访谈·中文精读

马斯克谈生命、宇宙及一切:访谈第2部分

Elon Musk on Life, The Universe and Everything: Interview Part 2

中文精读由 AI 基于原始视频与文稿改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原视频为准。说明

2008年10月,马斯克飞了一趟德国,去戴姆勒(Daimler)总部谈合作。那时候特斯拉快没钱了,他自己说得很直白:我们需要某种形式的合作,不然就完蛋了。

戴姆勒的人告诉他,他们在考虑做一款电动Smart。

马斯克问,如果真做,你们想什么时候看到车?

对方说,2009年1月有一个代表团要去美国。

三个月。

三个月后,一辆挂着墨西哥牌照的汽油Smart,装着Roadster的动力总成和改装过的电池包,停在了特斯拉的停车场里。

从墨西哥买一辆Smart,塞进Roadster的心脏

麻烦在于,Smart当时在美国根本不卖,墨西哥有。

于是特斯拉派人去墨西哥买了一辆,直接开过边境。就是一辆普通的汽油Smart,挂墨西哥牌照。然后工程团队把Roadster的驱动单元和改造过的电池包塞了进去,还得保证不侵占车内空间。到第二年1月戴姆勒代表团来的时候,这车真的能跑了。

马斯克回忆起那场会,说戴姆勒的人从头到尾都很不高兴,明显是想尽快离开这间会议室。他们完全不知道有一辆电动Smart在等着他们。

会议开局就很糟。特斯拉先放了PowerPoint,对方脸色更差了。马斯克说,因为PPT里什么都能成立,而他们已经看了太多PPT,几乎是准备起身走人的状态。

他停下来问了一句:你们想不想开开这车?

对方愣了:什么意思?

我们有辆电动Smart,就在停车场,你们可以开。

你们不可能有电动Smart,这不可能。

能开。

那辆车的推重比相当离谱。马斯克说,你能在Smart里烧胎,能翘头,踩下去前轮能离地。一辆四轮车被搞成这个样子,看着就很怪。没人见过电动Smart长这样。

他们彻底傻眼了,问这是什么黑魔法,你们是怎么弄出一辆电动Smart的。(马斯克)

答案很朴素:三个月前从墨西哥买了一辆,塞进Roadster动力总成,改了电池包,内饰空间完全没动。

戴姆勒随后同意做小批量电动Smart。这件事的性质,马斯克讲得很清楚:那是为了应付监管机构,戴姆勒当时并没有电动化的大愿景。车队的平均油耗指标压着,必须有一定数量的零排放车,否则就要挨罚。做燃料电池车更贵,做电动车便宜些。所以这本质上是一笔合规车(compliance vehicle)生意,目标是用最少的钱把监管者打发走。

后来合作延伸到电动A级、B级车,但始终是低产量、高价格的边缘产品。戴姆勒当年不愿意在电动车上押大注。

救了特斯拉的是戴姆勒的5000万,政府贷款只是加速器

2008年12月,戴姆勒投了4000万美元,给了特斯拉大约6个月的跑道,撑到2009年6月。整个投资规模在5000万美元左右,换大约10%的股份,投后估值约5亿美元。

这个时间点有多难,得放到背景里看。通用汽车正在破产,克莱斯勒正在破产。没人愿意投一家汽车初创公司,更别说电动车公司。

马斯克说,那时候“电动车公司”和“蠢车公司”是同义词。你可以直接把“电动”替换成“蠢”:你想投资一家蠢车公司吗?在大多数人耳朵里,听起来就是这样。

戴姆勒投这笔钱还有个小心思:他们隐约觉得大众集团可能会投特斯拉,不想让这事发生。马斯克补了一句,大众其实根本不会投。大众那边表达过一点初步兴趣,然后就消失了。最后唯一对特斯拉有兴趣的投资人,就是戴姆勒,而动机来自那个电动Smart项目。

那笔“政府贷款”其实是一张报销单

外界普遍认为特斯拉是靠美国能源部(DOE)的贷款活下来的。马斯克专门纠正了这一点。

2009年年中,特斯拉收到一封来自DOE的意向书,金额大约5亿美元。听起来像是救命钱,实际运作方式完全是另一回事:你先花钱,把发票交给DOE,DOE审核之后按实际支出报销给你。钱是事后的,滞后两到三个月。这笔钱没法当作前期资本去启动任何事情。

而且这封意向书直到2010年才变成有约束力的文件。特斯拉收到的第一笔报销款,大概在2010年3月或4月,那时候经济衰退已经过去了。

马斯克的原话是:如果特斯拉真的需要靠这笔贷款,公司早就破产了。

更麻烦的是审批方会不停地质疑商业计划。马斯克描述那种对话:我们说这个方向走下去会死,得换个方向。对方说,但计划里写的是那个方向。我们说,按那个计划走公司会死。对方说,可计划就是计划。

想推动DOE同意改计划,得费掉大量精力。所以2010年IPO之后,特斯拉立刻把那笔贷款还了,还付了提前还款罚金。算上利息和罚金,美国纳税人在这笔贷款上是赚了钱的。

对照另一组数字:通用汽车拿了大约300亿美元的救助,基本等于纳税人的无偿捐赠。马斯克说,据他所知还有140亿美元没还,而且大概永远不会还。福特拿了50亿美元贷款,但福特财务状况更好,马斯克认为福特家族比当时管通用和克莱斯勒的人更有长期思维。

他给了一个判断:到今天为止,没有破产过的美国车企只剩特斯拉和福特。Rivian和Lucid如果不发生重大变化,都在通往破产的路上。他对Rivian的建议是立刻全面大幅削减成本,否则就是死路一条。

7500美元的补贴,特斯拉一分钱没拿到

还有一件事被反复误传:特斯拉靠电动车补贴发的家。

事实是,美国那7500美元的电动车税收抵免,是通用和日产在华盛顿游说下来的。特斯拉在DC基本没有游说力量。而且现在这项抵免对特斯拉已经不适用了,因为特斯拉累计产量早就超过20万辆的上限。任何还没撞到这条线的公司都能享受,特斯拉不能。

如果明天取消所有电动车的税收抵免,特斯拉的竞争地位会立刻显著改善。我再说一遍:取消所有电动车税收抵免,特斯拉的位置会立刻变好。(马斯克)

这个差距有多大?一辆4万美元的车,7500美元抵免相当于接近20%的价格差。竞争对手享受着实质性的税收优势,特斯拉照样打赢了。

马斯克还补了个时间细节:2008年刚创办特斯拉时,加州油价不到2美元一加仑,一分钱补贴都没有。当时他对特斯拉成功概率的估计是低于10%,对SpaceX也是同样的估计。

这话听着像谦虚,换成常识来理解更准确。美国历史上曾出现过上千家汽车初创公司,全部死了。2008到2009年那场衰退里,通用和克莱斯勒也破产了。一个从没造过车的人去创办车企,还觉得成功概率很高,那才是不正常。

他最初的打算是:把PayPal套现的钱拿出一半,浪费在两个荒唐的想法上,一个火箭公司一个汽车公司,亏光了还剩9000万美元,无所谓。结果他最后把所有的钱都投了进去。如果两家公司都没活下来,他会背上大量债务,个人破产。

为什么新造车公司几乎必死

马斯克讲了一个他从一位汽车业投资人那里听来的道理。那位投资人自称是全球最好的汽车投资人,是在柏林 Axel Springer 总部颁给他一个奖的时候凑过来讲的:你知道你为什么会失败吗?

道理是这样的。车企在新车销售上基本不赚钱,钱都来自给存量车队卖零件。

一辆车从出厂到进废车场,寿命大约20年,保修期通常4年,还有一堆东西不在保修范围内。这意味着稳态车队的八成车辆已经脱保,可以卖高毛利的替换零件。新车可以按接近零毛利卖,靠售后赚钱,典型的剃刀和刀片模式。

这构成了一道新公司几乎无法翻越的墙:你没有存量车队。

所以新车企唯一的活路,是把车卖得比对手贵很多,而且还得有人买。这就要求产品好到让人愿意为它支付溢价。

马斯克的结论是:只有电动化加上自动驾驶,这两件事同时做到,这条路才走得通。少一样都不成立。

性价比和买得起,是两回事

马斯克说,他经常和华尔街的投资人聊这个话题,发现他们脑子里只有一根弦。

这里面有两个完全不同的变量:性价比(value for money)和基本可负担性(fundamental affordability)。住在曼哈顿、账上有几千万美元的人,只会想第一个。在他们眼里所有车都买得起。

现实是,如果一个人银行账户里的钱不够,他就是买不起,哪怕你把产品的诱惑力调到无限。马斯克的原话大意是:你可以把这车做得能变成喷气机、自己造一座私人岛屿送你过去,但只要价格超过人们能承受的线,他们就是买不了。

价格越高,能负担得起的人群比例呈指数级下降。车价一旦超过10万美元,能买的人就非常少了,无论它多好。

而新公司被固定成本压着,必须有足够的销量来摊薄。如果成本高到只能定一个极少数人买得起的价格,销量上不去,固定成本覆盖不了,就进了死胡同。马斯克把这个叫“末日角落”。

他认为Rivian正卡在这里,必须马上改,否则麻烦很大。

一个睡着的司机,撞死了一个骑行者

Autopilot为什么会那么早被推上路?马斯克给了一个具体的原因。

大概2014年,湾区一位Model S车主在驾驶时睡着了,车偏离道路,撞死了一名骑行者。

马斯克说,如果当时车上哪怕只有最基础的车道保持,那个骑行者现在还活着。这件事让他意识到必须尽快把辅助驾驶做出来,这是一条真实的安全问题。

故事还有后半段。那位撞死人的车主没有承担责任。他把责任推给特斯拉,说自己睡着是因为新车的气味。他真的找了律师,对特斯拉提起诉讼,理由是新车味道让他犯困。

马斯克说,法院记录里能查到这件事,自己没编。法官当然觉得这说法荒谬。

这件事对马斯克的意义是双重的:一方面说明Autopilot有多重要,另一方面也说明人不愿意把责任担在自己身上,是一种多么普遍的本能。

彩蛋的本质是面积

聊到车内彩蛋,马斯克说他最喜欢的是Model X的“巫师冬日舞蹈”(Wizarding Winter Dance),也就是那套圣诞灯光音乐秀。它没有任何实用价值,纯粹是娱乐。

他估计至少三分之二的Model X车主根本不知道自己的车能干这个。

另一个彩蛋是连续四次点击Autopilot拨杆,屏幕会变成《马里奥赛车》的彩虹赛道。这个设计的麻烦在于它太容易被误触,很多人是稀里糊涂点出来的,然后怀疑自己是不是疯了。

还有一个:把车名改成“42”,车尾标识会变成“银河系漫游指南”。把车名改成某些特定名字,车会进入詹姆斯·邦德的潜水车模式。

有人建议加一个正向反馈按钮,让车主在车辆表现特别好的时候也能标记,毕竟现在只能报告出问题的情况。马斯克的回答只有一句:

所有输入都是错误。(马斯克)

他解释了自己对彩蛋的取舍标准:要最大化的是“人数乘以平均快乐程度”这条曲线下的面积。一个只有0.01%的人知道、但知道的人极其快乐的彩蛋,面积很小。真正值得做的是很多人都会体验到、并且都能获得不错快乐的东西。

他自己承认,这块做得还不够。有些功能做得太隐蔽,比如那个冬日舞蹈,操作起来太复杂,违背了彩蛋的基本原则:应该最大化知道它的人数,而不是最小化。

车里的浏览器比五年前的iPad还烂

马斯克主动说了一段自我批评。

车里的网页浏览器很糟糕,加载慢,用起来体验差,比五年前的iPad差一大截。Model X的后排屏幕和空调控制需要大量改进。后排娱乐是个好东西,孩子在后排看YouTube确实改变了用车体验,但音频路由没做好:前排的人听音乐,后排同时在放儿童节目,声音会直接轰到前排。

正确做法是后排音频独立,或者路由到一副绑定后屏的蓝牙耳机。

但这些都是次要的。他明确说了优先级:压倒一切的重点是解决全自动驾驶(FSD)。这件事决定了特斯拉是值很多钱,还是基本一文不值。

白宫那场没请特斯拉的峰会

话题转到政治,马斯克的表述很直接。

他说,去年拜登总统办了一场电动车峰会,特斯拉被明确排除在外,而全美汽车工人联合会(UAW)被邀请了。特斯拉生产了美国三分之二的电动车。

在白宫办电动车峰会,刻意排除我们,却把UAW请进去。这件事说明了一切。(马斯克)

他的判断是:UAW宁可特斯拉死掉,或者被工会化,但绝对不能接受特斯拉活着并且没有工会。UAW从来不是可持续能源的支持者,一路上都在跟可持续能源作对。

关于工资,他给了一个反例:特斯拉的薪酬是汽车行业里最高的。弗里蒙特工厂的员工手上有五个其他工作机会。湾区的失业率是负的,招人极其困难。公司真正的挑战是怎么说服人留下来,而不是怎么防工会。加州是极度亲工会的州,如果UAW想进来,加州会铺红地毯,谁也拦不住。但UAW连一场投票都凑不齐人,更别说拿到50%。

所以他们的策略转向了别的地方。马斯克的说法是:如果公司由一个口碑不错的人管着,工会就很难组织,因为大家会想,他是好人啊,为什么要工会化这家公司?所以必须先把这个人搞臭。他认为从2017年起,UAW就一直在对他进行抹黑行动。时间点也吻合:UAW认为特斯拉快破产的时候没必要搞这些,等到觉得特斯拉可能不会死了,抹黑就开始了。

他提了一个细节:UAW的前任主席被送进监狱,接任的、本来被当作清理门户的那个人,后来也被送进监狱。这两件事让UAW的攻击消停了一阵,最近几个月又回来了。

然后是他最常举的那个例子。拜登在一次活动上和通用CEO玛丽·博拉(Mary Barra)同台,祝贺她领导了电动化革命。马斯克说,就在同一个季度,通用交付的电动车是26辆。2.6万辆?没有,就是26辆。特斯拉同期交付了30万辆。这个数字不是外人编的,是通用自己在财报里写的。

马斯克否认这是阴谋论。他的说法是,任何中立的观察者看看这些行为,只能得出一个结论,民主党不支持特斯拉,仅仅因为它没有工会。而且压力会越来越大,因为特斯拉越成功,对UAW的生存威胁越大。

他还分析了加州的政治结构。他认为控制民主党的两股力量是工会,其次是原告律师群体(plaintiff bar),尤其是打集体诉讼的那批人。逻辑链条是这样的:律师出钱帮助官员当选,官员制定容易打赢官司的立法,律师拿到巨额赔偿,再拿钱帮助更多官员当选。循环往复。

他提到一个可能的解法:更开放的初选。开放初选能降低特殊利益集团操纵选举的概率。他举了洛杉矶市长选举的例子,说看起来Rick Caruso有希望,那样会不错。但整体上,加州 gerrymander 得厉害,选举结果基本被锁定。

18个月建成的工厂

为什么把总部和工厂搬到德州?马斯克给了一个非常具体的对比。

在加州,一个绿地项目拿到许可通常要两年,而且一定会被起诉,因为在加州你一定会被起诉。在德州,特斯拉没有遇到任何诉讼,工厂18个月就建成了。

我们在这儿建完整座工厂的时间,比在加州拿到许可的时间还短。(马斯克)

他把这跟特斯拉的根本使命挂上钩:特斯拉存在的意义是加速可持续能源的到来。早两年还是晚两年,是有实质差别的。所以在加州建厂、把进度推迟两年,和在德州提前两年,这道选择题的答案很明显。

他也说了自己其实很喜欢住在加州,问题是那个环境里事情推不动。他认为加州需要一场危机才可能推动去监管化和去诉讼化。

宇宙是答案,那问题是什么

访谈后半段,话题转到了哲学。有人问他,为什么在很多事情上的立场看起来自相矛盾。

马斯克说,这确实该问,因为它指向一个更根本的东西:他的哲学底盘是什么。

十几岁的时候,他经历过一场存在主义危机,想搞清楚生命的意义是什么。他翻遍了能拿到的宗教文本,没有被说服。然后他开始读哲学。一个十几岁的孩子读尼采,效果很糟,只会加重抑郁。他开玩笑说,成年之后每年读一点尼采还行,小时候读就是“哇”。

真正让他走出来的是《银河系漫游指南》(The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy)。

书里的设定是:地球是一台巨型计算机,任务就是算出生命、宇宙以及一切的意义,最后算出来的答案是42。道格拉斯·亚当斯真正想说的是:我们根本不知道正确的问题是什么。要提出正确的问题,需要一台比地球大得多的计算机。

马斯克由此得到一个表述方式:宇宙是答案,问题是什么?

我们越是能扩大意识的规模和范围,就越有可能搞清楚该向这个作为答案的宇宙提出什么问题。我们越是能成为多行星物种,最终成为多恒星物种,就越有机会弄明白到底发生了什么。(马斯克)

这就是他为什么要推动更多的人类、更多的生物意识和数字意识,为什么要让生命走出地球。也解释了可持续能源的位置:得先保证地球不出事,这是所有事情的前提。碳排放和能源转型在他这里属于基础设施问题,得先让这场“理解宇宙”的工程能继续下去,地球不能先垮掉。

文明在银河尺度上只闪了一下

他接着给了一串时间尺度。

人类最早的成文记录大约在5000年前,往前就没有连贯的符号系统了。地球存在了45亿年,宇宙138亿年。5亿年前才有了贝类这种生物。

把文明史放进银河尺度的时间框架里,5000年就是闪光灯闪了一下。

他推荐了一本书,威尔·杜兰特的《文明的故事》(The Story of Civilization),说过去5000年里文明的兴衰反复上演。

古埃及是最好的例子。他们有令人惊叹的金字塔,有精密的文字系统,繁荣了大约2500年,比美国建国时间长十倍。然后,最后一批会建金字塔的人死了,再往后,最后一批能读象形文字的人也在大约1500到2000年前死掉了。之后的几千年里,人们就住在这些巨大建筑的旁边,不知道它们从哪来,也不知道墙上那些奇怪的符号是什么意思。

直到拿破仑远征埃及,带了一批学者和罗塞塔石碑过去,象形文字才被重新破译。而这本身也是一件极难的事。

苏美尔人也是如此。考古学家甚至挖出了黏土做的学校课本,上面有老师批改的痕迹。这样一个文明,也没了。

所以马斯克的推论是:技术水位是会下降的。每个文明都走过一条正弦曲线,最后归于下行。我们完全有可能忘掉怎么造飞船,就像埃及人忘掉怎么建金字塔一样。

那就应该在还能造飞船的时候把飞船造出来,在还有能力的时候把生命变成多行星的。

他提到第三次世界大战的概率不为零,看看最近发生的事就知道。俄罗斯目前有几千枚核弹头对准美国,足以让每个主要城市在放射性废墟上再炸几遍。真到了那一步,还剩下什么技术水平,没人说得清。

至于外星人,他说自己没看到任何证据。考古学家挖得那么努力,如果真有先进文明的遗骸,学界会轰动。他还开玩笑:如果我发现了外星人证据,我会立刻公开,然后说,危险的外星人来了,给SpaceX更多预算,不然我们打不过它们。

怎么用这套框架看今天的选择

整场访谈里,马斯克其实反复在用一个判断标准:这件事是在加速,还是在拖慢。加速可持续能源,加速意识扩展到地球之外,加速把产品做到足够好。反过来,“计划就是计划”、“许可要等两年”、“先把这个人搞臭”,都属于拖慢。

读者可以把它拆成几个具体动作:

  • 评估一家公司时,先分清“性价比”和“买得起”。前者看产品,后者看现金流。很多分析把这两件事混在一起,最后得出一个漂亮但错误的结论。
  • 看新入局者能不能活,先问它有没有存量用户。剃刀刀片模式的行业里,没有存量的一方必须靠产品溢价活下去,这要求产品好到不讲道理。
  • 看政策红利时,别只看名义金额,要看钱什么时候到账、以什么条件到账。报销制的补贴和预付制的补贴,对一个现金流紧张的公司是两种完全不同的东西。
  • 看一家公司的政治处境,去比对它和竞争对手在同一场活动里的位置。谁被请进去了,谁被挡在门外,比任何声明都清楚。
  • 做产品功能取舍时,用“人数乘以平均体验”这个面积来算,别用“这个东西有多酷”。0.01%的人极度喜欢,面积往往小于50%的人稍微喜欢。
  • 读历史,尤其是文明兴衰史。技术水位会下降这件事在历史上发生过很多次,把它当成真实的可能,别只当科幻设定。
  • 如果你在做一件长期的事,先想清楚它加速了什么。想不清楚,就很难在两年许可、三轮抹黑、五次融资失败里撑住。

最后补充一个细节。有人问马斯克,创始人的头衔到底怎么算。他说这是个含糊的问题,什么叫“创立”一件事,没有明确的度量。但他给了一个可操作的检验方式:如果没有这个人,这家公司还会存在吗?按这个标准,特斯拉只有两个人通过检验:JB Straubel 和他自己。没有这两个人,特斯拉根本不会以任何有意义的形式存在,就算存在也早就破产了。

这个检验方式,也能拿来问自己手上的项目:拿掉你,它还成立吗?

语音识别自动转录(Whisper),含全部发言人,可能有识别错误。已按语句合并成段落,并去掉 um、uh 等口头填充词。

0:04So this is like we're getting like some serious drama here. So On a parallel thread, I'd like to meet someone and they say like if you come through Germany you stop by and I said Okay, all my way to India I'm gonna stop by Daimler headquarters and talk to them And see if there's any kind of partnership that could be had this is

0:30I forget the exact It's it's right before I gave the the IAC tokens. So that like it would be a that's how I want to place it. And I met with their engineering team and I said, like, is there anything you guys, like what do you guys want? Like, is there, you know, I'm trouble a cool here, you know, even though, like, we definitely need some kind of partnership where we're screwed.

0:56And they said, well, they're thinking about an electric smart car. So, like, okay, if we were to do something, you know, You know, when, like, when would you want to see it? And I said, well, we've got like a delegation of downlink executives coming through in January, January of 2009.

1:16And I think this was October or something like that. And I talked to JB, like Drew and Scott and Vanit and a bunch of others. It's like, guys, we need to get a smart car. And we need to stuff a rose to powertrain into it and make it custom battery. And it needs to work. By the time the Daimler team comes here in January.

1:47Oh my. We can interview JB about it. Maybe he would add some additional color. So the problem was that there were no smart cars We're not being sold in the US, but they were being sold in Mexico. So we sent someone to Mexico to just buy a smart car and drive across the border. So we just, so we, so we, this is a gasoline and smart car.

2:09So just with Mexican plates. So we went and bought a smart car in Mexico, drove across the border and, and then literally put a roster drive unit and modified battery pack in, in the smart car and had it working. by January when the diamond delegation came by. And I remember that being in that diamond meeting, and man, they were just, they're like, it's clearly that they're quite grumpy that they even have to meet with us.

2:39They did not know we had this electric smart guard. So they're grumpy that they had to meet with us, and we're clearly trying to get out of the room as quickly as possible. And when we started off, made the mistake of starting off with PowerPoint, and that which immediately made them even grumpier, because everything works in PowerPoint, and they were seeing way too many PowerPoint slides.

2:57And they were literally getting ready to walk out from the PowerPoint presentation. I said, what would you like to drive the car? They're like, what do you mean? It's like, well, we have an electric smart car. See, we're going to drive it. You don't have an electric smart car. That's impossible.

3:14Yeah, it's in the parking lot. You're going to drive it. Actually, it was a smart car. It was fucking sick. This thing had a roast of powertrain in a smart car. the part of weight ratio this thing was bananas. It was like you could pull wheelies in a smart car. Literally if you stepped on it.

3:29Yeah, you could lift the front wheels up the van. Yeah, it was most of a token of four wheel vehicles. It was insane. You could burn rubber in a smart car. It looked bizarre. Like you've just never seen a thing reflect that. I thought I might actually drive a smart car if I was like that.

3:47Yeah, it was awesome. Anyway, so we blew their minds. They're like, what? How is this? This is like, what impossible black magic can you figure it out to have an electric smart car? It's like, well, we got one from Mexico three months ago and we put a roster prop train in it and modified battery pack.

4:05And you can still use the car. The interior of the car was so full of usable. So we didn't intrude on the interior space. And we're like, yeah, we can. And they're like, okay, well, this is pretty impressive. They never seen anything like this before. So they're like, okay, well they'll consider, they will do some smart car limited production.

4:27Like part of this is because they had to make the regulators happy. So this was not like, they needed like some sustainable energy cars to make the regulators happy. That was the reason for this electric smart car. The fleet miles away. It was not a grand vision by down let's go electric.

4:43was to get these annoying regulators without back. So for the credits, right? There was like compliance. Compliance vehicles. So there was like a minimum number of electric vehicles the HAT team made. They could also make fuel cell vehicles, but that was way more expensive. So from this standpoint, at the time, it was really more like, watch the least amount of money we can spend and get the regulators without the regulator of monkey over back.

5:08So, like so, so, anyway, so that, so we end up making a bunch of electric smart cars for Perdaimler. And then over time we actually extended that into like an electric AB class, but there were always just really compliance vehicles that did not want to make, Daimler was not willing to place at that time a big bet on electric vehicles. And so the volume and the

5:41price were always like the volume is too low, the price is too high, these are going to be niche vehicles no matter what. But anyway, so what it did lead to, which was really essential, was Tesla getting saved by Daimler investing $50 million. So the $40 million invested in December of 2008, just gave us six months of runway.

6:03So that basically gave us until June of 2009. And again, during this period, General Motors has bankrupt, Chrysler has bankrupt. So not a lot of people are interested in investing in a startup car company, let alone an electric car company. And remember, this is back when Electric San- it was synonymous with dump.

6:24You could just say, instead of using electric car company, could just substitute dumb. Do you want to invest in a dumb car company? That's what it sounded like to most people. So at the time, I think like Daimler vaguely thought that the Volkswagen group might invest in Tesla, and they didn't want that.

6:52So they essentially to block VW from investing in Tesla, which by the way, VW was not going to invest in Tesla. I talked to their person and they expressed some initial interest, but then they went darker me. So actually, the only one, the only investor that was interested in Tesla at all was Daimler.

7:14And that was because of the electric small program. So they invested $50 million into Tesla at roughly a $500 million valuation. So it worked out. Yeah, 10% right. Yeah, it did. You got 10% on the company. I mean, we're really in the weeds here. So hopefully this is interesting to some people.

7:36But this is definitely some deep lower war story stuff. So in 2009, we're also just figuring out how to actually get the roads into volume production. So we were not able to reach volume production, even for the Fireroids, their standards in 2008. And we still had a bunch of things in the car that were brought.

7:59I think we managed to deliver like maybe 20 or 25 cars in 2008, most of which were in December. And then we had to bring all of those cars back to have the drive trains replaced. And I think most of them got their battery pack replaced too. So I mean it was just a fumbling mess basically.

8:24It was insane. But in 2009, it's when we actually figured out how to make the car half decent, half decent roads for one where you could give it to someone and it wouldn't just like break down immediately. And like a roughly summer of 2009 is when the car wasn't complete these are trash.

8:48That just didn't work. And then we did a roadster 1.5 and then Franz joined and Franz helped redesign the roads and make it better with the Roadster II. Then buying basically late 2009, early 2010, was where the Roadster was decent as a toy. Not as transport you could count on, but as a toy.

9:21It became decent run under 2009, early 2010. Anyway, so that diamond investment in May 2009 was what was essential to Tesla's survival, not a government loans. So this is another thing that is misunderstanding here. Because they got confused because GM and Chrysler and Ford, GM got a massive bailout, just like a flat out freaking donation from taxpayers.

9:57like tens of billions of dollars. So GM got like, yeah, 30 billion dollar handout basically with no repayment. Last I checked, there's over 14 billion, that's unpaid. Okay so maybe it's- Yeah, it's on a real amount though. Okay, it's 14, it has not been repaid and never will be, I suspect. So I think the crisis

10:21got a bunch of money and then Ford got like a five billion dollar loan. But Ford is in better financial shape because I don't know for whatever reason. I think that Ford family has more long-term thinking than the people that were running GM and Chrysler. So they were in a better financial position. But it remains the case today that the only company

10:45American companies have not gone bankrupt or Tesla and Ford. Unless something changes significantly with Rovian and Lucid, they will both go bankrupt. They're tracking to bankruptcy. They may not say like that is currently like if there's an airplane, they're like they're going like that.

11:06So if something happens to go change, okay, but currently they're intersectional with doom. So, you know, I hope they are able to do something, but unless they cut their they're cost dramatically though, do trouble. And we'll end up in the cemetery like every other company with the exception of Tesla and Ford.

11:30Anyway, that diamond investment was essential to Tesla survival. Around that time in mid-2009, we got a letter, sort of a letter of interest, like a non-binding letter of interest from the DOE for a loan that I believe was around $500 Now that was not alone where they just give you $500 million.

11:55That was one where you spend the money, you provide invoices. Those invoices are provided to DOE. They then refund you based on the audited expenses that you paid. It's not like the lump sum type of thing. It's retroactive after you spend it. It's a reimbursement. It's a loan reimbursement.

12:18So there's nothing, I think it's given for free. It's a low in reimbursement. So it would not be possible to use that as advanced capital to make something happen. It can only be used to reimburse expenses that have already taken place with a two to three month lag. And that letter of interest did not become an actual binding document until 2010.

12:45And the first money that Tesla received as a reimbursement from that, I think, was March or April of 2010, by which time the recession had passed. So if we had needed the money from that loan, Tesla would have gone bankrupt. The DOE loan, I think, was helpful as an accelerant, but it was not a life-or-death thing, potentially.

13:11And ultimately, the problem is that that DOE was second guessing our business plan and our execution. So we're like, well, we need to change the business plan, because if we keep going in that direction, we're going to die. So we're going to go in that direction, in the non-death direction.

13:28And then you're explaining to someone at the DOE why you're changing the plan. And then they're like, but the plan is different. You need to stay the plan. Like, well, if we stay the plan, we're going to crash. And the company will die. And that's why we want to change the plan.

13:39But that's the plan. But that's the plan. OK, this is not good. With enough effort, we could actually get the DOE to agree to change the plan. But this was taken up a lot of bandwidth to be constantly convincing people at DOE that the new plan is better than the old plan. So, after the IPO in 2010, we paid back the DOE loan.

14:19And we actually had to pay a penalty, an early repayment penalty. So we paid back the loan with interest plus a prepayment penalty. Like taxpayers made money on the loan. Very important. experts made money on the Tesla DOE loan. Whereas they're still $14 billion down on $14 billion down on GM.

14:47Another thing was pointing out is none of the incentives, the EV incentives that exist, not one of them was obtained by Tesla, not one of them. The $75,000 tax credit was General Motors. They're the one who got that. Like Tesla had no loving power in DC. I don't like the, but GM had huge loving powers.

15:09They're the ones that got the $75,000 tax credit out put in place. And Nissan, but we had basically no presence in DC. So, yeah, I mean, you'll certainly hear like, oh, Tesla and tax credit. I'm like, okay, well, currently, we don't have, the $7,500 tax credit does not apply to Tesla, but it does apply to our competitors.

15:37So anyone who has not made any company that's a cumulative production blow to $200,000 cars has a $7,500 tax credit, and Tesla does not, because we've long go exceeded the 200,000 car maximum. So, Tesla is any competitive disadvantage with respect to tax credits. that is quite significant when you're talking about, like say, a $40,000 car, and a $7,500

16:01tax credit, that's like almost a 20% difference. So big deal. So Tesla is successful currently in spite of our competitors having materially greater tax advantages than Tesla, in spite of it, not because of it. If you eliminated all EV incentives tomorrow, Tesla's competitive position would improve significantly. I'll say that again, if you eliminated all tax credits,

16:32EV tax credits, Tesla's position would improve immediately. And Tesla did the purpose of the tax credits before, right, to drive that innovation ramp. You guys just actually did it so fast that the competitors are still using it. Well, when we started Tesla, gas was under two bucks a gallon in California and there were no tax credits. So it was not from the standpoint of like, hey, this is a great opportunity.

16:55I mean, when we saw the Tesla, I should be clear, like it was an expectation of success of less than 10% and the same for SpaceX. And who in their right mind would think that a car company would have anything more than a 10% probability of success? If you've never built a car in your entire life before and there have been...

17:15I've been, yeah, there's only, exactly, there's only, at the time, you know, GM, Ford and Chrysler, and the history of car companies is like, there have been like over a thousand car company startups in the United States and they're all dead. So, and you know, with the 2008-2009 recession, GM and Chrysler also went bankrupt.

17:38So the chances of survival are extremely tiny. Only a fool would start a car company with electric car company or a car company whatsoever and think that the probability of success was high. So my initial thought for both Tesla and SpaceX was that I'd take half the money from PayPal.

18:01And I'd waste half of it on two ludicrous banjos born being a car company and a rock company. And that would be dumb and I'd just lose it all. And that would be, but I'd still have $90 million left. So whatever. But in the end, I could say the companies were like children to me.

18:19So I gave the companies all the money that I had. And then I would have had no money at all if Tesla and SpaceX had not survived. I would have owed a lot of money and been personally bankrupt if Tesla and SpaceX had not survived. That hadn't happened. We still wouldn't have electric vehicles.

18:37Yeah, I think so. It tells us, I mean, it's like, what is Tesla's fundamental value? It is to serve as an accelerant to sustainable energy. And if you say, metaphor Tesla, what would the world be like? In ways that, let's say you're looking at this from the macroeconomic God standpoint, or civilization,

19:02or the Sims or something. What's the difference here? the difference between Tesla and not Tesla is how many years is sustainable energy accelerated. That is the fundamental good of Tesla. And then there's also the autonomy thing, which is I think it will be very significant. But I'd say like in the absence of there being a fundamental technology discontinuity in

19:30the form of electrification and autonomy. Both of them together, I think a new car company cannot succeed. So now I'll tell you, actually, the real reason that people should have been shorting Tesla, and perhaps why some of them were shorting Tesla, and the real reason that new car companies cannot succeed, or why it's very hard for them to succeed.

19:54And this was first told to me by this automotive investor when I was at Axel Springer headquarters getting the Golden Stirring World Award and this guy is apparently like the best automotive investor in the world, you know, comes out to me and like, it's like, hi, no, why are you going to fail? I'm like, well, please tell me. I can think of several reasons.

20:13Tell me when I don't know. Yes. And he said the car companies don't make any money on the new car sales. They make all all of their money selling parts to the existing fleet. So when the warranty runs out, like the life of a car before it hits the junkyard might be 20 years. Warranty is gonna typically run out after four years, and there's a bunch of stuff that's not covered under warranty.

20:40So if you've got a steady state fleet, it means that 80% of your fleet is not under warranty. So you can sell high margin parts, replacement parts, for the existing fleet. and you can sell your new cars at effectively zero margin. It's like a razor and blades thing. So you sell the razor for zero margin and you sell the blades at high margin.

21:04So then this creates a massive barrier to entry for any new car company because you have no existing fleet. So the only way for a new car company to succeed is that does not have an existing fleet is to charge a lot more for your car than what others are paying, than competitors.

21:24And in order to charge a lot more, have people actually buy it, the product must be so compelling that people are willing to pay the premium above the alternative cars from the incumbent car makers. This is the only way. And I think without both electrification and autonomy, this does not succeed.

21:45So that is the only way to do it. You have to win on an autonomy, and you went on electrification and you have to make the product so compelling that it is worth paying the premium relative to the incumbent competitors. This is a very big deal. Yeah. Very, very big deal. So, yeah.

22:09Why am I exactly that customer, by the way? First of all, I'm a Tesla in 2015. The acceleration and all that was cool and the electric was cool. But when I tapped the stick for AutoViolet 1.0 and it walked on the rail on the road like rails. I mean, holy shit, the future's here.

22:23And went from a $4,000 card at the time of fully loaded Model S opposite in the spectrum. That exact angle was it. And it's gotten so many people in the way. Yeah. A autopilot, I'm bringing it back. I'm probably still going to be a Tesla member. Yeah. Why exactly? The thing that actually got me, because we got to be able to get a lot of flak for like autopilot deaths and stuff.

22:43But let me tell you that, yeah, it's like no amount of statistics can convince people otherwise. They're like, yeah. I don't know. Time. Yeah. But the thing that actually got me to really get a move on with Autopilot was that this anecdote illustrates several things, by the way.

23:05So, and I think this was, it might have been like 2014 or something like that, a model less owner in the Bay Area fell asleep while driving his model S and ran over a cyclist and killed a cyclist. Now if there had been even basic lane following, that cyclist would still be alive.

23:32So it was like, man, if anything illustrates the importance of autopilot, it's this case here where that innocent cyclist would still be alive. If that guy that fell asleep had had autopilot, or any kind of like lane following, even basic lane following, the car would not have veered off the road and killed the cyclist.

23:49So it's like, we've got to get a move on here. This is a real safety issue. So that's part of what really encouraged me to like, we need to go make this happen as quickly as possible. But there's more to the story. The guy that ran over the cyclist did not internalize responsibility for himself.

24:14He said the problem was he blamed it on Tesla and said he fell asleep because of the new car smell. I'm not making this up. You can literally search the court records. And he got a lawyer, amazingly, got a lawyer to represent him by a low-suit against Tesla saying it's not his fault he ran over the the cyclist

24:35it's because of the new cost mail that put him to sleep now obviously when the Scott before the judge judges like that's ridiculous case is most but this just gives you some sense of both the importance of autopilot and generally people's unwilling this to internalize responsibility car smells yeah I mean he actually had to know to engage a lawyer and file

25:04lawsuit and like wow that's it's in the court records yeah like oh yeah dude maybe it's not maybe it's you know judge like it's you okay take a small sport of reaction so anyway but but that yeah so so that's why I I think unless some new car company is able to solve autonomy and electrification and make

25:32a product that's extremely compelling and reach value production where the cost of the car is low enough that you can charge a price where you don't exceed the affordability limit of people. Like the, there are a lot of times I have this conversation with rich investors and Wall Street is crazy because there are two factors of play.

25:57One is value for money. The other is fundamental affordability. So these things are often conflated by if somebody has tens million dollars, lives on Wall Street and whatever. They don't understand that they just think about value for money, they don't think about affordability.

26:18All cars are affordable. Someone literally does not have enough money in the bank account, they cannot buy the car, even if you rail desirability to infinite. Like we'll just turn the desirability knob. This is this thing will transform into a jet and fly you to a private island that it will create by itself.

26:41You make it so desirable that it's, you can just make desirability infinite. But if it costs more than people can afford, they can't buy no matter how great it is. And so that affordability threshold is very, very important. So it must both be good value of money and be affordable in order to achieve the unit volumes. And where

27:03a car companies can get kind of painted into a corner, the corner of DOOM is if the cost of the car is so high that they have to raise the price of the car to the point where the price price of the car is, and Rivian I think it has this problem, so you know, that they even need to fix it or they're in deep trouble, they raise the price to the point where only a very small number of people can afford the car, no matter how desirable it is.

27:34Then at that point, if you cannot achieve a unit volume that covers your fixed costs, you're screwed. So, and Rivian, my advice to Rivian too, would be to cut costs immediately across the board dramatically or they're doomed. So, what does it apply to any car company? As you raise the price, the percentage of

28:05people who can afford the car starts to drop exponentially. So, you know, like, it started getting a car above $100,000. It's very, very few people can afford it, no matter how desirable is. But you've got to have enough unit volume to pay for your fixed-up heads. You've got to cover your operating expenses.

28:35We can do a time check too if we need to. No, I'm just afraid of mine. It's like suggesting that I draw a hard drive by posting more memes from them. I'm just going to keep stealing their memes and and posting them without giving them credit. People love that. That's the internet.

28:56But we use belonging to the internet. Yeah, exactly. It's a whole point of the meme. Exactly. Yeah. And typically, you'll like the meme, too, that you'll post. And so people know where it's coming down. It's belonging to people. Yeah. You quit your own memes, though, don't you? I saw my kid who created some memes.

29:14Your meme game is strong. Thank you. Who controls it? Memes control. My friend is saying I should post hard drive memes and declare that I made it myself. I made it myself. I'm over sucking. And then tell hard drives to stop copying me. Well, maybe what a, I don't have an AI figure I don't have a copy of.

29:43Yeah. It's not that much scary. It's so vexed. So, yeah. You good on time too? Yeah, yeah, I'm I'm okay this I was just getting little text buzzes so But nothing is like the house, you know something's on fire which by the way sometimes I do get the text The house on fire the cars on fire the dumpsters on fire We've had a lot of dumpster fires to Tesla actually

30:19What's going on free my system like a lot of fire Yeah, my friends here keep text me every time. But there's a dumster fire. The literal dumpster fire. It's like, not a better particle dumpster fire. Just literally a dumpster on fire. I just imagine, though, if you see the beeb of the dumpster on fire floating down the river, the valley of the river.

30:39I mean, if you have a lot of cardboard and wood packaging in a dumpster, then or whatever, it's going to, like it's flammable. It's, you know, then somebody, I don't know, Sometimes I think some of these things are some kids having fun or whatever just like being an artist and some of it are just you know, I don't know how these things like try to

30:59figure out why is this stuff started on fire? I don't know. It's on fire clearly but why did the fire start? I don't know. Nobody knows how the fire started. Like the dumpster fires are actually not that dangerous but they're like, you know, unless it's indoors or something but like an out and out and dumpster fire is not intrinsically

31:18dangerous. Yeah, it's contained. It's like it's good enough. Just not gonna melt or anything So it tends to just be like it just general it creates drama, but it's not like actually dangerous So currently we get to give we've all been FSC beta you guys. Thank you by the way. It's been fun. Yeah, thank you testing

31:34Recently got kicked out Yeah, I was on a long drive to San Francisco and unfortunately on really long road trips I have this problem where I'll get the nag thing will give you enough times at all disable and you know I did like 800 miles across Texas and I'll get tired of it. That's actually not what it's about.

31:52We currently get to give feedback for when the car does something wrong. Would it be useful if we got to give feedback when the car did something like really well and really right? Because I haven't do great things all the time. But I have nobody to call somebody or mark the video and say, hey, they did this turn incredibly and everything well.

32:07And I mean, because I was assuming the AI is being trained with reinforcement learning as well, it'd be great if we could help give that feedback when the car is like, great job buddy, like the plus one button or something. I don't know. All input is error. Yeah, all input is error, exactly.

32:25Unless somebody missed the future, in which case, no input is error. In some cases, we've got cool features. Nobody ever used when new was there. Like the wizards in winter dance with the Model X stores. And it's rare to encounter a customer who actually knows about that. Most of them don't know it exists.

32:44And then we made it too hard to do. And it should be the offset of an Easter egg. to be like this maximized number of people know about it. No black minimizes. I actually have a word in the Tesla. I actually shot the video. Oh, OK. All right, great. I'm trying to get it out there.

32:57Yeah, I think people didn't translate that to my car can also do this. It was a good question. Yeah. Yeah, it's true. But still today, I bet probably, I don't know, at least two-thirds of Model X owners have no idea the car can do that. Yeah, I was talking about the Christmas dance, are you?

33:17Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's like, OK. Yeah. So all these do, but yeah. Because I've done it so much for my neighbors. I know. I know. But I feel like it's great. I mean, you're not really seeing a car do anything like that. So no. It's like riding up. Yeah. Do you have a favorite Easter egg or feature

33:38that you put into the cars that is just your favorite? Well, I suppose that the sort of Wizarding Winter Door Dense is my favorite sort of Easter eggy feature or fun thing that has no value in it. So it's a entertainment. Yeah, it's like a entertainment. But it's like an unnecessary thing.

34:03That's cool. I mean, there was the Tap Autopilot four times to play more Cabo. Yeah. Yeah. And people would get kicked. But that's the one that you could accidentally do. And then your screen turns to Mario Kart. Rainbow Road. Yep. And... I'm going downhill or all. Yeah. Kids can't be sleeping during that time.

34:36Yeah. Fantastic. I think it's quite a few times people accidentally. Accidentally because it's like it is a thing you could just tap too many times It's like it's not one of those Easter eggs, you know, it's like one of those like old school arcade games Where it's like up down down left left right like it, you know, it's like just press it four times and finger

34:53It's I think a lot of people just like what happened Am I going crazy? Well, I think I'm doing this Yeah, so that that's a cool one And it contains the car to enter 42 cars. Name change left, universe, and everything. There's the James Bond, where it turns into the spy love me car.

35:21That's the submarine car. Yeah. Yep. What were you? Undiscovered? Easter or anything? Personal component changes to Thomas Edison. Is that my report? Right. Maybe, actually. Maybe, actually, there's a ha ha ha, if you want to change the screen to reindeer. Ha ha, not funny. Ha ha, not funny.

35:45We'll play the song, Grandma got run over with reindeer. Grandma got run over by reindeer. It's the ha ha, not funny. Yes. I mean, there might be. I don't necessarily tell me about all the Easter eggs, you know? But I mean, the thing is that, like, we can't spend too much time on Easter eggs because

36:11we should be... Come on, that should be the entire focus. Well, the problem is if something is rare, like what you're really trying to do is maximize the area under the curve of a number of people times degree of enjoyment. Yeah. So it's fine to have a low effort Easter egg that is something that a small number of

36:34people will get a lot of joy from. And then you're like the area of the curve of like, well, they got a lot of joy, but it's a small number of people. But what you're really looking for is something that would provide a lot of people enjoyment and maximize the area under the curve of total people times amount of an average enjoyment. That's what you're actually

36:53trying to do, you know. So that's why I can't get carried away with the Easter egg, so. Yeah. Yeah. You really want everyone to experience it, not make it some extremely, you know, 0.01% of people actually even know it exists situation. Yeah. So I think we've got a lot of work to do, actually, with the basic software in the car.

37:14Like our web browser sucks. And we definitely need to do work on the overall interface in the car. like, you know, there's a lot of complaints on the interface, and they do better on the interface. But like, if you try to use the web browser in the car, it like takes a long time to load, and then it's a trash browser.

37:30It's worse than like some iPad from five years ago, like by a lot. And like the rear screen and the SNX, the controls, need a lot of work. But like, it can be quite helpful for like entertaining like your kid's now has something to watch in the back. And you put YouTube stuff on.

37:53It's a game changer. It is a game changer. But for example, that's something where we should have separate audio for the back. And what's the point of, we can't really replay the same audio level for that back screen in the front as in the back. It should just play the back should play that audio.

38:15Or it should like route to a Bluetooth that's keyed off of the rear screen and then you'd give them headphones or something. So that people can listen to music in the front and not get blasted by the YouTube Kids Show audio in the front, which is currently the situation. That's correct.

38:31So there's like a bunch of stuff like that that we need to fix. But the overwhelming focus is solving full self-driving. So yeah, and that's essential. And like, that's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money and being worth basically zero. One question I was going to ask with a little, maybe, remaining time.

38:59Is there any additional questions or thought or misinformation about Tesla? Or I don't know, maybe you want to walk around the factory or whatever you have time for? It's kind of quiet, so whatever you have time for, we'll game for. Well, I mean, is there anything we should go over that would be helpful?

39:18I mean, I think some of these things are like the whole founder thing. It's like, I think fundamentally, even a kind of a stupid question, because what does it mean to found something? There's some critical mass of inspiration and perspiration, but it's an enabulous number or it's an enabulous metric to say, you know, those person deserves to be

39:45a co-founder of this one doesn't. It's enabulous. But I think you could apply the but for question. Like, but for this person would the company exist? Or would it have gone bankrupt or not exist in a form that it is currently in a much diminished form or simply not existed at all.

40:04And the only two people that you could apply the But Four argument to are JB's trouble in me. But Four, JB's trouble in me tells I would, I think, never have existed in any meaningful way. And if it had, it would have gone bankrupt. So those are the only two people that the But Four argument applies.

40:23Maybe you want to go into this here or not. You mentioned, I think, gotten to whatever recently about the coal, shoulder, Tesla, and and stuff has experienced and brought our economic and political climate. Do you want to share more about how that's been affecting change? I got a little bit of that.

40:39How do you see that changing as Tesla expands in the great Lone Star State? Sure. So, I mean, those that follow closely are aware of it. I think you're probably aware of it, so somewhat of a rhetorical question I suspect. But the – I think the general public is not aware of the degree to which the Union's

41:01control of democratic party. This is – when does not need to speculate on this point, last year President Biden held an EV summit where Tesla was explicitly not allowed to come, but the UAW was. So now Tesla has made two thirds of all electric vehicles in the United States. So deliberately excluding us from an EV summit at the White House, but including the UAW.

41:31That tells you all you need to know. The reality is UAW would prefer that Tesla was dead or unionized, but not anything but alive and unionized. And there are no fans of sustainable energy. They have for sustainable energy the entire way. So at Tesla, far from, like Tesla has the highest pay in the auto industry and moreover,

41:59the people that work out of Fremont plant have like five job offers to work somewhere else. There's negative unemployment in the Bay Area. Try hiring someone in the Bay Area. It's ridiculous. It's negative unemployment. So our challenge is how do we convince people to stay given the many other opportunities

42:16that they have? Let alone a union. Like they're like, what? five of the jobs. That's the real reason. It's a complete opposite for what their characterizes. And the UAW has never been able to get even enough people to do a boat, let alone get to 50%. And California is an extremely pro-union state. There's nothing you could do to stop

42:35the year and if they want to come in. The California will roll out the red carpet. So So then the UAW is basically forced to engage in dirty tricks and attempt to demonize the me and anyone else associated with the company. If the company is run by someone who is procedurally good, then they have trouble unionizing

43:00because they're like, well, he's a good guy. Why would you want to unionize that company? So they have to make me evil somehow. And so I do not, as you can tell, I don't like the UAW because they have run a dirty trick campaign on me since at least 2017. Basically the point of which they thought maybe Tesla

43:20wasn't going to go bankrupt because while they thought Tesla was going to go bankrupt, there was no point in dirty tricks. When they thought Tesla might not go bankrupt, that's when the dirty tricks and the sort of smear campaign started. So I'm not a huge fan of them. Now their attacks did lose a bit of the wind and the sales when the president

43:39to the UAW was sent to prison. So that took a little wind out of their sales. And then when the next UAW president, who was supposed to be the person who had cleaned things up, when he was sent to prison, also, that also took some more wind out of their sales. And but since then, recently in the last several months,

44:06they've sort of backed their old trics. So, and I mean, they have so much power over the White House that they can exclude Tesla from an EV Summit. It's insane. Insane. And just in case the first thing, in case that wasn't enough, then you have President Biden with Mary Barra at a subsequent event congratulating Mary for having led the company

44:36the EV revolution. This is... There's 26 EVs in Q4. Exactly. Exactly. I believe it was in the same quarter that GM delivered 26 electric vehicles and Tesla delivered 300,000. It's like not 26,000, 26. This is not... This is what they said. Like it's not us saying, oh, oh, you're artificially saying their number is low.

45:02No, that's what they put in their earnings report, okay. We're just reading it. So that's like some next level insanity. So it's not like a sort of a conspiracy theory. It's just like, it's just observe what, if anyone is remotely impartial observer, just observe the actions and what other conclusion could you come to, then the Democratic Party does not support Tesla because it is not unionized.

45:37They would rather Tesla was dead than be alive and on unionized. And I think the pressure on this will increase over time. So the more Tesla is successful, the more Tesla is an existential threat to UAW. And so the more pressure they'll put on the people that they got elected to do harm to Tesla.

46:04How's reception been a Tesla moving into Texas? I mean, it's been good. I mean, the thing about building the factory here that I think should be noted is that we built a factory here in less time than it would have taken to get the permits in California. So, a typical permit permitting time for a green field in California is two years.

46:35Two years and you're going to get sued by, you're just going to get sued because you're in California. We didn't get any lawsuits here and we got the factory built in 18 months. Is that insane? Yeah. Sensing the factory come online. I'm gonna get flown here. I'll get people in the airport and be like, oh, he worked at Tesla.

46:59They were so excited. That's the general incentive that I've seen. I had a guy while driving down to see Star Bay, stop it. He's an oil man, but he was like, my goodness, if this is what they're doing with the rockets, their cars have got to be amazing too. I think it's working.

47:12Yeah, it's like I love living in California, but the problem is you cannot get things done. Yeah. So it's like that's what I mean by like this is not like this is simply a description of fact and ask anyone and anyone who's done a large project in California how long would it take you to get the approval to proceed and pass CEQA in California for a large project?

47:35Oh two years and you're doing well if you do it in two years and you're going to get a ton of people is going to see you just for the hell of it, basically. And like I said, we got this both in 18 months. Less time than it would take to get the permit down in California. And when you go back to the fundamental good of Tesla is to what degree are we accelerating sustainable energy.

47:56It matters if we get it done now or in two years. That explains a lot actually. Yeah. I didn't think, yeah. So we therefore have a choice. Do you get factory in California and delay progress by two years? or accelerated by two years in Jordan, Texas. What does Marley write things to do, obviously, Texas?

48:16Yeah. Yeah. So, like this California can need like a crisis to have deregulation and delitigation. It's just the two entities that most control the Democratic party, other unions, and secondarily the plaintiff bar, the plaintiff's bar on the law side. Basically, the lawyer is that sued, especially class action.

48:52That's who controls the Democratic Party. Anyone who's familiar with the inside baseball of this is what I agree with me. This is in fact the case, especially in California. So the issue is that the lawyers write the legislation to make it easy to win lawsuits in California because they funded the election of the officials of the people that got elected

49:16for funded by Democrats and lawyers. So then they write legislation to make it easy to win lawsuits and get gigantic awards because they got the people elected. And you have this sort of circle of nightmarish circle until there has to be an above 0% chance of a Republican getting elected in California.

49:35It has to be above 0%. Otherwise, you have a one-party state. Yeah. And then the political parties are irrelevant and it's just the primaries. So that's the situation in California, and unless there's a crisis, one possible solution is more open primaries. Like more open primaries, I think would reduce the probability of special interests manipulating

50:04the election. I think in LA, the mayoral election is open primaries or sort of open primaries. It looks like maybe Rick Caruso will get elected. And he's like, I think it'd be great. But for the most part, California is gerrymandered to hell and gone and to ensure a majority Democrat outcome.

50:37Generally speaking, why are you here about politics? Why are you here about multiple different jurisdictions? Consciousness, you mentioned that. Did you feel like that's maybe not the case or not true? Well, I mean, there's something at times when I have balanced, I think that's a good question asked,

51:11because it goes to, like, what at a foundational level, what is my philosophy? And why does it lead to this conclusion? Yes. So the reason is that when I was a teenager, I had like an existential crisis to try to figure out what's the meaning of life. It doesn't seem to be any meaning.

51:35For me, at least, the religious texts, and I read all of them that I'd get my hands on, did not seem convincing. So then I'm like, OK, then I started reading flossers. You're capable of reading German flossers as a teenager. And I'm like, I'm not going to help with your depression.

51:57So reading show up an hour and each year, as an adult, that's much more manageable. But as a kid, you're like, whoa. So then I was like, man, I'm just like struggling to find meaning in life here. And then I read, a Hijag Sky to the Galaxy. And basically what Douglas Adams was saying is that, we don't really know what the right questions are to ask.

52:18Like the question is not, what's the meaning of life? You know, in the Hijag Sky to the Galaxy, the Earth it turns out is a big computer. That's, and its goal is to answer the question what's the meaning of life and Earth comes up with the answer 42. this is where the 42 number comes from.

52:41And 420 is just 10 times 42. Yeah. So what, in that book, which is really sort of a book about is an existential philosophy book disguised as humor, They come from the conclusion that the real problem is trying to formulate the question. And to really have the right question, you need a much bigger computer than Earth.

53:21And so maybe, I think one way of characterizing this review is to say, the universe is the answer what is the question? And the more or what are the questions, the more we can expand the scope and scale of consciousness, the better we can understand what questions to ask about the answer that is to the universe. And the more we can expand consciousness,

53:52become a multi-panned species, ultimately a multi-cellar species, we have a chance of figuring out what the hell's going on. And this is why I think we should have more humans and more digital, both biological and digital consciousness. And why should we become a multi-pants species and a multi-cell species, is so that we can understand the nature of the universe.

54:20And then in order for that to occur, then we have to make sure that things are good on Earth. We don't want Earth to despair. So sustainable energy is important for ensuring the long-term viability of Earth. And making life multi-planetary is important for extending consciousness.

54:46And ultimately we want to go and visit other star systems to see if there are alien civilizations there that perhaps still exist or perhaps died out millions of years ago. The extraordinarily short, I think, don't realize just how short civilization, like the first writings were only about 5,000 years ago.

55:11So I don't know what happened around 5,000 years ago, but for every reason, there's not really writings before that. So there's not like some coherent symbolic representation before about 5,000, maybe 5,500 years ago. So you can call, like, if you date civilization from the point of which we had writing, it's only 5,000 years

55:33old. Earth has been around for, I don't know, 4 and 1 half billion years, 5 billion-ish. The universe has been around for 13.8 billion years. They were shellfish basically 500 million years ago. So basically, what I'm saying is civilization has existed for an instant. For a galactic time scale, frame of reference,

56:12civilization at 5,000 years is basically flashing the pan. And if you look at the history of civilizations, which I encourage people to read the history of civilizations, in fact, it's literally a book called The Story of Civilization. It's quite good. And there's been the rise and fall of many civilizations over the last 5,000 years.

56:38And if you look at, say, the ancient Egyptian civilization, which is one of the first writings, the first, but close to the first. They pulled these incredible permits and had this sophisticated writing system. And then the people living in the area passed a certain point, maybe around 1500 years ago,

57:04the last person who could read hieroglyphics died. I think probably 1500 to almost 2000 years ago. And well before that, the last people who could build permits died. And then basically people were living next to these structures with that there was just didn't know where they came from and with funny symbols written on them.

57:29And if it took Napoleon invading Egypt and bringing a bunch of scholars with him and the Rosetta Stone, but much more than the Rosetta Stone ultimately to decide for hieroglyphics. That's quite a difficult thing to decipher. So I'm saying that's a civilization that had a really good run.

57:53The ancient Egyptians had a 2500 year run-ish. That's a very long time. You know, like 10 times longer than the United States has been a country. But still they died out. The ancient Sumerians died out. They were arguably the first, from an archaeological standpoint, the first evidence of writing is

58:24the ancient Sumerian. They even found like school books, stuff, like clay school books with like teachers' corrections and stuff. So it's just like, basically, civilization has existed for a split second, is really what it amounts to. So I think it's very important that we become a multi-panned

58:53species while we can, and before technology potentially subsides below the level where it's possible. One of the possible scenarios, and I I think possibly even a probable scenario is that our tech level actually drops, just like the ancient Egyptian, just like every civilization which has gone through on a sine

59:25wave, but ultimately down with something sine wave. So just like the Egyptians living in Egypt, forgot how to build permits and read hierarchical effects, we may forget how to build spaceships. And so we should build the spaceships and make life multi-planetary while it is possible.

59:54And if there were to be a World War III, which is not zero probably, looking at recent events, What will be left after that? Will they even be, I mean, will there be, who's to say what technology would be left after World War III situation? Should we know that Russia still has an off nukes appointed at the United States to make every major city, to make the radioactive rubble bounce several times in every major American city, currently, several thousand.

1:00:45You think that'll start a lack of character, right? Yeah. Do you think this is all happening before? No. I don't know if anyway. I mean, archaeologists are really trying hard to find anything interesting. So if you found evidence of an advanced alien civilization, you'd be like, no one hero

1:01:07in the entire archaeological profession. You know, it's like they're trying very hard to blame these things. We don't find anything so And people sometimes asked me have I Seen evidence of aliens. I'm like I've not And frankly if I had seen evidence of aliens I'd be like hey guys we find evidence of aliens

1:01:29Everyone to give SpaceX less more money because we need to improve our rocket technology. Otherwise. These aliens are gonna get us I thought you were the alien. Yeah. I wasn't an alien until I got your citizenship. That's an alien registration card, I said. I think funds rock and velvet are like a war.

1:01:54Yeah, totally. If the deity had evidence of aliens, immediately tried them out and said, Danger aliens give us more money Yeah, and everybody like absolutely that's not least aliens may not be friendly, you know, so The best way knowledge there's no evidence of aliens so But anyway like going back to the philosophy part is like if you

1:02:21accept as a proposition that We don't really understand meaning of life and we wish to understand the meaning of life then in order to to understanding of life, we should expand consciousness, such that we can ask better questions, learn more, expand beyond the solar system, ensure that life and earth is good,

1:02:45collectively for civilization, and then we can be less dumb about the nature of the universe, and maybe we can answer some questions about where this all came from and where it's going. I think that's a sound philosophy. so at least on Sound Plus B I can echo.

从现场发言里挑出的 9 句原话,附中文译文(AI 翻译,以英文原话为准)。点时间戳可跳到视频对应位置。

如果明天取消所有电动车激励,Tesla 的竞争地位会显著改善。我再说一遍,如果取消所有税收抵免、电动车税收抵免,Tesla 的地位会立刻改善。

If you eliminated all EV incentives tomorrow, Tesla's competitive position would improve significantly. I'll say that again, if you eliminated all tax credits, EV tax credits, Tesla's position would improve immediately.

▶ 16:10

汽车公司的历史是,美国有过上千家汽车初创公司,而它们全都死了。

the history of car companies is like, there have been like over a thousand car company startups in the United States and they're all dead.

▶ 17:07

Tesla 与没有 Tesla 的区别,就是可持续能源被加速了多少年。

the difference between Tesla and not Tesla is how many years is sustainable energy accelerated.

▶ 18:37

所以你可以向现有车队出售高利润的零件、替换零件。而你可以以几乎零利润出售新车。这就像剃刀和刀片模式。

So you can sell high margin parts, replacement parts, for the existing fleet. and you can sell your new cars at effectively zero margin. It's like a razor and blades thing.

▶ 20:40

而为了能卖更高的价、还能让人真的买,产品必须足够有吸引力,让人们愿意支付高于现有车企替代车型的溢价。这是唯一的办法。

And in order to charge a lot more, have people actually buy it, the product must be so compelling that people are willing to pay the premium above the alternative cars from the incumbent car makers. This is the only way.

▶ 21:12

随着你提高价格,能买得起这辆车的人所占比例会开始指数级下降。

As you raise the price, the percentage of people who can afford the car starts to drop exponentially.

▶ 27:42

但压倒性的重点是解决全自动驾驶。所以,是的,这很关键。这实际上就是 Tesla 值很多钱还是基本一文不值的区别。

But the overwhelming focus is solving full self-driving. So yeah, and that's essential. And like, that's really the difference between Tesla being worth a lot of money and being worth basically zero.

▶ 38:27

我相信就是在同一个季度,GM 交付了 26 辆电动车,而 Tesla 交付了 300,000 辆。注意不是 26,000 辆,是 26 辆。

I believe it was in the same quarter that GM delivered 26 electric vehicles and Tesla delivered 300,000. It's like not 26,000, 26.

▶ 44:40

所以我认为,非常重要的是,我们要趁还来得及、在技术可能降到不再可行的水平之前,成为多行星物种。

So I think it's very important that we become a multi-panned species while we can, and before technology potentially subsides below the level where it's possible.

▶ 58:26

资源与出处