeah. We are constantly talking about can we have the right number of grid- Like for- They designed correctly. Yes, so like we're not saying we're right to be clear. Like we're definitely not optimal, but we, it'll work.
15:19Yeah. Like it's probably, we're working as good and it's one less problem to solve. It's also like we obviously don't need four. I think we could probably get away with two. Definitely not more than three. Well, you're old 2016 original OG ITS had three, and I remember that being a pretty unique design consideration.
15:49There's a number of iterations that this vehicle has gone through is insane. Before it even hit the pavement, it already iterated like... So many times. Well, I started questioning, you know, why, for me, I always thought the grid fin was a lot of it was being able to retract him on a cent, you know, get him out of the wind stream, but now that you're not retracting him, I was like, well, that and then also, you know, the actual mass savings, you know, 50% of your, the mass of a grid fin is perpendicular to your control
16:16motion, you know, your control authority. So I always wondered if like they, how that would, the trade would be on just, yeah, compared like normal wingy thing. If you know your position well and you know your wind's well, you can in theory have a ballistic arc when you do your boost back burn that is very accurate with nothing.
16:41Except, and we tried this in the early days of Falcon 9, but the problem is like Like any small asymmetries on the vehicle will cause it to go crazy, basically. It'll spin up and start flapping around and it'll just start oscillating and rotating. And. And. And. Yeah. Exactly. So technically you don't actually need massive surfaces.
17:14You just need to be able to take out the asymmetries of the, of perturbances on the vehicle, and any error that you have with respect to position or your boost back impulse. Yeah. And even wind conditions and things like that after a micro. Yeah. So you really don't, the control surfaces you need are actually not very big.
17:39And we've shrunk the grid fins significantly from where we started out. So they're much lighter. Yeah, but even with grid fins, we really should be moving to aspirationally two grid fins, but certainly not more than three. And the third one can be small. A little vestigial guy, and I like just imagining a tiny little guy.
18:06And I'm one sector. So, I think we have actually this is liquid oxygen tank section for booster 8. It's coming along very quickly right behind booster 7 and then the ship 24 nose comes. So this is the ship that we hope to bear with booster 7 for our first orbital launch. It's looking so much more refined already than even S20.
18:41Oh, can we see the door? On the back side of it? Corner. I mean, it's like a blow your mind. You'd be surprised, man. The internet sure loves that door. Yeah, you got to see the door anyway, so I guess why not. But because you're at this point planning to launch 24 with Starlink version 2 already, right?
19:12Yeah. Well, we'll see. But, I mean, it's just, like I said, it's not gonna blow your mind here, yeah. It's basically, it's like we call it the PES dispenser. Yeah. And it's kind of like that. It's the stalling satellites are, you know, in this rack, which looks like a friggin' PES thing.
19:43Cause they're like, you know, kind of like rectangular, just like a PES. and they're stacked inside the nose cone, inside the bearing. And since they're low profile, we only need really a small door. With a small door, we can use pressure stabilization. Like, we're going to retain pressure in the bearing.
20:05So we can, at least partially, pressure stabilize the nose cone. Oh, fairing. And then we don't have a humongous hinged door. But might later on, which larger pieces of cargo and things like that. Yeah, we can make a giant door in the future. But this, a small door always, a lot less than a giant door.
20:29Yeah, yeah. I would say, for a sense, that we could come up like third. Yeah, I feel like it just begs the camera. It's going wrong, we clear. Yeah, if the mechanisms inside jam up, that'll be pretty embarrassing. Right, right. But it looks like it's just begging to have like two big googly eyes with a funny looking grin there, you know, or something.
20:50So we are incurring some complexity for the sort of the racking system inside, because you've got to have a racking system. So it's more complicated than a pessus pesser. But it's the general principle, is it like spring loaded then or hydraulic loaded or something? It's a bunch of electric, it's electric.
21:15And with a bunch of mechanisms. And they just like roll themselves out and just zip out the door and... Sorry. It's inspired by pallet stacking technology. Yes, like I watch YouTube videos of a pallet stacker. Exactly, exactly. And industrial pallet stackers is the same basic principle.
21:37They don't look super simple, but they do work. And so it's the same basic mechanism. I mean, there's some risk of, you're loading it in at one G and then you're unloading it at zero G. So you could have some situation where you're unloading a mechanism and because you unload the mechanism, it now binds.
22:05So that's the risk that we best hard to test for. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. What? So you're planning to actually do your first set of Starlink version 2s on this vehicle? Or wait, is this 25 or 24? Is this 24? Which is currently scheduled-ish to be the first orbital attempt, right? So you are.
22:29So has the plan changed to go from kind of a suborbital to an orbital launch if you're going to be trying to pop out a couple star links. No, we're always going to go here. Our next launch is always going to be orbital. Full orbital, not? Yes. OK. So that would? Well, yes. I mean, yes.
22:47Well, cool. OK. Because for a little while, there's talk about B4 and stuff, and that's pointing back in the day doing like a just shy of orbit on the re-entered by Hawaii and stuff like that, never quite reaching. It's basically orbit. OK, yeah. There's no real difference. Mouse fart between them.
23:01Yeah, I mean, you could just, it's the difference between, I mean, you're going like three quarters the way around the earth. Yeah, I mean, you could. Was literally like 30 meters per second difference. So it's a layer is as small. Yeah, it's essentially over the last C. So there's just no point in doing, like why not, why do an extra loop around the earth, and have another, the overgrown.
23:27So. But really, I wouldn't say that there's like, high confidence that the first flight will work. I think there's a good chance that it does not reach orbits, that there's an issue with the booster or stage separation or what the ship doesn't start or, and then even if it does get to orbits, there's probably that the ship makes it down in tact is also not super high.
23:53This is why it's entering over the Pacific an unpopulated area. So if there is an issue, it's not a danger to people. Yeah. So one of the things that a lot of people were asking about after, once we started seeing the heat shield tiles, is why they aren't scaled like a dragon or like a rough shingle where they're
24:14slightly overlapping and tapering and thickness. You know, why are they just have the gaps and everything. I mean, you know, there's multiple ways to approach this. So it's not that like a single approach, it couldn't work. You could have a single approach. The thing that will happen or should in theory happen here is that when the tiles get hot, they will expand and
24:46tighten the gap. So the gaps that you see here should be smaller when the tiles heat up. And you know, you're really not gonna see a lot of heat going down through those gaps is our expectation.
25:07So, shingling does not seem to be important. You could be wrong about that. So, it's kind of a ramen vehicle. Yeah. It's close to trying to burn. Right, right. Yeah, the flow is not coming straight in at those gaps. It's like... It's, yeah, I mean we'll be coming in at an angle similar to the shuttle, like, I don't know, 67 degrees.
25:30So sort of like, if the ground is the surface of the earth, we're sort of coming in like that. Yeah. And it's a balance between generating lift. Like, for a reusable heat shield, we want to minimize the peak heat load. So the peak heat load is going to determine if we melt the tiles or not.
25:50And if you melt the tiles, they're not very good for reuse. So we're kind of balancing between generating lift. And yeah, so there's atmospheric density, velocity, and you don't wanna have like, be going fast in high density air. That's gonna be. You wanna kind of stay up in the upper atmosphere for a little bit longer than you would.
26:20You wanna slow down as much as possible in the thin upper atmosphere. So you minimize peak heating. That's the best goal. Minimize peak heating. Which is pretty much what designed the whole shuttle's airframe almost was that peak heating and controlling that peak, that peak queue.
26:39Yes, so we're gonna learn a lot from this first entry. I like said, if there's any issues, the ship will not, you know, if there's unexpected heating in some places, then the ship will fail on entry and it'll be that. Yeah. Is there any talks, speaking of failing and re-entry and all those things?
27:08And we guys, there were rumblings for a little bit, you guys, someone was talking about flying ship 20 still, or S20. Just on a sub-orbital. Yeah, we've moved on. ,
27:34We think we've learned, you know, what we need to learn really with the cybervital flights. And there wasn't really much to learn, so best of folks aren't getting too old. Okay. I mean, yay, but also, I don't know. I'm quite excited about that. Yes, true. Yeah, those 33 rappers I think will put on a pretty, that'll make up for the slow,
27:54slow gentle climb will be 33 shaking everything. I think what it will seem pretty pretty odd or like strange is that the Starship orbital stack is going to come off the pad very fast. Yeah. So yeah, it's got a high thrust weight. What's its best approximate thrust weight? I mean it should be like 1.4, maybe 1.5.
28:16Yeah. That's like already on five speeds because SRB's, once that, those lights, that thing just shot off, shoots off the pad, you know? Yeah. be like that. I mean it's yeah. I'm being disoriented to see something that big just accelerating that quickly you know it'll. For a reusable vehicle you actually want to have a higher thrust to
28:39weight than an expendable vehicle because thrust weight below one is not doing anything. So your propellant is not being useful below thrust weight of one so you actually want to have a higher thrust to weight for a reusable vehicle than for an expendable. For an expendable vehicle, the cost overwhelmingly is in the vehicle itself that you are losing.
29:04But for a reusable vehicle, if it's rapidly reusable and completely reusable, the cost of propellant is the single biggest cost of the flight. And so you want to have a high thrust to wait so that more of the thrust is useful. Yeah. So high thrust to wait, Rachel, literally is financially beneficial purely on the,
29:28you need less fuel to do the same kind of work. Like this may sound sort of mercantile, but it's actually the thing to optimize for is cost per ton to orbit. Like you can't cheat if you get cost per ton to orbit. It's not about what the mass ratio is or the ISP or anything. So although we're aiming to have a great match ratio, a great ISP, everything, but it's really what is your fully considered cost per ton to orbit.
30:01At the end of the day, yes, the fully considered cost per ton to orbit is the optimization. And any given technology is only relevant to the degree that it produces cost per ton to orbit. So thrust-to-weight ratio might matter more than ISP as long as it makes for a lower cost per ton to orbit.
30:19Yes. So the trade offs always end up with, does it decrease the cost per ton to orbit? And that's what matters more than it. That's racially, we don't always get right, but the thing that really matters is minimize cost per ton to orbit. And then for Mars or the moon, minimize cost per ton to the surface of the moon or to the
30:40surface of Mars. And just to give you a sense of just how much we need to improve it, it's really insane. Like right now the cost per useful landed ton to serve some Mars is inaccessible a billion dollars. So you can't count the heat shield or the parachute or the useful stuff. So the landing system's mass does not count.
31:07Only the, like in the case of the rovers, it's really just the rover that is the useful thing. So if the rover weighs a ton, then it costs a billion dollars to get there. It's a billion dollars per ton to Mars. And that's roughly what it currently costs. Now in order to make life multi-planetary and have a self-sustaining city on Mars, that
31:44number will have to improve to I think probably under $100,000 a ton. That would be a 10,000 times better than the current state of the art. To put this into perspective, how much of an improvement is needed? About 10,000 percent, 10,000 fold. That's what Starship is intended to do.
32:11Be 10,000 times better than the current state of the art. So, orders and orders and orders of magnitude. A lot of orders of magnitude. But it is, we're not breaking any laws of physics. It is possible to do that. Can we see up at the top or is there anything to see up there right now?
32:32now. Not really anything to see. I mean, I think we probably shouldn't take pictures of the inside. Not that it's super interesting, but I think we're going to be cautious about like pictures of the inside of so. Where's the lifting points on this one now? You can see the lugs up there.
33:14I mean, we need to move those lifting points. Those are out in a good position. So you don't want to have lifting points where the heat shield tiles are. We need to move the lift points to where the heat shield tiles are not. Are you still hoping to catch the ship too with the arms or what's the...
33:35I mean you are right? Yeah. How are you going to catch it I guess? Are you going to do the same thing with the tiny little lumps? Like the booster? Yeah, I mean it'll be very similar to the booster with In the case of the ship because we need to have huge hill tiles that go more than 180 degrees a little more than 180 degrees
33:58We'll have to have the Catch points kind of flip out But it'll otherwise be in the in the lead way the win Like you'd have to I mean this you'd have to have a part with he chills house pop out or or have something that's in the leeward side that swings out. One of the two. And you can't just have the, you can't catch them by the nose fins.
34:24You will sort of could, well, like what you're seeing there that doesn't have heat shield tiles will need to have heat shield tiles. Yeah, yeah. So everything's gonna have heat shield tiles. Just, you see a steel part at the base of the, but that'll have to have tiles on it. If it's attached, if the mounting point would be attached to somewhere on the leeward side of the flap,
34:50and the flap could rotate more than 180 degrees, it could get in line with this. It could be the same mechanism that does the quickie thing, could be just the flap itself. I'm not sure I understand what you're saying, but... If the catch ball thing is on the leeward side of the flap,
35:10and the flap can go beyond 180 degrees... Oh, that's... man. There's not the problem you want us to try solve. The huge challenge we have is the hot gas seal. Oh, right. You'd move that in the morning. Over center of that. Yes. Like frankly, the thing we need to do, I think, is move the Ford flaps more towards the leeward side.
35:33This is a major internal debate. But there's a massive amount of optimization possible with the Ford flaps. They're in the wrong position. The wrong size, wrong position, wrong location. But they will work. Yeah, they're a start. Yeah, they'll work but they're far from optimal. What are the, under those one heap shields, you see the little, those like yellow puck things.
36:04What are those in, are those special or something? Just temperature sensors. Oh, I think so. either temperature or radio. I'm not sure. Okay. So, here are the antennas or temperature sensors? Well, what else is new since last time we were out here? Well, we're pulling the mega bay.
37:19What got you? Here's turning now. No, just this, I mean, there's a lot of improvements to make with the ship and booster design. But anyway, right now the important thing is just to get to orbit with, you know, some reasonable payload and then we have a whole series of improvements that we plan to
37:41improve the performance of the payload to orbit. But I really am not a fan of our forward claps. Like every time I look at them drives me crazy because they're so sub-optable. Well, your rate of innovation and your rate of iteration, those will be different sooner than later, I'm sure.
38:08Yeah, I mean, there's a potential scenario where we can delete the four claps entirely. And the shuttle doesn't have four claps. Right. that's because you're using dihedral control to control mostly pitch and you can still do a little bit of yawn roll with just a pair. So, huh. Because it's mostly about your center
38:39pressure, right? So, center of mass and center of pressure. It's a CISO. So you can just think of these things like the you've got a seesaw and your center of pressure like
38:58the wind the air is hitting the vehicle and you have a center of pressure it's like where's the where's that air gonna push the vehicle like If you add up all the wind pressure, where if you're pushing it with your finger, where would you, what's the center of that force gonna be?
39:26And then you've got your center of mass, which is a similar thing, but for mass. So you've got these sort of two C-saw things, center pressure, center of mass. If you have big forward flaps and big rear flaps, you can have a much more variation in where your center of fast is gonna be.
39:46And also what your angle of attack can be and how well you control the vehicle and different macho regimes and in the face of like a lot of wind shear, wind buffet. So. Because there is that, again, Soviet, like I don't remember what it's called, the mole or something that just had a dihedral wing on the back, it's supposed to be like a mini shuttle for them, like a two passenger Charon.
40:14What was that? The baron. No, not baron. No. It had like it's had foldable wings. And they basically the only thing is over those are fixed. They weren't dynamic. You know, so it's not like they controlled its pitch, but it basically had a really was supposed to have a really high angle of attack during initial ascent.
40:30And then the the back flaps just folded down. And but that was to extend basically have actual lift and do a horizontal landing. It wasn't necessarily like a dynamic link. But the idea was that you could control your overall, you know, pitch almost like, you know, virgin galactic spaceship two that folds in half, you know, how it can change its
40:49its whole center pressure and everything just, you know, in a single thing. But it's not again, that's not dynamic. It goes from one mode to mode one to mode two, you know, and same with that that Soviet one. But yeah, there's, you know, that probably becomes a lot trickier when you are trying to be dynamic and we are trying to actually
41:05pinpoint control your landing. I'm sure that it was just having a The thing that's like really counter-tutive about the Starship is that it's not an aircraft, it's falling. So we're just constantly trying to break as opposed to an aircraft that is, aircraft is trying to generate lift and fly horizontally.
41:26We are trying to generate drag and be as draggy as possible when we fall. So it's a very different optimization than an aircraft. So, yeah. It's about four times the usable area of the high bay. So it's only a little bit taller, but it's a lot wider and deeper. And so we have a lot more positions for, you may factoring the booster or the chip.
42:03So if you have a production line, you need a lot of stations, essentially, for a high production. So this is intended to have a lot of stations. Is some of this getting replaced by another building that's over top of some stuff, or is it? We are building a permanent battery building and replacing the tents.
42:27With the high bays and a one-way building. We're not building a building to encompass the high bay. That would be insane. But we're all going to be building a permanent factory building and replacing the tents. And we'll start the factory building from that side and kind of both and gradually replace the tents with a large permanent building.
42:48That's actually currently in the works, I guess. So you're still, you know, there's a lot of speculation, obviously with how quickly Florida's ramping up that this might be slowing down, but that doesn't seem to be slowing down too much if you're building a building out here. Yeah.
43:03Yeah. Hey, my, I'm Tim. Hi, Andy Krebs. Awesome. Yeah, sorry, what was your name? Andy Krebs. OK, cool. I was engineering for the non-quite hardware, so I do the high bays and factory up the spot for those who also launch the Google stage zero. A lot of the stage zero stuff. Yeah.
43:21The ground systems are, ground systems, especially inclusive of the tower, are at least as complicated as the stage one or stage two. Yeah. So should we go check out stage zero? Sure. Ha ha. Thank you, Elon, for all your generous time and thank you, Ryan Schlinski, for helping shoot and capture this incredible conversation.
43:53And I owe a huge thank you to my Patreon supporters for helping make videos like this possible. If you want to help me continue to do what I do, head on over to patreon.com slash Everyday Astronaut. And while you're online, be sure and check out our awesome merchandise shop where you can find shirts like this, the RD-171 shirts, And lots of other really cool stuff at everydayassmod.com slash shop.
44:11Thanks everybody that's going to do it for me. I'm Tim Dodd, the Everyday Astronaut. I bring you space down to Earth for everyday people.
热燃气推进器绝对是过度设计,而且没有必要。
The hot gas thruster was definitely over-engineered and unnecessary.
从高超音速到超音速、跨音速再到亚音速,栅格翼比襟翼稳定得多。
Grid fins are much more consistent than flaps as you go from hypersonic to super sonic to trans sonic to subsonic.
但说实话,我不会说我们对首飞成功有很大信心。
But really, I wouldn't say that there's like, high confidence that the first flight will work.
所以在推重比低于一时,你的推进剂没有被有效利用,因此可重复使用飞行器实际上需要比一次性飞行器更高的推重比。
So your propellant is not being useful below thrust weight of one so you actually want to have a higher thrust to weight for a reusable vehicle than for an expendable.
归根结底,是的,全面核算后的每吨入轨成本才是优化目标。
At the end of the day, yes, the fully considered cost per ton to orbit is the optimization.
所以如果一辆火星车重一吨,把它送到那里就要十亿美元。也就是到火星每吨十亿美元。
So if the rover weighs a ton, then it costs a billion dollars to get there. It's a billion dollars per ton to Mars.
我们是在尽量产生阻力,下落时让阻力尽可能大。所以这和飞机的优化方向完全不同。
We are trying to generate drag and be as draggy as possible when we fall. So it's a very different optimization than an aircraft.
所以如果你要建生产线,本质上就需要很多工位来实现高产量。
So if you have a production line, you need a lot of stations, essentially, for a high production.
地面系统,尤其是包括发射塔在内,至少和一级或二级一样复杂。
The ground systems are, ground systems, especially inclusive of the tower, are at least as complicated as the stage one or stage two.
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