播客·中文精读

乔·罗根秀 #1169:马斯克

Joe Rogan Experience #1169 - Elon Musk

中文精读由 AI 基于原始视频与文稿改写,非官方翻译,可能存在偏差或错误;表述以原视频为准。说明

两万个「不是火焰喷射器」的火焰喷射器,四天卖光,进账一千万美元。同一场对话里,马斯克花了三个小时讲人类怎么失去对 AI 的控制权。

2018 年,马斯克坐在乔·罗根(Joe Rogan)对面,喝威士忌,抽了一口大麻,第二天上了全球头条。真正有分量的部分跟那口大麻关系不大。

他讲了 AI 为什么大概率会失控,为什么人类只是 AI 的「生物引导程序」,为什么我们早就是半机械人只是带宽太差,为什么换掉全球 2.5 亿辆车需要 25 年,以及为什么他八成的时间花在画图纸上。

顺带他还卖了两万个火焰喷射器。

从头说。

人类是 AI 的生物引导程序

马斯克重复过多次的一个比喻:人类是 AI 的「生物引导程序」(biological bootloader)。

这个词来自计算机。一台机器开机,先跑一段很小的引导代码,把操作系统唤醒,然后这段代码自己退场。马斯克的意思是,人类正在做的事,是在给一个远比自己聪明的东西铺好启动条件。我们造芯片、建网络、把行为数据一点点喂进去,然后唤醒一个自己不理解的智能,等它起来,引导程序的使命就结束了。

他在节目里说,智能里不属于人类的那部分占比在上升,最终人类只能代表很小的一块。

有人会说,AI 再怎么发展,总归带着人类的价值印记吧。马斯克的回答更冷一点:AI 里确实有大量人类的东西,那并非人类最好的一面。

AI 很大程度上是我们人性 ID 的放大版。所有让人兴奋、恐惧、仇恨、害怕的东西,在互联网上全都有,它们就是边缘系统的投射。(马斯克)

他管互联网叫「边缘系统的投影仪」。你刷到的每一条内容,起作用的并非它代表真相,而是它让你产生反应。反应越强烈,平台越喜欢。

社交媒体的本质是边缘系统共振

顺着这条思路,马斯克给出了他对社交平台成瘾机制的解释,只用了一个词:边缘系统共振(limbic resonance)。

边缘系统是大脑里管情绪的那块,恐惧、愤怒、欲望、归属感都归它管。马斯克认为,一个线上产品有多成功,取决于它能和用户的边缘系统产生多大共振。共振越强,参与度越高,商业价值越大。

这条脉络往下推,就到了他能给出的最尖锐的判断之一:社交媒体上的很多东西,会让人觉得自己过得比别人差。

他专门点了 Instagram 的名。

人们发的是自己真正开心的瞬间,还会修图,让自己更好看。哪怕不修图,也会挑光线最好、角度最好的那一张。所以别人看起来都比你好看,也都比你开心。你看着满屏都是快乐漂亮的人,会觉得「我不够好看,我也不快乐,那我一定很糟糕」。(马斯克)

然后是他反复引用的那个公式:幸福等于现实减去期望。

这个公式的厉害之处在于,它把幸福拆成两个变量。现实不容易改,期望天天在涨。社交媒体做的最「成功」的一件事,就是持续抬高所有人对「正常生活」的期望值。

所以他给出的解法特别朴素:去野地里住几天,看几集《原始生活 21 天》(Naked and Afraid),你会很快发现文明有多好。他说这话的时候自己也在笑,但那是他真信的东西。

帽子、火焰喷射器,和一家名字像段子的公司

话题从 AI 拉回地面,是因为马斯克提到一家公司:无聊公司(The Boring Company)。

起点是个玩笑。马斯克堵在洛杉矶路上,发推特说堵车快把他逼疯了,要造一台隧道掘进机开始挖洞,然后就真的挖了。后来有工程师觉得这事好玩,SpaceX 的老员工史蒂夫·戴维斯(Steve Davis)带头,说愿意全职干,公司就这么成立了。

这家公司的收入来源说出来有点荒诞。先是卖帽子,一款印着 The Boring Company 字样的帽子,限量。马斯克在节目里说,当时定的是卖 2 万顶,结果卖了 5 万顶,赚了 100 万美元。他一算账,那下次卖个 1000 万美元的东西吧。

于是火焰喷射器来了。

他承认这个点子来自《太空炮弹》(Spaceballs)。电影里有个桥段,主角走过周边商品区,货架上摆着一把火焰喷射器,旁边一句台词是「孩子们最喜欢这个」。马斯克看到这里就想,那我们做一把吧。

这东西定价 500 美元,2 万个,四天卖光,进账 1000 万美元。

最妙的部分在产品的实际形态。马斯克在节目里亲口承认:

说句实话,它其实就是一把屋顶喷灯加了个气枪外壳。它算不上真正的火焰喷射器。(马斯克)

他还在推特上反复劝人别买。别买这个火焰喷射器,这主意很糟,它很危险,别买。结果没人听。他在节目里一副「我尽力了」的表情:我拦不住他们。

更绝的是海关问题。火焰喷射器在很多国家禁止运输,为了帮所有海关机构省事,他们干脆在产品上标了一行字:Not a Flamethrower(不是火焰喷射器)。

这件事和马斯克的其他产品放在一起看,会发现一种很稳定的幽默感:他会做出一个明显过头的东西,然后贴心地在说明书上提醒你别买。

洛杉矶挖隧道最难的环节是文书

聊到隧道本身,罗根问了一句很多人都会问的话:在洛杉矶这种地震带挖隧道,不怕吗?

马斯克的回答值得单独拎出来,因为它反直觉。

人们以为最难的是地震,其实最难的是文书工作。隧道在地震里非常安全。地震本质上是一种地表现象,像海面上的波浪。风暴来的时候你想待在潜艇里,待在隧道里就等于待在潜艇里。(马斯克)

他解释了隧道结构:用一段段互相咬合的预制件拼起来,像一条蛇的外骨骼,接缝处是双密封,能承压 5 个大气压,防水、防甲烷、防任何气体,通过加州全部抗震标准。地震来的时候,整条隧道像一条地下蛇,能跟着地面一起移动,不会裂开。

真正的障碍在审批层。

马斯克讲了一个极有画面感的细节。洛杉矶市长埃里克·加塞蒂(Eric Garcetti)要来参观 Hyperloop 的学生比赛,决赛在周日下午。无聊公司想在市长来之前挖个坑给他看看。

那天是周五早上。他们搞定了挖坑的许可,然后 24 小时不停工,挖了大概四十多个小时,在市长来之前把坑挖好了。马斯克说这句话的时候语气特别平:就是个坑,但地上有个洞总比没洞好。

他还补了一句:没人真正关心坑的哲学意义,你只要说「我要一个坑」,然后填表,就好了。

二维马路配三维城市,堵车是数学问题

整场对话里马斯克讲得最清楚的一段技术论证,出现在这个话题上。

他提出,道路系统最根本的问题是维度不匹配。城市是三维的,楼越盖越高,人和工作机会越来越集中,交通却是二维的,所有车挤在同一个平面上。二维系统容量有限,车距必须留够,密度天然上不去。只要城市继续长高,堵车必然发生,跟司机素质、红绿灯配时都没关系。

解法只有一个方向:把交通也变成三维。往上走是飞行汽车,往下走是隧道。

他解释了为什么选往下。

飞行汽车的核心问题是噪音和气流的动量交换。你拿一个玩具无人机想想它多吵、吹多大风,再把重量乘一千倍,那就是一台飞行汽车。你邻居不会高兴的,你落在自家后院,整条街都会骂你。(马斯克)

他还补了一段物理推导:飞行器悬停时,机身质量乘以重力加速度,必须等于向下排开空气的质量乘以那团空气的加速度。这个等式躲不掉。他说没有任何办法绕过,磁悬浮也不行,因为要产生足够的斥力,磁铁会强到把周围的东西全毁了。

隧道没有这个问题。往下挖,理论上可以挖 100 层、1000 层,任何交通量都能被化解。他还补了一句有点夸张但很马斯克的话:你可以挖到地下 1 万英尺,比任何楼都深,只是越往下越热。地球本质上是一大团岩浆外面裹了一层薄壳,这层壳就是我们所认为的地表。

如果要跑得特别快,就把管道里的空气抽掉,做成真空管道,配合磁悬浮。这就是 Hyperloop 的完整逻辑。他强调那不是科幻,是工程。

「商业巨头」是个误会,八成时间在画图纸

罗根问他一天怎么安排,马斯克的回答暴露了他对自己身份的定义。

我觉得大家不太清楚我到底在干什么。他们以为我是个生意人。我维基百科页面上写的是「商业巨头」(business magnate)。(马斯克)

然后他开了个玩笑:能不能有人把我维基百科改成「商业磁铁」(business magnet),我想当一块磁铁。

玩笑开完,他认真讲了:自己 80% 以上的时间在做工程和制造。具体是结构工程、机械工程、电气工程、软件工程、用户界面工程、航空航天工程。他说这些的时候是逐项列出来的,不是笼统的「搞技术」。

这个自我定位很重要。它解释了为什么马斯克会在节目里为了「极惯性矩」的问题跟罗根争论半天,也解释了他为什么能随口讲清楚真空管道、电动飞机、牵引力控制这类细节。他在跟另一个工程师聊天,没有在做对外发言。

安全带花了十几年,AI 没有十几年

回到 AI,马斯克讲了他这些年最沮丧的一段经历。

他说他去见了奥巴马,见了国会,在一次五十个州长齐聚的会议上专门讲了 AI 的危险。他见了所有能见的人。

我试着让所有人慢下来,去监管 AI。这件事我做了好几年,完全没用,没人听。(马斯克)

他用安全带做了一个类比,这个类比把监管为什么跟不上讲得很透。

汽车工业当年抵制安全带,抵制了十几年,而且抵制成功了。尽管数据极其明显:系上安全带,死亡和重伤概率大幅下降,毫无争议。工业界就是能拖,一直拖到很多人死了,监管机构才强制要求。

这就是监管的正常节奏:新技术出现,造成伤亡,公众愤怒,调查,几年过去,成立一个委员会,制定规则,逐步监管。整个流程动辄十年。

马斯克说,这个时间尺度对 AI 不成立。等到 AI 真出问题,再走这套流程,已经来不及了。

他给出的替代方案是「先洞察再监管」:政府先成立一个洞察委员会,什么都不管,先搞清楚 AI 到底在发生什么。等这个委员会摸清了情况,再讨论规则。这是他反复提过的建议,也是他反复没推动成的建议。

最后他说自己现在的态度是「更宿命论了一点」。这不代表放弃,是一个人喊不动整个系统之后做出的心理调整。

AI 被当武器用的那一天

罗根问他,最担心哪种失控。马斯克的回答绕开了「机器人反叛」这个流行版本。

真正麻烦的地方在于,把 AI 当武器用会非常诱人。事实上它一定会被当武器用。通向严肃 AI 的那条引道上,危险更多来自人类拿它对付彼此。(马斯克)

这句话值得多念两遍。他不太担心 AI 觉醒之后主动消灭人类,他更担心人类拿着越来越强的工具互相打。工具越强,先动手的一方越有优势,军备竞赛的逻辑越难停下来。

关于结果,他给出的判断很清晰,也很冷。

它可以很糟,也可以很好,现在说不清。但有一点是确定的:我们控制不了它。(马斯克)

他用了「事件视界」这个比喻。就像黑洞,越过那条线之后会发生什么,物理定律给不出答案。AI 的奇点也这样,越过之后的世界,用今天的语言描述不了。

唯一的乐观出路他也讲了:打不过就加入。

打不过就加入:Neuralink 的完整逻辑

Neuralink 就出现在这个语境里。很多人以为这家公司想做「人机接口」这种科幻产品,马斯克给出的理由很工程化,具体到带宽。

长期看,从存在主义的角度,Neuralink 的目的是造一个高带宽的脑接口,让人类能和 AI 共生。因为我们现在有一个带宽问题,靠手指头打字沟通太慢了。(马斯克)

他接着讲了一个整场对话里最有洞察力的判断:你已经是半机械人了,只是那根管子太细。

他的原话大意是,你的手机已经是你身体的一部分。你能瞬间回答任何问题,你的手机能完美记住视频、图片、所有细节,你的记忆早就不只在自己脑子里。人和手机之间已经构成共生关系。

问题出在传输速率上。你和你数字分身之间的信息通道,像一根很细的吸管。他说需要把这根吸管换成一条大河。

症结落在接口和数据率上。解决了数据率,人和机器的共生关系才能长期维持下去。这就是 Neuralink 的全部动机。

他还给了一个很有层次的框架。人脑现在有两层:边缘系统(古老的那部分)和皮层(思考的那部分)。这两层本身就是共生关系。皮层看起来在指挥,实际上大部分算力都花在让边缘系统开心上。他说这也是他自己在做的事。

如果加第三层,也就是 AI 作为你自身的延伸,并且这一层和皮层之间有足够带宽,那么它就不会「事实上独立出去」。这种三层共生,是马斯克认为最好的结局。

他在节目里透露了一个时间点:几个月内会有发布,比任何人以为的都要好一个数量级。他没展开细节,只说自己不想抢先说。

至于「上传意识」,他的态度是两面的。技术上他认为将来可以把一个人的意识快照进计算机,生物体死了可以「装进一个新单元」。但他也认为大多数人会愿意保留生物体,而不是彻底数字化。

模拟理论和那个减法公式

话题绕到模拟理论,马斯克给出了他最经典的论证,逻辑链非常短。

假设文明有任何程度的进步,哪怕每千年只进步 1%。把时间拉到一百万年后,可能会出现两种情况之一:文明终结,或者游戏和现实无法区分。宇宙已经 138 亿岁,人类文明按最早的文字算也就七八千年,在宇宙尺度上等于零。所以只要进步速度不为零,模拟的概率就极高。

他补了一句:我们有可能就在「基础现实」里,只是概率低。

罗根追问,那如果我们是模拟,模拟外面的世界什么样。马斯克的回答有点哲学味:外面的世界大概率很无聊。如果模拟的目的是产出有趣的内容,那么做模拟的人不会花算力去模拟无聊。

他打了个电影的比方。一部动作片拍一年,剪成两小时。你去片场看,全是绿幕,反复重拍,特别无聊。成片才好看。所以如果我们在模拟里,模拟外面那个真实世界大概比这里枯燥得多。

然后话锋一转,回到日常层面。罗根问他怎么让人快乐一点。马斯克又搬出那个减法公式:幸福等于现实减去期望。

他说人总在和别人比,社交媒体把比较对象调到了「所有人最好的一面」。要动手的地方在期望这一端,现实那端很难撬。

从地下抽几万亿吨碳,是人类史上最蠢的实验

聊到气候,马斯克的语气变了。前面聊 AI 他还带着玩笑,聊这个的时候他说得很直。

我们在拿大气和海洋玩一个疯狂的游戏。我们从地底深处取出巨量碳,排进大气。这件事非常危险。这是人类历史上最蠢的实验。我们为什么要做这个?(马斯克)

他给出的逻辑是终点已知论,落脚点在必然性上,不在道德批判上。

石油迟早会挖完,能烧的化石燃料是有限的。可持续能源是必然终点,这一点所有人都同意。既然终点已知,为什么还要绕这一大圈,把几万亿吨碳从地底搬进大气和海洋?

他解释说,答案很简单:化石燃料是「容易的钱」(easy money)。

接着他讲了一个很少被提到的经济学角度:所有烧化石燃料的设备,本质上都带着一笔隐性补贴。

一座火电厂、一架飞机、一辆燃油车,它们都在消耗大气和海洋的碳容量,这笔成本没有人付。当下不付,未来一定会付。所以电动车并非「需要补贴才活得下去」,燃油车才是那个一直拿着补贴的。只是这笔账被推迟了。

至于科学共识,他的表述非常直接:他不认识任何一个严肃的科学家认为气候风险不存在。一个都没有。

换掉全球 2.5 亿辆车要 25 年

整场对话里最有说服力的数字,出现在这一段。

全球汽车和卡车保有量约 2.5 亿辆。全球新车年产量大约 1 亿辆。就算你打个响指,让今天下线的新车全部变成电动,也需要 25 年才能把整个车队换一遍。

原因在车辆寿命。一辆车从出厂到进废车场被压扁,大约 20 到 25 年。

这个数字推翻了「电动车爆发式增长就能解决气候问题」的乐观想象。物理上的替换周期就摆在那里,跟市场热情无关。所以越快开始越好,晚一年,就多一年旧车在路上跑。

他也讲了电动车的现实参数。当时的 Model S 是 100 度电的电池包,续航约 330 英里(530 公里)。有人做极限测试跑到 500 英里,方法是把胎压打得很高、开得慢、路面平整。日常使用 300 英里足够了,「你几乎不会去想它」。

600 英里的车现在就能造,加个 200 度电的电池包就行,问题是太贵。

他还讲了充电的细节。家用充电就是接一个烘干机插座(dryer plug),睡一觉就满了,不用专门跑充电站。他自己屋顶上就装了太阳能,正在试用。他承认这件事大多数人还没意识到。

电动车的隐藏优势:毫秒级牵引力控制

这是马斯克讲得最兴奋的一段,因为它是纯工程问题。

电动车的牵引力控制(traction control)比燃油车强一个量级,原因是响应速度。

燃油车的动力有延迟,发动机要反应,变速箱要换挡,指令到轮上有明显的滞后。电动机的响应在毫秒级。马斯克打了个比方:你不会用汽油发动机去驱动打印机,也不会用它去驱动手术设备。那种东西只能用电机,因为需要精度。

他讲了一个具体场景。车压过一小块冰,电机能在这块冰消失后几英寸之内重新分配牵引力。站在电机的视角,车走得非常非常慢,它一秒钟能思考一千次。「你像一只蜗牛在移动,它在旁边已经把这件事想过一千遍了。」

特斯拉在瑞典的冰湖上做冬季测试,也在挪威、加拿大、新西兰做。系统会纠正车身姿态,在车真的打滑之前就介入。他的原话是:这套系统让你觉得自己是超人,让你觉得自己是个了不起的司机。

顺带他讲了一个防水段子。有人在哈萨克斯坦开着一辆特斯拉,穿过一条被水淹没的隧道,车直接当船开,靠转方向盘和踩油门浮过去。原因是特斯拉的电池包做了防水处理。

Autopilot 的动机:一个打瞌睡的司机和一个骑自行车的人

罗根问自动驾驶为什么推得这么急。马斯克讲了一个具体的故事,这个故事他这些年反复提。

早期有一位特斯拉车主在高速上开着车睡着了,车撞上一位骑自行车的人,那位骑车人死了。

我当时就想,如果我们有 Autopilot,他可能还是会睡着,但至少他不会撞死那个骑自行车的人。(马斯克)

他说这就是 Autopilot 加速上线的直接原因。商业考虑是次要的,主要动因是他看到了一种本可以避免的死亡。

对比很直接:人开车会睡着,每年都有人因为打瞌睡撞死人。机器不会睡着,机器不会分心,机器不会突然情绪上头去别车。

Autopilot 的具体能力他讲得很清楚:从高速入口到高速出口全程接管,自动变道超车,跨多个高速立交,接入导航系统,中间不用碰方向盘。他承认第一次体验「有点诡异」。

如果司机长时间不碰方向盘,车会逐渐减速、打双闪、把司机叫醒。老版本有个段子,说车会先「哔」一下,罗根开玩笑说可以定制一个温柔的女声,说「起床啦,小太阳」。

关于变道的性格,他也讲了。在洛杉矶,变道不稍微强势一点根本插不进去。所以系统允许调节「保守」还是「激进」。他笑说有时候你稍微有点火气,旁边车反而会加速不让你进。

福特和特斯拉,仅有的两家没破产的美国车企

聊到创业,马斯克给了一个很少人知道的行业事实:美国汽车工业历史上,只有两家公司没有破产过,福特和特斯拉。就这两家。

他说汽车公司极难存活,2008 年那会儿更难。一家创业汽车公司,还是一家电动车创业公司,在 2008 年融资,他把这形容为「愚蠢的平方」。

他难得坦率地复盘了 Roadster 的错误。第一代 Roadster 基于路特斯 Elise(Lotus Elise)的底盘改装,这个策略建立在两个错误的前提上。

第一个前提:可以低成本地把 Elise 改造成电动车。第二个前提:可以用一家叫 AC Propulsion 的小公司的电驱动和电池技术。

结果 AC Propulsion 的技术在量产里跑不通,最后一点都没用上。加上电池包和电机之后,车重增加了 30%,整个车身结构、碰撞结构全部要重做。最终和原车型共用的零件不到 7%,连空调都要重做。原来的空调是皮带驱动的,电动车需要一个小型、高效、电驱动的压缩机,这在当年极难搞。

这段复盘的珍贵之处在于,它没有成功学叙事,一个工程师在讲自己怎么踩坑。

保时捷 911 的物理死结

话题转到保时捷 911,马斯克讲了一段很硬的物理。

911 的发动机挂在后轴之后。马斯克认为这在物理上有根本缺陷,问题出在极惯性矩(polar moment of inertia)。

极惯性矩可以理解成「把车当陀螺转起来的阻力」。质量越集中在两端,这个值越糟,车越难控制。发动机挂在车尾最末端,等于把最重的部件放到了最不该放的位置。马斯克说这无解,跟调校无关,是几何问题。

他提到,911 能把这件事做到今天这个程度,本身就是工程奇迹。等于是在跟牛顿对着干,还打赢了一半。

他自己以前开 911,是 997 那一代。他夸了涡轮的可变叶片技术,说这解决了涡轮迟滞。老款涡轮的延迟有多夸张,他的原话大意是:你踩下去,先给家里打个电话,一个小时之后动力才来。

这段对话里藏着一个细节:马斯克现在只有两辆汽油车,一辆 1961 年的捷豹 E-Type,一辆朋友送的福特 Model T。其余的,全是电动车。

彩蛋文化,和一块看不见电池的屋顶

聊到 Model X,罗根问那台车跳舞的视频是怎么回事。马斯克说,有几个特斯拉工程师提议让车跟着音乐跳舞,他觉得很好,让他们赶在圣诞节之前做出来。

这就是那个著名的「芭蕾」彩蛋。车会打开车门,跟着《Trans-Siberian Orchestra》的曲子摆动。它是一个隐藏功能,需要主动触发,很多人开了几年都不知道自己的车能这么干。

马斯克说特斯拉车里藏了很多这类东西,藏在 Model S、Model X、Model 3 里,用户不搜就永远不知道。他承认公司应该做个视频统一讲一遍,因为连他自己的好朋友都不知道自己的车有这些功能。

他还提到把雅达利(Atari)模拟器装进车里,可以玩《导弹指挥官》(Missile Command)和《登月者》(Lunar Lander)。原版《导弹指挥官》用轨迹球太难,他们做了触屏优化版,普通人终于能玩了。

太阳能屋顶是另一个话题。马斯克解释了两种产品形态:一种是给已有屋顶加装的太阳能板,适合屋顶还新的房子。另一种是把太阳能电池直接嵌进瓦片里,适合新建或翻新屋顶。

难点在玻璃工艺。你要让阳光透进去,又要让反射出来的光不暴露后面那片电池。涂层和分层得反复调,稍微没弄好,屋顶看上去就有点不对劲。他承认这件事非常难。

他还讲了一个多数人忽略的家庭能源真相:空调是最大的耗电项,电视根本不算什么。空调浪费的主要原因是,大多数人不会去设分时段,因为设置面板太难用了,像在给录像机编程,永远闪着 12:00。于是大家干脆让它全天保持一个温度。

他提出的改进很朴素:让系统能预测你什么时候回家,只在你快到家的时候把常用的房间降温。特斯拉的车知道你在回家路上,这个数据可以接进空调系统。

法官、警察,和一位有物理学位的市长

话题转到制度层面,马斯克讲了一段很不一样的看法。

他说自己打过不少官司,对美国司法系统的整体印象是正面的。法官很聪明,陪审团通常也判断得不错。他提到那个在特斯拉里睡着撞死骑行者、反过来起诉特斯拉的司机,理由是「新车的味道让他分心」。法官直接把这个案子驳了。

他也提到私人监狱的问题。他说私人监狱制造了错误的激励,这一点需要警惕。但他同时强调,那个腐败的法官进了监狱,系统的自我纠错能力在起作用。

关于警察和军人,他的评价更正了一些:他认识的警察大多诚实,他认识的军人比普通人更有荣誉感和道德感。但他补了一个重要的限定:这不代表可以对制度松懈,一旦有人滥用了社会给予的信任位置,就要格外警惕、必须行动。

他还提到一个观察:地区检察官(DA)每天打交道的都是罪犯,很容易对世界形成负面看法。但实际犯罪的人只占社会很小一部分。哪怕按最坏的比例算,美国 3.3 亿人里最坏的那百万分之一,也就三百多人,同时也有三百多人是好得难以置信的人。

聊到政客的科学素养,他给了一个具体的对比。他说中国官员的科学背景让他印象很深,北京市长有环境工程学位,副市长有物理学学位,上海市长也很聪明。他补了一句:他希望美国政客更懂科学,这会帮上大忙。

隐私、华为和「没人在乎你看什么」

罗根问到隐私和手机安全,马斯克的回答挺反直觉。

他说,如果你手里有绝密级的东西,那你确实要在硬件上非常谨慎。对绝大多数普通人,国家安全机构对你没有兴趣。

国家间谍机构根本不在乎你看什么色情内容。他们真的不在乎。一个普通公民身上,他们能学到什么秘密?什么都没有。(马斯克)

关于华为手机,他的判断也是分层的:国家安全部门该不该用华为手机,留了个问号。普通老百姓用它,他认为问题不大,中国政府不太会关心一个普通美国人的日常。

他还提了一个更超前的判断:今天我们觉得需要保密的东西,将来可能根本不重要。真正会变成争夺焦点的,可能是观念层面的战争(war of ideas)。而达尔文那套东西不会消失,只会换一个竞技场继续。

多星球文明,是唯一让人想早起的未来

聊到最后,罗根问了一个很大的问题:你做这一切到底为了什么。

马斯克的回答意外地柔软。

我的目标是尽可能做有用的事,尽可能提高未来变好的概率,让未来变得让人期待。你早上醒来,会期待这一天,会期待那个未来。(马斯克)

他描述了那个未来:人类成为跨行星物种,走出地球,分布在很多星球和很多恒星系。如果未来是我们永远被困在地球上,会是一个让人难过的未来。

他还提到时间尺度。大约 5 亿年后,太阳会把地球的海洋煮沸。那不是明天的事,但它是必然会发生的事。让文明延续得更久一点,本身就值得做。

他还讲了自己小时候的一个细节。五六岁的时候,他觉得自己可能疯了,因为他脑子里一直在爆炸式地冒出想法,而他观察到别的小孩不是这样。他的结论是「我很奇怪」,并且希望别人不要发现,因为「他们可能会把我关起来」。

这段话放在整场对话的最后,把马斯克身上那个矛盾解释清楚了:一个脑子永远在爆炸的人,做事的动机跟正常人不太一样。他做特斯拉、做 SpaceX、做 Neuralink、做无聊公司,驱动力跟财富关系不大,跟一种停不下来的状态关系很大。他自己说,这种状态很难关掉。

「爱是答案」,以及少刷点手机

罗根问他,如果可以对所有人说一句话,说什么。马斯克先自嘲了一句「这听起来很老套」,然后说:爱是答案。

接着他给了两个更具体的建议。第一,多跟朋友待在一起,少花时间在社交媒体上。第二,默认相信别人是好人,直到有证据显示不是。「人比你想象的要好,多给别人一点信任。」

他自己并不是社交媒体的绝缘体。他说自己只保留了 Twitter,因为需要一个对外发声的渠道,其他平台都停了。他承认 Twitter 上负面评论极多,自己的处理方式是大部分直接忽略,偶尔会被卷进去,那感觉不好。

他还讲了一句所有人都该记住的话:删推是没用的。互联网有记忆,你说过的话在你的「永久档案」里。这话他说得特别轻松,像一个真的踩过坑的人在提醒别人。

节目最后,罗根问他还有什么想说的。马斯克说,人们应该对彼此更好一点,多给别人一些信任,不要轻易把别人妖魔化。「你通常是错的。人比你想象的要好。」

节目到这里结束。桌上还剩着威士忌,那把「不是火焰喷射器」的东西摆在旁边,录影棚的灯还亮着。

能带走并直接用上的几条

这场对话信息量很大,真正能落到日常行动上的,是下面这几条。

  • 看 AI 的时候盯斜率,别盯今天的产品。「生物引导程序」这个比喻的重点不在预言末日,它在提醒一件事:能力曲线一旦陡起来,留给社会反应的时间会比历史上任何一次技术冲击都短。安全带花了十几年才强制,AI 没有十几年。
  • 把「幸福等于现实减期望」抄下来贴在手机背面。下次刷社交媒体觉得难受的时候,问自己一句:我是不是在拿自己的幕后花絮,跟别人的精彩集锦比。这个公式随时可以做减法,比任何心理安慰都管用。
  • 少刷社交,多约朋友。马斯克在节目里给的就是这个建议,字面意思,不含隐喻。他说完还补了一句:我自己也只留了一个平台,因为工作需要。
  • 默认相信别人是好人,直到有反证。这条建议的稀缺之处在于,说这话的人管理着几万人、打过无数官司、被无数人骂过。他见过坏人,见过之后依然这么建议。
  • 重新算一遍燃油车和电动车的补贴账。按马斯克的算法,真正拿着隐性补贴的是燃油车,它消耗大气和海洋的碳容量,没人替这笔账付钱。你只是替未来垫付。
  • 装太阳能之前先分清两种形态。屋顶还新就加装太阳能板,屋顶要换就直接上太阳能瓦。家里耗电大头在空调,把空调的分时段设好,比换任何电器都省,而且系统该学会在你要到家的时候才降温。
  • 把两个尺度记在心里。5 亿年后太阳会煮沸海洋;宇宙已经 138 亿岁,人类文明七千年。在堵车、吵架、刷手机的时候,稍微换个参照系。

马斯克在节目里说过一句话,可以作为这几条建议的收口:如果你悲观,你只会过得很惨。他宁愿乐观而错,也不愿悲观而对。

第三方整理文稿,仅保留马斯克本人发言。 文稿来源:The Singju Post (transcription éditée)。

Hey, welcome.

Nice to meet you too.

You’re welcome. That’s coming later.

Well, we didn’t put a lot of time into the flamethrower. This was an off-the-cuff thing. So it’s sort of a hobby company called the Boring Company, which started out as a joke and we decided to make it real and dig a tunnel. And then other people asked us to dig tunnels and so we said yes in a few cases. And then we have a merchandise section that only has one piece of merchandise at a time. And we started off with a cap and there was only one thing. It was just boringcompany.com cap or hat. That’s it. And then we sold the hats, limited edition. It just said the Boring Company. And then I’m a big fan of Spaceballs the movie. And in Spaceballs, Yogurt goes through the merchandising section and they have a flamethrower in the merchandising section of Spaceballs. And “the kids love that one.” That’s the line when he pulls out the flamethrower. It’s like, we should do a flamethrower. So we did.

Yeah. It’s a terrible idea. Terrible. Shouldn’t buy one. I said don’t buy this flamethrower. Don’t buy it. Don’t buy it. That’s what I said. But still people bought it. There’s nothing I can do to stop them.

I said don’t buy it. It’s a bad idea.

It’s dangerous, it’s wrong. Don’t buy it. Still, people bought it. I couldn’t stop them.

20,000. And they’re all gone in three, I think four days. We sold out in four days.

No.

Yes. I said we would do 20. We did 50,000 hats and that was a million dollars. And okay, well, we’ll sell something for 10 million. And that was 20,000 flamethrowers at $500 each. They went fast.

I mean, I didn’t spend much time on this flamethrower. I mean, to be totally frank, it’s actually just a roofing torch with an air rifle cover. It’s not a real flamethrower, which is—

That’s why we were very clear this is not actually a flamethrower. And also we were told that various countries would ban shipping of it, but they would ban flamethrowers. So we very—to solve this problem for all the customs agencies, we labeled it “not a flamethrower.”

I don’t know. I think so.

You cannot ship a flamethrower.

I mean, I’m not saying it’s going to be successful or, you know, I mean, it’s not like asserting that it’s going to be successful. But so far, I’ve lived in LA for 16 years and the traffic has always been terrible. And so I don’t see any other ideas for improving the traffic. So in desperation, we’re going to dig a tunnel and maybe that tunnel will be successful and maybe it won’t.

Yeah. I’m not trying to convince you it’s going to work.

Yeah.

Yeah, it’s in LA because I mostly live in LA. That’s the reason. It’s a terrible place to dig tunnels. This is one of the worst places to dig tunnels because, mostly because of the paperwork. People think it’s, “what about seismic?” It’s actually, tunnels are very safe in earthquakes.

Earthquakes are essentially a surface phenomenon. It’s waves on the ocean. So if there’s a storm, you want to be in a submarine. So being in a tunnel is being in a submarine. Now, the way the tunnel is constructed is it’s constructed out of these interlocking segments, kind of a snake. It’s sort of a snake exoskeleton with double seals. And so even when the ground moves, the tunnel actually is able to shift along with the ground like an underground snake. And it doesn’t crack or break. And it’s extremely unlikely that both seals would be broken. And it’s capable of taking 5 atmospheres of pressure. It’s waterproof, methane proof, or gas proof of any kind, and meets all California seismic requirements.

I’m not sure what you mean by that.

Yeah. So there were some engineers from SpaceX who thought it would be cool to do this. And the guy who runs it day to day, Steve Davis—he’s a longtime SpaceX engineer. He’s great. So Steve was, “I’d like to help make this happen.” I was, “cool.” So we started off with digging a hole in the ground. He’s got a permit for a pit, big pit, and just dug a big pit.

Nice. Fill out this form. That’s it. Yeah, it was a pit in our parking lot.

Now we just started off with a pit.

And now, you know, there’s not really—you know, don’t really care about the existential nature of a pit. You just say, “I want a pit.”

And saw a hole in the ground. So then we got the permit for the pit and we dug the pit and we dug it in, I don’t know, three days. Two, three days, actually. I think 48 hours, something that. Because Eric Garcetti was coming by for the Hyperloop. He was going to attend the Hyperloop competition, which is a student competition we have for who can make the fastest pod in the Hyperloop. And he was coming. The finals were going to be on Sunday afternoon. And so Eric was coming by on Sunday afternoon. He was, you know, “we should take this pit and then show Eric.” So we—this was Friday morning and then—yeah. So it was about a little over 40 hours later we dug the pit. It was 24/7. Oh, 24, 48 straight hours, something that. And dug this big pit. And we showed Eric the pit. It’s, obviously it’s just a pit, but, hey, hole in the ground is better than no hole in the ground.

Nothing wrong with a hole in the ground. People dig holes in the ground all the time.

I got a million ideas.

There’s no shortage of that. Yeah.

You know, I do, basically—I think people don’t totally understand what I do with my time. They think I’m a business guy or something that. My Wikipedia page says “business magnate.”

Business Magnet. Can someone please change my Wikipedia page to Magnet?

So somebody has to be able to unlock it and change it to Magnet.

I want to be a magnet. I do engineering and manufacturing and that kind of thing. That’s 80% more of my time ideas.

That’s hardcore engineering, designing things, you know?

Structural, mechanical, electrical, software, user interface engineering, aerospace engineering.

Yes.

We’re all chimps.

We’re one notch above a chimp.

Because I’m an alien.

I might have some mutation or something that.

Not bad for a human. But I think we will not be able to hold a candle to AI.

That’s true.

Yeah, you could probably do that right now.

Probably not wise for retribution. Their memory is very good.

It’s really good. I bet it is, yes.

It’s really good.

Yes. It’s less of a worry than it used to be, mostly due to taking more of a fatalistic attitude.

Pretty much. No, it’s not necessarily bad. It’s just, it’s definitely going to be outside of human control.

Yes, it’s not necessarily bad. It’s just outside of human control. Now the thing that’s going to be tricky here is that it’s going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon. It’s going to be very tempting. In fact, it will be used as a weapon. So the on-ramp to serious AI, the danger is going to be more humans using it against each other. I think most likely that will be the danger.

Well, I mean you could argue that any group of people, like a company, is essentially a cybernetic collective of people and machines. That’s what a company is. And then there are different levels of complexity in the way these companies are formed. And then there’s this sort of collective AI in the Google search. You know, where we’re all sort of plugged in as nodes on the network, like leaves on a big tree. And we’re all feeding this network with questions and answers. We’re all collectively programming the AI. And Google, plus the older humans that connect to it, are one giant cybernetic collective. This is also true of Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and all these social networks. They’re giant cybernetic collectors.

Yes, constantly.

Yes, I made this comment some years ago, but it feels like we are the biological bootloader for AI. Effectively, we are building it and then we’re building progressively greater intelligence and the percentage of intelligence that is not human is increasing and eventually we will represent a very small percentage of intelligence. But the AI isn’t formed strangely by the human limbic system. It is in large part our ID writ large.

We mention all those things, the sort of primal drives. There’s all the things that we like, add hate and fear. They’re all there on the Internet. They’re a projection of our limbic system.

Yeah. This is in some measure, like the success of these online systems is sort of a function of how much limbic resonance they’re able to achieve with people. The more limbic resonance, the more engagement.

Limbic resonance.

Yes.

Yes. Things are getting more and more connected. They’re at this point constrained by bandwidth. Our input output is slow, particularly output. Output got worse with thumbs. You know, we used to have input with 10 fingers, now we have thumbs. But images are just, are also, they’re a way of communicating at high bandwidth. You take pictures and you send pictures to people that communicates far more information than you can communicate with your thumbs.

I tried to convince people to slow down. Slow down AI, to regulate AI. This was futile. I tried for years.

Nobody listened.

Maybe they will. So far they haven’t. I think people don’t like, normally the way that regulations work is very slow, very slow indeed. So usually it will be something, some new technology. It will cause damage or death. There will be an outcry, there will be investigation, years will pass. There will be some sort of insights committee, there will be rulemaking, then there will be oversight, eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things. If you look at say automotive regulations, how long did it take for seat belts to be implemented, to be required? You know, the auto industry fought seat belts, I think for more than a decade, successfully fought any regulations on seat belts. Even though the numbers were extremely obvious. If you had a seatbelt on, you would be far less likely to die or be seriously injured. It was unequivocal. And the industry fought this for years, successfully. Eventually, after many, many people died, regulators insisted on seat belts. This time frame is not relevant to AI. You can’t take 10 years from the point at which it’s dangerous. It’s too late.

It’s not necessarily a doomsday countdown.

Out of control? Yeah. People call it the singularity and that’s probably a good way to think about it. It’s a singularity. It’s hard to predict like a black hole, what happens past the event horizon.

Change out of the bottle, what’s going.

Yes.

Yeah.

Ridiculous.

It could be terrible and it could be great. It’s not clear. But one thing is for sure, we will not control it.

Well, that’s the scenario. The merge scenario with AI is the one that seems like probably the best for us. Yes. If you can’t beat it, join it.

You know, so from a long term existential standpoint, that’s like the purpose of Neuralink, is to create a high bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI because we have a bandwidth problem. You just can’t communicate through your fingers, it’s too slow.

I think we’ll have something interesting to announce in a few months that’s at least an order of magnitude better than anything else, I think. Better than probably anyone thinks is possible.

I don’t want to jump the gun on that.

I think best case scenario we effectively merge with AI, where AI serves as a tertiary cognition layer where we’ve got the limbic system, kind of the primitive brain. Essentially you’ve got the cortex, so you’re currently in a symbiotic relationship. Your cortex and limbic system are in a symbiotic relationship. And generally people like their cortex and they like their limbic system. I haven’t met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or delete their cortex. Everybody seems to like both. And the cortex is mostly in service to the limbic system. People may think that the thinking part of themselves is in charge, but it’s mostly their limbic system that’s in charge. And the cortex is trying to make the limbic system happy. That’s what most of that computing power is oriented towards. How can I make the limbic system happy? That’s what I was trying to do. Now, if we do have a third layer, which is the AI extension of yourself, that is also symbiotic and there’s enough bandwidth between the cortex and the AI extension of yourself, such that the AI doesn’t de facto separate, then that could be a good outcome. That could be quite a positive outcome for the future.

Yes, it will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition. Anyone who wants. This is not a matter of earning power, because your earning power would be vastly greater after you do it. So it’s just like anyone who wants can just do it in theory. That’s the theory. And if that’s the case, then, and let’s say billions of people do it, then the outcome for humanity will be the sum of human will, the sum of billions of people’s desire for the future.

It would be difficult to really appreciate the difference. It’s kind of like, how much smarter are you with a phone or computer than without? You’re vastly smarter, actually. You can answer any question if you’re connected to the Internet. You can answer any question pretty much instantly. Any calculation that your phone’s memory is essentially perfect. You can remember flawlessly. Your phone can remember videos, pictures, everything perfectly. Your phone is already an extension of you. You’re already a cyborg. You don’t even—well, most people don’t realize they are already a cyborg. That phone is an extension of yourself. It’s just that the data rate, the rate at which the communication rate between you and the cybernetic extension of yourself, that is your phone and computer is slow. It’s very slow. And that’s like a tiny straw of information flow between your biological self and your digital self. And we need to make that tiny straw, like a giant river. Huge high bandwidth interface. It’s an interface problem. Data rate problem. Solve the data rate problem. Then I think we hang on to human machine symbiosis through the long term. And then people may decide that they want to retain their biological self or not. I think they’ll probably choose to retain their biological self versus some sort of—

You will be essentially snapshotted into a computer at any time. If your biological self dies, you could just probably just upload into a new unit, literally.

Down the rabbit hole.

I’ve been thinking about this for a long time, by the way.

Cheers. Yeah. This is a great whiskey.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I was really going on the warning quite a lot. I was warning everyone I could. You ever met with Obama. And just for one reason, look, I—

Yes.

Worry about her first.

Everybody be quiet. No, he listened. He certainly listened to—I met with Congress. I met with—I was at a meeting of all 50 governors and talked about just AI danger. And I talked to everyone I could. No one seemed to realize where this was going.

Yeah, I think they didn’t quite understand it or didn’t think it was near term or not sure what to do about it. When I said, you know, an obvious thing to do is to just establish a committee, government committee, to gain insight before you do oversight, before you do, make regulations to try to understand what’s going on. And then if you have an insight committee, then once they learn what’s going on, get up to speed, then they can make maybe some rules or propose some rules. And that would be probably a safer way to go about things.

Who do you want to handle this?

Oh, geez.

But I don’t have the power to regulate other companies. What am I supposed to—

And whether—

For those reasons.

Chimps are mean.

F *ing mean.

I saw that movie Chimpanzee. I thought it was going to be some Disney thing.

Looks pretty cool. Chimpanzee.

Yeah, yeah. It’s kind of a documentary of, damn, these chimps are mean.

Yeah. They’re cruel.

Yeah. Yeah.

And I didn’t realize chimps did calculated cruelty.

I was pretty—I left that meeting kind of thinking, “Whoa, this is dark,” right?

I don’t know. How much do we think about chimps? Not much. Very little. It’s like these chimps are at war. These little—it’s like groups of chimps just attack each other and they kill each other. They torture each other. That’s pretty bad. They hunt monkeys. They’re—but this is probably the most—you know. I mean, when’s the last time you talked about chimps?

You do. Talking to the wrong guy, unfortunately.

Okay.

Yeah, exactly. And there’s the bonobos. They got a better philosophy.

They just seem to resolve everything with sex.

Okay, that’s it.

Yeah.

Yeah. I haven’t seen the bonobo movie.

They’re just constantly going—

Yeah.

Just won’t stop. Yeah.

What’s with these labels? I haven’t seen bonobos at a zoo. That’s probably not in the PG section. Yeah.

We’ve looked that up before, too. It’s probably pretty awkward.

San Diego’s in Wisconsin. Yeah.

Separate them. Yeah. I mean, how many other—in a cage it’s going to be pretty intense.

I think one of the issues with social media that’s been pointed out by many people is that I think maybe particularly Instagram people look like they have a much better life than they really do.

Yeah. People are posting pictures of when they’re really happy. They’re modifying those pictures to be better looking. Even if they’re not modifying the pictures, they’re at least selecting the pictures for the best lighting, the best angle. So people basically seem they’re way better looking than they basically really are.

They’re way happier seeming than they really are. So if you look at everyone on Instagram, you might think, “Man, there are all these happy, beautiful people and I’m not that good looking and I’m not happy, so I must suck,” you know, and that’s going to make you feel sad. So when in fact those people you think are super happy, actually not that happy. Some of them are really depressed, they’re very sad. Some of the happiest seeming people, actually some of the saddest people in reality. And nobody looks good all the time. Doesn’t matter who you are.

Yeah, exactly. So I think things like that can make people quite sad just by comparison. Because people generally think of themselves relative to others. We are constantly re-baselining our expectations. And you can see this say if you watch some show like Naked and Afraid or if you just go and try living in the woods by yourself for a while and you’ll learn that civilization is quite great. People want to come back to civilization pretty fast on Naked and Afraid.

Yeah, well, happiness is reality minus expectations.

Ooh.

Emojis. Emojis. A lot of emojis.

Yeah. Do I live in the simulation? Yeah, maybe in the simulation.

It will be at some point indistinguishable from reality where we’ll lose this.

I hope you think so.

This could be some simulation.

Well, the argument for the simulation, I think is quite strong because if you assume any improvement at all over time, any improvement, 1%, 0.1%. Just extend the time frame. Make it a thousand years. A million years. The universe is 13.8 billion years old. What would a civilization, if you counted, if you’re very generous, civilization is maybe 7 or 8,000 years old. If you count it from the first writing. This is nothing. This is nothing. So if you assume any rate of improvement at all, then games will be indistinguishable from reality or civilization will end. One of those two things will occur. Therefore, we are most likely in a simulation.

We could be in base reality. We could be in base reality.

Mason Johnson suede shoes.

Yes. But then people will go get a mason jar with a wine stem or a handle. That’s dark. Makes me lose faith in humanity.

Yes.

It was made with a wine stem made with a handle.

Yes.

So that would be fine if it was. They glued it on or something. But it was made that way.

Here it is right there. Yep.

Yeah. That’s almost what that is.

Yeah. Anyway, I don’t want to sound like things are too dark because I think you kind of have to be optimistic about the future. There’s no point in being pessimistic. It’s just too negative. It doesn’t help. I think you want to be. My theory is you’d rather be optimistic. I’d rather be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right. At least. Or on that side.

Because if you’re pessimistic, you’re just going to be miserable.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Enjoy the journey.

I mean, ultimately, even if we just sort of existed as humans forever, we’d be. We’d still. Eventually. That’d be like the heat death of the universe a zillion years from now. Right.

Eventually it’s going to end. It’s just a question of when. So it really is all about the journey.

The universe as we know it will dissipate into a fine mistake of cold nothingness eventually.

It’s just a very long time. So I think it’s really just about how can we make it last longer.

I think most likely this is just about probability. There are many, many simulations. These simulations are. We might as well call them reality, or you could call them multiverse.

They’re running on the substrate. So that substrate is probably boring.

Well, when we create a simulation like a game or a movie, it’s a distillation of what’s interesting about life. You know, it takes a year to shoot an action movie and then that’s all distilled down into two or three hours. So let me tell you, if you see an action movie being filmed, it’s boring. Super boring. Takes, there’s like lots of takes. Everything’s in a green screen. Looks pretty goofy, doesn’t look cool, but once you add the CGI and have great editing, it’s amazing. So I think most likely if we’re a simulation, it’s really boring outside the simulation because why would you make a simulation that’s boring? It makes simulation way more interesting than base reality.

Yes.

Yes.

This notion of place or where is a…

Yes, flawed like that. If you have this sort of that Vive that’s made by Valve and it’s really Valve that made it. HTC did the hardware, but it’s really a Valve thing.

Yes, Valve. Great company.

When you’re in that virtual reality, which is only going to get better, where are you? Where are you really? You aren’t anywhere. You’re in the computer.

Exactly right? It’s your perception.

You’re right here.

Why do you think you’re where you are right now? You might not be.

You think you’re in a studio in LA?

You might be in a computer.

Yeah.

Let’s find out. Well, I think we should take the actions, the set of actions that are most likely to make the future better.

And then reevaluate those actions to make sure they’re. That it’s true.

Sorry. Yeah.

Yeah, that’s cool.

Yeah.

You should see what the Tesla can do. You didn’t. You should. I’ll show you afterwards.

Yeah, but most people don’t know what—

Well, any car can do that.

I mean, the Model X can do this ballet thing to the Trans Siberian Orchestra. It’s pretty cool.

Yes.

Yes.

Seemed like fun.

Look at this, dude. A flamethrower.

I want to be clear. It’s definitely not a—

Well, I mean, in that case, there were some engineers at Tesla that said, “What if we make this car dance and play music?” I was like, “That sounds great. Please do it. Let’s try to get it done in time for Christmas.” We did.

No, it won’t do that.

Nope.

Nope. Actually, you have to. It’s an Easter egg.

Yeah. That’s why people don’t know about it. Including people who have the car. It could do lots of things. Lots of things.

Oh, everyone. If you search for it on the Internet, you will find out. But people don’t know that they should even search for it.

Yes. Yes. There’s so many things about the Model X and the Model S and the Model 3 that people don’t know about. We should probably do a video or something and explain it because I have close friends of mine and I say, “Do you know the car can do this?” And they’re like, “Nope.”

No, I think it’s probably not. We should tell people.

I mean, I think a Tesla is the most fun thing you could possibly buy ever. That’s what it’s meant to be. Our goal is to make—it’s not exactly a car, it’s actually a thing to maximize enjoyment, make it maximum fun.

Yeah.

And we’re going to put video games in it.

Yeah.

Well, you won’t be able to drive while you’re playing the video game. But for example, we’re just putting the Atari emulator ROM emulator in it so you’ll be able to play Missile Command and Lunar Lander and a bunch of other things.

It’s pretty fun.

Yeah. And we improved the interface of the Missile Command because it was too hard with the old trackball. So this is a touchscreen version of Missile Command. So you have a chance.

Yeah, how’d you know that? That’s 61 Series 1E type Jaguar.

It’s great.

Yeah, the only two. Only two gasoline cars I have are that and an old Ford Model T that a friend of mine gave me.

My only two gasoline cars.

Okay. I have the convertible.

Yes.

That is. It’s not mine. It’s extremely close to mine, but I don’t have a front license plate on mine.

Mine looks like that.

That’s what mine looks like. Maybe that is mine.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Yeah. My E type is basically no electronics.

Yes.

Yes.

It’s driving itself better every day.

It’s like we’re about to release the software that will enable you to just turn it on and it’ll drive from highway on ramp to highway exit, do lane changes to overtake other cars to go from one interchange to the next. If you get on, say, the 405, get off 300 miles later and go through several highway interchanges and just overtake other cars and hook into the nav system and then—

It’s kind of eerie. It’s kind of eerie.

Yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

We changed the software. That’s, I think, an old video. We changed software where if you don’t touch the wheel, it will gradually slow down and put the emergency lights on and wake you up.

Yeah, that’s hilarious. Yeah.

Well, it’s sort of more of a—it sort of honks.

Yeah.

We could gently wake you up with a sultry voice.

“Wake up, sunshine.”

Exactly. Why don’t you wake up like—you could pick your—pick what you want.

Do you want it seductive?

What flavor of—do you want her to be angry? Could be anything.

Yeah, yeah. It’s like, you know, we’re like, “Well, you know, people just falling asleep. We’ve got to do something about that.”

People fall asleep in cars all the time and crash.

At least our car doesn’t crash. That’s better. It’s better not to crash. Imagine if that guy had fallen asleep in a gasoline car. They do it all the time.

Then they would crash into somebody.

In fact, the thing that really got me to—it’s like, man, we better get autopilot going and get it out. There was a guy in an early Tesla driving down the highway, and he fell asleep and he ran over a cyclist and killed him. And the cyclist was—I was like, “Man, if we had autopilot, wouldn’t have run out of—he might have fallen asleep, but at least he wouldn’t have run over that cyclist.”

Yes. Yeah. You can program it to be more or less, more conservative, more aggressive driver, and you can say what speed you want it to—what speed is—

Well, for lane changes, it’s tricky because if you’re in LA, unless you’re pretty aggressive, it’s pretty hard to change lanes sometimes.

You got to be a little pushy. Yeah. Especially if you’re angry. If you’re a little angry, they don’t want you in. They speed up sometimes.

Do you think the neural link will help that? Everybody be locked in together. This hive mind.

That’ll help a lot.

Nice thing about tunnels is you can go 3D, so you can go many levels.

So until you hit hell. Yeah. But you could go. You could have 100 levels of tunnel, no problem.

This is one of the fundamental things people don’t appreciate about tunnels, is that it’s not like roads. The fundamental issue with roads is that you have a 2D transport system and a 3D living and workspace environment. So you got all these tall buildings or concentrated work environments, and then you want to go into this 2D transport system. Hugely inefficient, pretty low density, because cars are spaced out pretty far. And so that obviously is not going to work. You’re going to have traffic, guaranteed. But if you can go 3D on your transport system, then you can solve all traffic. You can either go 3D up with a flying car or you can go 3D down with tunnels. You can have as many tunnel levels as you want. You can arbitrarily relieve any amount of traffic. You can go further down with tunnels than you can go up with buildings. You’re 10,000 feet down if you want. I wouldn’t recommend it, but—

Batman.

Batman fought dragons.

Reign of Fire.

No. Terrible movie. Terrible movie, but good. I wouldn’t recommend drilling super far down. Yeah, but you get rid of it, it gets hot.

Molten earth is a giant ball of lava with a thin crust on the top, which we think of as the surface, this thin crust, and it’s mostly just a big ball of lava. That’s Earth. But 10,000 feet is not a big deal.

Ha. I think that’s a troll situation.

I mean, if it works for them, sure, fine.

The next generation Roadster. Standard edition. Yeah.

That’s what that.

Yeah. Without the performance package.

Yes.

We’re going to put rocket thrusters on it.

Yes.

Nothing. Ultra high pressure compressed air.

Just cold gas thrusters.

It’s an electric pump. Whoa. Pump it up to 10,000 psi.

How fast do you want to go?

Make it fly.

Too noisy and there’s too much airflow. So the fundamental issue with flying cars, if you get one of those toy drones, think of how much, how loud those are and how much air they blow. Now imagine if that’s a thousand times heavier. This is not going to make your neighbors happy. Your neighbors are not going to be happy if you land a flying car in your backyard. It’ll be very helicopter-like or on your roof. They’re just really going to be, “What the hell? That was annoying.” You can’t even—if you want a flying car, just put some wheels on a helicopter.

Nope.

Yes.

Yeah. There’s a fundamental momentum exchange with the air, so you must accelerate. There’s a certain—you have a mass and you have gravitational acceleration. And mass, mass times your mass times gravity must equal the mass of airflow times the acceleration of that airflow to have a neutral force. So it’s impossible to go down and then you won’t move. But if MG is greater than MA, you will go down, and if MA is greater than MG, you will go up. That’s how it works.

There is definitely no way around it.

Technically, yes, you could have a strong enough magnet, but that magnet would be so strong that you would create a lot of trouble.

I mean, you’d have to repel off of either material on the ground or in a really nutty situation, off of Earth’s gravitational field and somehow make that incredibly light. But that magnet would cause so much destruction. You’d be better off with a helicopter.

Ha ha ha. Yes. Yes, you can have a magnet road.

No, it would work. You could do that. I would not recommend it.

I would super not recommend that. Not wise, I think. No magnet roads. No, no, no. Definitely not. Definitely not. That would cause a lot of trouble.

Oh, it’ll work for sure.

Yes.

You know, it’s just a hole in the ground.

Yeah, you can go real fast. You can go as fast as you want. And then if you want to go long distances, you can just draw the air out of the tunnel, make sure it’s real straight, draw the air out of the tunnel. Yeah. So vacuum tunnel. And then depending on how fast you want to go through these wheels, or you could use air bearings, depending upon the ambient pressure in the tunnel. Or you could mag-lev if you want to go super fast.

Yes, but underground. Magnet roads.

Otherwise you’re going to really create a lot of trouble with—because there’s metal things.

If you want to go really fast underground, you would be maglev in a vacuum tunnel.

Magnetic levitation in a vacuum tunnel. Pardon?

No, I would not recommend putting any exhaust gas in the tunnel.

No, you have a pressurized pod. It’d be like a little tiny underground spaceship, basically.

It is, yes.

Yeah, they have a pump.

Yeah.

Yes.

And it’s—the air is—airplanes have it easy because essentially you can—they’re pretty leaky, but—Jesus. Yeah, but as long as they—as long as the air pump is working at a decent speed, they have backup pumps. So they’ll have three pumps or four pumps or something. And then that—then there’s—it exhausts through the outflow valve and through whatever seals are not sealing quite right. Usually the door doesn’t seal quite right on a plane, so there’s a bit of leakage around the door, but the pumps exceed the outflow rate, and then that sets the pressure in the cabin.

I have a design for a plane.

Yes.

I mean, probably. I think it is. Yeah.

And I’ve talked to friends.

Friends.

Girlfriends.

Well, I mean, the exciting thing to do would be some sort of electric vertical takeoff and landing supersonic jet of some kind.

Yes. The trick is that you have to transition to level flight and then you—the thing that you would use for vertical takeoff and landing is not suitable for high speed flight.

I’ve thought about this quite a lot. An interesting thing about an electric plane is that you want to go as high as possible, but you need a certain energy density in the battery pack because you have to overcome gravitational potential energy. Once you’ve overcome gravitational potential energy and you’re at a high altitude, the energy you use in cruise is very low. And then you can recapture a large part of the gravitational potential energy on the way down. So you really don’t need any kind of reserve fuel, if you will, because you have the energy of height, gravitational potential energy. This is a lot of energy. So once you can get high, the way to think about a plane is it’s a force balance. So the force balance, so a plane that is not accelerating is a neutral force balance. You have the force of gravity, you have the lift force of the wings. Then you’ve got the force of the whatever thrusting device, the propeller or turbine or whatever it is, and you’ve got the resistance force of the air. Now, the higher you go, the lower the air resistance is. Air density drops exponentially, but drag increases with a square. An exponential beats a square. The higher you go, the faster you will go for the same amount of energy. And at a certain altitude, you can go supersonic with less energy per mile. Quite a lot less energy per mile than an aircraft at 35,000 feet because it’s just a force balance.

It makes sense, though.

Well, I have a lot on my plate.

Electric airplane isn’t necessary right now. Electric cars are important. Solar energy is important. Stationary storage of energy is important. These things are much more important than creating electric supersonic VTOL. Also the planes, naturally, you really want that gravitational energy density for an aircraft and this is improving over time. So it’s important that we accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. That’s why electric cars, it matters whether electric cars happen sooner or later. We’re really playing a crazy game here with the atmosphere and the oceans. We’re taking vast amounts of carbon from deep underground and putting this in the atmosphere. This is crazy. We should not do this. It’s very dangerous. So we should accelerate the transition to sustainable energy. I mean the bizarre thing is that obviously we’re going to run out of oil in the long term. There’s only so much oil we can mine and burn. We must have a sustainable energy transport and energy infrastructure in the long term. So we know that’s the end point. We know that. So why run this crazy experiment where we take trillions of tons of carbon from underground and put it in the atmosphere and oceans? This is an insane experiment. It’s the dumbest experiment in human history. Why are we doing this?

The things like oil, coal, gas, it’s the easy money. It’s the easy money.

You know, it’s very difficult to put that CO2 back in the ground. It doesn’t like being in solid form. It takes a lot of energy.

No, it’s not possible. Nope, definitely not.

No, we’re not f *ed. I mean this is quite a complex question. We’re really just, the more carbon we take out of the ground and add to the atmosphere and a lot of it gets permeated into the oceans, the more dangerous it is. I don’t think right now, I think we’re okay right now. We can probably even add some more. But the momentum towards sustainable energy is too slow. There’s a vast base of industry, vast transportation system. There’s 2.5 billion cars and trucks in the world. And the new car and truck production, if it was 100% electric, that’s only about 100 million per year. So it would take, if you could snap your fingers and instantly turn all cars and trucks electric, it would still take 25 years to change the transport base to electric. Makes sense because how long does a truck, car, truck last before it goes into the junkyard and gets crushed? About 20 to 25 years.

Well, the thing that is going on right now is that there is an inherent subsidy in any oil burning device. Any power plant or car is fundamentally consuming the carbon capacity of the oceans and atmospheres, or just say atmosphere for short. So you can say, okay, there’s a certain probability of something bad happening past a certain carbon concentration in the atmosphere. And so there’s some uncertain number where if we put too much carbon in the atmosphere, things overheat, oceans warm up, ice caps melt, ocean real estate becomes a lot less valuable. Things are underwater, but it’s not clear what that number is. But it’s definitely a scientist riddle. It’s really quite, the scientific consensus is overwhelming, overwhelming. I mean, I don’t know any serious scientists, actually zero, literally zero, who don’t think that we have quite a serious climate risk that we’re facing. And so there’s fundamentally a subsidy occurring with every fossil fuel burning thing. Power plants, aircraft, car, frankly, even rockets. I mean, rockets use up, they burn fuel, but there’s just, with rockets there’s just no other way to get to orbit, unfortunately. So that’s the only way. But with cars, there’s definitely a better way with electric cars and to generate the energy. Do so with photovoltaics because we’ve got a giant thermonuclear reactor in the sky called the sun. It’s great, sort of shows up every day, very reliable. So if you can generate energy from solar panels stored with batteries, you can have energy 24 hours a day and then you can send it to the poles or near to the north with high voltage lines. Also, the northern parts of the world tend to have a lot of hydropower as well. Anyway, all fossil fuel powered things have an inherent subsidy, which is their consumption of the carbon capacity of the atmosphere and oceans. So people tend to think, why should electric vehicles have a subsidy? But they’re not taking into account that all fossil fuel burning vehicles fundamentally are subsidized by the cost, the environmental cost to Earth. But nobody’s paying for it. We are going to pay for it. Obviously in the future we will pay for it. It’s just not paid for now.

Yeah, I’ve got to scale up production. Got to make the car compelling, make it better than gasoline or diesel cars.

Yeah, you got to be able to go far enough, recharge fast.

Yeah, yeah. 600 miles.

No, we could totally make one right now that would do 600 miles. But the thing is it’s too expensive. So the car’s…

Well, you know, just have a 200 kilowatt hour battery pack and you can go 600 miles.

330 mile range. So that’s plenty of mile range.

Well, that would be for Model S, 100 kilowatt hour pack. We’ll do about 330 miles, maybe 335. But some people have hypermiled it to 500 miles.

Yeah, just go on 45 miles an hour or something.

With you pump the tires up really well and go on a smooth surface. And you can go for a long time, but you can definitely comfortably do 300 miles.

This is fine for most people. Usually 200 or 250 miles is fine. 300 miles is, you don’t even think about it really.

Well, the surface area of a car is, without making the car really blocky or having some like a G wagon. Yeah. And just having a lot of surface there where maybe solar panels fold out or something.

The E type.

Well, at the beginning of Tesla, I didn’t want to have this unfolding solar panel thing that you’d press a button and it would just unfold these solar panels and recharge your car in the parking lot. Yeah, we could do that. But I think it’s probably better to just put that on your roof.

And then it’s going to just be facing the sun all the time. Because otherwise your car could be in the shade. You know, it could be in the shade. It could be in a garage or something like that.

Yeah, I mean, I think it could recharge two miles a day or something.

They got what?

Is that with a flood in Jersey?

I didn’t watch the video, but I did see it. I stuck a picture of the…

Yeah, we made our battery waterproof, so that doesn’t happen. Smart activity.

Yeah. There was a guy in Kazakhstan that, I think it was Kazakhstan that he just boated through a tunnel, under an underwater tunnel, a flooded tunnel, and just turned the wheels to steer and pressed the accelerator and it just floated through the tunnel and he steered around the other cars. You’re like, that’s amazing. It’s on the Internet.

Oh, yeah. It’s got great traction control.

Oh, yeah. No, it’s really good.

Yeah.

It’s pretty crazy.

Yeah.

It generally won’t go sideways.

No.

It will correct itself before it goes sideways.

Yeah. This video is where you can see the car. The traction control system is very good. It makes you feel like Superman. It’s great. You feel like you can. It will make you feel like this incredible driver.

Yeah.

We do our testing on an auto ice lake in Sweden.

Yeah. And like Norway and Canada and a few other places.

New Zealand as well.

Well, electric cars have really great traction control because the reaction time is so fast. So with a gasoline car, you’ve got a lot of latency. It takes a while for the engine to react. But for electric motors, incredibly precise. That’s why you imagine if you had a printer or something, you wouldn’t have a gasoline engine printer. That would be pretty weird. Or a surgical device. It’s going to be an electric motor on the surgical device, on the printer. Gasoline engine’s going to be just chugging away. It’s not going to have the reaction time. But to an electric motor, it’s operating at the millisecond level, so it can turn on and off traction within inches of getting on the ice. Let’s say you drive a patch of ice, it’ll turn traction off and then turn it on a couple inches right after the ice, like a little patch of ice. Because in the frame of the electric motor, you’re moving incredibly slowly. You’re a snail. You’re just moving so slowly because it can see at 1,000 frames a second. And so it’s like, say, “one Mississippi.” It just thought about things a thousand times.

Yes. In milliseconds.

Yes. It is.

Yes.

F * motors.

The S, X and 3 have the lowest probability of injury of any cars ever tested by the US government. This is, yeah, but it’s pretty funny. It’s pretty crazy. We, you know, people still sue us. Like they’ll have some accident at 60 miles an hour where they twisted an ankle and they sue. Like they’d be dead in another car. They still sue us.

It is to be expected.

Tell you, I’ve got quite a lot of respect for the justice system. Judges are very smart and they see. I haven’t so far. I found judges to be very good at justice. And juries are good, too. They’re actually quite good. You know, people you read about occasional errors in the justice system. Let me tell you, most the time, they’re very good. And the guy I mentioned who fell asleep in the car and he rode over a cyclist, and that was what encouraged me to get autopilot out as soon as possible. That guy sued us.

Yes. I’m not kidding. He blamed it on the new car smell.

This is a real thing that happened.

Yes, he got a lawyer and he sued us. And the judge was like, “you, this is crazy. Stop bothering me.”

Tell you, judges are.

No.

Was this an elected judge or?

Said, you have a judge that’s actually a politician?

Two judges.

Yeah.

So I think they are elected.

Oh.

In the youth centers, builder.

I do think it’s this private prisons thing is creating a bad incentive, right? Yes, but I mean, that judge is in prison, thank God. Yes, but for people who think perhaps the justice system consists entirely of judges like that, I want to assure you this is not the case. The vast majority of judges are very good.

And they care about justice and they could have made a lot more money if they wanted to be a trial lawyer. And instead they cared about justice and they made less money because they care about justice. And that’s why they’re judges.

No, most police are very honest.

And the military personnel that I know are very honorable, ethical people, and much more honorable and ethical than the average person. That’s my impression.

And that’s not to suggest that we be complacent and assume everyone’s honest and ethical. And obviously, if somebody is given a trusted place in society, such as being a police officer or a judge and they are corrupt, then we must be extra vigilant against such situations and take action. But we should not think that this is somehow broadly descriptive of people in that profession.

Yes, yes. I mean, if you’re a prosecutor, you should not always want to win. There are times when you should, like, okay, I just should not want to win this case and then just pass on that case. Sometimes people want to win too much. That is true. I think also it becomes tough. If you’re like a district attorney, you tend to sort of see a lot of criminals and then your view of the world can get negatively, have a negative view of the world because, you know, you’re just interacting with a lot of criminals. But actually, most of society does not consist of criminals.

And I actually had this conversation at dinner several years ago with just Rio Tony. I was like, “man, it must sometimes seem pretty, pretty dark because, you know, man, there’s some terrible human beings out there.” And he was like, “yep.” And he was dealing with some case which consisted of a couple of old ladies that would run people over somehow for insurance money. It was rough. I was like, “wow, that’s pretty rough.” It’s hard to maintain faith in humanity if you’re a district attorney. But, you know, it’s only a few percent of society that are actually bad. And then if you go to the worst, say 0.1% of society or the worst, one in a thousand, one in a million. You know, like, how bad is the millionth worst person in the United States? Pretty damn bad. Like damn evil. Like the millionth. Like the millionth. Well, one in a million of evil is so evil, people cannot even conceive of it. But there’s 330 million people in the United States, so that’s 330 people out there somewhere. By the same token, there’s also 330 people who are incredible angels and unbelievably good human beings.

On the other side.

Yes.

It is. It is a very dangerous pattern. I really think, you know, people should give other people the benefit of the doubt and assume that they’re good until proven otherwise. And I think really most people are actually pretty good people. Nobody’s perfect.

Yeah.

I mean, here are these weapons. But how many times, nobody’s presumably tried to murder you and you’re nobody yet. Yes. Nobody’s like. But the sword’s right there.

So it’ll liven things up for sure. Guaranteed to make any party better.

Yeah.

Yes. Don’t make somebody angry. Don’t know what’s going to happen.

Better off.

Yeah, yeah. You know, we got a big test site in central Texas near Waco. Yeah. SpaceX in McGregor about 15 minutes away from Waco.

Okay, cool. Yeah, we have lots of fire, loud explosions and things. And people, they’re cool with it.

They’re very supportive.

Yeah, it’s dangerous.

It’s free.

Yeah, yeah. I kind of like Texas, actually.

Yeah, exactly.

Most people are good.

I think you should give people the benefit of the doubt. For sure.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Ah, sure. Thank you.

Yeah, that’s a good question. You know, I wish politicians were better at science. That would help a lot.

Yes.

There isn’t, actually, you know, they’re pretty good at science in China, I have to say. Yeah. The mayor of Beijing has, I believe, an environmental engineering degree and the deputy mayor has a physics degree. I met them. And the mayor of Shanghai is really smart.

Oh, I like phones. I don’t know. I don’t know.

Well, I think, like, I guess if you have like, top secret stuff, then you want to be pretty careful about what hardware you use. But, you know, like, most people do not have top secret stuff and like, nobody really cares what porn you watch. Or it’s like nobody actually cares.

National spy agencies do not give a rat’s ass what porn you watch. They do not care. So what secrets does a national spy agency have to learn from the average citizen? Nothing.

Not really. I don’t think we should worry too much about Huawei phones. You know, maybe our national security agencies shouldn’t have Huawei phones. Maybe that’s a question mark. But I think for the average citizen it doesn’t matter. They’re not—I’m pretty sure the Chinese government does not care about the goings on of the average American citizen.

Do people want privacy? Because they seem to put everything on the Internet.

I think we really need to worry about security in that situation. For sure. That’s like a security we paramount, sure.

I mean, I think the things that we think are important to keep private right now we probably will not think are important.

I mean, I think like I don’t know, maybe it’s like embarrassing stuff.

But there’s actually like, I think people, there’s like not that much that’s kept private that people—that is actually relevant. That people, other people actually care about. You think other people care about it, but they don’t really care about it and certainly governments don’t.

She seems to be doing okay.

Yeah. I mean, I’m sure she’s like not happy about it, but she’s clearly doing fine.

I think the things that we think are important now will probably not be important in the future, but there will be things that are important. What will be more important things? There might be some war of ideas potentially. I don’t think Darwin’s going away.

Darwin’s going to be there. Darwin will be there forever.

It would just be a different arena. Different arena.

Different arena. Darwin’s not going away.

Well, it’s quite hard to run companies.

Especially car companies. I have to say. It’s quite challenging.

Yes.

SpaceX is no walk in the park, but a car company. It’s very difficult to keep a car company alive. It’s very difficult. You know, there’s only two car companies in the history of American car companies that haven’t gone bankrupt. And that’s Ford and Tesla. That’s it. Yeah.

Yeah, yeah.

Same with Tesla. We barely survived.

Very close. We—2008 is not a good time to be a car company, especially a startup car company and especially an electric car company. That was like stupidity squared.

Yeah, we had like use a highly modified Elise chassis. The body was all completely different, by the way. That was a super dumb strategy that we actually did.

It was based on two false premises. One false premise was that we’d be able to cheaply convert the Lotus Elise and use that as a car platform and that we would be able to use technology from this little company called AC propulsion for the electric drivetrain and the battery. Problem is the AC propulsion technology did not work in production and we ended up using none of it in the long term. None of it. We had to redesign everything. And then once you add a battery pack, an electric motor to the car, it got heavier, it got 30% heavier. Invalidated the entire structure, all the crash structure, everything had to be redone. Nothing like—I think it had less than 7% of the parts were common with any other device, including cars or anything less than 7%.

Yeah, even steering wheel. The steering wheel was—I think the steering wheel was almost the same. Yes. The windscreen different? No, I think the windscreen was the same.

I think we were able to keep—

So that’s basically every body panel was different. The entire structure was different. We couldn’t use the HVAC. The HVAC system, the air conditioner was a belt driven air conditioner. So now we needed something that was electrically driven. We needed a new AC compressor and—

Yeah. We needed a small, highly efficient air conditioning system that fit in a tiny car and was electrically powered, not belt driven. It was very difficult.

I think it was about 2,700 pounds. It’s still very well, depending on British version, 2,650 to 2,750 pounds, something like that.

It was about 50. Well, there were different versions of the car. So it was about 55 on the rear. It was rear bias.

Well, I mean, yeah, the 911, I think the joke is like they managed to do it despite Newton not being on their side. Yeah. If you’re fighting Newton, it’s very difficult. Well, like you’ve got this. The moments of inertia on a 911 don’t make any sense.

You don’t want to hang the engine off the ass. This is not a wise move.

The problem with something that’s where the engine is mounted over the rear axle or off the rear axle towards the rear, is that your polar moment of inertia is fundamentally screwed. You cannot solve this. It’s unsolvable. You’re screwed. Polar moment of inertia, you’re screwed.

Like essentially if you spun the car like a top. That’s your polar moment of inertia. You’re just. I promise I wouldn’t swear on this show, by the way.

To who? So it’s my friend.

A friend.

Yes, tell me.

I’ll swear in private. Swear up a storm.

Yeah. But anyway, like the Porsche. It’s kind of incredible how well Porsche handles given that. It’s the physics. The moments of inertia are so messed up. To actually still make it work well is incredible.

The car I had before Tesla was a 911.

Yeah, 997.

Yeah. I mean, particularly on the Porsche turbo when they had the variable vanes. The turbo. And you didn’t have the turbo lag. That was great. That was really great. The turbo lag was like you floor it, phone home, call your mom. The older one, about an hour later.

It had a good feel to it. Yeah, I agree.

I mean, you should try Model S P100D. It’ll blow your mind or your skull.

Model S P100D.

It will blow your mind out of your skull.

How far can I. About 300 miles.

You’ll never notice the battery.

Never.

No, it’s super easy. It’s like a dryer plug. It’s like a dryer outlet.

Yeah, yeah, I have it on my roof right now, actually. I’m just trying it out. It’s like. It. The thing is, it takes a while to test roof stuff because roofs have to last a long time. So, like, you want your roof to last, like, at least 30 years.

So there’s two versions. There’s like the solar panels you put on a roof. So, like, depends on whether your roof’s new or old. So if your roof’s new, you don’t want to replace the roof. You want to put, like, solar panels on the roof, right? So that’s like retrofit. And then we’re trying to make the retrofit panels look real nice. But then the new product we’re coming out with is if you have a roof that’s either you’re building a house or you’re going to replace your roof anyway, then make the tiles have solar cells embedded in the tiles. And then it’s quite a tricky thing because you want to not see the solar cell behind the glass tile. So you have to really work with the glass and the various coatings and layers so that you don’t see the solar cell behind the glass. Otherwise it doesn’t look right.

So it’s really tricky.

See, like if you look closely, you can see, if you zoom in, like, you can see the. You can see the cell, but if you zoom out, you don’t see the cell. Right.

That’s hard. That’s really hard because you have to have sunlight go through.

But when it gets reflected back out, it doesn’t. It hides the fact that there’s a cell there.

Well, we have, I think those on.

Yes.

Yeah.

That one’s hard.

I like that. That’s French slate.

Does it all actually work? I believe you.

It depends on your energy, on how expensive expenditure. Yeah, yeah. So generally, yes, I would say it’s probably for most it’s going to vary, but anywhere from more than you need to, maybe half, like call it half to 1.5 of the energy that you need depending on how much roof you have relative to living space and how.

TV is no problem. Air conditioning, air conditioning is the problem. If you have an efficient air conditioner and you don’t. And depending on how like, are you air conditioning rooms when they don’t need to be air conditioned, which is very common because it’s a pain in the neck. You know, it’s like programming a VCR. It’s like it’s just the blinking 12. So people are just like, hell with that. I’m just going to make it this temperature all day long.

Right? Yeah. It should predict when you’re going to be home and then cool the room. The rooms that you’re likely to use with a little bit of intelligence. We’re not talking about, like genius home here we’re just talking like elementary basic stuff, you know, like if you could hook that into the car, like it knows you’re coming home. Like there’s no point in cooling the home, keeping the home really cool when you’re not there, but it can tell that you’re coming home. It’s going to cool it to the right temperature.

Yeah, yeah, we do. But we need to hook it into air conditioning to really make the air conditioning work.

Cannot answer questions about future potential.

That would be an interesting idea.

It’s able to fully power that way.

Yeah, well, you know, like there’s the self winding watches where it’s just got a weight in the watch and as you move your wrist, the weight moves from one side to the other and it winds the watch up. That’s a pretty cool thing.

Yeah, you could do the same thing and create a little charger that’s based on wrist movement. It really depends on how much energy your watch uses.

It seems like they should recalibrate that thing.

Okay. It seems like they should really recalibrate that because if it’s always fast, you could just delete those minutes.

It’s kind of amazing that you can keep time mechanically on a wristwatch with these tiny little gears.

I like gears.

Yeah, I think they’re beautiful.

Yeah, I agree.

No, I agree. It’s beautiful. Yeah. Love it.

Yes.

No.

I used to have a watch.

My phone tells the time.

That’s correct. Living on the edge. Living on the edge without a case.

That’s right.

Okay.

Wow.

Right.

Does it do anything? It seems open. It just opens a hole. Get stored, store things in there.

So is that a joint or is it a cigar?

Okay.

Okay, so it’s like posh pot tobacco. Posh.

Yeah, I think I tried one once.

I mean, it’s legal, right? It’s totally legal. Okay.

That’s all it is.

Plus whiskey. Ha ha. Exactly.

Alcohol is a drug. It’s been grandfathered in.

Well, I mean, our cars break. Automatically break? Yeah, yeah.

Yes.

Well, the wheels work pretty well. The wheels do, yeah. Yeah, they work pretty well. Decelerated at 1.1 to 1.2 Gs, that kind of thing.

Yeah, I think it’d be sort of like it was a time of transition where there were horses and gasoline cars on the road at the same time. Must have been pretty weird.

Yeah. I mean, horses were tricky. You know, back in Manhattan had like 300,000 horses. You figure like a horse lives 15 years, got 20,000 horses dropping dead every day or every year. I should say every year it’s 20,000 horses. If there’s 300,000 horses in 15 year lifespan.

Yeah, yeah. It’s a lot of dead horses. And you need a horse to move the horse. Right. And they’ll probably get pretty freaked out if they have to move a dead horse.

Yeah. That’d be like pretty weird.

Why am I dragging this horse around? And I’m a horse.

Yeah.

This is a great clock. Yeah.

Sure.

I like weird things like this.

What is this?

Yeah. Yeah.

My study is filled with weird devices.

Cool.

All right, I’ll take one.

Okay?

Oh, yeah, sure.

It more than once, results in very rapid technology innovation, that’s for sure.

Yeah, that’s true.

And then things would advance very quickly, right?

Hmm. I don’t think—I don’t think you’d necessarily want to be me. Well, what’s the worst part about it? I don’t think people would like it that much.

It’s very hard to turn it off.

Might sound great if it’s turned on, but what if it doesn’t turn off?

No, I’m getting text messages from friends saying, “What the hell are you doing smoking weed?”

It’s legal.

It’s not—you know, I’m not a regular smoker of weed.

Almost never. I mean, I don’t actually notice any effect.

I doubt that I would say that.

No, you know, I know a lot of people like weed, and that’s fine, but I don’t find that it is very good for productivity for you, not for me.

Right.

Yeah, it’s more like the opposite of a cup of coffee. It’s like a cup of coffee in reverse.

Yeah.

I like to get things done, like to be useful. That is one of the hardest things to do is to be useful.

Doing something useful for other people that I like doing.

Yes.

Why it doesn’t stop? I don’t know what would happen if I got into a sensory deprivation tank. Let’s try it. Sounds concerning. It’s like running the engine with no resistance, that seems.

Maybe it’s fine. I don’t know. I’ll try it. I’ll try it.

Yes.

I mean, you just sort of sit there and be quiet and then repeat some mantra which acts as a focal point. It does still the mind, it distill the mind, but I don’t find myself drawn to it frequently.

It’s like a never ending explosion.

Never ending explosion.

Yes.

Yeah.

Yeah, all the time.

I think when I was, I don’t know, five or six or something, I thought I was insane.

Because it was clear that other people did not. Their mind wasn’t exploding with ideas all the time.

No, it was just strange. It was like, hmm, I’m strange. That was my conclusion. I’m strange.

I hope they wouldn’t find out because they might like put me away or something.

Yes.

Yeah. I knew they put people away. What if they put me away?

Yes.

Yeah.

But, you know, I was only like five or six.

Right, I agree.

Well, that would be very, very weird.

Yeah, it’d be pretty weird. I agree. Real weird. Definitely.

What if there were a million Joe Rogans?

Yeah. I mean, but my goal is try to do useful things. Try to maximize the probability the future is good. Make the future exciting. Something you look forward to, you know. With Tesla, we’re trying to make things that people love, you know, it’s like, not how many things can you buy that you really love, that really give you joy? So rare. So rare. I wish there were more things. That’s what we try to do. Just make things that somebody loves.

Yeah.

What are the set of things that can be done to make the future better? I think a future where we are a space faring civilization and out there among the stars. This is very exciting. This makes me look forward to a future. This makes me want that future, you know, the things there needs to be. Things that make you look forward to waking up in the morning, you wake up in the morning, you look forward to the day, look forward to the future. A future where we are a space faring civilization and out there among the stars. I think that’s very exciting. That is a thing we want. Whereas if you knew we would not be a spacefaring civilization, but forever confined to Earth, this would not be a good future. That would be very sad. I think it would be sad.

Well, it’s probably if you’re saying when does the sun boil the oceans?

About 500 million years.

No, I just think like if there are two futurists and one futurists who are out there among the stars and the things we read about and see in science fiction movies, the good ones, are true. We have these starships and we’re going to see what other planets are like. We’re a multi planet species and the scope and scale of consciousness is expanded across many civilizations and many planets and many star systems. This is a great future. This is a wonderful thing to me and that’s what we should strive for.

Yes.

No.

We can definitely go to the moon and Mars.

Do you think we will go to the asteroid belt and we can go to the moons of Jupiter, Saturn, we can even get to Pluto.

Great, that’d be great. It’s potent, there’s magical.

Be easy, but yes.

You could just warm it up.

Could be a multi planet species.

Multi planet species. That’s what we want.

I’m pro human.

I love humanity. I think it’s great.

I mean, you know, strangely, I think a lot of people don’t like humanity and see it as blight, but I do not.

This may sound corny, it does sound corny. But love is the answer.

Yep.

Sure.

Wouldn’t hurt to have more love in the world.

Yeah, we should do that.

Really?

No, but probably spend more time with your friends and less time on social media.

I think probably something like that. Yeah.

I mean the only thing I’ve kept is Twitter because I kind of need some means of getting a message out. That’s about it. So far, so good.

Yeah.

Good question.

Right.

It’s mostly, I think it’s on balance, more good than bad, but there’s definitely some bad.

Hopefully the good outweighs the bad.

Yeah.

I mean, there’s a lot of negativity on Twitter.

I mean, there are a vast number of negative comments. For the vast majority, I just ignore them. The vast majority. Every now and again, you’re drawn in. It’s not good.

Make mistakes.

Make some mistakes.

Yeah, I’m not sure why people think that anyone would think that deleting a tweet makes it go away. It’s like, hello, been on the Internet for a while.

That sh you wrote underneath. It’s on your permanent record.

Like high school. “We’ll put this on your permanent record.”

Oh, yeah, yeah.

Yeah. I mean, it’s way easier to be mean on social media than it is to be mean in person.

Way easier. Yeah.

It’s cheating.

Yes.

Most people.

Yes.

Yeah, likewise.

It’s been an honor. Thank you for having me.

It’s not bad.

Exactly.

Cheers.

No, I think, you know, I think people should be nicer to each other and give people—and give more credit to others and don’t assume that they’re mean until you know they’re actually mean. You know, just—it’s easy to demonize people. You’re usually wrong about it. People are nicer than you think. Give people more credit.

You’re welcome.

Thank you, Elon. Thank you.

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Well, we didn’t put a lot of time into the flamethrower. This was an off-the-cuff thing. So it’s sort of a hobby company called the Boring Company, which started out as a joke and we decided to make it real and dig a tunnel. And then other people asked us to dig tunnels and so we said yes in a few cases. And then we have a merchandise section that only has one piece of merchandise at a time. And we started off with a cap and there was only one thing. It was just boringcompany.com cap or hat. That’s it. And then we sold the hats, limited edition. It just said the Boring Company. And then I’m a big fan of Spaceballs the movie. And in Spaceballs, Yogurt goes through the merchandising section and they have a flamethrower in the merchandising section of Spaceballs. And “the kids love that one.” That’s the line when he pulls out the flamethrower. It’s like, we should do a flamethrower. So we did.-1:59:59
Yeah. It’s a terrible idea. Terrible. Shouldn’t buy one. I said don’t buy this flamethrower. Don’t buy it. Don’t buy it. That’s what I said. But still people bought it. There’s nothing I can do to stop them.-1:59:59
It’s dangerous, it’s wrong. Don’t buy it. Still, people bought it. I couldn’t stop them.-1:59:59
20,000. And they’re all gone in three, I think four days. We sold out in four days.-1:59:59
Yes. I said we would do 20. We did 50,000 hats and that was a million dollars. And okay, well, we’ll sell something for 10 million. And that was 20,000 flamethrowers at $500 each. They went fast.-1:59:59
I mean, I didn’t spend much time on this flamethrower. I mean, to be totally frank, it’s actually just a roofing torch with an air rifle cover. It’s not a real flamethrower, which is—-1:59:59
That’s why we were very clear this is not actually a flamethrower. And also we were told that various countries would ban shipping of it, but they would ban flamethrowers. So we very—to solve this problem for all the customs agencies, we labeled it “not a flamethrower.”-1:59:59
I mean, I’m not saying it’s going to be successful or, you know, I mean, it’s not like asserting that it’s going to be successful. But so far, I’ve lived in LA for 16 years and the traffic has always been terrible. And so I don’t see any other ideas for improving the traffic. So in desperation, we’re going to dig a tunnel and maybe that tunnel will be successful and maybe it won’t.-1:59:59
Yeah, it’s in LA because I mostly live in LA. That’s the reason. It’s a terrible place to dig tunnels. This is one of the worst places to dig tunnels because, mostly because of the paperwork. People think it’s, “what about seismic?” It’s actually, tunnels are very safe in earthquakes.-1:59:59
Earthquakes are essentially a surface phenomenon. It’s waves on the ocean. So if there’s a storm, you want to be in a submarine. So being in a tunnel is being in a submarine. Now, the way the tunnel is constructed is it’s constructed out of these interlocking segments, kind of a snake. It’s sort of a snake exoskeleton with double seals. And so even when the ground moves, the tunnel actually is able to shift along with the ground like an underground snake. And it doesn’t crack or break. And it’s extremely unlikely that both seals would be broken. And it’s capable of taking 5 atmospheres of pressure. It’s waterproof, methane proof, or gas proof of any kind, and meets all California seismic requirements.-1:59:59
Yeah. So there were some engineers from SpaceX who thought it would be cool to do this. And the guy who runs it day to day, Steve Davis—he’s a longtime SpaceX engineer. He’s great. So Steve was, “I’d like to help make this happen.” I was, “cool.” So we started off with digging a hole in the ground. He’s got a permit for a pit, big pit, and just dug a big pit.-1:59:59
Nice. Fill out this form. That’s it. Yeah, it was a pit in our parking lot.-1:59:59
And now, you know, there’s not really—you know, don’t really care about the existential nature of a pit. You just say, “I want a pit.”-1:59:59
And saw a hole in the ground. So then we got the permit for the pit and we dug the pit and we dug it in, I don’t know, three days. Two, three days, actually. I think 48 hours, something that. Because Eric Garcetti was coming by for the Hyperloop. He was going to attend the Hyperloop competition, which is a student competition we have for who can make the fastest pod in the Hyperloop. And he was coming. The finals were going to be on Sunday afternoon. And so Eric was coming by on Sunday afternoon. He was, you know, “we should take this pit and then show Eric.” So we—this was Friday morning and then—yeah. So it was about a little over 40 hours later we dug the pit. It was 24/7. Oh, 24, 48 straight hours, something that. And dug this big pit. And we showed Eric the pit. It’s, obviously it’s just a pit, but, hey, hole in the ground is better than no hole in the ground.-1:59:59
Nothing wrong with a hole in the ground. People dig holes in the ground all the time.-1:59:59
You know, I do, basically—I think people don’t totally understand what I do with my time. They think I’m a business guy or something that. My Wikipedia page says “business magnate.”-1:59:59
Business Magnet. Can someone please change my Wikipedia page to Magnet?-1:59:59
So somebody has to be able to unlock it and change it to Magnet.-1:59:59
I want to be a magnet. I do engineering and manufacturing and that kind of thing. That’s 80% more of my time ideas.-1:59:59
Structural, mechanical, electrical, software, user interface engineering, aerospace engineering.-1:59:59
Not bad for a human. But I think we will not be able to hold a candle to AI.-1:59:59
Probably not wise for retribution. Their memory is very good.-1:59:59
Yes. It’s less of a worry than it used to be, mostly due to taking more of a fatalistic attitude.-1:59:59
Pretty much. No, it’s not necessarily bad. It’s just, it’s definitely going to be outside of human control.-1:59:59
Yes, it’s not necessarily bad. It’s just outside of human control. Now the thing that’s going to be tricky here is that it’s going to be very tempting to use AI as a weapon. It’s going to be very tempting. In fact, it will be used as a weapon. So the on-ramp to serious AI, the danger is going to be more humans using it against each other. I think most likely that will be the danger.-1:59:59
Well, I mean you could argue that any group of people, like a company, is essentially a cybernetic collective of people and machines. That’s what a company is. And then there are different levels of complexity in the way these companies are formed. And then there’s this sort of collective AI in the Google search. You know, where we’re all sort of plugged in as nodes on the network, like leaves on a big tree. And we’re all feeding this network with questions and answers. We’re all collectively programming the AI. And Google, plus the older humans that connect to it, are one giant cybernetic collective. This is also true of Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and all these social networks. They’re giant cybernetic collectors.-1:59:59
Yes, I made this comment some years ago, but it feels like we are the biological bootloader for AI. Effectively, we are building it and then we’re building progressively greater intelligence and the percentage of intelligence that is not human is increasing and eventually we will represent a very small percentage of intelligence. But the AI isn’t formed strangely by the human limbic system. It is in large part our ID writ large.-1:59:59
We mention all those things, the sort of primal drives. There’s all the things that we like, add hate and fear. They’re all there on the Internet. They’re a projection of our limbic system.-1:59:59
Yeah. This is in some measure, like the success of these online systems is sort of a function of how much limbic resonance they’re able to achieve with people. The more limbic resonance, the more engagement.-1:59:59
Yes. Things are getting more and more connected. They’re at this point constrained by bandwidth. Our input output is slow, particularly output. Output got worse with thumbs. You know, we used to have input with 10 fingers, now we have thumbs. But images are just, are also, they’re a way of communicating at high bandwidth. You take pictures and you send pictures to people that communicates far more information than you can communicate with your thumbs.-1:59:59
I tried to convince people to slow down. Slow down AI, to regulate AI. This was futile. I tried for years.-1:59:59
Maybe they will. So far they haven’t. I think people don’t like, normally the way that regulations work is very slow, very slow indeed. So usually it will be something, some new technology. It will cause damage or death. There will be an outcry, there will be investigation, years will pass. There will be some sort of insights committee, there will be rulemaking, then there will be oversight, eventually regulations. This all takes many years. This is the normal course of things. If you look at say automotive regulations, how long did it take for seat belts to be implemented, to be required? You know, the auto industry fought seat belts, I think for more than a decade, successfully fought any regulations on seat belts. Even though the numbers were extremely obvious. If you had a seatbelt on, you would be far less likely to die or be seriously injured. It was unequivocal. And the industry fought this for years, successfully. Eventually, after many, many people died, regulators insisted on seat belts. This time frame is not relevant to AI. You can’t take 10 years from the point at which it’s dangerous. It’s too late.-1:59:59
Out of control? Yeah. People call it the singularity and that’s probably a good way to think about it. It’s a singularity. It’s hard to predict like a black hole, what happens past the event horizon.-1:59:59
It could be terrible and it could be great. It’s not clear. But one thing is for sure, we will not control it.-1:59:59
Well, that’s the scenario. The merge scenario with AI is the one that seems like probably the best for us. Yes. If you can’t beat it, join it.-1:59:59
You know, so from a long term existential standpoint, that’s like the purpose of Neuralink, is to create a high bandwidth interface to the brain such that we can be symbiotic with AI because we have a bandwidth problem. You just can’t communicate through your fingers, it’s too slow.-1:59:59
I think we’ll have something interesting to announce in a few months that’s at least an order of magnitude better than anything else, I think. Better than probably anyone thinks is possible.-1:59:59
I think best case scenario we effectively merge with AI, where AI serves as a tertiary cognition layer where we’ve got the limbic system, kind of the primitive brain. Essentially you’ve got the cortex, so you’re currently in a symbiotic relationship. Your cortex and limbic system are in a symbiotic relationship. And generally people like their cortex and they like their limbic system. I haven’t met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or delete their cortex. Everybody seems to like both. And the cortex is mostly in service to the limbic system. People may think that the thinking part of themselves is in charge, but it’s mostly their limbic system that’s in charge. And the cortex is trying to make the limbic system happy. That’s what most of that computing power is oriented towards. How can I make the limbic system happy? That’s what I was trying to do. Now, if we do have a third layer, which is the AI extension of yourself, that is also symbiotic and there’s enough bandwidth between the cortex and the AI extension of yourself, such that the AI doesn’t de facto separate, then that could be a good outcome. That could be quite a positive outcome for the future.-1:59:59
Yes, it will enable anyone who wants to have superhuman cognition. Anyone who wants. This is not a matter of earning power, because your earning power would be vastly greater after you do it. So it’s just like anyone who wants can just do it in theory. That’s the theory. And if that’s the case, then, and let’s say billions of people do it, then the outcome for humanity will be the sum of human will, the sum of billions of people’s desire for the future.-1:59:59
It would be difficult to really appreciate the difference. It’s kind of like, how much smarter are you with a phone or computer than without? You’re vastly smarter, actually. You can answer any question if you’re connected to the Internet. You can answer any question pretty much instantly. Any calculation that your phone’s memory is essentially perfect. You can remember flawlessly. Your phone can remember videos, pictures, everything perfectly. Your phone is already an extension of you. You’re already a cyborg. You don’t even—well, most people don’t realize they are already a cyborg. That phone is an extension of yourself. It’s just that the data rate, the rate at which the communication rate between you and the cybernetic extension of yourself, that is your phone and computer is slow. It’s very slow. And that’s like a tiny straw of information flow between your biological self and your digital self. And we need to make that tiny straw, like a giant river. Huge high bandwidth interface. It’s an interface problem. Data rate problem. Solve the data rate problem. Then I think we hang on to human machine symbiosis through the long term. And then people may decide that they want to retain their biological self or not. I think they’ll probably choose to retain their biological self versus some sort of—-1:59:59

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